Transcript Document 7343230

Evolution of the Revolution
Latin America and the Future of Chavismo
Foreign Policy Research Institute, 6 May 2011
Why We Care About Latin
America
✤
Largest foreign supplier of oil & a strong partner in the development of alternative fuels.
✤
Serious potential for the transfer of fisal material from Iran to Venezuela, destabilizing national security all
over Latin America.
✤
A massive military buildup in Venezuela, with Russia, China, Iran, and Libya as partners, threatens
regional stability, as well as US interests both in Venezuela and other countries, such as Colombia.
✤
Latin America is one of the United States’ fastest-growing trading partners.
✤
Latin America is the US’s biggest supplier of illegal drugs.
✤
Latin America is the largest source of immigrants to the US, both documented and not: Latinos now
account for 15% of the US population and nearly 50% of recent US population growth, as well as a
growing portion of the electorate.
✤
The growth of transnational gangs and the resurgence of previously waning terrorist organizations.
✤
Shifting power balance: Latin America has increasing sway over the US, while the US loses influence
Christ to Bolívar to Chávez
Chávez the Savior?
✤
✤
✤
✤
“Recuerden que Cristo andaba buscando a los Apóstole, y fueron los
Apóstoles por el mundo, y sólo así hicieron la Revolución Cristiana”
“Venezuela está haciendo esfuerzos supremos por alejarse, y nos
estamos alejando, de la maldición del neoliberalismo, del egoísmo porque
el egoísmo y es lo que condenaba Jesús y es a lo que vino. Si Jesús
llegara otra vez aquí y se hiciera hombre, sería antineoliberal”
“Estamos saliendo de los infiernos y construiremos aquí el cielo, el reino
del hombre hijo de Dios aquí, en Venezuela la bolivariana, la nueva
Venezuela, la grande, Venezuela la que amamos”
“Diós está al mando de todo esto. Vamos siguiendo su camino y vamos
siguiendo sus designios”
Radicalization of
21st Century Socialism
✤
Programa Económico de Transición 1999-2000: “to bring about an
economic reactivation on solid and permanent bases” that supported
the private sector
✤
Primer Plan Socialista 2007-2013: very specifically seeks to advance
socialist means of production
✤
Other laws to accelerate socialist expropriations:
✤
Ley de Seguridad y Soberanía Agroalimentaria
✤
Ley de Defensa para el Acceso a los Bienes y Servicios
Land Expropriations
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2005 - 2009: there were 762 expropriations: 550 (72%) of which were farms
✤
Failure to prove ownership chain (cadena titular) cited by INTI in 40% of
cases
✤
Ley de Tierras Baldías y Ejidos of 1936 is valid & grants validity of duly
registered documents from before 1848, or, barring those, if an uninterrupted
chain of transfer can be shown, State must give priority to work over
possession
✤
Other sources of land title, not recognized under Chávez:
✤
Reál Cédula: gifts from King of Spain (not granted by Republic)
✤
Haberes militares: reward to independence fighters
Objections to Land
Expropriations
✤
✤
According to Datanálisis:
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74% of Venezuelans object to nationalizations of private property
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Only 10% think private industry should be nationalized
Even by the State’s own admission, less than 10% of the 2 million
hectares (nearly 5 million acres) seized so far have been turned over
to community groups
More Expropriated Industries
✤
Agriculture
✤
Hydrocarbons
✤
Cement manufacturers
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Construction
✤
Transportation
✤
Steel (SIDOR)
✤
Utilities (Electricidad de Caracas, CANTV)
Decline in Foreign Investment
✤
Foreign investment in Venezuela is the lowest in the continent
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It declined US$3.105 billion in 2009 and $1.404 billion in 2010
✤
According to 2008-9 figures, Venezuela is behind:
✤
Colombia ($17.784 billion)
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Perú ($11.682 billion)
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Uruguay ($2.978 billion)
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El Salvador ($1.214 billion)
Types of Violations of Freedom of
Expression
(Oct. 2009 - Sept. 2010, Provea)
Type of Violation
Total
Percentage (%)
Judicial harassment
17
17.34
Prior censure
16
16.32
Intimidation
14
14.28
Administrative restrictions
13
13.26
Threats
12
12.24
Verbal harassment
11
11.22
Physical aggression
8
8.16
Legal restrictions
3
3.06
Attack
2
2.04
Self-censorship
2
2.04
Total
98
100
Authority Violating Freedom of
Expression (Oct. 2009 - Sept. 2010, Provea)
Responsible
Total
Percentage (%)
National Executive
20
24.39
Public Ministry
13
15.85
Judicial Power
11
13.42
Bolivarian National Guard (GNB)
7
8.54
National Assembly
4
4.87
CICPC
4
4.87
Municipal authorities
3
3.66
Civil servants of the Executive branch
3
3.66
Regional executive
3
3.66
Municipal police
3
3.66
Military prosecutor
2
2.44
Legislative councils
2
2.44
Regional police
1
1.22
DIM
1
1.22
SEBIN
1
1.22
CNE (National Electoral Council)
1
1.22
Casa Militar
1
1.22
Army
1
1.22
Defensoría del Pueblo
1
1.22
Total
82
100
Affected Media (Oct. 2009 - Sept. 2010,
Provea)
Media
Total
Percentage (%)
Subscription TV channels
6
24
Private radio stations
6
24
Private newspapers
6
24
Private broadcast TV stations
4
16
Private digital media
2
8
Community broadcasters
1
4
Total
25
100
Examples of Media Censorship
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Globovisión: Guillermo Zuloaga (owner) in exile for “spreading false information” about the
President; government expropriated the Banco Federal, owned by Nelson Mezerhane, who co-owns
Globovisión; government has taken a 20% stake and now requires that owners be in the country
when they re-apply for broadcast licenses (Zuloaga faces imprisonment)
Luís Acosta and Carmen Nares were indicted on 12 July 2010 for “spreading false information” for
tweeting information on the Venezuelan financial system
✤
Cristian Fuentes was harassed and forced to erase photos he tweeted of the subway system in
Plaza Venezuela, complaining of its bad service
✤
In January 2010 the following TV channels were suspended: RCTV Internacional, Ritmo Son,
Momentum, América TV, American Network and TV Chile; and the following radio stations:
Promociones Telemaracay (TVS), Tropical 88.5 FM (in Carrizal, Edo. Miranda), Fundación Ríos
95.3 FM (in Pedraza, Edo. Barinas), and Victoria 103.9 FM had its reach reduced from 14
municipalities to three
✤
PSUV Mayor of San Fernando in Apure, Jhon Guerra, ordered the 180-day closure of the bi-weekly
newspaper Notillanos
December 2010 Laws to Limit
Dissent (Ley Resorte)
✤
Passed by a pliant lame-duck National Assembly
✤
Imposes penalties for spreading political dissent through the Internet,
including closing Web sites
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Granted decree powers to Chávez for 18 months, effectively nullifying the
incoming (less pliant) National Assembly
✤
✤
Prevents legislators from leaving PSUV to join opposition: a “fraud” that
disqualifies them from holding public office
Even within the National Assembly, political discussion has been limited:
can speak for a bill for only 10 minutes (down from 15); can speak against
a bill for 3 minutes (down from 5)
Election Laws Broken:
The Use of Public Funds
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Bolivarian Constitution: Articles 21, 67 and 145
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Law Against Corruption: Articles 13, 18 and 68 (this last punishable by 1-3
years in prison)
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Organic Law of Electoral Processes (LOPRE): Article 72, Numerals 1 and 10;
Article 75, Numeral 13; Article 91, Numeral 5
✤
Rule #5 of the Organic Law of Electoral Processes Pertaining to the Control
of Financing on an Electoral Campaign: Article 9, Numerals 2 and 8
✤
Rule #6 of the Organic Law of Electoral Processes Pertaining to the Control
of Financing on an Electoral Campaign: Article 5, Numeral 14; Article 18;
Article 19
Election Laws Broken:
Campaign Timing
✤
Article 75, Numeral 1 of LOPRE
✤
Article 5, Numeral 1 of Rule #6 of LOPRE
✤
Article 1 of the Special Rule of the Electoral Campaign for the
Parliamentary Elections of 2010: “Campaigning will be from 6 a.m. on
25 August until 12 midnight the night of 23 September.”
Election Laws Broken:
Public Servants Favoring
Candidates
✤
Bolivarian Constitution: Article 145
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Law Against Corruption: Articles 13 and 68
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Rule #6 of the LOPRE: Articles 17-19
Corruption
✤
Transparency International’s 2010 study:
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Gave Venezuela a score of 2 (out of 10)
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Venezuela is ranked 164 out of 178 countries
✤
Worse than: Libya, Russia, Guinea-Bissau, Congo-Brazzaville
and Zimbabwe
✤
On a par with the DRC and Kyrgyzstan
Venezuela: Deadlier than Iraq
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In 2009: 4,644 civilian deaths from violence in Iraq, according to Iraq Body Count; over 16,000
murders in Venezuela
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Since Chávez took office in 1999: 118,541 murders
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More violent than Mexico’s drug war:
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Over 28,000 deaths from drug-related violence in Mexico since 2006
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43,792 homicides in Venezuela since 2007
Hemispheric homicide rates (per 100,000 inhabitants):
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Caracas: 200
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Bogotá: 22.7
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Sao Paulo: 14
State-Wide Criminality
✤
Cocaine trafficking: 60% - 80% of Europe’s cocaine is shipped out of
Venezuela (Walid Makled, Venezuela’s Pablo Escobar: Venezuela is
a “narcostate”)
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Contravention of UN sanctions against Iran
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Support of terrorism (FARC, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad)
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Corruption at an all-time high
Walid Makled: “El Turco”
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White House: Makled is 3rd most important drug kingpin in the world
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Smuggled 10 tons of cocaine a month into USA and Europe (10% of global supply)
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Phenomenal institutionalized distribution network:
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Aeropostal airline
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Protected warehouses in Puerto Cabello
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Government supplied him with huge amounts of urea
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Drug route: Honduras to US, West Africa to Europe (60% of supply)
Claims links to terrorism (Hezbollah, FARC) and Chávez government
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Minister of the Interior and Justice Tarek El Aissami, as well as brothers Tarek (Vice-Minister of Citizen’s Security), Haifa (Public Prosecutor) and Feras (plane-chartering
“student”)
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General-in-Chief of Unified Command of Venezuela’s Armed Forces Henry Rangel Silva
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General Hugo Carvajal, Director of Military Intelligence
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General Luís Mota, Commander of the National Guard
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General Néstor Reverón, Head of the Anti-Drug Office
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Commander of the 45th Armored Brigade General Clíver Alcalá (bazookas & munitions to FARC)
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Navy Commander-in-Chief Carlos Aniasi Turchio (“a business relationship”)
“Latin America’s Century”
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“Latin America’s autonomy is both a cause and a result of decreased US influence.” (Foreign Affairs, May/June
2011)
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Stemming from the US:
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End of Cold War (less preoccupation with Domino Effect)
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Prioritization of Middle East (Iran, Afghanistan, GWOT)
Stemming from within Latin America
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Economic growth (Brazil, Chile, Peru)
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Multilateralism (South-South => IBSA => BRICS, G-20, UNASUR)
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Emergent nationalism (e.g., Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador), as a result of anger over “technocratic
imperialists” of “Washington consensus”)
Result: new partners, including: Iran, Russia, China
“Latin Americans want results,
not blame”
✤
Democracy and open markets affirmed in Mexico, Brazil, Peru
✤
Latin America unscathed in recent global economic crisis (Chile used
copper profits to create a $12.8 billion rainy-day fund)
✤
In fact, Latin America is now exporting its solutions
✤
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Poverty and health: Brazil’s Bolsa Familia and Mexico’s
Oportunidades
Counterinsurgency: Colombia in Iraq and Afghanistan
Brazil’s Global Ascendance
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“The new imperialists have arrived and they speak Portuguese.”
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Tupi oil fields: reserves estimated at 5-8 billion barrels, second only to
Venezuela
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Biofuels and other green energy
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G-8 + 5
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Angling for a permanent seat on UN Security Council (Obama has favored India)
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Brokered Iranian nuclear deal with Turkey
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UNASUR to promote regional integration and solidarity
Countries turning away from
chavismo
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Brazil: Lula => Roussef
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Chile: Bachelet => Piñera (Left to Right, sort of)
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Argentina: the crumbling of kirchnerismo
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Panamá: Pres. Ricardo Martinelli: Leftist with practical policies
✤
El Salvador:
✤
Pres. Mauricio Funes (FMLN) uniting the country
✤
Comalapa Air Base
Has Lula killed chavismo?
✤
Yes: he improved the socioeconomic status of 49 million Brazilians
while pursuing capitalist and practical agenda
✤
No: Ollanta Humala in Peru is proof that populism still plays well
✤
Maybe: Ollanta Humala has hired campaign advisors from Lula’s
Workers Party and he says he is following Brazil’s path, distancing
himself from Chávez
Perú: Miracle or Hard Lesson?
✤
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✤
Since García’s election in 2006, Peru’s economy has averaged 7
percent annual growth (it had been averaging 5 percent for the five
years prior to his election)
Percentage of Peruvians living in poverty:
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49 percent in 2004
✤
35 percent in 2009
Peru moved up 24 places in the U.N.’s Human Development Report
between 2005 and 2010, and has now passed Venezuela
Ollanta Humala
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A former army officer who led a military revolt in 2000
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Suspected of 3 tortures and 5 disappearances near Madre Mía
counterinsurgency base against the Shining Path in 1992
✤
In 2006, he ran as a chavista
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Now the front runner against Keiko Fujimori (Alberto’s daughter)
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Now he says “Venezuelan model isn’t applicable to Peru,” but
Brazilian instead
Dangers remain
✤
Bolivia’s military has declared itself “socialist, anti-imperialist, anticapitalist”
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Ecuador, where Correa:
✤
Ended lease on Manta military base
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Protects the FARC
✤
Expelled American ambassador
✤
Nicaragua’s Pres. Daniel Ortega
✤
ALBA: Antigua & Barbuda, Bolivia, Cuba, Dominica, Ecuador, Nicaragua, St. Vincent & Grenadines and Venezuela
✤
Venezuela’s huge military buildup from Russia
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China’s pursuit of raw materials ($21B in 2005; $71B in 2008
✤
Perú: from Alán García to Ollanta Humala?
✤
Venezuelan crude hits $108.29 a barrel: lots of discretionary spending for Chávez
High Price of Mismanagement
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Transnational drug trafficking under state aegis
✤
Transnational terrorist networks, resulting in both their strengthening
and importation, complicating Homeland Security, as well
strengthening of terrorist groups in the Middle East, where the US is
now embroiled in three wars and has problems with Yemen and Iran
✤
Immigration to the US of those fleeing a breakdown of democratic
institutions or rising violence in their home countries
✤
Loss of business opportunity (expropriations, as well as new alliances
with China, Russia and Iran)
Partnerships: New and
Abandoned
✤
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US has robust partnerships with both Left and Right
✤
Left: Brazil, El Salvador, Uruguay
✤
Right: Chile, Mexico, Peru
But US has abandoned some old allies: Colombia and Panamá,
whose FTAs have lingered for almost 6 years
American Non-Intervention as an
Asset?
✤
Gives countries “breathing room” to assert their sovereignty: can enter
partnerships with US without appearing subservient
✤
Alarmist responses play into hands of demagogic populists, such as
Chávez, Castros, Morales, Ortega
✤
Instead, US must change regional engagement strategy from reactive
enforcement to active partnership
Greater Social Justice
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Ameliorate economic inequality:
✤
Enhance labor opportunities
✤
Eradicate bottlenecks in income flows
✤
Diversify energy sources (green jobs in biofuels)
End corruption
✤
Greater transparency and accountability through uncensored media
✤
A culture of civic duty imparted through the media
Bring law and order to the people
✤
Depoliticized and independent judicial system
✤
Prioritize human rights in due process
✤
Coordinate national and transnational police
Empower the Individual Citizen
✤
Education that is more widely accessible and introduces free
exchange of liberal democratic ideas
✤
Better, more accessible health care
✤
Lower public transportation costs through competition (e.g., por
puesto buses)
✤
A communication infrastructure that allows better communication of
citizens’ needs
✤
A free media
✤
Universal political registration of children and universal suffrage
✤
Better registration and protection of private property allowing leverage
into financial assets (including microcredit)
National Unity,
Political Heterogeneity
✤
Promote a new understanding of mestizo history
✤
Support charismatic leaders that can unite the people
✤
Greater political checks and balances
✤
Support retention of middle class, through:
✤
Political stability
✤
Personal security
✤
A reasonable tax policy
✤
Protected property rights