Transcript Document 7378431

QuikSCAT Follow-On Options:
Wind Vector Retrievals
Simulation Study Results
Simulations performed at JPL and provided to NOAA for user analyses and validation
Special thanks to JPL team
Ernesto Rodriguez, Rob Gaston, Scott Dunbar,
Svetla Velva, Brian Stiles,
Daniel Esteban-Fernandez, Samuel Chan
Zorana Jelenak
NOAA/NESDIS/StAR-UCAR
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Foreseen Impact on NOAA Operations
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Higher spatial resolution (~5km)
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Full wind speed range (to category 5),
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Coastal coverage 2.5-5 km of land
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Significantly better retrievals in rain impacted measurements
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Areas of Emphasis:
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Tropical cyclones (Katrina (4) and Rita (5))
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Extra-tropical cyclones (Helene, Seattle storm Dec 2006)
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Coastal winds (dual low level jets off of Cape Blanco and Cape Mendocino,
high wind events along the Alaska coast )
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WRF Simulations
Initial/boundary conditions from
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the GFDL 1/6th degree and 1deg resolution NCEP m
A set of three nested grids were used
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outer most grid with a resolution of 12 km and covering
~5000x5000km
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the middle grid with a resolution of 4km
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inner most grid with a resolution of 1.3km and covering
~500x500km.
Used was a 6-class microphysical scheme (vapor, cloud
liquid, rain, cloud ice, snow and graupel). This is one of the
most complex from the currently available schemes.
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0  G
Pr
Pt
Simulating Scatterometer Measurements
Ku-band
V, H pol
Wind retrievals
Ku-band
V, H pol
C-band
V, H pol
Simultaneous rain and
wind retrievals – rain
rate information not
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available
Katrina – 3rd Example 8/28/2005-23:50
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Katrina – 3rd Example 8/28/2005-23:50
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Katrina – 3rd Example 8/28/2005-23:50
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Katrina – 4th Example 8/29/2005 -5:50
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Katrina – 4th Example 8/29/2005-5:50
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Katrina – 4th Example 8/29/2005-5:50
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Wind Radii – Katrina Example
64kts
50kts
50kts
50kts
QuikSCAT
64kts
XOVWM
WRF
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QuikSCAT and XOVWM vs WRF Wind Speeds
QuikSCAT vs WRF
XOVWM vs WRF
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Rita – 5th Example 9/22/05 15:30
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Rita – 5th Example 9/22/05 15:30
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Wind Radii – Rita Example
64kts
64kts
50kts
50kts
34kts
34kts
34kts
QuikSCAT
50kts
XOVWM
64kts
WRF
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QSCAT vs WRF Wind Speeds for Rita Simulations
QuikSCAT significantly
underestimates high wind
speeds. The different plots
show Hurricane Rita at
different times of its
evolution.
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XOVWM vs WRF Wind Speeds for
Rita Simulations
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Max Wind
WRF
09:21:15:30 09:21:21:30 09:22:3:30 09:22:9:30 09:22:15:30
XOVWM
QuikSCAT
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Helene – 09/22/2006 9:30UTC
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Helene – 09/22/2006 9:30UTC
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Helene – 09/22/2006 9:30UTC
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Coastal Simulation Studies
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Study description:
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Use NOGAPS model wind complemented with SAR 500m resolution wind
speed observations to simulate XOVWM and QuikSCAT data (SAR does
not provide direction data and has limited temporal coverage.)
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Primary data (Alaska) selected by NOAA based on known hazardous
coastal winds in shipping lanes and fisheries. The Alaska coast near
Juneau and Sitka has frequent strong coastal winds which affect the safety of
shipping and fishing boats.
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Additional data (California & Oregon) selected based on known highly
variable coastal winds
Coastal Masks
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QuikSCAT measures winds only up to 20 km from the coast, and cannot
meet the coastal winds needs
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XOVWM can measure winds up to 2.5km of the coast
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Alaska Coast
Currently Available Routine Data Availability
Model winds are routinely available at low
resolution, which fail to capture high speed
coastal winds and variability
Occasionally, SAR wind speed data (no
directions) are available that give an indication of
the true wind variability. Note speeds do not
agree with model.
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SAR Winds + NOGAPS Directions
QuikSCAT-like Retrievals
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SAR Winds + NOGAPS Directions
XOVWM Retrievals
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Alaska Coast SAR Winds and Simulations
SAR Winds + NOGAPS Directions
QuikSCAT-like Retrievals
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Alaska Coast SAR Winds and Simulations
SAR Winds + NOGAPS Directions
XOVWM Retrievals
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SE Alaska Coast SAR Winds and Simulations
SAR Winds + NOGAPS Directions
QuikSCAT-like Retrievals
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SE Alaska Coast SAR Winds and Simulations
SAR Winds + NOGAPS Directions
XOVWM Retrievals
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Requirements Importance
Increased resolution and decreased
sensitivity to rain will allow for:
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•
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More reliable estimates of tropical cyclone
intensity through all stages of development
 tropical depressions, tropical storms,
hurricanes and potentially major hurricanes
Improved analysis of tropical cyclone wind field
structure (34, 50, and 64 kt radii)  more
refined watch/warning areas for the coast
More accurate tracking of tropical cyclone
centers and earlier identification of
developing TCs  more accurate initial motion
estimates as input into model guidance
More accurate maximum wind estimates of
extratropical cyclones and distribution of all
warning categories
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Requirements Importance - Continued
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Wind field associated with both organized
convection such as squall lines and less
organized convection
QuikSCAT
MeasurementSimulated
of
Field
Wind field in the vicinity of ocean surface
thermal features such as warm and cold
rings, fronts, and currents
XOVW M
Measurement of Simulated Field
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Significantly better definition of coastal wind
features including orographically induced
or enhanced low level jets
Significantly better definition of ocean
forcing for areas such as upwelling along
coastlines
Plots courtesy of JPL
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Conclusions
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Much progress has been made in the last year
• However, there is no guarantee at this point that there will be an
ocean vector winds mission after QuikSCAT ends
• The scatterometer is competing against many different instruments
with active user communities in a limited funding environment
• The science and operational requirement justifications for a follow-on
scatterometer OSVW mission must continue to be made
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The following year will be key for advocacy by the
science and operational communities
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The end users must be an integral and active part of
the next steps
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These activities need to be sustained
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Recommendations for Consideration
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Elevate the priority, accelerate and approve plans for continuous OSVW
missions to minimize the data gap and continue improvements in weather
forecasting and warning capabilities and climate studies realized today,
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Fund the Extended Ocean Vector Winds Mission (XOVWM) as
recommended by the National Research Council and designed and
presented in a study by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory to overcome
limitations in current measurement capabilities and advance improvements in
weather forecasting especially in coastal zones and hurricanes
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User impact studies need to continue beyond the completion of the
QuikSCAT follow-on study that NASA-JPL is conducting for NOAA.
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