Transcript Document 7208608

What is the threat and can it be fixed?
SCIENTIFIC BASIS,
FUTURE PREDICTIONS, AND
PUBLIC HEALTH IMPACT OF GLOBAL
WARMING
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change
 Established by the World Meteorological
Organization and the United Nations Environment
Program in 1988
 “The role of the IPCC is to assess on a
comprehensive, objective, open and transparent
basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic
information relevant to understanding the
scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate
change, its potential impacts and options for
adaptation and mitigation.”
 Bases assessments on peer reviewed and published
scientific/technical literature
IPCC Structure
 Working Group I – “assesses the scientific aspects
of the climate system and climate change”
 Working Group II – “assesses the vulnerability of
socio-economic and natural systems to climate
change, negative and positive consequences of
climate change, and options for adapting to it”
 Working Group III – “assesses options for limiting
greenhouse gas emissions and otherwise mitigating
climate change”
 Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
– “responsible for the IPCC National Greenhouse
Gas Inventories Programme”
IPCC Assessment Reports
 First (1990); Second (1995); Third (2001)
 Fourth Assessment Report (2007)
 WGI: “The Physical Science Basis”


Summary for Policymakers available
600 authors from 40 countries; reviewed by over 620 experts
and representatives from 113 countries
 WGII: “Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability”
 Summary for Policymakers available
 WGIII: “Mitigation of Climate Change”
 The Synthesis Report
“The Physical Science Basis”
 “Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2,
methane, and nitrous oxide have increased
markedly as a result of human activities since 1750
and now far exceeds pre-industrial values
determined from ice cores”
 CO2  fossil fuel and land use change
 Methane and nitrous oxide agriculture
 Changes expressed in terms of radiative forcing
 Measure of influence of human and natural factors that
alter the balance of energy in the atmosphere
Changes in
Greenhouse Gas
From Ice Core
and Modern Data
Observations of Temperature Change
 Eleven of the past twelve years rank among the
twelve warmest since 1850
 The average atmospheric water content has
increased since at least the 1980s
 The average ocean temperature has increased to
depths of at least 3,000m
 Ocean absorbs at least 80% of heat
 Leads to seawater expansion
 Mountain glaciers and snow cover have
declined in both hemispheres
Rate of Sea Level Rise (mm/yr)
Source of sea level rise
1961 - 2003
1993 - 2003
Thermal Expansion
0.42 ± 0. 12
1.6 ± 0.5
Glaciers and ice caps
0.50 ± 0.18
0.77 ± 0.22
Greenland ice sheet
0.05 ± 0.12
0.21 ± 0.07
Antarctic ice sheet
0.14 ± 0.41
0.21 ± 0.35
Sum of contributions
1.1 ± 0.5
2.8 ± 0.7
Observed total sea level
rise
1.8 ± 0.5a
3.1 ± 0.7a
Difference
0.7 ± 0.7
0.3 ± 1.0
Long Term Changes in Climate
Phenomenon and
direction of trend
Warmer and fewer
cold days and nights
over most land area
Likelihood that
trend occurred in
late 20th century
(post 1960)
Likelihood of a
Likelihood of future
human contribution
trends based on
to observed trend
projections for 21st
century using SRES
Very likely
(>90%)
Likely
(>66%)
Virtually certain
(>99%)
Warmer and more
frequent hot days and
nights over most land
areas
Very likely
Likely (nights)
Virtually certain
Frequency of warm
spells and heat waves
increases over most
land areas
Likely
More likely than not
(>50%)
Very Likely
Long Term Changes in Climate (2)
Phenomenon and
direction of trend
Frequency of heavy
precipitation events
increases over most
areas
Likelihood that
trend occurred in
late 20th century
(post 1960)
Likelihood of a
human
contribution to
observed trend
Likelihood of future
trends based on
projections for 21st
century using SRES
Likely
More likely than not
Very likely
Area affected by
droughts increases
Likely in many
More likely than not
regions since 1970s
Intense tropical
cyclone activity
increases
Likely in some
regions since 1970s More likely than not
Increased incidence of
extreme high sea level
Likely
More likely than not
Likely
Likely
Likely
Causes of Climate Change
 “Most of the observed increase in globally averaged
temperature since the mid-20th century is very
likely due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations”
 Volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols have offset
some warming
 Extremely unlikely that change can be explained
without external factors
 Very likely not due to natural causes alone
Future Predictions
 Projected warming of .2ºC per decade over the next
two decades under range of emissions scenarios
 Projected warming of .1ºC if greenhouse gases and
aerosols are kept constant at year 2000 levels
 Warming and sea level rise will continue for
centuries even if greenhouse gas concentrations are
stabilized
Emissions Scenarios
 A1 – very rapid economic growth; convergence
 Divided into 3 groups based on primary energy source
 A1F1 = fossil intensive
 A1T = non-fossil
 A1B = balance across all sources
 A2 – heterogeneous world; self reliance
 B1 – rapid economic growth; convergence; service
and information economy
 B2 – focus on local solutions to problems
-Relative change in percent for the period 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999
-White area = less than 66% of the models agree
-Stippled area = more than 90% of the models agree
Public Health Concerns
 Addressed by WGII in summary for policymakers
 Disappearing land masses
 New Zealand promised to take in global warming refugees
 More natural disasters
 Insurance claims rising
 Invasive species on the rise
 Pine beetles not killed by winter
 Higher mosquito line (vector-borne diseases)
 Illness from emissions and heat
 Reduction in crop yields
 Water shortages
Criticisms of IPCC Findings
 Emphasis on warming may take emphasis off
immediate public health concerns
 Political appointees, not scientists
 “The Great Global Warming Swindle”
 95% of CO2 emissions are not man made
 Global warming is a product of higher CO2
 Warming is a natural process
 Summer of 1930 was one of the hottest on
record
 Earth will adapt to changes
 Stress positives of global warming (crop yields)
 Economic costs for solutions are too high
Duty to Future Generations
 We may reach a tipping point soon and the risks
do not outweigh the benefits
 Greatest harm will probably be to nations with the
smallest impact on warming
 There are other reasons to switch to renewable
energy sources and emphasize conservation
 Decrease dependence on oil-rich nations
 Ensure resources exist for future generations
 Improve health of citizens by reducing emissions
Are we doing everything we could be doing?
Legislative Response
 The Clean Air Act of 1990
 EPA sets levels of emissions allowable on a nationwide basis
 States in charge of implementing many of the specific
provisions
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State Implementation Plans (SIPs) – Each state must have a SIP that
explains how it will implement CAA
EPA must approve each state’s SIP
States must follow federal minimum levels, but can implement
stricter controls on emissions
 National Permit Program
 Permits issued by states (or by EPA if state is noncompliant)
 Include information about what pollutants are being released, how
much is being released, and steps taken to monitor and reduce
pollution
Legislative Response, cont.
 Efficacy of the Clean Air Act
 Example: CFC Ban



In 1978 in response to the discovery of a hole in the ozone layer, the
government banned CFC’s as propellants in aerosol products
Clean Air Act of 1990 set a schedule for other ozone-depleting
chemicals to be phased out
Significant decrease in the rate of ozone depletion as a result
Administrative Approaches
 The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
 Mission: “The mission of the Environmental Protection
Agency is to protect human health and the
environment.”
Administrative Approaches, cont.
 The Environmental Protection Agency, cont.
 Responsibilities:
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


Develop and Enforce Regulations – Implement Congressional
mandates
Financial Assistance – Grants to state environmental
programs
Environmental Research
Environmental Education and Information
Administrative Approaches, cont.
 The Environmental Protection Agency, cont.
 Organization: Executive Agency headed by a
Presidential appointee
 Judicial Review: Chevron Standard


Did Congress speak clearly about the matter? If so, Congress’
intent controls
If Congress did not speak clearly, courts defer heavily to
agency’s interpretation so long as it is reasonable
 Issue: Can Executive Agencies operate truly
independently of the political process to protect the
environment and public health?

Example: The 2005 Climate Change Memo
Administrative Approaches, cont.
 Emissions Trading (cap and trade)
 Currently, all emissions trading is done in a private market
(i.e., Chicago Climate Exchange) and the U.S. does not have a
carbon emissions trading system in place

“Free Market Environmentalism” – Caps are set politically, but
companies make individual choices about how to reduce pollution
 Is there room for government regulation of emissions
trading?

Acid Rain Program of the Clean Air Act
 Expected to reduce SO2 emissions 50% by 2010
 Government oversight and enforcement are costly, however
Administrative Approaches, cont.
 Emissions Trading, cont.
 Schemes of Enforcement:
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Regulators measure facilities and fine or sanction those that
fail to comply
 Expensive
 Places a heavy burden on agency
 Risk of corruption of inspectors
Licensed third party verifies that facilities are licensed and
have not exceeded emissions
 Transparent process that can be audited
 Far less expensive
 Places burden on the private sector
Administrative Approaches, cont.
 Emissions Trading, cont.
 Problems With Government Regulation:
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

Too many credits might be given by government, rendering
market ineffective
Tight controls are necessary to establish such a market
Emissions credits are like money and may take away funding
from development of sustainable technologies
But What Do They Say?
The Supreme Court Speaks
 Massachusetts v. EPA (05-1120, April 2, 2007)
 Closely divided decision (5-4)
 Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases from cars are
pollutants under the Clean Air Act and thus the EPA has the
authority to regulate them
 Court found that emissions from cars make a “significant
contribution” to greenhouse gas emissions and therefore to
global warming
 Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers responded favorably,
advocating for national emissions standards rather than stateby-state standards
 While the case is historic, it may be years before action is
actually taken by the EPA to regulate carbon dioxide
emissions
The Supreme Court Speaks, cont.
 Environmental Defense v. Duke Energy Corp. (05-848, April
2, 2007)
 Unanimous decision (9-0)
 Utilities must comply with “New Source Review” provision of
Clean Air Act when overhauling facilities
 Held that it was improper for power plants to conduct
renovations without installing required controls to reduce
sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions
 Overhauled plants can operate for more hours per year, even
if hourly emissions do not increase, so “annual test” is
required because annual emissions can increase, which
significantly increases harm to public health
 Decision signals a rejection of the decades-old practice of
“grandfathering” old utility facilities
Other Possible Legal Tools
 The Police Power
 The Commerce Power
 Tax and Spend Power
 States as Laboratories
 Treaty Power
Conclusions?
 Global warming is an urgent problem in need of
urgent solutions. Do we have the tools on hand
necessary to address it in a timely manner?
 Efficacy of legal solutions – Is it all bark and no bite?
 What can be done within our current framework to
deal with global warming?
What is the rest of the world doing?
Kyoto Protocol
 Negotiated – December 1997
 Entered into Force – February 2005
 169 Parties – Countries and other entities
 United States is signatory but has not ratified and will
not under current administration
Kyoto Protocol, cont.
 The objective is the stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system.
 Anthroprogenic - effects, processes, objects, or
materials that are derived from human activities,
as opposed to those occurring in natural
environments without human influences.
Kyoto Protocol, cont.
 Goal is to reduce emissions of six greenhouse
emissions – carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide,
sulfur hexafluoride, HFCs and PFCs
 Overall reduction of 5.2% from 1990 levels
 Reduction goals vary by country – EU 8%, US 7%,
Japan 6%, Russia 0%
Criticisms of Kyoto
 Doesn’t go far enough to curb emissions
 Global socialism initiative to transfer wealth to
developing nations.
 Industrial economy will move to third world countries
with no restrictions on emissions
 Will not actually curb global emissions
Emissions Trading
 Also known as cap and trade
 An administrative approach used to control pollution
by providing economic incentives for achieving
reductions in the emissions of pollutants
Emissions Trading, cont.
 How does it work?
 Caps
 Credits/allowances
 Trade
Emissions Trading Systems
 Kyoto Standards
 European Union Emissions Trading Scheme
 Chicago Climate Exchange
 Acid Rain Program
 Japan and Canada - 2008
European Union Emissions Trading Scheme
 Major component of EU climate policy
 Began January 2005
 Phase 1
 2005-2007
 All EU member states
 Covers 45% carbon emissions and
European Union Emissions Trading Scheme,
cont.
 Phase 2
 2008-2012
 Will expand to cover all greenhouse emissions, not just
carbon
 Several non-EU countries expected to join
How the EU Scheme Works
 National Allocation Plan
 Each country has caps on emissions
 Facilities within countries have maximum “allowances”
for a given period
 To comply, must reduce below allowances or trade with
other facilities or countries that have excess allowances
Success of the EU Scheme?
 To early to tell
 Critics believe caps are too lenient
 Progressively tightening caps are foreseen for each new
period, forcing overall reductions in emissions
 Inclusion of sinks needed?
 Planting trees to reduce carbon
Future of Emissions Trading
 G8+5 Climate Change Dialogue
 Washington Declaration – Feb 2007
 Group hopes to have global system of emission caps
and carbon emissions trading system involving
industrialized and developing nations
 Preliminary plans to implement in 2009
 Designed to replace Kyoto
Al Gore said “choosing between economy and the
environment is a false choice”.
Is it really?
From BothAnd Project website
Let’s Start at the Beginning…
 What is cost/benefit analysis?
 Method used to make decisions
 Decide what the ultimate goal is and then
figure out the social welfare implications
of enacting such a policy


If standard of living increases from a given
policy, then it should be enacted
Our ultimate goal is to curb the effects of
global warming
Costs of Status Quo
 Many weather-related catastrophes are thought to be by products of
global warming.
 In the 1990s, damage from weather related disasters was around $340
billion (300% more than in 1980s)
 In 2000, the fires across America cost the country $1.7 billion
 Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma had record losses of $57.6 billion
http://www.ecobridge.org/content/g_dgr.htm
 “North America . . . can expect more hurricanes, floods, droughts, heat
waves and wildfires . . . . In the short term, crop yields may increase by 5 to
20% from a longer growing season, but will plummet if temperatures rise
by 7.2 Fahrenheit.”
Panel: Global Warming a Threat to Earth By: Arthur Max. April 6, 2007
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory?id=3014590
 Air pollution will cost Ontario’s health-care system and economy more
than $1 billion and result in approximately 1,900 deaths this year, reports
the Ontario Medical Association.
Science and Environment Health Network article June 27, 2000 http://www.sehn.org/tccoma.html.
Costs of Status Quo, cont.
 Two pictures of Beijing
 On the right is a
“sunny/clear” day
 On the left is just after 2
days of rain
Costs of Status Quo, cont.
 Unfortunately, the greatest unknown is the price of
inaction.
http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/3225/story.htm. Article from 2005
 We can predict what might happen if we do not
consider the effects of global warming, but we do not
know what will happen.
 We do not know for sure if these weather related
disasters will occur
 We do not know for sure what the temperature increases
will be
Benefits of Status Quo
 No administrative costs of changing the system
 Companies (i.e. auto industries and power plants) will
not have to decide how to reduce emissions, nor will
they have to pay to do so
What Some Are Already Doing to Help
 Without government
intervention, some are
taking action on their own
 BP says that it has cut 20% of
its emissions since 1990; this
cost them $20 million but it
also has saved them $650
million
 DuPont admitted to cutting its
emissions by 67% since 1990;
this has saved the company $2
billion.
http://www.giiexchange.org/guide/energy/16B.shtml
We Need to Reduce Emissions
 Policy makers must balance between the costs and
benefits of reducing emissions
 Benefits: lower estimated value of the public health
ramifications from effects of gas emissions
 Costs: increased production cost and reduced economic
activity
“Are All Market-Based Environmental Regulations Equal?” By: Ian W. Parry. Fall 2002 issue of Issues in
Science and Technology. http://www.issues.org/19.1/p_parry.htm
 To reduce emissions, law makers must decide
among different methods (permits, regulation)
How Can We Do This?
 Follow Kyoto
 Cost of complying is
anywhere between .1% of
GDP and 4% of GDP.
 Low number comes from
purchasing rights from
other countries
 High number comes from
reducing US emissions via
government regulation
“The Cost of Reducing Carbon Emissions: An
Examination of Administration Forecasts.” By: Peter
VanDoren. March 11, 1999
How Can We Do This? cont.
 Tradable permits vs. government
regulation
 In 1995 the US started the Tradable
Pollution Permit (TPP) market.


Purpose: reduce emissions of SO2 from power
plants by 50%.
US saved between $225 million and $375
million by using TPP instead of government
regulation.
Introduction to Environmental Economics. By: Nick Hanley, Jason Shogren, Ben White. Published 2001.
Permits
May
Be
the
Best
Solution
 Identifiable cost savings with permits
 Value of international emissions trading depends
who the trading participants are.
 The players in this market determine supply and
demand and this is the basis to the economic outcome
of tradable permit programs
“The Value of Emissions Trading”. By: Mort Webster, Sergey Paltsev and John Reilly. Report No. 132. February
2006
 Auctioned permits v. “grandfathered” permits
 Auctioned permits: benefits of “grandfathered” permits
and benefits of tax reductions
 US might be better off to the tune of $20 billion to $45
billion per year by using auctioned permits
“Are All Market-Based Environmental Regulations Equal?” By: Ian W. Parry. Fall 2002 issue of Issues in
Science and Technology. http://www.issues.org/19.1/p_parry.htm
Opportunity Costs of Emissions Trading
 Auto industry spends money on emission trading
indirectly as well
 Spent $30 million in 2006 on lobbying alone.
 Cost of emission trading is not limited to just the act of
trading. Also have to factor in other costs too (e.g.
lobbying, advertising, etc.)
“Auto Industry Warming to Emissions Limits”. By: Joe Crea and Osita Iroegbu. Legal Times March 21, 2007.
http://www.law.com/jsp/article.jsp?id=1174381422263
Can We Really Choose?
 Al Gore said “choosing between economy and the
environment is a false choice”.
 Being that we can not accurately predict how global
warming will impact the Earth, its hard to respond to
Mr. Gore’s statement.
 But if we have to choose, and we decide to take action,
permits may be the best solution.