Transcript First degree impacts of hydrogen as a transport fuel: Andrew Baglino

First degree impacts of
hydrogen as a transport fuel:
A case study in New Zealand
Andrew Baglino
May 5, 2004
Context
Relevant History
• Responded to 1970s OPEC oil crises with Think Big encouraging
alternative fuels.
• Signed and ratified Kyoto Protocol. Planned policies include
carbon charges of NZ$25/tCO2 and forestry sinks
New Zealand Quick Facts
• Population of 4 million on two large islands in the South Pacific
• Largely deregulated energy sector; immense coal stocks; limited
amount of natural gas, 65% of oil imported
Motivation
Will hydrogen fuel cell vehicles help New Zealand
achieve goals of:
• Carbon emission reductions
• Sustainable resource use
• Minimizing dependence on foreign oil
What policies will promote these goals?
Methodology
System dynamics modeling of the NZ’s energy system
• Equilibrating, price-clearing markets for electricity and
hydrogen
• Myopic (No foresight)
• 16 time steps per year to 2050
Use Model to:
• Determine key variables
• Undertake Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis
• Test policy interventions and their probable outcomes
Key Assumptions
Fuel Cell Stack
• $2000/kw today
$50/kw 2020
Hydrogen Vehicles
• Unreliable now
• 6-figures now
Equivalent performance in 2020
Equivalent price in 2020
Exogenous Static Variables
• Population grows at median gov’t prediction
• Electricity demand linked to 2.5%/yr GDP growth
Model Block Diagram
GDP
Carbon
Emissions
Fossil Fuel
Extraction/Imports
Electricity
Generation
Hydrogen
Production
Vehicle
Market
PO
P
Stochastic Inputs
•
•
•
•
•
World Oil price
Imported LNG price
Biomass price
Hydrogen technology improvement
Cost of carbon sequestration
Scenario Definition
NOH2:
H2 FCVs are never economic.
BAU:
No H2-specific government regulation
Subsidize H2:
H2 excise taxes reduced by 50%
1¢/kM to .5¢/kM
Double CTax:
Carbon taxes doubled in 2012
12.5$/tCO2 to 25$/tCO2
Tax Petrol:
Petrol taxes increase by 50% in 2020
2¢/kM to 3¢/kM
Sample Output: BAU CO2 Distribution
Median
25th percentile
5th percentile
1
2
3
4
Million Tons of CO2
5
6
Carbon Emissions in 2050
50
Million Tons of CO2 Emitted
45
40
35
30
25
2002 Baseline
20
NO H2
BAU
Subsidize H2 Double CTax
Tax Petrol
Carbon Emissions: Median Reductions
Scenario
Emissions
Abatement
Tax Petrol
19%
Double CTax
19%
Subsidies
13%
BAU
5%
No scenarios predict emissions
returning to 2002 levels by 2050
Fossil Energy in 2050
PJs of Fossil Energy Consumed
800
750
700
650
600
2002 Baseline
550
NO H2
BAU
Subsidize H2 Double CTax
Tax Petrol
Fossil Energy: Median Reductions
Scenario
Fossil
Energy
Tax Petrol
5%
Double CTax
7%
Subsidies
2.5%
BAU
2%
Fossil fuel use will
continue to increase
Petrol Use in 2050
400
PJs of Petrol Use
350
300
250
200
2002 Baseline
150
100
NO H2
BAU
Subsidize H2 Double CTax
Tax Petrol
Petrol Use: Median Reductions
Scenario
Tax Petrol
Petrol
Consumption
37%
Double CTax
22%
Subsidies
30%
BAU
12%
BAU shows reasonable reductions;
Petrol Taxes and H2 Subsidies both can bring
consumption down to 2002 levels.
Overall Implications
Business as Usual:
• Modest emission (5%) and fossil fuel consumption
(2%) reductions
• Petrol demand reduced by 12%
Of the three policy goals, minimizing dependence on
foreign oil is the most achievable.
Policy is an effective driver.
Summary
• International interest in R&D in hydrogen
technologies
• New Zealand as a unique and motivated nation
• Even with strong policy instruments, a hydrogen
economy will not help New Zealand meet Kyoto
• Stepping stone to a renewable future?