Transcript LIFE ONLINE The impact of the changing media ecology 6.7.06

LIFE ONLINE
The impact of the changing media
ecology
6.7.06
Lee Rainie
ThinkTank06
Seton Hall University
Experts and information gatekeepers are challenged
There is a libertarian backlash
Crackpot ideas gain circulation
New institutions form
Fights over intellectual property break out
New cultures of identity multiply
New languages arise
!-(
Black eye
BRB:
Be Right Back
!-)
Proud of black eye
JK:
Just Kidding
#-)
Partied all night
LOL:
Laughing Out Loud
#:-o
Shocked
LYLAS: Love You Like a Sister
%*}
Inebriated
NP:
No Problem
%+{
Got beat up
OMG:
Oh My God
%-)
Dazed or silly
OTP :
On the Phone
%-6
Brain-dead
%-\
Hung over
POS:
Parent Over Shoulder
%-|
Worked all night
ROFL:
Rolling on Floor Laughing
%\
Hangover
TTYL:
Talk to You Later
>>:-<<
Furious
YW:
You're Welcome
Boundaries between public and private
break down
New professions emerge
Educational methods are changed
Elizabeth Eisenstein: “The Printing Press
as an Agent of Change” in the 15th Century
Reality 1
Media and gadgets are
ubiquitous parts of
everyday life
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Home media ecology - 1975
Product
Route to home
TV stations
phone
broadcast TV
broadcast radio
News
mail
Advertising
newspaper delivery
Display
Local storage
TV
radio
stereo
Cassette/ 8-track
Vinyl album
phone
paper
Radio Stations
non-electronic
Tom Wolzien, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co
New media ecology
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Home media ecology – now
Product
TV stations
Info
“Daily me”
content
Cable Nets
Web sites
Local news
Content from
individuals
Peer-to-peer
Advertising
Radio stations
Route to home
cable
phone/DSL
wireless
broadcast TV
Display
broadcast radio
satellite
mail
express delivery
iPod / storage
subcarriers / WIFI
newspaper delivery
Satellite radio
TV
radio
PC
iPod /MP3
stereo
monitor
headphones
pager
portable gamer
cell phone
phone
PDA/Palm
game console
non-electronic
Local storage
VCR
DVD
Web-based storage
server/ TiVo (PVR)
PC
web storage
CD/CD-ROM
MP3 player / iPod
pagers - PDAs
cable box
game console
paper
storage sticks/disks
Adapted from Tom Wolzien, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co
New media ecology
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New media ecology
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/D
VD
)
32.6
on
so
le
pa
pe
rs
R
Ne
ws
(V
C
32.8
Ga
me
c
ide
o
42.2
Al
lp
ri n
t
ce
ll )
pla
ye
rs)
inc
l.
MP
3
Ra
di o
nte
rn
et
us
e
80
Ph
on
e(
(in
c l.
Al
li
om
pu
ter
ion
100
93.4
Al
lv
Mu
s ic
An
yc
Te
lev
is
Minutes per day
Ball State: Media use on average day
300
240.9
200
135.8
65.1
12.2
11.6
0
16
Reality 2
Gadgets allow us to enjoy
media and carry on
communication anywhere
New media ecology
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Mobile devices
• 73% of adults
own cell
phones
• 45% of teens
own them
New media ecology
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The communications Swiss Army knife
Percentage of cell
owners who use this
feature now on their
mobile phones
Don’t use it now,
but would like to
have it
Send and receive text messages
35%
13%
Take still pictures
28%
19%
Play games
22%
12%
Access the internet
14%
16%
Send / receive email
8%
24%
Perform internet searches for
things like movie listings, weather
and stock quotes
7%
24%
Trade instant messages
7%
11%
Play music
6%
19%
Record their own video clips
6%
17%
Get mobile maps
4%
47%
Watch video or TV programs
2%
14%
Mobile devices
• 55% of adults
own digital
cameras
• 43% of teens
own them
New media ecology
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Mobile devices
• 43% of adults
own video
cameras
• 37% of teens
own them
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Mobile devices
• 30% of adults
own laptops
• 32% of teens
own them
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Mobile devices
• 20% of adults
own MP3
players
• ~40% of teens
own them
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Mobile devices
• 11% of adults
own a PDA or
Blackberry
• 7% of teens
own them
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Reality 3
The internet is at the center
of the revolution
New media ecology
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Internet and broadband adoption 1996-2006
80%
All internet - 147 mill.
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
Broadband - 83 mill.
20%
10%
New media ecology
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Mar-06
Mar-05
Mar-04
Mar-03
Mar-02
Mar-01
Mar-00
Mar-99
Mar-98
Mar-97
Mar-96
Mar-95
0%
26
Percentage of internet users
Use email
Info about about movies, TV
Play online games
Get new s
Use IM
Hunt for schools
Seek political new s
Dow nload music
Buy products
Read blogs
Share their ow n creations
Dow nload videos
Health info
Job info
Religious/spiritual info
Create w eb pages
Look for info that’s hard to discuss
Remix and share files
Create a blog
89
84
81
76
75
57
55
51
43
38
33
31
31
30
26
22
22
19
19
Download music – 51%
Share own creations – 33%
0
20
40
60
80
100
For a full list of activities tracked by PIP please go to:
http://www.pewinternet.org/trends/Internet_Activities_4.26.06.htm
Activities of young are not as great as their elders
New media ecology
Activities of young greatly outpace their elders
June 7, 2006
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Reality 4
Multi-tasking is a way of life
– and people live in a
state of “continuous partial
attention”
--- Linda Stone
New media ecology
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Multitasking and attention deficits:
What else were you doing when you last…
Watched
TV
Listened
to radio
Read a
newspaper
Used the Talked on
internet the phone
Watched TV
*
9%
38%
17%
54%
Listened to
radio
13
*
21
16
30
Read a
newspaper
43
21
*
2
14
Used the
internet
20
17
2
*
19
Talked on the
phone
57
25
14
18
*
Source: Forrester Research, 2004
New media ecology
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Kaiser Family Foundation, Generation M, March 2005
New media ecology
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Kaiser Family Foundation, Generation M, March 2005
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Reality 5
Ordinary citizens have a
chance to be publishers,
movie makers, artists,
song creators, and story
tellers
New media ecology
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Content creation
33% of online
teens share
their own
creations online,
such as artwork,
photos, stories,
or videos
New media ecology
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Content creation
32% have created or
worked on
webpages or
blogs for others,
including those for
groups they
belong to, friends
or school
assignments
New media ecology
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Content creation
22% report
keeping their
own personal
webpage
New media ecology
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Content creation
19% have created
their own online
journal or blog
New media ecology
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Content creation
19% say they
remix content
they find online
into their own
artistic creations
New media ecology
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Steve Bartman’s journey
New media ecology
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New media ecology
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Reality 6
The internet is becoming a
privileged information and
communications medium
and that changes
expectations and behavior
New media ecology
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Expectations of internet users– 2002
Expect to find online
Up-to-date news
85%
Basic government info
82%
Health / medical info
81%
Products and services info
79%
Locate a person
58%
New media ecology
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Internet use at major life moments
Total who
used internet
% relevant internet Overall
users who say int. growth > 2002
played crucial /
important role
Bought a car
(62.5 mill.)
29 million
27%
17 million
21%
Got more education /
training for career
(53 mill.)
35 million
39%
21 million
50%
Chose a school for me /
my child
(39.5 mill.)
27 million
45%
17 million
55%
Helped another with a
serious illness
(66.5 mill.)
33 million
24%
17 million
55%
Made major investment
(56 mill.)
29 million
29%
16 million
77%
Internet use at major life moments
Total who
used internet
% relevant internet
users who say int.
played crucial /
important role
Overall
growth >
2002
Found a new place to live
(32.5 mill.)
16 million
33%
11 million
25%
Changed jobs
(34 mill.)
14 million
25%
8 million
17%
Dealt myself with a major
illness
(26 mill.)
12 million
26%
7 million
16%
Got married
(7 mill.)
3 million
24%
1.6 million
63%
Reality 7
The mass market is
fragmenting and heavy
internet users are different
consumers from lighter
users and non-users
New media ecology
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Fragmented media environment
(% of all Americans who “regularly” go to news source: PRC People/Press)
70
60
50
Local TV
Natl TV news
40
Cable news
Newspapers
30
Radio
Online News
20
10
0
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Getting News on the Typical Day: Elite Broadband Users
Versus the Rest
(% of who say they get news from specific source ‘yesterday’)
“High-powered”
home broadband
All other home
broadband
59%
54%
National TV
52
46
Radio
53
47
Local paper
43
35
Internet
71
24
National paper
21
14
Average no. of sources
3.0
2.2
Number of cases
395
619
Local TV
Source: Pew Internet Project December 2005 survey.
Reality 8
Power, influence, and
relations between media
producers and consumers
change in a “prosumer”
world
New media ecology
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Industrial Age
Broadcast Model
Walter Cronkite
New York
Information Age
Many-to-many model
Gary Brolsma
New Jersey
Reality 9
Social networks matter
more and more in the
“Long Tail” world and in a
world where personal
tagging is commonplace
New media ecology
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Traffic
Amazon, Rhapsody/iTunes, Netflix
20%-40% of traffic or sales
in the “long tail”
Content
New media ecology
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The Internet’s Role in Making an Important Decision
What specific role did the internet play in the event for which the internet played an
important or crucial role?
For respondents who said the internet played a crucial or important role in buying a car, making a major investment, getting
additional career training, choosing a school for self or child, or helping someone with a major illness or health
condition.
Help you find advice and
support from other people
34%
Help you find information or
compare options
30
Help you find professional or
expert services
28
Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project March 2005 Survey. The margin of error ±5% for the 560 respondents to this
question.
Reality 10
Everything will change even
more in coming years
New media ecology
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The J-curve laws
• Computing power doubles every 18 months –
Moore’s law
• Storage power doubles every 12 months – disk
law
• Communications power doubles every 2-3 years
with improvements in fiber optics and
compression – Gilder’s law
– Spectrum power is enhanced with efficiency
improvements in spectrum allocation and use
New media ecology
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Smart mobs – Howard Rheingold
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Digital age shifts in learning -- Brown and Duguid
literacy
TEXT
literacy
TEXT+IMAGE
literacy
INFORMATION
NAVIGATION
RICH
MEDIA
learning
BEING TOLD
(authority based)
DISCOVERY, EXPERIENTIAL
reasoning
DEDUCTIVE
(linear)
DON’T KNOW
WON’T TRY
BRICOLAGE + JUDGMENT
(lateral)
action
DON’T KNOW – LINK, LURK & TRY
John Seely Brown and Paul Duguid, Social Life of Information
Life orientation moves from households to individual networks
Wellman’s vision
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Individualized Networking
Little Awareness of Context of Place
Multiple Specialized Relationships
Partial Membership in Multiple Networks
Long-Distance Relationships
More Transitory Relationships
Online Interactions Linked with Offline
More Uncertainty, More Maneuverability
Possibly Less Caring for Strangers
More Weak Ties
The Industrial Age education model
the clueless,
teacher-dependent
pupil
Underlying world view, Industrial Age education
All other
possible
inputs from
people,
Institutions
and
info sources
Expert knowledge
and processes
Teacher
Aides
Pupil
The Information Age education model
the net-savvy,
well-connected,
teacher-independent
end-user
Underlying world view, Information Age learner
my favorite
research
sites
my tagged
research aids
my online
tutors
my search
engine
my teachers
my peers
NET-SAVVY
LEARNER
qualityware
& communityware
my reference
materials and texts
my personal
network
Thank you!
Lee Rainie
Director
Pew Internet & American Life Project
1615 L Street NW
Suite 700
Washington, DC 20036
[email protected]
202-419-4500
New media ecology
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