Transcript Document 7277345

Muslims and the West:
Testing the Clash of Civilizations Thesis
Pippa Norris and Ronald Inglehart
Structure
I.
II.
III.
The ‘clash of civilizations’ thesis
The policy issue
Hypotheses, survey data, and research design
Contrasts between West and Islam?
•
Support for democratic performance and principles
•
Or support for gender equality and sexual liberalization
IV.
Results and conclusions
•
Eros not Demos divides
I. The ‘Clash’ Thesis
(i) Societal values are based on civilizational cultures
based mainly on religion:
Western Christianity, Islamic, Orthodox, Latin American, Sinic,
Japanese, Hindu, Buddhist, Sub-Saharan Africa
(ii) The core cultural difference between the West and
Islam relate to democratic values
The separation of church and state, rule of law & social pluralism, institutions of
representative government “these concepts, practices and institutions form part of the
essential continuing core of Western civilization.” (pp70-71)
(iii) Cultural differences are at the root of much
international and domestic conflict in the post Cold
War era
Responses
1. Single Islamic culture from Jakarta to Riyadh
and Istanbul?
2. Even if there is a common Muslim culture, is it
antithetical to democratic values?
3. Deep divisions within Islamic societies - root
causes of radical fundamentalism lie in
structural differences between rich and poor
Core Hypotheses
1. ‘Clash’ thesis: The strongest contrast in
political values are between the West and
Muslim societies.
2. Modernization thesis: The strongest contrasts
between the West and Muslim societies relate
to issues of sexual liberalization and gender
equality, not democracy
II: Policy relevance
Ian Buruma ‘An Islamic democracy for Iraq?’NYT
5th Dec 2004
Is ‘Islamic democracy’ really possible?
Division of politics and religious authority?
Force ‘secularization’ in politics? Or ‘backlash’
“Islamic democracy has no track record”
Turkey? Indonesia? Iran?
Mean Change in democratization, FH 1972-2003
Democratization by region
3.00
2.00
3.02
1.00
1.30
1.10
0.83
0.50
0.53
0.30
0.00
-0.16
c&e europe
africa
s.america
w.europe
n.america asia-pacific scandinavia middle east
region name
Democratization by predominant religion
Mean Change in democratization, 1972-2003
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
2.58
1.00
1.67
0.50
0.83
0.66
0.46
0.00
orthodox
roman catholic
eastern
protestant
muslim
religious culture (classified from predominant religion, cia world factbook)
Predominant Muslim States
7.00
Type of state ( freedom
house)
semi-democracy
Syr
non-democratic
SAra
Turkm
freedom house mean pr&cl 1980-2003
Uzb
Taj
Sud
Maur
Guin
Aze
Chad
Ethi
Erit
6.00
Kaz
Alg
Niger
Alb
SLeo
Burk
Tun
Mald
Pak Indonesi
Leb Jor
5.00
Kuw
Nigeria
Mali
Comor
Mor
Malay
Turk
4.00
Bng
Sene
100
1,000
10,000
gdp per capita ppp 2000 (world bank 2002)
100,000
III. Evidence
World Values
Survey
WVS 1995-2001
70+ societies
Included in WVS
Included
(76)
Not yet included
(112)
World Religions
Major religion
(CIA Factbook 2001)
Buddhist
(11)
Hindu
(3)
Jewish
(1)
Muslim
(49)
Orthodox
(11)
Other
(9)
Protestant (46)
Roman catholic
(56)
Evidence
Countries classified by predominant religion
– 9 Islamic societies
– (Albania, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Morocco,
Pakistan, Turkey) (+ 2 Algeria & Indonesia)
– 10 other societies with Muslim minorities (eg India, Nigeria)
Control variables
•
•
•
•
Human Development Index
Political development (FH democracy)
Social factors (age, education, income, gender)
Strength of religiosity scale
Measures of political values
Disapprove of
Democratic
Performance
Scale1
Approve of
Democratic
ideals
Scale2
Approve of
religious
leadership
Scale3
V1
70
Democracies are indecisive and have too
much squabbling
.856
V1
71
Democracies aren’t good at maintaining
order
.854
V1
72
Democracy may have its problems but its
better than any other form of government
.858
V1
67
Approve of having a democratic political
system
.772
V2
00
Politicians who do not believe in God are
unfit for public office
.869
V2
02
.875
V1
65
It would be better for [this country] if more
people with strong religious beliefs held
public office.
Approve having experts, not government,
make decisions
V1
64
Approve having a strong leaders who does not
have to bother with parliament and elections
% Of total variance
Approve of
strong
leadership
Scale4
.870
.663
19.3
14.1
25.9
12.5
4.9
4.4
4.0
4.0
4.5
4.5
4.5
5.0
5.1
5.0
6.9
6.8
6.9
6.5
6.6
6.5
6.5
6.3
6.3
6.0
6.0
6.0
r
he
Ot e
s
ne
pa
a
Ja
ri c
Af
an
ar u
ah n d
b S Hi
Su
a
ri c
nice
SAi m e
p
ti n
ro
La
Eu
al
ntr
Ce
x
do ity
n
tho
O r is tia
hr
n C ic
ter am
e s Is l
W
a
ri c
nice
SAi m e
ti n
op
ur
La
lE
ra
nt
Ce
er
th
O se
ne
pa
a
Ja
ri c
Af
an
ar u
ah in d
bS H
Su
3.0
ox
o d nity
rth
O is tia
r
Ch i c
rn
te am
e s Is l
W
3.0
7.0
7.0
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.0
Approval of democratic ideals
IV: Results –
Democratic performance and Ideals
6.5
Tanz
6.0
P ol
B raz
Rus
Fr
5.5
S lov
V en
Rom
Ukr
Mol
Li th
B ela
Czec h
S wi
B elg
P hil
P eru
Mac
5.0
Turk
Ty pe of society
A lb
Chil
Nor
DomR
S erb
NZ
Ita
Uru US
4.5
Fi n
Zi m
Other
China
GB
S we
Jap
Lux
NIre
Ort hodox
B os
E gy
B ng
A us
4.0
Is l am ic
A ze
Ger
Wes tern
Ic e
3.5
Rs q = 0.3057
2.5
3.0
3.5
Disapprov e of democratic Ideals
4.0
4.5
5.0
3.8
4.6
4.0
6.0
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.8
5.6
5.8
5.8
5.8
6.0
r
he
Ot e
s
ne
pa
a
Ja
ri c
Af
an
ar u
ah in d
bS H
Su
a
ri c
nice
SAi m e
p
ti n
ro
La
Eu
al
ntr
Ce
x
do ity
n
tho
O r is tia
hr
n C ic
ter am
e s Is l
W
3.0
er
th
i ca
O
sAefr
nne
para
Jaaha
bS
Su
3.4
3.6
3.7
i ca
nicer
SAi m
e
ti n
op
La
ur
lE
ra
nt
Ce
ox
od
y
rth
nit
O
tia
ris
Ch i c
rn m
te la
e s Is
W
3.0
7.0
7.0
5.2
5.0
4.9
4.0
Approve of st rong leaders
Results: Leadership
7.0
Tanz
6.5
Jor
Rom
6.0
B ul
Nigeria
Turk
S erb
E gy
Hung
S lov k
S lov
E Ger
Lux
P ol
GB
Fi n
Mex
Zi m
B ela
A us
Lat
Rus
5.5
Czec h
S Afr
Cro
Type of s ociety
Iran
P hil
V en
Other
Uga
Orthodox
Chil
Ita
Can
S we
Ire
Sp
Neth
Den
5.0
E st
Islamic
US
Ic e
Western
Greece
Rsq = 0.3803
4.5
2
3
4
5
Approve of religious leaders
6
7
8
Gender equality scale
* MENPOL
“On the whole, men make better political leader than women do.”
* MENJOBS
“When jobs are scarce, men should have more right to a job than women.”
* BOYEDUC
“A university education is more important for a boy than a girl.”
NEEDKID
“Do you think that a woman has to have children in order to be fulfilled or is
this not necessary?”
*
SGLMUM
“If a woman wants to have a child as a single parent but she doesn’t want
to have a stable relationship with a man, do you approve or disapprove?”
Support for gender equality
90
80
Western
70
60
Typ e of Society
Western C hristian
Islamic
50
I slamic
40
1900-1916
Ot her
1927-1936
1917-1926
1947-1956
1937-1946
1967-1976
1957-1966
1977-1984
Approval of homosexuality
7
6
5
4
3
Typ e of s ociety
2
Western C hristian
1
I slamic
0
1900-1916
Ot her
1927-1936
1917-1926
1947-1956
1937-1946
1967-1976
1957-1966
1977-1984
“Please tell me for each of the following statements whether you think it can always be justified, never be justified, or
something in between, using this card from 1 (never justifiable) to 10 (Always justifiable).” …Homosexuality
Approval of divorce & abortion
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
Approval of abortion
7
3
2
1
1900-1916
1927-1936
1917-1926
1947-1956
1937-1946
Type of s ociety
1967-1976
1957-1966
1977-1984
Type of s ociety
3
Western Christian
Western Christian
2
Islamic
Islamic
Other
1
Other
1900-1916
1927-1936
1917-1926
1947-1956
1937-1946
1967-1976
1957-1966
1977-1984
COHORT
“Please tell me for each of the following statements whether you think it can always be justified, never be justified, or
something in between, using this card from 1 (never justifiable) to 10 (Always justifiable).” …divorce/ …abortion
Multivariate models e.g.
Approve of Democratic Performance
Developmental controls
Level of human development (100-point scale)
Level of political development
Social controls
Age (Years)
Gender (Male=1)
Education (3 categories low to hi)
Income (10 categories low to hi)
Religiosity scale (100-pt low to hi)
Type of society
Islamic
Orthodox
Central European
Latin American
Sinic
Sub-Saharan African
Hindu
Japanese
(Constant)
Adjusted R2 Block 1 (Control variables only)
Adjusted R2 Block 2 (Controls + type of society)
B
St. Err.
Beta
Sig
-2.4
0.16
.1.0
.06
-.02
.01
**
**
-0.05
0.41
1.56
0.01
-0.01
.01
.12
.07
.01
.01
-.05
.01
.08
.02
-.02
***
***
***
***
***
1.3
-8.9
-5.4
-6.1
1.4
-3.6
-8.9
3.4
68.8
.01
.05
.34
.25
.21
.24
.45
.43
.61
.50
.94
.03
-.18
-.11
-.11
.01
-.05
-.06
.02
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
Multivariate models
Approve of
gender equality
0-100
Scale
Approve of
homosexuality
1-10
Approve of abortion
Approve of divorce
1-10
1-10
B
St.
Err.
Bet
a
Sig
B
St.
Err.
Bet
a
Sig
B
St.
Err.
Bet
a
Sig
B
St.
Err.
Bet
a
Sig
Islamic
-8.2
.35
-.18
***
-1.9
.05
-.18
***
-0.67
.05
-.07
***
-0.25
.05
-.03
***
Orthodox
-8.9
.30
-.17
***
-2.1
.04
-.26
***
0.24
.04
.03
***
-0.20
.04
-.03
***
Central European
-6.6
.30
-.09
***
-1.6
.03
-.18
***
0.24
.03
.03
***
0.01
.03
.01
N/s
Latin American
2.6
.25
.05
***
-1.0
.03
-.11
***
-1.20
.03
-.14
***
0.15
.04
.02
***
Sinic/Confucian
-0.3
.69
-.01
N/s
-2.9
.07
-.13
***
-2.10
.06
-.10
***
-2.30
.07
-.11
***
Sub-Saharan African
7.3
.42
13
***
-0.6
.06
-.05
***
-0.08
.06
-.01
N/s
0.29
.06
.03
***
Hindu
3.4
.53
.03
***
-1.2
.08
-.05
***
-0.05
.08
-.01
N/s
-0.10
.08
-.01
N/s
Japanese
-14.4
.52
-.09
***
-1.5
.06
-.06
***
-0.45
.06
-.02
***
-0.05
.07
-.01
N/s
(Constant)
32.7
1.6
3.1
2.16
.26
.20
.23
.26
.33
.21
.26
.31
6347
6
999
80
1032
90
1054
32
Type of society
Adjusted R2 Block 1 (Control
variables only)
Adjusted R2 Block 2 (Controls +
type of society)
N.
Conclusions
1.
2.
3.
4.
Western and Muslim societies similar faith in
democratic performance and ideals.
Main contrast on these issues is Orthodox postCommunist nations v. West and Islam
Differences between Western and Muslim societies
exist on religious authorities and strong leaders, but
this is also evident in Africa and Latin America.
Persistent and growing gap between West and
Muslim societies on issues of gender equality and
sexual mores.
Huntington’s response
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Cite critics but don’t say whether we agree or disagree with them (true).
We suggest that Huntington claims that there is an inherent conflict between
Islam and democracy: yet in the Third Wave he suggests that there are two
sides to this unresolved issue.
‘Paradox of democracy’: those arguing most strongly for democratic
elections in Muslim societies are often fundamentalist populists seeking to
gain power
The WVS is a great contribution which allows systematic survey evidence to
prove what he could not demonstrate earlier: culture matters.
Modernization and Westernization distinct: “The West was the West before it
started to modernize.” Modernization produces change but not necessarily
convergence.
Implications for Iraq?
Case-study discussion: Wed 7th Dec
You have been asked by the US
Institute of Peace to produce an
independent consultancy report
recommending priorities in
rebuilding Iraq during the next
decade.
The mandate of the United States
Institute of Peace, as established
by Congress, is to support the
development, transmission, and
use of knowledge to promote
peace and curb violent
international conflict.
Drawing upon one of the key
theories developed during this
course, you are asked to evaluate
the available evidence and to
present a series of
recommendations to this agency.
The reports will be presented by a
spokesperson for each group in
class on Wednesday 7th Dec.
Institutions
Lijphart
Culture
Inglehart
Ethnic conflict
Huntington
Case-study
Rebuilding
Iraq
Economic
development
Przeworski
Participation
Norris
Social capital
Putnam
More details:
www.pippanorris.com
Ronald Inglehart and Pippa Norris
Sacred and Secular (CUP 2004)
Foreign Policy March 2003