Transcript NOAA/NWS Digital Services Glenn Austin, Transition Manager AMS Corporate Forum Washington, DC

Glenn Austin, Transition Manager
AMS Corporate Forum
Washington, DC
March 9-10, 2006
NOAA/NWS Digital Services
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Outline
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Background
Current Capability
Examples and Feedback
Planned Enhancements
Long-term Goals
Opportunities
NOAA/NWS Digital Services
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Background
VISION:
To meet customer and partner needs for
high quality, accessible, and reliable digital
weather, water, and climate services.
NOAA/NWS Digital Services
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Current Capability
Collaborative-Forecasting Process
National Centers
Model Guidance
– Interactive
– Collaborative
– Information
Oriented
High Resolution Grids
Field
Offices
Local Digital
Forecast
Database
Collaborate
National
Centers
Data and Science Focus
NWS Automated Products
Digital
Text
Graphic
User-Generated Products
National Digital
Forecast
Database
Voice
NOAA/NWS Digital Services
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Current Capability
Fulfills NWS Strategic Goal:
• Faster access to information in more
convenient formats through new
pathways.
Fulfills NRC recommendation:
• “Provide data and products in digital
form.”
(Fair Weather Report; June 2003)
NOAA/NWS Digital Services
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Current Capability
The public, emergency
managers and city
planners use graphic
products for detailed
forecasts
 More weather
data
 Higher
resolution
forecasts
Commercial weather
companies, emergency
managers, and others
use grids to generate
tailored products
Different
Products for
Different
Customers
 Visual displays
of probability
 User-defined
TODAY...RAIN LIKELY.
SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500
FEET. SNOW
ACCUMULATION BY LATE
AFTERNOON 1 TO 2
INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET.
COLDER WITH HIGHS 35
TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND
5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHWESTEARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70%.
Radio stations & public
read text forecasts
NOAA/NWS Digital Services
products
create
business
opportunities
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Current Capability
Production
Operational elements:
Experimental elements:
• Maximum Temperature
• QPF
• Minimum Temperature
• Snow Amount
• Temperature
• Sky Cover
• Dew Point
• Significant Wave Height
• Probability of Precipitation
• Weather
• Wind Direction
Operational & experimental
• Wind Speed
elements available for
• Apparent Temperature *
CONUS, Puerto Rico/
*
• Relative Humidity
Virgin Islands, Hawaii, Guam
*
as of 3/15/06
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Current Capability
Distribution/Access
• FOS Server Access Service
• Anonymous ftp
• Free software developed by the
Meteorological Development Laboratory
decodes GRIB2 files and supports
conversion to netCDF or GIS shapefiles
• Experimental XML Web Service
• Web Graphics
NOAA/NWS Digital Services
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Current Capability
Assessment
• Monthly, point-based verification
available, comparing surface
observations and operational NDFD
forecast elements
• NDFD forecast element verification
scores comparable to accuracy of
legacy NWS forecasts and model
guidance
NOAA/NWS Digital Services
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Current Capability
Archive
Operational NDFD elements available from
NCDC through:
• Hierarchical Data Storage System (HDSS)
http://hurricane.ncdc.noaa.gov/pls/plhas/has.dsselect
• NOAA-National Operational Model Archive and
Distribution System (NOMADS)
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data.php?name=access#ndfd
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Katrina’s Eye Forecast to
Pass over New Orleans
Forecast issued
Saturday
morning Aug 27
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Apparent Temperature
January 2006
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Public Feedback
• “As a member of a fire department and EMS service
we must constantly be aware of weather conditions
and how they are going to change. We use the
graphical forecasts to prepare for changing weather.”
• “I work as a Facilities Director for a juvenile
correctional facility. We maintain 18 buildings and
grounds. For scheduling of staff for snow removal or
boiler plant shutdowns, your service is quite
valuable.”
• “I love the ability to look at a forecast for a particular
time period. This should be extremely valuable for us
as farmers to know predicted cloud cover and precip.
chance during the course of the day.”
NOAA/NWS Digital Services
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Your Feedback
1. Are you accessing or using the NDFD
information?
2. Is the information helping you achieve
the results you need to satisfy your, or
your customers’, needs?
3. If so, what positive impacts are you
willing to share?
4. If not, what else can we do to help?
NOAA/NWS Digital Services
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Unmet User Needs
• Relay critical weather information faster and more
efficiently
• Provide higher spatial and temporal resolution
• Support decision-making by making data more
interoperable
• More hazardous weather information in digital formats
NOAA/NWS Digital Services
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Planned Enhancements
Add as experimental elements during the
next 12 months:
• Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Speed
Probabilities from the Tropical Prediction
Center
• National Convective Outlooks for Days 1
and 2 from the Storm Prediction Center
• Fire Weather Forecast Parameters
• Elements for Alaska
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Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind
Speed Probability
Hurricane Wilma – Oct 2005
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Planned Enhancements
Improve over the next 12 months:
• Accuracy
• Expand Guidance
e.g., Gridded MOS, Downscaled GFS
• Produce Gridded Verification
• Generate Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis fields
• Resolution
• Provide NDFD forecast elements in 1-hour resolution
for Days 1-3
• Separate files for Days 1-3 and Days 4-7
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Planned Enhancements
Improve over the next 12 months:
• Availability (reliability)
• Transition to operational status XML web service
• Support operational status of NWS websites (99.9%
uptime)
• Consistency
• Improve and standardize forecasters’ grid-editing
tools
• Modify collaboration thresholds and better procedures
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Long-term Goals
• Increase spatial and temporal resolution
• Expand horizontal domain offshore and
internationally
• Add a vertical dimension (aviation)
• Include more probabilistic information
• Add downscaled high-impact weather
information
• Analysis of Record (objective analysis)
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Long-term Goals
• Establish NDGD
e.g., UV Index, probabilistic storm surge
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Create GIS Map Service
Add NDFD to CONDUIT and NOAAPORT
Interface with decision-assistance tools
Establish one-stop shopping
e.g., NDFD, Warning polygons, Radar
• Evolve into NOAA-wide “Environmental
Information Repository”
NOAA/NWS Digital Services
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Supply Chain
1. NWS – e.g., NDFD
2. Retailers – e.g., CWSA, others
3. Customers
Success factor: Frequent exchange of data
to know customers’ demands
• e.g., types of data, formats, consumption rates, etc.
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Business Opportunities
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Like software, music, and literature, free
open source data comes at a price (i.e.,
data isn’t everything and support may be
what a customer needs.)
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Your value-added adaptation is often
required to fit specific customers needs
(especially large complex organizations
with weather- sensitive operations.)
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Questions, Comments?
[email protected]
301-713-1858 x150
http://weather.gov/ndfd/
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