Transcript State of WTO Agricultural Negotiations

State of WTO
Agricultural Negotiations
Meeting on the
Integrated Assessment of Trade
Liberalization in the Agriculture Sector
19-20 February 2003
Note: The views expressed do not represent
the WTO Secretariat or the member states of the WTO.
Introduction
• A first draft of the modalities was presented to WTO Ministers
last week in Tokyo by the Chair of the Special Session (Mr S.
Harbinson). They will be proposed again at the special session
of the committee on agriculture at the end of this month. The
paper is available at the WTO website: www.wto.org
• The proposals cover market access, export competition,
domestic support, S & D provisions and non-trade concerns.
• Overall members are still far apart on many of the proposals.
Fundamentally, the issue is the level of ambition of further
reform in agricultural trade
• These spill over into the methods to be applied in preparing
draft schedules and matters relating to the rules and disciplines
of the Agreement
Outline
• Mandate of negotiations
• Timeline of negotiations
• Major areas of negotiations
– Market access (tariffs, tariff quotas, special
safeguard, special treatment)
– Export competition (export subsidies, export
credits)
– Domestic support (amber, green, blue boxes)
• Background information on rice
Doha Mandate
• Doha Declaration 14 November 2001 on Agriculture
– Building on the work undertaken already
– Long term objective of fair and market orientated agriculture
trading system
• Doha Work Programme:
–
–
–
–
substantial improvements in market access
Reductions of, with a view to phasing out, export subsidies
substantial reductions in trade distorting support
Special and differential treatment integral to negotiations and
outcome
– Take account of non-trade concerns
Timeline, 2003-05
• Ministerial Meeting in Tokyo (1st draft of modalities)
• February 2003 – Special Session of Committee on
Agriculture
• 31 March 2003 - Modalities to be established.
• Fifth Ministerial Conference (Cancun) in September
2003 - members are to produce their first offers or
comprehensive draft commitments
• The negotiations are to end by 1 January 2005
Recall: Major Provisions
A. Market Access
B. Domestic Support
C. Export Competition
Tariffs
Bound tariffs
Ceiling bindings
Amber Box
Reduction Commitments
Quantity Reductions
Minimum Access
Tariff Quotas
Special Safeguard
Special Treatment
Value Reductions
Blue Box
Production Limiting
Green Box
Non Trade Distorting
De Minimis Exemptions
Developing Country Exemptions
Recall: UR commitments
Tariffs
average cut for all agricultural
products
minimum cut per product
Domestic support
cuts in total (“AMS”) support
for the sector
Exports
value of subsidies (outlays)
subsidized quantities
Developed countries
6 years: 1995–2000
Developing countries
10 years: 1995–2004
–36%
–24%
–15%
–10%
–20%
–13%
–36%
–21%
–24%
–14%
Proposal on Tariffs
(Applied to Developed Countries)
• The following reductions shall apply to final
bound tariffs over a period of 5 years:
– For all tariffs greater than 90%, average reduction by 60
percent with a minimum cut of 45 percent per tariff line
– For all tariffs lower than or equal to 90% and greater
than 15%, average reduction by 50 percent with a
minimum cut of 35 percent per tariff line
– For all tariffs lower than or equal to 15%, average
reduction by 40 percent with a minimum cut of 25
percent per tariff line
Other Aspects of Tariff Proposals
• Tariff preferences
– To minimize the loss of tariff preferences received by
some developing countries, the tariff reduction can be
implemented in 8 (instead of 5) years
– However, this shall be applicable only for products
representing a quarter of total exports of beneficiary
countries
• Tariff Escalation
– Where tariffs on processed products are higher than on
primary products, the tariff reduction must be higher on
the processed products
Proposal on Tariffs
(Applied to Developing Countries)
• Strategic Products
– Developing countries can exempt certain products as “strategic
products” with respect to food security, rural development and/or
livelihood security. Tariffs would be reduced by 10% over ten
years with a minimum cut of 5%
• Other agricultural products (implemented over 10 years)
– For all tariffs greater than 120%, average reduction by 40 percent
with a minimum cut of 30 percent per tariff line
– For all tariffs lower than or equal to 120% and greater than 20%,
average reduction by 33 percent with a minimum cut of 23 percent
per tariff line
– For all tariffs lower than or equal to 20%, average reduction by 27
percent with a minimum cut of 17 percent per tariff line
Tariff Quotas
(Applied to Developed Countries)
• Final bound tariff quotas, which are less than 10%
of current domestic consumption, shall be
increased to 10% in equal installments over a 5
year period. Up to a fourth of tariff lines can be
bound at 8% provided that a corresponding
number of tariff lines are bound at 12%
• Current domestic consumption is the average
consumption over the 1999-2001 period
• In-quota duty free access shall be given for
tropical products, whether in processed or primary
form
Tariff Quotas
(Applied to Developing Countries)
• Tariff quota volumes need not be expanded for
strategic products
• For other agricultural products, final bound tariff
quotas that are less than 5.5% of current domestic
consumption shall be increased to 6.6% in equal
installments over a 10 year period. Up to a fourth
of tariff lines can be bound at 5% provided that a
corresponding number of tariff lines are bound at
8%
Special Safeguards
• These are to be eliminated for developed
countries after the period of tariff reductions
• Developing countries shall retain the right
to use special safeguards
Export Subsidies
(Applicable to Developed Countries)
• All export subsidies shall be eliminated within 10
years. This shall be conducted in two phases:
– For agricultural products representing at least half of
the aggregate final bound level of budgetary outlays,
subsidies shall be eliminated within 5 years
– The remaining products shall be reduced so that by the
10th year, budgetary outlays and quantities shall be
reduced to zero
Export Subsidies (Applicable to
Developing Countries)
• All export subsidies shall be eliminated within 13
years. This shall be conducted in two phases:
– For agricultural products representing at least half of
the aggregate final bound level of budgetary outlays,
subsidies shall be eliminated within 10 years
– The remaining products shall be reduced so that by the
13th year, budgetary outlays and quantities shall be
reduced to zero
Domestic Support
• Developed Countries:
– Amber box (final bound total AMS) measures shall be reduced by
60% over a period of 5 years.
– Blue box measures shall be bound at the average level of the
period 1999-2001 and reduced by 50% over a period of 5 years.
• Developing Countries
– Amber Box measures shall be reduced by 40% in equal
installments over a period of 10 years.
– Blue box measures shall be reduced by 33% over a period of 10
years.
– Article 6.2 has been enhanced with additional measures
(concessional loans, risk management, etc.) which are exempt from
reduction commitments
Domestic Support: Green Box
• Green box measures shall be maintained.
• Proposal to include animal welfare and new
S & D elements, including support for
staple crops for food security purposes and
for maintenance of small scale family
farms.
Final Tariff Bindings on Rice
Country
China
Final Bound Tariffs
65
Columbia
189
Indonesia
160
Nigeria
150
Export Subsidies on Rice
EXPORT SUBSIDIES ON RICE
MEMBER
Columbia
EC
Indonesia
USA
Uruguay
Venezuela
MEMBER
Columbia
EC
Indonesia
USA
Uruguay
Venezuela
CURRENCY
US $ Millions
Euro Millions
US$ Millions
US$ Millions
US$ Millions
US$ Millions
UNIT
tonnes
tonnes
tonnes
tonnes
tonnes
tonnes
YEAR
Ano civil
Marketing year
Calendar year
Year beginning with Oct. 1
Año de commercialisation
Calendar year
1999
2000
Commitment level Notified Oultay Percent Utilized Commitment level Notified Oultay Percent Utilized
105.67
0
0
102.52
0
0
40.40
26.4
65
36.80
32.3
88
24.95
0
0
24.27
0
0
5.04
0
0
2.37
n.a.
1.31
0
0
1.28
n.a.
0.25
n.a.
0.24
n.a.
YEAR
Año Civil
1 September - 31 August
Calendar year
year beginning with July 1
Año de commercialisation
01/01 al 31/12
1999
2000
Commitment level Notified VolumesPercent Utilized Commitment level Notified VolumesPercent Utilized
17734
0
0
17440
0
0
139300
140400
101
133400
132300
99
278767
0
0
274571
0
0
85175
0
0
38554
n.a.
49432
0
0
48686
n.a.
1225.13
n.a.
1206.69
n.a.
Domestic Support Notified
Non-Exempt Domestic Support
(US$ Millions)
Australia*
Brazil*
Chile
EC*
Hungary*
Indonesia
Japan*
Korea*
Philippines
Thailand*
US*
TOTAL
Rice
Rice
Rice
Rice
Rice
Rice
Rice
Rice
Rice
Rice
Rice
1995
0
110
0
653
1996
0
47
0
649
1997
0
22
0
576
1998
0
26
0
478
1999
0
2000
262
27,597
2,614
10
352
12
22,705
2,374
33
498
6
19,540
1,981
21
299
6
1,077
8
394
21
1,264
31,348
26,312
22,445
2,004
1,264
262
Trends in Rice Production
and Trade
• Over the past twenty years, rice production, yield and
trade have all gone up.
– Production has gone up by 2.1 per cent annually.
– Trade measured by rice imports has gone up more at 2.7 per
cent.
– Area devoted to rice has only grown by 0.3 percent per
annum so that yields have gone up world-wide from 2.8
metric tons per hectare in 1980 to about 4 metric tons per
hectare in 2001.
Trends in Rice Trade
RICE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
1980-2000
35,000,000
30,000,000
Metric Tons
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
YEAR
Rice Exports
Rice Imports
Trends in Production
TRENDS IN RICE PRODUCTION
700,000,000
600,000,000
METRIC TONS
500,000,000
400,000,000
300,000,000
200,000,000
100,000,000
0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
YEAR
Increasing Trade in the 1990s
Production
Exports
Imports
Share of Exports
Share of Imports
1980-90
459,839,878
12,749,893
12,498,286
2.8%
2.7%
1991-95
532,286,870
17,318,722
17,071,436
3.3%
3.2%
1996-2000
587,121,994
23,578,937
22,854,606
4.0%
3.9%
Share of Trade in World
Production of Rice
SHARE OF RICE TRADE IN WORLD PRODUCTION
6.0%
5.0%
PER CENT
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
YEAR
Imports as Share of Production
Exports as Share of Production
Top Rice Traders in 2001
TOP TEN EXPORTERS IN 2001 TOP FIFTEEN IMPORTERS IN 2001
Thailand
Viet Nam
United States of America
Pakistan
India
China
Myanmar
Uruguay
Egypt
Australia
Côte d'Ivoire
Nigeria
Iraq
Philippines
Iran
Saudi Arabia
Brazil
Senegal
Japan
Indonesia
Korea, Dem People's Rep
United Arab Emirates
South Africa
Malysia
Cuba