Transcript Document 7250964

Joint OSSE
August 28, 2008
1 Summary from subgroup meeting
a. ADM Aeolus preprocessor
b. Meso-Regional OSSEs
c. GMAO Observation Simulator
2. Evaluation of T511 and T799 NR
Thomas Jung
3. New Projects
Lidia Cucurull
4. Plan for calibration and simulation of observation
5. Estimated resource requirements
6. Future direction of Nature Run
More surface fields in 1x1 for T511 NR?
Next meeting
707 available:
10/16, 23, 30 11/6,27
12/4,18
We can negotiate Rm 209 for other
date
David Tan visited US and demonstrate
installation of L2b processor
Talk_Tan_AeolusDataProcessing_JCSDA_20080710.sml.ppt
Manual is posted
JointOSSEs->Manuals->ADM/L2BP_Release1.33_doc/
Start from Sofrware Release Note
AE-RN-ECMWF-L2BP-001_20080229_SRN_Iss1.33.pdf
Relevant material for L2b data format
AE_SAF_KNMI_L2BP_003_Setup_Guide.v1.1.20080520.pdf
pseudoPilot.f
At NCEP Greg Krasowski (JCSDA and work with Dennis Keiser) will
work on preprocessor.
Produ
ct
ADM-Aeolus Data Products
Contents
Level 0 Time ordered source packets with ALADIN
measurement & housekeeping data
Processor
developer
and location
MDA (Canada)
Size in
MByte/orbi
t
47
Tromsø (Norway)
Level
1b
Geo-located, calibrated observational data
MDA (Canada)
 preliminary HLOS wind profiles (standard
atmosphere used in Rayleigh processing) – not
suitable for assimilation
Tromsø (Norway)
 spectrometer readouts at “measurement” scale (
1-5 km ) – input for Level 2a/b processing
10-15
(BUFR)
+
22 (EE XML
Format)
 viewing geometry & scene geo-location data
Level
2a
Level
2b
Supplementary product
 Cloud profiles, coverage, cloud top heights
DLR-IMF
(Germany)
 Aerosol extinction and backscatter profiles,
ground reflectance, optical depth
Tromsø (Norway)
Meteorologically representative HLOS wind
observations
HLOS wind profiles at “observation” scale ( ~ 50
ECMWF
Reading (UK)
(and other
12
18
Ongoing ADM-Aeolus Scientific
Studies
Title
Team
Consolidation of ADM-Aeolus Ground
Processing including L2A Products
DLR Germany
Météo-France, KNMI, IPSL, PSol
Development and Production of Aeolus
Wind Data Products
ECMWF UK
Météo-France, KNMI, IPSL, DLR, DoRIT
ADM-Aeolus Campaigns
DLR Germany
Météo-France, KNMI, IPSL, DWD, MIM
Optimisation of spatial and temporal
sampling
KNMI Netherlands
Tropical dynamics and equatorial waves
MISU Sweden
Rayleigh-Brillouin Scattering Experiment
tbd
ESA plans an Announcement of Opportunity AO for ADM-Aeolus scientific use of data
for late 2008 – distinct from the AO for Cal/Val
KNMI can simulate L1B data which simulate errors due to the different
between NR and DAS model. However, this seems to be much more
complicated and KNMI and SWA will simulate L2B data.
We still have to discuss about Bufr table for L2B. relevant materials
are
AE_SAF_KNMI_L2BP_003_Setup_Guide.v1.1.20080520.pdf
The code to write L2b data is
out_pseudoPilot.f
Gert-Jan is planning to attend LWG meeting in next winter and discuss
with SWA about simulation of DWL. Ad Stoffelen may be able to visit
US in summer 2009.
Both SWA and Arlindo has aerosol simulator for DWL, We are trying to
hold a meeting with SWA and NASA.
MESO-Regional scale OSSE
1. Boundary condition for regional analysis
2. Regional NR add further uncertainty . Regional
NR could divert from global NR
3. Regional OSSE for the best use of limited
resources
4. Choice between WRF –var and GSI
5. Recycling regional forecast or not
GSI support Plan at DTC.
Ming Hu (NOAA/ESRL)
"DTC does have plan to release and support the use of
GSI for communityusers. Here is a little details on the
progress of the plan:
1) GSI has been installed on NCAR IBM and GSD linux
cluster.
2) GSI is running well GSD Linux cluster
3) . GSI users guide is ready for NCEP and GSD to
review.
4) DTC is planning to do GSI tutorial on January 2009.“
Namx
Low resolution regional run template by Yochiaki Sato
Vapor:/jcsda/save/wx23sy/Namx/Scripts.Base (cycle)
Vapor:/jcsda/save/wx23sy/Namx/Scripts.GlbGes(GSI only)
Vapor:/jcsda/save/wx23sy/Namx/llprep.sh
Vapor:/jcsda/save/wx23sy/Namx/prep_exp.sh
> ### copy tools ###
>
> 1. mkdir ${GPFS_VOLUME}/save/${USER}/Namx
> 2. cd ${GPFS_VOLUME}/save/${USER}/Namx
> 3. copy the attached files into ${GPFS_VOLUME}/save/${USER}/Namx
> Original scripts are in HAZE:/jcsda/save/wx23sy/Namx
> 4. gunzip -c Scripts.Base0829.tar.gz | tar xvf >
> ### modify the baseline script ###
>
> 7. edit llprep.sh
> # please change lord leveler parameters for your account:
> # account_no, class, group, and gpfs volume name
> 8. run the script (sh llprep.sh)
>
> ### set experiment environment ###
>
> 9. edit prep_exp.sh
> # please configure your experiment
> # EXP_NAME, VOL_NAME, S_DATE, E_DATE
> 0. run the script (sh prep_exp.sh)
>
Squall line / cold front case event from T799 NR
Chris Hill
Mississippi State University
T799 NR case event May 3 06 UTC
MSU
Out of season storm
over Mississippi.
Provide good sample
for MSU.
MSU OSSE update
• Investigating GSI and WRF-VAR for assimilation of
synthetic observations
• ATMS (and later CrIS) radiance simulation by NESDIS
• Conducting baseline MM5 simulation
– T799 data serve as initial conditions and boundary conditions
– 9-km and 3-km domains
– will attempt to extract synthetic observations (i.e. RAOB, SFC)
Evaluation of Tropics in T511
Oreste Reale
Reale_Evaluation_ECMWF_T511NR.ppt
• The NR shows a stronger than climatology TEJ, but a very
credible and realistic decrease of easterly speed with the
progress of the monsoon season. As a consequence, the
environment becomes conducive to more development
• First Nature Run to simulate one entire season
• Twelve tropical cyclones develop
• Realistic variability of tracks
• Most intense reaches 957 hPa
• Binary vortices, looping and singularities are observed (good
from OSSE perspective)
Concluding remarks on the African Monson
region and tropical Atlantic (T511NR)
• A synoptic assessment of the NR over the AM region
and the tropical Atlantic shows an overall very realistic
African Monsoon, AEJ and wave activity
• Several weak tropical and sub-tropical systems are
present, together with `major’ tropical cyclones
• In spite of a tendency of creating several early recurvers,
it can be stated that the NR, given the resolution
limitation, does have a very good representativeness of
tropical cyclone track variability in the Atlantic, as it
would occur in an active season
• This Nature Run represents a very promising tool to
perform OSSEs over the tropical Atlantic
Summary of Tropics of T799 NR
Oreste Reale
Reale_T799_October_Nature_Run.ppt
• AEJ is 40% weaker than climatology
• Atlantic TC activity contains some highly
suspicious tracks
• Eastern Pacific seems to present excessive
proliferation of weak TCs
• The intensity of the strongest ATL systems is not
superior to T511
• Different behavior in different basins
• Structure of some intense system not very
satisfactory in terms of scale and size of eye-like
feature
Preliminary conclusions
• The increased resolution does not necessarily
provide stronger confidence in a much better
Nature Run for the tropics
• Representation of TC activity does not
immediately appear superior to the T511
• Caution should perhaps be used in adopting
this NR for applications centered on future
instruments targeting hurricanes
• Further investigation is needed
Summary: Extratropical Cyclones 31R1 @
T511 (DJFM)
Thomas Jung
Jung_ECMWF_Nature_Run_TJ.ppt
• Synoptic activity (extratropics):
– Generally well represented
– Distribution of storm frequency quite realistic
– Problems in the Gulf Stream/Kurushio area?
– Too many systems in the eastern Atlantic (blocking)
Summary: Tropical Cyclones
31R1 @ T511 (DJFM)
• T511 model produces quite realistic frequency of
occurrence of TS/Hurricanes in the Atlantic.
• North African Monsoon too strong + northward shifted.
• AEJ is too weak (problem at higher resolution).
• Perhaps slightly too much AEW activity.
• Strong problems in the western tropical Pacific (too little
atmospheric upwelling). Problem larger at higher
resolution.
Some Other Issues: Model Climate
31R1 @ T511
• Amplitude of the MJO is underestimated (better in recent
cycles but still an issue).
• Convectively coupled Kelvin waves in the tropics are
underestimated (better from 32R3 onwards).
• Too little (much) precipitation over the tropical continents
(oceans) (improved in recent cycles).
• No QBO
• Euro-Atlantic blocking significantly underestimated (large
improvements in 33R1).
• Anti-cyclonic circulation bias in the North Pacific (fixed in
32R3)
Tropical Cyclones in Recent Model Cycles
• Generally there is an increase in the number/intensity of
tropical cyclones/hurricanes.
• Particularly lower resolution versions perform better than
older cycles (e.g., US landfall).
• Large increases in the western tropical Pacific (partly
due changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation).
Too large?
Sensitivity to Horizontal Resolution
Thomas Jung
Jung_ECMWF_Nature_Run_TJ.ppt
• Short-range and medium-range forecasts suggest that
T799, if anything, produces stronger hurricanes than
T511.
• Resolution studies, however, suggests, that some
aspects of the tropical climate (i.e., beyond the mediumrange) of 31R1 deteriorate when increasing horizontal
resolution (T159->T511). So it may be possible that T799
performs worse than T511.
• In the extratropics the largest changes occur when going
from T95 to T159. Rather little changes occur beyond
T159 (T159->T511). Hence, it seems reasonable to
assume that T511 and T799 perform similar.
Colder surface in Both poles (T799NR)
Michiko Masutani
Masutani_T799_T511.080410.ppt
Transient eddy kinetic energy become activs in SH toward summer
Both Poles are colder in T799 NR
10 day average sfc skin temperature
Arctic in T511 NR
Nikki Prive
• Stratospheric ‘cold pole’ - without input from obs, model
develops abnormally cold polar region in winter with strong
polar vortex. Common problem with global models.
• Surface temperatures are strangely high over the arctic
– Disconnect with temperatures above surface layer?
• Low level inversion too weak - impacted by many processes
• What is energy balance over ice? SHF/LHF/longwave/cloud
impacts?
• Sea ice and SST are applied from 2005/6 fields, not
interactive with model atmosphere
Plot by Yoshiaki Sato
Quick satellite view
datTB(ix,iy)=datTB(ix,iy)*(1.0datC(ix,iy,iz))+datT(ix,iy,iz)*datC(ix,iy,iz) # datC:
CC, datT: T
IR
T799 NR 2006041106
New interests and projects
OSSE capability for GNSS
Radio-Occultation (RO)
observations
Lidia Cucurull
JCSDA
Cucurull_OSSE_080828.ppt
Summary of the activities at the University of Utah
Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah ( [email protected])
• Evaluation of the ECMWF natural runs
1. Winter storms in T511
* 13 major storms are identified over the Northern American Area
* further Evaluation is in progress
2. Hurricanes in both T511 and T799
• Regional OSSEs (Obs: DWL)
A few issues: 1) model and data assimilation systems
2) boundary condition issues
3) hurricane intensity (resolution and validation issues)
Yves J. Rochon
Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate
Environment Canada
My interest is essentially in conducting sensitivity analyses in data
assimilation (currently global as oppose to regional). This work has only just
begun. Am currently conducting an OSSE experiment consisting of (1)
observation simulation using a nature run from our global model (set here for
120x240 horiz. resolution) and (2) conducting a few assimilations of this
simulated dataset with and without one of the observation sources. The
simulated obs consist of obs as used in weather forecasting (e.g.
radiosondes, AMSU-A among others) plus a couple of additional
stratospheric obs sources. For this first trial, the nature run is simply a model
run covering 2.5 months and the assimilation uses this same model (realizing
that this is far from the best choice but it's a first try) starting from different
initial conditions than the model run. Will see what that gives.
At some point in the future, I would like to take advantage of the nature runs
to be made accessible from your joint OSSE program.
OSSE at Northrop Grumman
Project Description:
The primary objective of the effort is to provide NASA with the capability to quantitatively assess the
benefits of observational data produced by proposed future observing systems. The research
effort planned would look into extending the Sensor Web Simulation that NGIT is working on with
NASA to incorporate a rigorous end-to-end simulation of future sensors and observing platforms,
thereby allowing an accurate assessment of the impact of the operational data they produce on
global weather forecasts. This supports the OSSE that NASA is pursing by allowing quantitativelybased decisions on the design and implementation of future observing systems. What NGST brings
to this collaborative effort is EVEREST, the Environmental Product Verification and Remote Sensing
Testbed. EVEREST is a "world-class" end-to-end modeling and simulation testbed for assessing the
performance of remote sensing systems. Initially developed to establish the pre-launch performance
of the NPOESS weather satellite system, EVEREST consists of comprehensive environmental
scenes, databases and validated state-of-the-science models for physics-based phenomenology,
radiative transfer, sensors, spacecraft, and data product retrieval. On the NPOESS program,
EVEREST has been a critical element in allowing NGST and the government to predict the quality
of the data products produced by the NPOESS sensor/spacecraft system, including the impact of
changing sensor, spacecraft, algorithm and other system design parameters. It was also used
during the PDRR phase of the GOES-R program to help establish system requirements for the
program. It is currently being used to ensure that the as-built NPP/NPOESS system will perform as
specified.
Resource requirement
T382
one node
GSI 4 hour/day (4 cycle)
one 5 day forecast: 2.5 hour ?
4 cycle per day, 5 day fcst twice a day: with one nodes 9 hr/day
T126
2 node
GSI 40min/day (4 cycle)
one 5day fcst 10min
4 cycle per day, 5 day fcst twice a day: with 2node 1hr/day
GOES-R
20km 10 times thining -> 60 km resolution :
15MB/hr 360MB/day=150GB
20km resolution 3.6GB/day=1.5 TB/year
4lm resolution
3.6x25=90GB/day=33TB/year