Transcript Applying NHC Mini-MEOWs to SERFC Forecast Operations during Hurricane Irene OR

Applying NHC Mini-MEOWs to
SERFC Forecast Operations
during Hurricane Irene
OR
Extending SERFC water level forecasts
to the sea (and using NHC surge
products to do so!)
John Schmidt
SERFC Development & Operations
Hydrologist
NOAA Hurricane Conference
November 30, 2011
Hurricane Irene Adv. 17 “R2”
PGVN7
Hurricane Irene Adv. 17 “R2”
SSTG Simulation
Hurricane Irene Adv. 17 “R2”
SQIN Simulation
PGVN7
GFS-derived Extratropical Storm Surge
Tidal Boundary Condition Cobbling
Longest to Shortest
Lead Time (& Skill?)
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Astronomical
7-day Anomaly
GFS ETSS
Mini-MEOW/PSurge
SLOSH
Major
Moderate
Minor
Action