Transcript Mobile Market in Korea Sung-Woon Cho, Ph. D. KOREA INFORMATION STRATEGY

Mobile Market in Korea
Sung-Woon Cho, Ph. D.
Telecommunications and Broadcasting Research Division
KOREA INFORMATION STRATEGY
DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE
Contents
Ⅰ
Telecommunication Market Overview
II
Current Status of Mobile Market
III
Wireless Broadband Internet
IV Conclusion
1
Snapshot
Overview
Unit : 10 Thousand Subscriber
IT Industry Production :
241.1 Billion USD (2004)
3,500
3,000
75%
2,500
77%
49.3%
76.6%
of
of
of
population population households
2,000
1,500
of
population
80.5%
of
Subscriber
IT Industry Growth Rate :
17.5% (2004)
IT Equipment Production:
3rd Largest Country
(US(1st), Japan(2nd))
1,000
500
IT Equipment export :
74.2 Billion USD (2004)
0
2
Market Drivers
Overview
Broadband Internet
Mobile Communication Service
Unit : Thousands
Unit : Thousands
12,000
40,000
35,000
10,000
30,000
8,000
25,000
6,000
9,864
4,000
10,382
20,000
11,287
10,846
15,000
7,164
10,000
29,046
34,262
34,905
2003
2004
37,207
4,299
2,000
0
23,443
26,816
32,342
5,000
576
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
0
2005
1999
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
576
4,299
7,164
9,864
10,382
10,846
11,287
Subscribers
Growth rate
646%
67%
38%
5%
4%
4%
Growth rate
Household
penetration
29%
48%
65%
68%
70%
71%
Subscribers
2000
2001
2002
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
23,443
26,816
29,046
32,342
34,262
34,905
37,207
14%
8%
11%
6%
2%
7%
40,000
3
2005
35,000
30,000
To the Next Step
Overview
Broadband Wireless Internet Anytime, Anywhere
Target market : Broadband wireless Internet
Complementing mobility to broadband wireless LAN
Lower cost & higher data speed than the mobile Internet
Voice
Wired Telephone
Mobile Phone
Wired
Wireless
Broadband Internet
(ADSL, VDSL, HFC)
Wireless
LAN
Data
4
WiBro / HSDPA
Broadband Wireless
Internet
To the Next Step
Overview
Trends in Wireless Telecommunication
Data speed improvement, more needs on interworking technology among wireless networks
 IMT-2000(UMTS) : EVDO, R4
EVDV, R5, R6
 Wireless LAN : IEEE 802.11a/g
802.11n
Evolution direction depends on the market demands, technology evolution
 Data speed / Mobility improvement (VoIP)
Mobility
250km/h
60km/h
WCDMA
1xEV-DO
3G
?
CDMA2000
2G
Fixed
?
WiBro
Walking Speed
4G
Wireless LAN
0.1M
1M
2M
10M
30M
5
100M
1G
Data Rate
bps
Ⅰ
Telecommunication Market Overview
II
Current Status of Mobile Market
III
Wireless Broadband Internet
IV Conclusion
6
Milestones
Technology
CDMA
IS-95
AMPS
84.5
Market
Current Status
96.1
Entry of 3
PCS
operators
97.10 98.6
IS-95A
IS-95B
CDMA
2000 1x
99.8 99.10 00.10 01.5
10 mil.
20 mil.
subscribers
subscribers
02.1
KTF,
Hansol
PCS M&A
7
CDMA
2000
EV-DO
02.2
WCDMA
02.3 03.12 05.10
KTF-KTI,
SKT-STI
M&A
HSDPA
WiBro
06
30 mil.
38 mil.
subscribers
subscribers
Market Situation
Current Status
M/S in Mobile Comm. Market
Market Shares
Total M/S (2001~2005. 8)
Total M/S (2001~2005.8)
Unit : %, Thousands
24,435
30,762
33,029
35,624
37,787
Unit : %, Thousands
100%
17%
14%
15%
16%
17%
33%
32%
32%
32%
53%
54%
52%
51%
6,240 17%
80%
60%
38%
Total M/S (2005.8)
12,270
19,276
51%
32%
40%
20%
45%
SKT
KTF
LGT
CDMA 2000 M/S (2005.8)
0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Unit : %, Thousands
5,467 16%
Wireless
Internet
M/S (2002~2004)
Wireless Internet
M/S(2002-2004)
Unit : %, Thousands
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
29,085
31,431
35,016
14%
13%
16%
35%
33%
33%
51%
54%
51%
2002
2003
2004
11,538
52%
33%
SKT
8
18,148
KTF
LGT
Market Situation
Current Status
Sales
Data Service Sales
Unit : Million USD
Unit : Million USD
12,000
2000
9,704
9,520
10,000
8,635
1600
1,320
1400
8,000
6,227
1200
6,000
4,208
3,960
1000
4,589
4,201
1,764
2,000
600
2,285
1,738
1,676
400
200
2001
2001
2002
2002
SKT
2001
Total
Growth
rate
KTF
2003
2003
SKT KTF LGT
731
800
4,000
0
1,823
1800
LGT
0
2004
2004
443
386
260
208
295
2001
2001
2002
2002
SKT
KTF
SKT
2002
2003
2004
11,951
14,519
15,459
16,578
-
21.5%
6.5%
7.2%
9
Total
Data/
Total
Growth
rate
158
121
109
102
KTF
2003
2003
2004
2004
LGT
LGT
2001
2002
2003
2004
570
1,226
1,736
2,424
4.8%
8.4%
11.2%
14.6%
-
115%
42%
40%
3G Launching
Current Status
Cellular &
PCS band
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO
Subscribers
(2005. 8)
SKT
2000. 10
2002. 2
18,148,000
KTF
2001. 5
2002. 5
11,538,000
LGT
2001. 5
2002. 2/2
5,467,000
2GHz Band
Standard
License
Service Launching
SKT
WCDMA
2001. 12
2003. 12. 29
KTF
WCDMA
2001. 12
2003. 12. 29
LGT
CDMA2000
2002. 5
-
10
Ⅰ
Telecommunication Market Overview
II
Current Status of Mobile Market
III
Wireless Broadband Internet
IV Conclusion
11
Wireless Broadband
Internet
Barriers to Overcome
Barriers to Overcome
Mobile Internet : Limitations on data speed and tariff level
 Main usage : Character and melody, etc.
Wireless LAN : Limitations on the cell-coverage and portability (Hot-spot)
 The convenient use for laptop computer users
New wireless Internet service with high speed and mobility is needed at reasonable prices
Needs in the Wireless Internet Contents
Wireless Internet Content Usage
• Character/Melody
32.8 %
• Multimedia Contents
49.7 %
• Games
18.0 %
• File Transfer/Download
49.5 %
• E-mail
11.8 %
• E-Mail
34.9 %
• LBS
6.3 %
• LBS
28.3 %
• Multimedia Contents
6.1 %
• Reservation
25.5 %
• News
4.9 %
• Games
24.4 %
• Broadcasting/Sports
• Financial Service
4.5 %
• Shopping/Advertisement
• Financial Service
18.4 %
3.9 %
12
14.0 %
Wireless Broadband
Internet
WCDMA
Milestones for Commercialization
Government announced the licensing rules of 2GHz IMT-2000 : July 2000
KTICOM and SKIMT received 3G (WCDMA) licenses : Dec. 2000
Government announced the detailed policies of IMT-2000 : June 2003
 WCDMA : Service launch by 2003, city areas by 2006
 CDMA2000 : Service launch by June 2006
Commercial service launch in Seoul metropolitan area : Dec. 2003
HSDPA service launch : 2006
WCDMA Launch
2001. 10
Japan
2003. 5
Austria
2003. 12
Korea
2004
France, Portugal,
Spain, Germany
2004
Taiwan, Singapore,
Hong Kong, Australia
2003. 3
UK, Italy, Sweden
13
Wireless Broadband
Internet
WCDMA
Terminals
Samsung W120 : WCDMA + CDMA2000 1x EV-DO
 World first asynchronous → synchronous handover
 Data rate (Max) : Asynchronous - 384Kbps, Synchronous - 2.4Mbps
Samsung & LG HSDPA : The first half in 2006
 Seoul and metropolitan areas : R3(KTF), R4(SKT) → HSDPA
Service Positioning
File
Transfer
High
D
A
T
A 512
kbps
R
A
T
E Low
Shopping / Advertisement
Community
Online Board
VOD/MOD
Web Surfing
Ring Tone
Background Image
WCDMA
Killer Contents
Location information
SMS
Low
WiBro
MMS Network Game
Killer Contents
E-mail Download Game
Instant Messenger(
Quality of Service
14
Video Telephony
Banking / Stock trading
High
Data Size
Wireless Broadband
Internet
WiBro
Wireless Infra
Fixed Infra
BSC
Mobile
phone
IWF
MSC
PDSN
BSC
Base Station
Internet network
IP Backbone
Internet Protocol
WiBro
Internet Protocol
IP router
AAA
HA
Gateway
Router
HA : Home Agent
Mobile
WiBro
Simple network structure based on all-IP
Division of voice and data network
 Access to IP backbone directly
 Needs for additional devices for IP linkage
Improvement on spectrum efficiency by
adopting OFDMA technology
Slow transition to all-IP network
15
Wireless Broadband
Internet
WiBro
Characteristics
Data-Only Service
 Voice service can be bundled with mobile phone
Differentiation with mobile phone : Data speed improvement
Differentiation with wireless LAN : Coverage extension (indoor → outdoor), mobility
Section
WLAN
WiBro
Mobile phone
Data rates per
subscriber
Above1 Mbps
DL 512Kbps ~ 3Mbps
UL 128Kbps ~ 1Mbps
100kbps
Mobility
Walking
Above 60km/h
Up to 250km/h
Handsets
Desktop, Laptop, PDA
Laptop, PDA, Cellular
Cellular, some PDA
Coverage
Indoor (inside of building)
Outdoor (center of city)
Indoor and outdoor
(national network)
Contents
Common, fixed internet
contents
Common, fixed Internet
contents
Exclusive contents
Tariff
Flat-rate
Volume-rate + Flat-rate
Volume-rate
16
Wireless Broadband
Internet
WiBro
Milestones for Commercialization
The finalization for WiBro technical standard: 1st half of year 2004
The grant of license: Feb. 2005
The commercial service launch: 1st half of year 2006
Government’s Policy on WiBro
3 Operators acquired the license by beauty contest (SKT, KT, Hanaro)
License fee will be 108-126 million US$ for 7 years (per license, 3% of total revenue)
WiBro MVNO will be introduced around the end of 2009 when subscribers reach 5 million
2004 1st Half 2004 2nd Half 2005 1st Half 2005 2nd Half 2006 1st Half
Technology
Technical
Standard
(June 2004 )
Development of Commercial System
Grant of
License
(Feb. 2005 )
Service
Schedule
17
Trial Service
in APEC
(Nov. 2005)
Field
Trial
Test
PreCommercial
Service
Commercial Service
Wireless Broadband
Internet
WiBro
Expected Market Size
Expected number of subscribers : 8 ~ 11 million subscribers in 2011
Prospect of sales : Maximum 3.2bn ~ 3.7bn US$ after 6 years from service launch
 Depending on competition with emerging services : WCDMA, DMB
Roll Out
Metropolitan Area
Incheon
Network will be established focusing on
urban area where the demand for data
Daejeon
Daegu
service is high
 National coverage : Around 2009
Gwangju
18
Ulsan
Busan
Ⅰ
Telecommunication Market Overview
II
Current Status of Mobile Market
III
Wireless Broadband Internet
IV Conclusion
19
Conclusion
Conclusion
Korea plans to continue the success of “Broadband Korea” in the wireless domain
WCDMA deployment is slow due to close substitutes (EV-DO) in cellular & PCS bands
The speed & tariff of EV-DO are not enough to boost mobile Internet demands
HSDPA & WiBro are expected to create broadband wireless Internet market
The standardization of WiBro will strengthen the global competitiveness of Korea
2006 will be a landmark year for establishing the stepping stone of 4G
20
Thank You!
KOREA INFORMATION STRATEGY
DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE