Transcript Document 7223077

ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT STATUS
OF NATIONAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM
Prof. Ben Kiregyera
NSDS Workshop,
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
10 August 2005
What is strategic planning about?
2. WHERE DO WE
WANT TO BE?
1. WHERE ARE WE
NOW?
Current situation
Mission/vision
Statistical
capacity
4. HOW DO WE KNOW
WE HAVE ARRIVED &
HOW DO WE STAY
THERE?
Monitoring/evaluation/
Sustainability
3. HOW DO WE
GET THERE?
Strategies/Actions
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ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT STATUS OF
NATIONAL STATISTICAL SYSTEMS
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I.
WHAT IS A NATIONAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM (NSS)?
Arrangements
for production
,
management and
use of statistics
NSS
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II.
WHY ASSESS THE NSS?
a strong strategy is based on assessment of current
situation (context map)
in most cases not developing NSDS from scratch
 most countries, will exist NSS
 existing initiatives for improving national statistics
(e.g. GDDS)
 been various assessments of NSSs using DQAF, etc.
Purpose of NSDS will be to
build on & extend (leverage
from) existing approaches &
initiatives to improve existing
NSS
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III.
BENCHMARK ASSESSMENT OF NSS
1st step in development of NSDS
Assessment should :

be in-depth and not cursory; realistic, objective,
detached and critical

be benchmarked against international standards,
frameworks & best practices

lead to understanding of:


adequacy of outputs & services
organization, management &
infrastructure of NSS
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Characteristics of an effective NSS
o UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics
 NSS should comply with these for public to have
trust in official statistics
 10 Principles
• professional independence
• relevance
• credibility
• respondent relations
o Legal framework
• fundamental pre-requisite for effective NSS
• comprehensive checklist (UN, World Bank, IMF,
others)
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o Shared direction
•
strategic goals and objectives
o Stakeholder-driven and user-focused
•
national data needs
•
sub-regional data needs (SADC, ECOWAS, COMESA)
•
International data needs e.g. for MDG monitoring
o Versatile (able to quickly respond to changing demand for
data)
o
Effectively led and coordinated
•
well-resourced & well-structured NSO with technical
expertise, organizational systems and capacity to lead
and coordinate NSS
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Assessment of NSS should lead to understanding of:
 user requirements for statistical data
 users’ current and perceived future needs
 adequacy of existing statistics
 gaps in existing and planned data
 priorities for data
 capacity to use data
 availability of statistics
 sources
 availability and access - publication and dissemination
policies
 linkages and coordination arrangements – user-producer,
producer-producer, producer-researcher/analyst, etc.
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Coordination and collaboration
• Why coordinate, collaborate and network?
 mutual reinforcement
 achieve synergy
 avoid working at cross-purpose and
destructive rivalries
 avoid production of conflicting data
•
Generally
Weak
Types of coordination
 inter-institutional or horizontal coordination
(break the “silo mentality”)
 technical coordination (standardization of
concepts, definitions, classifications, etc)
 donor coordination
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ON-GOING DATA USER-PRODUCER DIALOGUE
USERS
• required data
• when required
• how required
- frequency
- timing
- form
PRODUCERS
• available data
• how data are
collected
• data quality
• constraints
• future plans
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 legal and institutional framework in which data are produced
 organizational aspects including
 management of NSS
 human resource policies
 strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats
 quality of statistics in terms of:
Integrity
DQAF
 independence of statistical operations (provided in Act)
 professional and ethical standards (confidentiality, scientific
objectivity, professional competencies)
 transparency about statistical processes
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Methodological soundness: sub-regional, regional and
international standards
- broad standards followed e.g. Fundamental Principles
of Official Statistics, GDDS, International Standard
Industrial Classification
- subject-specific standards and methodologies followed
e.g. System of National Accounts, FAO guidelines,
ILO guidelines, UNESCO guidelines, etc.
Accuracy and reliability
-
incompleteness data/many data gaps
validation of administrative data
response rates
spatial coherence in reporting
sampling error rates
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Serviceability: user consultation, periodicity of statistical
outputs, timeliness of statistical outputs
 User consultations
- regular and continuing or insufficient, ad hoc, far
between?
- are user needs sufficiently analyzed, collated and
prioritized?
- are there serious data gaps?
 periodicity of outputs
- monthly, quarterly, annually
- Income and Expenditure Survey (3-5 years)
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Accessibility: effectiveness of dissemination, updated metadata
 dissemination and access
 statistics have extrinsic value which lies in their power
to inform processes e.g. planning, monitoring
 therefore, statistics have no value unless they:
• reach those who need them
• are easily understood
• are actually used
 well-defined and forward-looking dissemination policy
based on GDDS principles:
 advance publication of release calendar
 simultaneous release of data – principle of
equal access to data
 providing metadata - information about the data
 specific statistical products to well-targeted users
 use different dissemination media (reports,
electronic e.g. CDs, web site) – e-dissemination
 Help-Desk (CBS)
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Timeliness of statistical outputs in Namibia
Statistical
Output
Frequency
Bank of Namibia
Financial
Quarterly
reports
Annual
CBS
Consumer
Prices
Stat. Abstract
Min. of Labour
Informal Sector
Stat. Bulletin
Min. of Health
Health Inform.
Report
Monthly
Data last
collected
Reporting
Jan-March
Jan-Dec
June
March
May
June
Annual
1998
7 years
Annual
2001
2004
1997
Annual
2003
1997
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
Main sources of data
 Administrative records (line Ministries)
•
Are there Management Information Systems (MISs)
•
Are Statistical Bulletins produced and in time?
•
Are there databases
•
Constraints to data development
human capacity (understaffing, and/or limited
technical skills, competences)
material resources
financial resources
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 Surveys (current data)
 household-based surveys
• Household Income & Expenditure Survey
(periodicity)
• Annual Agricultural Survey
• Labour Force Survey (periodicity)
• Demographic and Health Survey (between
censuses)
• are these surveys coordinated/integrated?
 establishment-based surveys
• frequency of establishment surveys
• business registers
• are these surveys coordinated/integrated?
 other surveys
• Consumer Price Survey
 major constraint: data disaggregation, sampling errors
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
Censuses
 main sources of benchmark data
 held after 10 years
 Population and Housing Census
 Agricultural Census
 Economic Census
 Major constraints: cost, enormity of exercise

Assessments
Qualitative assessments (poverty related issues)
(focus group discussions)
Supplement quantitative information
Challenges: a) coordinate systems to produce
complementary data/information
b) combine quantitative and qualitative
data (triangulation)
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
how data are produced
 methods and procedures
 use of regional & international standards
 constraints and problems

how data are managed i.e. processed, analyzed and
archived
 IT policies & strategies
 databases and data warehouses
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Business transformation using IT
Five Levels of IT-induced business
transformation
Degree of Business Transformation
High
Business Scope Redefinition
Business Network Redesign
Business Process Redesign
Internal Integration
Revolutionary
Levels
Evolutionary
Levels
Localized Exploitation
n
Low
Low
High
Degree of potential benefits
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ICT Infrastructure


do most institutions have adequate computers
(numbers, right power, how old are they, etc)?
are there Local Area Networks (LANs) in place in
many institutions?
 are ICT resources optimally utilized?
 has ICT improved communication &
information sharing?
 status of Internet access & web sites
 are there IT policies and standards in NSS?
 is GIS capability developed?
 are there databases?
 levels of IT application
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Data cycle
Planning
Analysis/Interpretation
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Data versus Information
Assessment of user needs
Data
Producers
End users:
 Policy makers
 Decision makers
Packaging/Communication
Information
Detailed/
Policyrelated
analysis
Intermediate users:
 Researchers
 Subject-matter
Specialists
Data Processing &
Primary Analysis
Data
Suppliers
data (raw materials
Add value to from which inform.
obtained)
data
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Data, Information, Knowledge
Informed decisions
Knowledge
Information
Data
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Main issues in data analysis and reporting

data producers do basic analysis
(generally poorly, water-is-wet types of analysis)

detailed data analysis is usually not done
 no customized/targeted, value-added
statistical products and services
(e.g. special reports on gender, nutrition,
etc)

 shortage of analytical skills at NSOs
reporting usually poorly done
 lack of analytical skills
 lack of soft skills (communication, etc)
 inadequate partnerships with subject-matter
specialists and analysts
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 how statistics are disseminated and used
 dissemination policies

metadata

data use
 current capacity of the NSS
 Demand side
 capacity to articulate requirements
 capacity to effectively use data for policy and
decision-making
 Supply side
 infrastructure (physical, statistical & ICT)
 human and financial resources
 dissemination policies and strategies
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IV. METHODOLOGY
Do document review to appreciate:
 government policy environment (PRS, etc)
 sub-regional & international development
agenda (MDGs, etc)
Review international standards and frameworks
Other country experiences
Interview key data users
 Government ministries, politicians,
 Public sector (e.g. Central Bank, parastatals)
 Private sector (Chamber of Commerce
and/or Industry),
 Civil society (NGOs, news media)
 Research & Training institutions (Research
Centres, Universities)
 Donors and international organizations
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Information from key data users
 What they do
 How they use statistics in their operations
 Availability of statistics and how they may have
been constrained by lack of data
 Their ability to effectively use data
 Their assessment of existing data – criteria
 Their relationship with main data producers & their
role in contributing to the development of the NSS
 Their current & future statistical needs & priorities
 How they think their needs can best be met within
the context of the NSDS
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how do you identify key users and collect data from them?

starting point should be NSO mailing list

divide users into main user groups

select some manageable users from each group

visit users, organize small group discussions, etc.
having identified users and their needs, proceed to assess
capacity to meet their needs using PARIS21 Statistical
Capacity Building Indicators (SCBIs)
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interview key data producers mainly in NSO, Central Bank
line ministries and the private sector to establish:
 inventory of their capacities to meet user needs
 what data they produce
 how they produce data (legal and institutional
framework, human resources, office infrastructure,
equipment, communications and transport, methods
and procedures, systems)
 main constraints and problems they face
 how they co-ordinate with data users and other data
producers
 how they process, analyse, store data and disseminate
statistical information
 existence of databases.
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Interviews at NSO




management
professional staff
administrative staff
junior staff
Focus/small group discussions (NSO staff and
key stakeholders) to:
 articulate an ideal profile for the NSO,
 carry out SWOT analysis
 determine resource requirements in terms of
personnel, office infrastructure, equipment,
communications and transport, and budgets
 develop a prioritized and costed work and capacity
building programme
 identify technical assistance that may be required
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IV. INSTRUMENTS FOR COLLECTING INFORMATION
Examples
END
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Thank You
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