Transcript Document 7277827

The HYSPLIT Model
Transport and Dispersion System
Roland Draxler, Barbara Stunder, and Glenn Rolph
NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL)
Silver Spring, MD
Why dispersion modeling?
• Radiological – Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC)
Washington per WMO Documentation on RSMC Support for Environmental
Emergency Response (WMO-TD/No. 778)
• Volcanic ash
• NOAA-FAA MOU on Volcanic Hazards Alert
• Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (Washington and Anchorage) per
ICAO* International Standards and Recommended Practices; Annex 3 to the
Convention on International Civil Aviation, Meteorological Service for
International Air Navigation
• Homeland Security – support WFOs
*ICAO:
International Civil Aviation Organization
System Description
Current Version
• Scripts and executables for
each application (radiological,
volcanic ash, homeland
security)
• Data and options hardwired
New Version
• Single executable
• Options controlled by unified
pre- and post-processing
scripts
• Software self-contained for
easy installation at backup
facilities
Meteorology
Current Version
New Version
radiological
• GFS on-demand (3 h)
-- 100 km subgrid
volcanic ash
• GFS pre-processed (6 h)
-- 191 km N/S hemispheric
-- comparable tropical
hls
• Eta pre-processed (3 h)
--12 km (CONUS)
• NMM-4 km on-demand (1 h)
• GFS pre-processed
-- one-degree global
-- 3 hourly
• Eta pre-processed
-- 12km (CONUS)
-- 3 hourly
• NMM on-demand
-- 4 km (hourly)
hls
Current version - input menu summaries
(note variability)
radiological
VAFTAD
PLEASE VERIFY THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION YOU HAVE ENTERED
1) ORG DESCRIPTION :
SDM
2) DESCRIPTION
:
1 (TEST - NO ALERT)
3) REGION
:
8 (N HEMIS - SUBGRID
AVN)
4) MAP CENTER LAT :
50.
5) MAP CENTER LON :
-110.
6) MAP RADIUS (DEG) : 30
7) VOLCANO NAME :
MT_ST_HELENS
8) VOLCANO LAT
:
46.20
9) VOLCANO LON
:
122.18
10) VOLCANO HEIGHT : 8363
11) ERUPTION HOUR : 12
12) ERUPTION DAY :
19
13) ERUPTION MONTH : 07
14) ERUPTION YEAR :
2004
15) ERUPTION DURATION: 01
16) ASH COLUMN TOP :
32,000
ARE THE VALUES CORRECT (Y/N):
PLEASE VERIFY/EDIT THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION
1) SIMULATION TYPE
:
Test of the RSMC Response System
2) METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS
: AVN
3) SITE IDENTIFICATION NAME :
CALVERT_CLIFFS-1
4) SITE LATITUDE (- is SOUTH) : 38.43
5) SITE LONGITUDE (- is WEST) : -76.44
6) (RELEASE TIME) YEAR
: 2004
7) (RELEASE TIME) MONTH
: 07
8) (RELEASE TIME) DAY
: 19
9) (RELEASE TIME) HOUR
: 18
10) View/Edit Advanced Parameters
ENTER NUMBER TO EDIT OR (Y) TO ACCEPT
VALUES:
VERIFY/EDIT ADVANCED PARAMETER SETTINGS
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
8)
9)
RUN DURATION
: 72
RELEASE DURATION
: 6
EMMISION RATE
: 0.1667
BASE OF RELEASE
: 10
TOP OF RELEASE
: 500
POLLUTANT SPECIES
: C137
(SAMPLING START) YEAR : 2004
(SAMPLING START) MONTH : 07
(SAMPLING START) DAY
: 19
ENTER NUMBER TO EDIT OR (Y) TO ACCEPT VALUES:
PLEASE VERIFY/EDIT THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION
1) ORG DESCRIPTION
: sdm
2) RUN DESCRIPTION
:
Test run of the on-demand HYSPLIT Model
3) METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS
: ETA
4) SOURCE IDENTIFICATION NAME : TEST
5) SOURCE LATITUDE (- is SOUTH) : 40.0
6) SOURCE LONGITUDE (- is WEST) : -90.0
7) (RELEASE TIME) YEAR
: 2004
8) (RELEASE TIME) MONTH
: 07
9) (RELEASE TIME) DAY
: 19
10) (RELEASE TIME) HOUR
: 19
11) RELEASE DURATION (HOURS)
: 1
12) TOP OF RELEASE (METERS)
: 50
13) System Priority
: LOW
14) View/Edit Advanced Parameters
ENTER NUMBER TO EDIT OR (Y) TO ACCEPT
VALUES:
VERIFY/EDIT ADVANCED PARAMETER
SETTINGS
1) RUN DURATION (HOURS)
: 48
2) EMISSION RATE (MASS/HOUR) : 1.0000
do not change emission rate unless it is known
3) BASE OF RELEASE (METERS) : 10
4) (SAMPLING START) YEAR
: 2004
5) (SAMPLING START) MONTH : 07
6) (SAMPLING START) DAY
: 19
7) TOP OF CONCENTRATION OUTPUT
LAYER (METERS) : 500
ENTER NUMBER TO EDIT OR (Y) TO ACCEPT
VALUES:
METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS
---------------------------------------1 ETA (12 km)
2 High Resolution Window (4 km)
---------------------------------------ENTER MODEL DESCRIPTION NUMBER:
New version - “review menu” summaries
(note similarity)
volcanic ash
radiological
hls
THIS IS THE REVIEW MENU... VERIFY/EDIT
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
THIS IS THE REVIEW MENU... VERIFY/EDIT
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
THIS IS THE REVIEW MENU... VERIFY/EDIT
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
1) RUN DESCRIPTION
: volcanic ash - test
2) METEOROLOGICAL DATA : GFS
3) VOLCANO NAME
: ST._HELENS
4) VOLCANO LATITUDE
(SOUTH IS NEGATIVE) : 46.20
5) VOLCANO LONGITUDE
(WEST IS NEGATIVE) : -122.18
SUMMIT HEIGHT
(enter 15 for advanced parameters)
6) (RELEASE TIME) YEAR : 2004
7) (RELEASE TIME) MONTH : 07
8) (RELEASE TIME) DAY
: 19
9) (RELEASE TIME) HOUR
: 12
10) (RELEASE TIME) MINUTE : 00
11) ERUPTION DURATION (hours) : 1.0
12) ASH COLUMN TOP (feet) : 32000
1) RUN DESCRIPTION
: Test of the RSMC Response System
2) METEOROLOGICAL DATA
: GFS
3) SITE NAME
: CALVERT_CLIFFS-1
4) SITE LATITUDE
(SOUTH IS NEGATIVE) : 38.43
5) SITE LONGITUDE
(WEST IS NEGATIVE) : -76.44
1) RUN DESCRIPTION
: Test run of the on-demand HYSPLIT Model
2) METEOROLOGICAL DATA
: ETA
3) SITE NAME
: TEST
4) SITE LATITUDE
(SOUTH IS NEGATIVE) : 40.
5) SITE LONGITUDE
(WEST IS NEGATIVE) : -90.
6) (RELEASE TIME) YEAR
: 2004
7) (RELEASE TIME) MONTH
: 07
8) (RELEASE TIME) DAY
: 19
9) (RELEASE TIME) HOUR
: 18
10) (RELEASE TIME) MINUTE
: 00
11) RELEASE DURATION (hours)
: 1.0
12) TOP OF RELEASE (meters, minimum 10): 50
13) ASH COLUMN TOP ESTIMATED label
(0=no 1=yes) : 0
14) N/A
15) View/Edit Advanced Parameters
6) (RELEASE TIME) YEAR
: 2004
7) (RELEASE TIME) MONTH
: 07
8) (RELEASE TIME) DAY
: 19
9) (RELEASE TIME) HOUR
: 18
10) (RELEASE TIME) MINUTE
: 00
11) RELEASE DURATION (hours) : 6.0
12) TOP OF RELEASE (meters, minimum 10):
500
13) RESULTS BASED ON DEFAULT INITIAL
VALUES label (0=no 1=yes) : 1
14) N/A
15) View/Edit Advanced Parameters
ENTER NUMBER TO EDIT OR (Y)
TO ACCEPT VALUES:
ENTER NUMBER TO EDIT OR (Y) TO ACCEPT
VALUES:
ENTER NUMBER TO EDIT OR (Y) TO ACCEPT
VALUES:
13) N/A
14) N/A
15) View/Edit Advanced Parameters
New Version – User Input via setup_hysplit script
• user is prompted for inputs
• run type (radiological, volcanic ash, hls)
• event location, release/eruption height and duration
• meteorology
• labeling information (test, etc.)
• then given chance to edit inputs and defaulted date/time of incident in the
“Review Menu”
• “Advanced Parameters Menu” is last option listed in the Review Menu
• contains less typically changed values
• output grid specs (center lat,lon, span, grid spacing, etc.)
• source specs (emission rate, particle/gas, deposition constants, half-life, etc.)
• model specs (puff/particle/combination, number of particles, etc.)
• not all features are available in all run types, but could easily be added
• SDMs and NWS/Alaska Aviation Weather Unit MIC have been trained in
the setup script.
New version - “Review Menu” radiological example
THIS IS THE REVIEW MENU... VERIFY/EDIT THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
1) RUN DESCRIPTION
: Test of the RSMC Response System
2) METEOROLOGICAL DATA
: ETA
3) SITE NAME
: CALVERT_CLIFFS-1
4) SITE LATITUDE (SOUTH IS NEGATIVE) : 38.43
5) SITE LONGITUDE (WEST IS NEGATIVE) : -76.44
6) (RELEASE TIME) YEAR
: 2004
7) (RELEASE TIME) MONTH
: 07
8) (RELEASE TIME) DAY
: 19
9) (RELEASE TIME) HOUR
: 18
10) (RELEASE TIME) MINUTE
: 00
11) RELEASE DURATION (hours)
: 6.0
12) TOP OF RELEASE (meters, minimum 10): 500
13) RESULTS BASED ON DEFAULT INITIAL VALUES label (0=no 1=yes) : 1
14) N/A
15) View/Edit Advanced Parameters
ENTER NUMBER TO EDIT OR (Y) TO ACCEPT VALUES:
New version - “Advanced Parameters Menu” radiological example
THIS IS THE ADVANCED PARAMETERS MENU... VERIFY/EDIT
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION.
1) RUN DURATION (hours) : 72
2) EMISSION RATE (per hour) : 0.1667
3) BASE OF RELEASE (meters) : 10
4) CONCENTRATION GRID #1
5) N/A
6) POLLUTANT
: C137
7) SETUP.CFG parameters
8) N/A
9) N/A
10) N/A
11) 2nd METEOROLOGY (use after ETA): undefined
12) N/A
13) RUN SEQUENCE NUMBER : 01
14) Override label CALVERT_CLIFFS-1 to TEST (0=no 1=yes) : 0
ENTER NUMBER TO EDIT OR (Y) TO ACCEPT VALUES:
New version - Advanced Parameters submenus radiological
VERIFY/EDIT CONC GRID #1 PARAMETER SETTINGS
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
8)
9)
10)
11)
12)
(SAMPLING START) YEAR
: 2004
(SAMPLING START) MONTH : 07
(SAMPLING START) DAY
: 19
TOP OF CONCENTRATION OUTPUT LAYER (m)
: 500
CENTER OF CONCENTRATION GRID LATITUDE
: 38.43
CENTER OF CONCENTRATION GRID LONGITUDE : -76.44
CONC GRID SPACING (decimal degrees) DLAT : 0.3
CONC GRID SPACING (decimal degrees) DLON : 0.3
CONC GRID SPAN (degrees) SPLAT : 90.
CONC GRID SPAN (degrees) SPLON : 180.
OUTPUT AVERAGING TIME (hours) : 24
N/A
ENTER NUMBER TO EDIT OR (Y) TO ACCEPT VALUES:
New version - Advanced Parameters submenus radiological (cont)
VERIFY/EDIT POLLUTANT PARAMETER SETTINGS
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
POLLUTANT ID
: C137
SET ALL DEFAULT DEPOSITION VALUES
DRY DEPOSITION VELOCITY (m/s) : .001
WET DEPOSITION IN-CLOUD (L/L) : 3.2E+5
WET DEPOSITION BELOW-CLOUD (/s) : 5.0E-5
RADIOACTIVE HALF-LIFE (days) : 10960.
ENTER NUMBER TO EDIT OR (Y) TO ACCEPT VALUES:
New version - Advanced Parameters submenus radiological (cont)
VERIFY/EDIT SETUP.CFG PARAMETER SETTINGS
1) INITD (initial distribution) : 4
2) KHMAX (maximum part duration, h) : 9999
3) NUMPAR (number of part to release): 500
4) ISOT (turbulence)
: 0
5) NDUMP (write PARDUMP)
: 0
6) KMSL (starting height reference): 0
7) reset defaults
ENTER NUMBER TO EDIT OR (Y) TO ACCEPT VALUES:
New Version – Output post-processing
• dependent on requirement/customer
• postscript, GIF, G3, GIS shapefile, GRIB for NAWIPS
Radiological Application
New Version
Current Version
• HYSPLIT 4.7, Dec 2003
• HYSPLIT 4.2, Nov 1999
• 1-deg GFS pre-processed
• 100-km GFS on demand
– and/or ETA-12, NMM-4
• Limited input in setup script
• More options in “advanced” menu
• Improved model physics …
– Gaussian random numbers
– Non-homogeneous turbulence
correction (stays well mixed)
– Option to use of ETA TKE fields
– Turbulent velocities for 3D
dispersion
• Latitude-longitude input data grids
• Dynamic array allocation
• Multi-processor simulations
Radiological Example
(shows sensitivity of dispersion to deformation field)
• Current Version (AVN)
• New Version (ETA)
Volcanic Ash Application
Current Version
• VAFTAD code last revised 1999
• 190-km GFS hemispheric grids
• Fixed 1-h integration time step
• Fixed particle size and mass
distributions
• Choice of fixed eruption
durations from 1 to 24 hours
• Pre-configured map domains
• Internal pressure coordinate
system
• Model rerun for ash reductions
New Version
HYSPLIT 4.7, Dec 2003
• 1-deg global GFS pre-processed
– and/or ETA-12
• Variable integration time step
(usually ~12 min)
• Particle initialization set in model
control file
• Eruption durations from smallest
model time step to run duration
permitted
• Automatic map optimization and
scaling
• Internal terrain following coordinate
system
• Ash reduction done automatically
Volcanic Ash Example – Soufrierre Hills, Montserrat
Dec 1997
• Current Version (VAFTAD)
• New Version (HYSPLIT)
• composite layer shown
• archived meteorology
Valid 12 UTC Dec 26
Valid 18 UTC Dec 26
Volcanic Ash Example (cont.)
• New Version (HYSPLIT,
archived meteorology)
VAAC analysis
Valid 15 UTC Dec. 26
Homeland Security Applications
Current Version
• HYSPLIT version 4.x
• Fine scale output every 3h
(+3h to +12h)
• Coarse output every 6h (+18h
to +48h)
New Version
• HYSPLIT 4.7, Dec 2003
• Fine scale output every 1h
(+1h to +4h)
• Coarse output every 3h (+7h to
+22h)
Homeland Security Example
• Current Version
• New Version
Future Upgrades Currently Being Tested
• Extend existing CONUS Eta to +84 hours
• Additional meteorological data grids
–
–
–
–
Eta over Alaska/North Pacific
CONUS Eta grid with hourly fields
Higher resolution GFS (0.5 deg)
Convert from pressure NMM to native sigma coordinates
• Output grids
– Hourly volcanic ash output for NAWIPS
– Host RSMC web page at NCEP
• Model Physics
– Automatic particle-puff transformations
– Short-range dispersion algorithms
– Partitioning TKE between horizontal and vertical
• Ensemble dispersion forecasts based on NCEP short-range
and global ensembles
Potential New Applications
• Forest fire smoke transport and dispersion
• Simple ozone chemistry (3-equation steady state or 7-equation
differential solution)
• PM10 air concentrations from dust storms
• 2-D transport on water surfaces
• Internal offset trajectory based ensemble
• Satellite “assimilation”