Transcript The Millennium Ecosystem —A work in progress Assessment Harold Mooney

The Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment—A work in progress
Harold Mooney
June 14, 2004
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

An international scientific assessment of the consequences of
ecosystem changes for human well-being
Launched in 2001, reports due in 2005

Providing information requested by:

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
Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)

Convention to Combat Desertification (CCD)

Ramsar Convention on Wetlands

Convention on Migratory Species (CMS)

other partners including the private sector and civil society
With the goals of:

stimulating and guiding action

building capacity
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Key design features of the MA
MA
Political legitimacy

Authorized by four conventions and UN
Scientific credibility
Utility

Follows IPCC procedures

Focus strongly shaped by audience
Strong sub-global features
FCCC
SBSTA
IPCC
Ramsar
STRP
CCD
CBD
SBSTTA
CST
CMS
SC
MA
Research, UN Data, National and International Assessments
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Who governs the assessment?
Board represents “Users” of the MA findings

Conventions

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UN Agencies

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GEF, UN Foundation
International science organizations

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UNEP, UNDP, FAO, WHO, UNESCO
Donors

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CBD, UNCCD, UNFCCC, Ramsar, CMS
CGIAR, ICSU, IUCN
At large representation
 Private sector
 NGOs
 Scientists
 indigenous people
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Organizational Structure
Committees:
Executive
Budget
Communications
MA Board
Review
Board Chairs
Assessment Panel
Working Group Chairs
Support Functions
Director, Administration,
Logistics, Data Management
Sub-Global Assessment
Working Group
Outreach &
Engagement
Condition
Scenarios
Response
Chapter
Review
Editors
Global Assessment Working Groups
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Who is conducting the assessment?
Technical work overseen by a 13-member
Assessment Panel
Co-chairs:
Hal Mooney (USA), Angela Cropper (Trinidad)
Members:
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Bob Scholes (South Africa)
Rashid Hassan (South Africa)
Prabhu Pingali (FAO, Rome)
Steve Carpenter (USA)
Rik Leemans (Netherlands)
Kanchan Chopra (India)
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Cristian Samper (USA)
Doris Capistrano (Indonesia)
Bob May (UK)
Partha Dasgupta (UK)
Zhao Shidong (China)
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Who is conducting the assessment?

More than 700 Coordinating Lead Authors, Lead
Authors, and Chapter Review Editors from ~90
countries
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½ natural scientists; ½ social scientists
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Hundreds of additional experts involved in subglobal assessments

Expect more than 1000 expert reviewers
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Timeline
Launch and design
Core assessment work
Review process
Board
approval
2001
UN Launch
2002
2003
Release of
Conceptual
Framework report
2004
2005
Release of
Assessment
Reports
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Assessment Focus: Ecosystem Services
The benefits people obtain from ecosystems
Provisioning
Regulating
Cultural
Goods produced or
provided by
ecosystems
Benefits obtained
from regulation of
ecosystem
processes
Non-material
benefits from
ecosystems
• food
• fresh water
• fuel wood
• genetic resources
• climate regulation
• disease regulation
• flood regulation
• spiritual
• recreational
• aesthetic
• inspirational
• educational
Supporting
Services necessary for production of other ecosystem services
• Soil formation
• Nutrient cycling
• Primary production
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Consequences of Ecosystem Change for Human
Well-being
Ecosystem Services
Constituents of Well-being
Security
Provisioning
Services
Supporting
Services
Regulating
Services
Basic
Material for
Good Life
Freedoms
and
Choice
Health
Cultural
Services
Good Social
Relations
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
MA Framework
Human Wellbeing and
Poverty Reduction
 Material minimum for a good
life
 Health
 Good Social Relations
Human Wellbeing
 Security
and
 Freedom andPoverty
Choice Reduction
Ecosystem
Services
Life on Earth:
Biodiversity
Indirect Drivers of Change
 Demographic
 Economic (globalization, trade,
market and policy framework)
 Sociopolitical (governance and
institutional framework)
 Science
Technology
Indirect and
Drivers
 Cultural
and Religious
Of Change
Direct Drivers of Change

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Changes in land use or land cover
Direct introductions
Drivers
Species
or removals
Technology
adaptation and use
Of Change
External inputs (e.g., irrigation,
fertilizer use, pest control)
 Harvest and Resource
Consumption
 Climate Change
 Natural physical and biological
drivers (e.g., volcanoes, evolution)
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
MA Working Groups
Condition Working Group
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What is the current condition
and historical trends of
ecosystems and their
services?
What have been the
consequences of changes in
ecosystems for human wellbeing?
Scenario Working Group

Given plausible changes in
primary drivers, what will be
the consequences for
ecosystems, their services,
and human well-being?
Responses Working Group

What can we do to enhance
well-being and conserve
ecosystems?
Sub-Global Assessment Working Group
All of the above… at sub-global scales
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Northern Wisconsin
MA is a Multi-scale Assessment
e.g., Southern Africa Millennium Assessment
SADC region
3 drainage basins
Local assessments
Zambezi
Gariep
Source: Reyers, B., SAfMA Lessons Learned (Panama, June 2002)
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Why a Multi-Scale Assessment?
Expect that findings at any scale of a multi-scale assessment will be
improved by information and perspectives from other scales
Rationale
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Characteristic scale of processes

Greater resolution at smaller scales

Independent validation of
conclusions

Global Assessment
Users
Regional
Regional
Development
Banks, etc.
National
National
Government
Local
Local
Community
Response options matched to the
scale where decision-making takes
place
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
What will the MA publish?
Assessment Reports
(300-800 pages with 30
page Summaries for
Decision-Makers)
CBD
UNCCD
Summary Report
(150
pages
-- set of
(150
Pages)
SDMs from CF and
Assessment Reports)
Ramsar
Private
Sector
General
Audience
Synthesis Reports
(30-60 page synthesis of key findings relevant to specific
user audiences)
Plus: Sub-global assessments, methods, tools
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
What will the MA publish?
First MA Report

Provides framework for
linking ecosystems and
development

Presents methods and
approaches for undertaking
an integrated ecosystem
assessment
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Technical chapters examine current status and trends of
ecosystem services across ecosystem types
A) Provisioning
Chapter 8.
Chapter 9.
Chapter 10.
Chapter 11.
Freshwater
Food
Timber, Fiber, Fuel
Novel Products and Industries from Biodiversity
B) Supporting and Regulating
Chapter 12.
Biodiversity regulation of ecosystem services
Chapter 13.
Nutrient cycling
Chapter 14.
Air quality and climate regulation
Chapter 15.
Human infectious disease agents
Chapter 16.
Waste processing and detoxification
Chapter 17.
Natural Hazard regulation
C) Cultural
Chapter 18.
Cultural and amenity services
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Then examine the status of different ecosystems in providing
these ecosystem services
Ch. 19
Ch. 20
Ch. 21
Ch. 22
Ch. 23
Ch. 24
Ch. 25
Ch. 26
Ch. 27
Ch. 28
Cultivated Systems
Dryland systems
Forest systems
Urban systems
Inland Water systems
Coastal systems
Marine systems
Polar Systems
Mountain systems
Island systems
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Approach to quantifying the MA scenarios
Storylines
Global
Orchestration,
Techno-garden,
etc.
Model Outputs
AIM
Global change
IMAGE 2
WaterGAP
Global change
World water
resources
Regulating
- Climate regulation (C flux)
- Air quality (NOx, S
emissions)
Model
Inputs
Demographic
Economic
Technological
Provisioning Services
- Food (meat, fish, grain
production)
- Fiber (timber)
- Freshwater (renewable
water resources &
withdrawals)
- Fuel wood (biofuels)
IMPACT
Supporting
primary production
World food
production
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
MA will provide:
Foresight regarding consequences of
decisions
MA Scenarios:
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Global Orchestration
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Order from Strength
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retreat from global institutions, focus on national regulation
and protectionism
Adapting Mosaic
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focus on macro-scale policy reform for environmental
sustainability
retreat from global institutions, focus on strengthened local
institutions and local learning
Technogarden
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emphasis on development of technologies to substitute for
ecosystem services
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Inventory matrix of response options
Regional level
issues
Response
options
National level
Economic
interventions
Local level
Legal
interventions
Institutional
interventions
Forest management
Food security
Fresh water management
Biodiversity conservation
Urban planning
Climate change
Regulation
Information
Response
&
dissemination
options compliance & education
Regional
cooperation &
policy integration
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
The CF focuses on decision makers and
processes
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
The caveats
“Decision-making concerning ecosystems and their services can
be particularly challenging because different disciplines,
philosophical views, and schools of thought conceive of the value
of ecosystems differently.
Ecosystem values in terms of services provided are only one of
the bases on which decisions on ecosystem management are
and should be made. Many other factors, including notions of
intrinsic value and other objectives that society might have,
such as equity among different groups or generations, will also
feed into the decision framework.”
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Pg 154
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Pg 155
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Government and Expert Review
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Visit the MA Website
www.millenniumassessment.org
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment