Transcript Document 7252842

Warnings and Geographic Information Systems
For the National Weather Service
Ken Waters
Regional Scientist
Pacific Region Headquarters
National Weather Service, Honolulu HI
July 13, 2005
Silver Spring, MD
Polygon Team

Created to help move the NWS from county-based warnings to
polygon-based warnings
Feb. 2004: Regions meet to study this issue
Mar. 2004: Meeting Information presented to MSD Chiefs
Apr. 2004: Gen. Johnson asks PR Regional Director Jeff
LaDouce to commission a polygon warning team
June 2004: Meeting information presented to Ops
Committee
June 2004: Polygon Team Chartered
Aug. 2004: First formal Polygon Team Meeting
Sep. 2004: Verification Scoring Sub-team Launched
Jan. 2005: AMS Presentation
Mar. 2005: Prototype Test Started
Sep. 2005: Scheduled end of Polygon Prototype Test

TEAM MEMBERS:

Mike Looney, CRH (facilitator)
Mike Coyne, MIC Huntsville MS
Steve Naglic, WCM WFO Columbia SC
Pete Wolf, SOO WFO Jacksonville FL
Jeff Lorens, WRH
Brent McAloney, OCWWS
Doug Young, OCWWS
Noreen Schwein, CRH
Joe Shaffer, SPC
Rich Okulski, OAA
Ken Waters, PRH

Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
County vs. Polygon

Latitude/Longitude points at the bottom of all TORs, SVRs,
FFWs, and SMWs.
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Polygon Advantages
Polygon Eliminates
Area False
Alarmed
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Prototype Test
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Polygon Team Challenges

Software Issues

Workload Concerns

Verification

Dissemination
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Jackson MS Apr 5-7
“Trial by fire”
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Example: FFW issued July 10th,
2005 (remnants of Hurr. Dennis)
10 counties warned in west central
Alabama---results in 25 vertices due
to Warngen constraining boundaries
to political county boundaries!
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Example: FFW issued July 10th,
2005 (remnants of Hurr. Dennis)
Using the polygon method
reduces the definition to only
5 vertices, covers largely the
same constituency, and
allows the forecaster much
more flexibility to warn for
the area the hazard is
expected---rather than for
county boundaries.
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Another Example---Warngen
Simplifying Polygon to County
Boundary
Tornado warning issued
for Dent Co. MO
What happens if the
tornado crosses like….
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Offices Not Watching Size of
Pathcast in Warngen
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Another interesting case study,
May 30, 2004
30/2314Z: WFO St. Louis
forecaster issued tornado
warning for Washington Co.
IL, conforming the polygon
to “more or less” the shape
of the county
30/2319Z: WFO
Paducah issued tornado
warning for neighboring
Perry Co. IL
30/2330Z: Confirmed tornado
touchdown in Dubois,
Washington County IL
The irony of all this?:
Using polygons as issued by the WFO’s, this event was
unwarned! Using legacy county verification, WFO St. Louis
warned for the event.
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Now that I’ve got your attention…..
Let’s talk some about
GIS and how it can
relate to the National
Weather Service…….
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
What is a GIS?


Geographic Information
System
DEFINITION: An organized
collection of computer
hardware, software,
geographic data, and
personnel designed to
efficiently capture, store,
update, manipulate, analyze,
and display all forms of
geographically referenced
information
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
GIS Data

Collection of:
• Points

Surface observations
• Lines


Hurricane tracks
Tornado trajectories
• Polygons



Short-fuse warnings
(TOR, SVR, FFW, SMW)
Watches (SPC Outline)
Other watches/warnings
using preexisting
polygons such as county
outlines
• 3-dimensional objects

Volumetric river basins
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
GIS Data Formats


Most commonly used
standard is the ESRI
“shapefile”, which is widely
supported across industry.
Each shapefile (also known
as a theme or layer) is
composed of at least three
file components which
describe the geographic
(latitude/longitude)
coordinates and data
attributes that make up
each shape
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
GIS Software

Desktop
•
•
•
•

ESRI ArcGIS
ESRI ArcView
MapDesk
Public Domain: GRASS
Server
• ESRI ArcIMS
• ESRI ArcGIS Server
• Public Domain: UMinn Mapserver

Non-GIS Software
• AWIPS (uses shapefiles)
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
NWS Data

Uses formats not familiar
to GIS users:
• WMO GRIB1 & 2


NDFD Grids
NCEP Models
• WMO Binary Universal
Form for the
Representation (BUFR) of
meteorological data

Soundings etc.
• Level II & Level III radar

Unique binary format in
radial format around a
single station
ALL are already georeferenced!
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Convergence
Looking for ways to merge
hydrometeorologic data with GIS
Convert NWS data sets into
georeferenced, GIS-friendly formats
-
Disseminate NWS data using GIS
structure such as Internet Mapping
Systems
-
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
One Example…

Converting warning polygons into
GIS/georeferenced data files
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Archiving short-fused NWS warnings since mid2003.
Converting then-little-used polygons at the bottom
of the warnings to GIS data sets using AWIPS
and freeware software tools
Interesting patterns result, especially when the warning sets
are shown over time…
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Step 1: Capture the polygon
points

Set up a “trigger”
mechanism in AWIPS to
capture all short-term
warnings:
• TOR – tornado warnings
• SVR – severe
thunderstorm warnings
• FFW – flash flood warnings
• SMW – special marine
warnings
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Step 2: Parse the warning text
Extract all the
needed
information:
Issue Time
UGC
Expiration Time
VTEC line
….and….of course…
…the polygon
vertices
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Step 3: At scheduled intervals update
the “flat file” database

Using only open source (“freeware”) software
•
•


Code written in Perl
Polygon values formatted in ESRI “gen” format
“gen” format is common ASCII format that
ESRI products can convert to/from using
scripts
Check for new warnings each minute –andcheck for expired warnings each minute as well
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Step 4: Convert “gen” format into
standard shapefile format
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
The long-term database can then be used in
a variety of ways to provide post-analysis
and to look for trends (both weather-related
as well as policy-related)
Examples:
• Area of polygon (warned areas)
• Verification studies (e.g. compare LSR with warnings
• Provide summaries of storm seasons
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Examples –
Tornado Warnings 2004
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Examples –
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings 2004
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Examples –
Flash Flood Warnings in 2004
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Special Marine Warnings
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Converting LSR Data into GIS
Shapefiles
TORNADO REPORTS
Jan-Jun 2005
Note the remarkable paucity of
confirmed tornado reports for 2005!
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
…in contrast to….
One remarkable day, May 30th 2004 when severe weather broke out
from Texas to Iowa to the Carolinas
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
GIS Allows Interactive Analysis Such as
Overlaying Polygon Warnings With Storm Reports
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Converting LSR Data into GIS
Shapefiles
HAIL REPORTS Jan-Jun
2005
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Converting LSR Data into GIS
Shapefiles
WIND REPORTS JanJun 2005
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Tendency to align warnings to county
borders continued in 2004
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Flash Flood Warnings
the most “county-based” of all four shortfuse warning types
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Applications For Viewing
Polygon Warnings

CONUS map showing warnings, updated each
minute:
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/

ArcIMS map service for historical viewing:
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/

Texas A&M Site (warnings + radar):
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/warn.html

Iowa Mesonet:
http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml

New NWS RIDGE Site:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/RIDGE
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Busy Day….!
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
ArcIMS Map Service
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/warn.html
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Includes LSR data from SPC
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Texas A&M Mesonet Site
http://mesonet.tamu.edu/PolygonTest/
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Iowa Environmental Mesonet
http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
New RIDGE Site (hosted on SRH
Uses web technology to
server)
“simulate” an Internet
map server
Allows several different
radar products (including
SRM) on top of
hillshaded topography,
roads, counties, rivers
Includes ability to
animate and zoom
…and….an overlay of the
active warnings in effect
at the time of the radar
image
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Where do we go from here…..?

Look at a new type of All-Hazards radio
• Focusing on points in space rather than geopolitical
counties
• Fixed radio could be programmed with location (either
latitude/longitude, or relative to major city [e.g., 20 mi
NW of Houston]
• Moving radios (including cell phones, PDA devices, allhazard radios in cars, buses, trains) could be located
using the now more commonly found GPS units
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
New NOAA Radio Concept
Warning issued for Okmulgee and
McIntosh Counties. New NWR’s use
latitude/longitude (or city) rather
than county/SAME code.
Residents in Checotah will not be
alerted but residents in Stidham
are, even though both are in
McIntosh County.
GPS-enabled cell phones/cars
travelling on I-40 within polygon
would be alerted also.
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Where do we go from here…..?

Automated GIS techniques
• Greatly facilitate verification
• Provide more statistics (e.g., how many people were
warned with each warning by linking to population
databases)
• More robust web dissemination possibilities --- including
the ability to provide custom information based on user
criteria

ONE WARNING: care must be taken to consider private
sector concerns here as some businesses are also taking
this road
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Private Sector Opportunities
Why not work WITH private sector. Some private sector
companies are already strongly endorsing the polygon
warning methods
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Why GIS….?
1. Compatibility with many other
public, private, and government
agencies that already use GIS data
for their work and analysis
2. GIS has great analysis
capabilities…able to do “what if”
analysis and look for trends
3. Using polygon warnings we can
provide better service by
highlighting where the real threat is
without worrying about geopolitical
boundaries
4. A BETTER SERVICE TO OUR PUBLIC!
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region
Questions?

My Website:
• http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hq/regsci/gis
Ken Waters
Regional Scientist
NWS Pacific Region
Honolulu, Hawaii
[email protected]
(808) 532-6413
Ken Waters, NWS Pacific Region