Transcript Document 7251296

National Seismic Hazard Mapping
Project of JAPAN
National Research Institute for Earth Science and
Disaster Prevention (NIED)
Hiroyuki Fujiwara
Background of the Project

Headquarters of Earthquake Research Promotion was
established in accordance with Earthquake Disaster
Management Special Measures Act (1995).

Promotion of Earthquake Research
－Comprehensive and Fundamental Measures for Promotion
of Observation, Measurement and Research on Earthquakes
－（April 23, 1999）
Earthquake research requiring immediate promotion
１．Preparation of seismic hazard maps based on surveys of active faults, longterm evaluations of the probability of earthquake occurrence, and
evaluations of strong ground motion
２．Promotion of real-time transmission of earthquake information
３．Improvement of observation system for earthquake disaster prevention
４．Promotion of observation and research for earthquake prediction
Structure of the Headquarters for
Earthquake Research Promotion
Headquarters
Policy Committee
Subcommittee for Survey and
Observation Plans
Budget Subcommittee
Subcommittee for Instituting
Results in Society
Earthquake Research
Committee
Subcommittee for
Long-term Evaluations
Subcommittee for Evaluations of
Strong Ground Motion
System for the national seismic hazard mapping project
Surveys for
active faults
Evaluation of methods for prediction of strong-motion
Study on methods
to make probabilistic
seismic hazard maps
Study on methods
to make scenario
earthquake maps
Publication system
for hazard maps
Long-term evaluations
Evaluations of Strong-motion
General Seismic Hazard Map covering the whole Japan
Duties of NIED
Duties of Earthquake Research committee
Advanced map
Surveys for
underground
structure
Seismic hazard mapping project in NIED
Study on probabilistic
seismic hazard maps
Study on scenario
earthquake maps
Study on
deaggregation
Development of publication system
for seismic hazard maps
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map
An example of seismic hazard maps has shown information predicting possibility
that a certain area is attacked by strong ground motion in a certain term by means
of probability. (Comprehensive Fundamental Measures, 1999)
Feature
・It is what has exhibited, by fixing two
parameters among term, strong-motion
level and probability, distribution of
remaining one on the map.
・Use of occurrence probability of each
earthquake.
・All possible earthquakes are considered.
・It does not show ground motion caused
by an earthquake at the same time.
Example of probabilistic map
Flowchart of SHA
Modeling of seismic activity
(Earthquake research committee)
Evaluation of occurrence probability of earthquakes
Probabilistic evaluation of strong-motion level
Evaluation of probabilistic seismic hazard for each
earthquake
Evaluation of probabilistic seismic hazard for all
earthquakes
Strong-motion evaluation in SHA
Modeling of seismic activity
Attenuation relation
(Si & Midorikawa 1999)
PGV on the engineering bedrock
Site amplification
(Matsuoka & Midorikawa
1994)
PGV on the ground surface
Empirical formula
(Midorikawa et al. 1999)
JMA seismic intensity
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps
Major 98 active fault zones and the
occcurance areas of the subduction
earthquakes considered to study the
seismic hazard map in western part of
Japan
Treatment of occurrence probability of earthquakes given by
long-term evaluation the earthquake research committee
Example of long-term evaluation of earthquake activity
（Western Lake Biwa Fault zone)
Average recurrence Elapsed time since
the latest earthquake
interval （L)
（T）
1900 years ～
4500 years
2400 years ～
2800 years
Occurrence probability
in 30 years （P)
0.09% ～ 9%
How should we treat the occurrence probability given
by an interval?
Are occurrence probabilities of earthquakes in 98 major
active fault zones reasonable?
In 98 major active fault zones, 11 large
earthquakes occurred in last 200 years.
Average interval is 18.4 years.
(Earthquake Research Committee of Japan)
How to calculate P from L and T given by intervals?
１．Ｐ（Ｌｍｉｎ，Ｔｍａｘ）
（Ｍａｘｉｍｕｍ ｃａｓｅ）
２．Ｐ（Ｌｍｅｄ，Ｔｍｅｄ） （Ｍｅｄｉａｎ ｃａｓｅ）
３． 
L

T
w( L, T )  P( L, T )dTdL
４．（Ｐ（Ｌｍｉｎ，Ｔｍａｘ）＋Ｐ（Ｌｍａｘ，Ｔｍｉｎ））／２
0.15
最大ケース
確 0.1
率
0.05
0
0.2
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
2004年から200年間の地震発生数
平均ケース
確
Case 1
11.6 / 200 years
0.15
率 0.1
Case 2
6.1 / 200 years
0.05
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
2004年から200年間の地震発生数
0.2
積分平均ケース
確
0.15
率 0.1
Case 3
5.7 / 200 years
0.05
0
0.2
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
2004年から200年間の地震発生数
確率平均ケース
確
0.15
率 0.1
0.05
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
2004年から200年間の地震発生数
Case 4
7.7 / 200 years
(Case 2)
(Case 1)
JMA seismic intensity of 3% in 30 year probability of
exceedance (earthquakes in 98 major fault zones)
Scenario Earthquake Shake Maps
Seismic hazard maps with specified seismic source fault
Scenario earthquake shake maps
on the engineering bedrock
Scenario earthquake shake maps
on the ground surface
1 km2
1 km2
Peak ground acceleration (PGA)
△
×
Peak ground velocity (PGV)
○
○
Spectral acceleration (SA)
△
×
JMA seismic intensity
×
○
Time history of waveform
○
×
Mesh size
Distribution of peak ground velocity on the
engineering bedrock.
Distribution of JMA seismic intensity on the
ground surface.
Scenario Earthquake Shake Maps
Theoretical approach for
evaluation of strong-motion
Amplification due to soft soil near surface
Complicated
source process
Wave propagation in a
heterogeneous medium
Amplification due to
thick sediment
Hybrid method for evaluation of strong-motion
Low frequency range
Matching filter
Low
frequency
range
Finite Difference Method
High
frequency
range
High frequency range
Stochastic Green’s function method
低周波＋高周波
Superposition
deterministic
Stochastic
Characterized Source Model
Complicated source model
Characterized source model
Characterized source model for Nankai Earthquake
Characterized source model for Tonankai Earthquake
Modeling of underground structure
Seismic bedrock
（Vs=3km/s）
Deep underground
structure
Source
In modeling of underground structure, we consider
the deep underground structure from the crust and
plates up to seismic bedrock (Vs=3km/s), the
structure of sediments from the seismic bedrock
up to engineering bedrock (Vs=400m/s～700m/s),
and the structure of surface soils from the
engineering bedrock up to the ground surface.
Flowchart of structure modeling
Sediment
Surface
soil
Engineering bedrock
（Vs=0.4～0.7km/s）
Verification of methodology for strong-motion evaluation
The Tokachi-oki earthquake (MJMA8.0) struck the northern
Japanese island of Hokkaido on 26th September 2003.
The 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake was the first large interplate
earthquake recorded by the nation-wide strong-motion networks,
K-NET and KiK-net.
Verification of methodology for strong-motion
evaluation of earthquakes in plate boundaries.
The 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake (2003 9/26 Mj 8.0)
Peak Ground Acceleration
K-NET/KiK-net
Peak Ground Velocity
K-NET/KiK-net
Rupture process of the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake
(Honda et al. 2004)

Estimated total slip distribution
Observed
Synthetic
Distribution of data for modeling underground structure
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-250000 -200000 -150000 -100000
Reflection surveys
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Refraction surveys
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HKD002
SOYH05
HKD001
HKD012
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SOYH01
HKD005
HKD013
HKD011
SOYH03 HKD014
SOYH04
SOYH02
HKD004
HKD006
SOYH07
HKD003
SOYH06
RMIH01
HKD007
SOYH08
HKD008
RMIH02
HKD015
SOYH09
HKD009
HKD025
KKWH09
SOYH10
HKD010
HKD026
HKD016
100000
RMIH03 KKWH10
HKD017HKD018
50000
HKD019
100000
KKWH01
HKD043
KKWH02 ABSH01
HKD042
HKD044
HKD027
KKWH03
KKWH04
ABSH02
ABSH03
HKD047
HKD028
KKWH06HKD045
HKD029
KKWH05
50000
HKD114
SRCH01
HKD048
ABSH06
ABSH04
HKD046
HKD030
HKD063
HKD052
HKD031
ABSH05
HKD061
HKD049
RMIH04SRCH02
ABSH08
ABSH10
HKD064
HKD024
HKD058
HKD051
RMIH05
HKD115 HKD032
SRCH03
KKWH11
ABSH09
HKD021
HKD060
ABSH11
HKD033
HKD050
ABSH12
HKD059
KKWH15
HKD034
HKD022
ABSH07
HKD055
HKD065
SRCH04 SRCH05
NMRH01
HKD116
HKD053 HKD054
HKD023
HKD036
HKD035
ABSH13
ABSH14
HKD117
HKD057
NMRH02
HKD066
SRCH06
HKD062 HKD056
HKD081
ABSH15
HKD041
HKD175
HKD037
HKD067
NMRH03
HKD118
HKD176
HKD080
SRCH08 HKD119KKWH13KKWH12
HKD088
TKCH01
HKD082
KSRH01
HKD068
NMRH04
HKD069
HKD070
HKD074
IKRH01
KSRH03NMRH05
HKD177
TKCH02
HKD073
KKWH07KKWH14
HKD120
HKD039
HKD137
TKCH10
HKD101
HKD121
HKD079
HKD093
HKD138
TKCH03
KSRH05
HKD071
HKD083
HKD089
SBSH01
KSRH10
HKD072
KSRH06 KSRH04
SRCH07
HKD179
IKRH02
HKD139HKD140
HKD122
HKD178
TKCH04
HKD094
KSRH08
HKD078
HKD038
HKD087
HKD141
HKD180HKD181
HKD090
HKD084KSRH07
KSRH02
TKCH05
HKD075
HKD142
SBSH03
HKD076
HKD099
SBSH02
SRCH09
KKWH08
HKD077
KSRH09
HKD182 HKD124 SRCH10
HKD123
HKD143
SBSH04
HKD040
HKD183
HKD085
SBSH05
HKD095 HKD092
HKD144
IKRH03IBUH01
HKD102
TKCH11TKCH06
HKD127 IBUH02
HKD086
SBSH06
TKCH07
HKD146 HKD145
HKD091
HKD149 HKD147
SBSH10
HKD185HKD184 HKD128
SBSH08
SBSH07
HKD125
HKD103
HKD150
HDKH02
HDKH01
HKD096
HKD148
HKD134
IBUH07
IBUH04
IBUH03
HKD129
SBSH09
HKD097
HKD174
HKD136
HKD126HKD104 HDKH03HDKH05
IBUH05
HKD130
HKD135
HKD020
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-150000
HYMH01
HKD164
HKD165
-200000
HKD151
HDKH04
HKD105
HKD133
HKD131
IBUH06
HKD132
HYMH03
HKD167
HKD108
-250000
HKD171
HKD109
HDKH07
HKD110
HKD153
HKD154
HKD155
HYMH02
HKD169
HKD168
HKD170
HKD161
-50000
-100000
-150000
HKD098
TKCH08
HKD107
HDKH06
HKD106
HKD152
HKD172 HKD166
HKD173
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HKD100
-200000
HKD113
HKD111
HKD112
HKD156 HKD157
OSMH02
HKD158
HKD160
HKD159
-250000
OSMH01
AOMH01
AOM001
HKD162
HKD163
AOMH02
-300000
AOM003
AOM004
AOM002
AOM025
AOM026
AOM005
AOMH03
AOM007
AOM006
AOM027
AOM008
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AOM024
AOM023
AOM022
AOM009
AOMH06
-350000
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-50000
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K-NET・KiK-net
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Microtremor surveys
Subsurface structure in Hokkaido Area
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Numerical simulation
Velocity waveforms[cm/s]: Filter 5-25s
Hybrid simulation (FDM+SGM) using characterized source model
Observed
Comparison of Peak Ground Velocities
Hybrid
PGV(Syn.)
Hybrid method
PGV(Obs.)
Stochastic Green’s Function Method
PGV(Syn.)
SGM
PGV(Obs.)
PGV
Observed / Synthesis
Publication system for seismic hazard maps
Seismic Hazard Station
Strong-motion Monitoring
Strong-motion simulator
＋
＋
Integrated
Geological
Information
System
Seismic Hazard Station
Probabilistic
University
Research
Seismic Fragility
Scenario
Publication
Seismic Risk
Assessment
Local
government
Hazard
Assessment
Seismic Risk
Management