Transcript IDC Technical Market Overview www.idc.com/hpc

IDC Technical Market
Overview
www.idc.com/hpc
IDC is Focused on IT
38 years of experience in IT market research
 Founded in 1964
700+ analysts worldwide
Quality primary research and methodologies
 More than 370,000 surveys/year
Only global/local IT research company
 50 offices in 42 countries
IDC Research Areas
Enterprise
Systems
Global
Research
Technical
HPC
Workstations
Services
Software
Internet
Channels
Verticals
Personal
Systems
Consumer and Small
Business
Networking and
Telecommunications
Components and
Peripherals
Overview: The New Realities
Technical markets join the mainstream
 Scalable systems and leverage product strategies
 Hardware alone is becoming less important
Capability market transition
 Shake up in vendors and technologies
Bio-Sciences markets accelerate
 Major opportunities developing for IT suppliers
Clusters – Not Just for Breakfast Anymore
 Real interest in clusters appearing at all levels
 GRIDS are becoming mainstream for many sites
2002 vs. 2001 Highlights
Overall -- Revenue down 7.2% to $4.7B
Capability -- Revenue up 24.3%, to $1,003M
Enterprise -- Revenue down 25.8%, to $785M
Divisional -- Revenue down 27.0%, to $1.062B
Departmental -- Revenue down 5.4%
 Still largest market segment at $1.850B
High-end HPC -- Revenue down 4.1% to $1.8B
 High-end HPC = Capability + Enterprise
 Rest of market down – 9.0% to $2.9B
IDC’s Market Segmentation
Technical Capability
 Systems configured and purchased to solve the largest most
demanding problems
Technical Enterprise
 Systems purchased to support technical applications in
throughput environments selling for $1 million or more
Technical Divisional
 Systems purchased for throughput environments selling from
$250,000 to $999,000
Technical Departmental
 Systems purchased for throughput environments selling for
less than $250,000
WW Technical Computing Market
$9,000
$8,000
$7,000
Capability
Enterprise
Divisional
Departmental
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Overall -- Revenue down 7.2% to $4.7B (from $5.06B)
2002 Industry/Application Segments:
Percentage By Revenues
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
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IDC Application Segment Definitions
1. Biological Sciences -- applications include genomics, proteomics, pharmaco-genomics,
pharmaceutical research, bioinformatics, drug discovery, bio-analytic portals and ASP
type service providers, agricultural research. Computational techniques range from data
base searching and management to molecular modeling, to computational chemistry.
These applications are used in commercial, academic and institutional research.
System that are specifically targeted for these applications should be included, systems
purchased for general scientific and R&D environments should be counted in the
Science and R&D segment.
2. Chemical engineering applications include molecular modeling, computational
chemistry, and chemical analysis. All chemistry applications that are not directly related
to bio-sciences research and development. These applications are used in commercial,
academic and institutional research.
3. Classified and Defense applications include surveillance and signal processing,
encryption, C3I (command, control, communications and intelligence), defense
research, and other national security applications.
4. Digital Content Creation (DCC) and Distribution applications include 2D and 3D
animation, film and video editing and production, and multimedia authoring for both CD
and web pages that utilize sophisticated graphics content. This category also includes
servers used for image rendering, content management, and distribution of finished
products. The increasing use of digital content in areas such as film, TV, commercial
animation, advertising, product styling, and industrial design has expanded the market
to include both low end systems and extremely high performance computers.
5. Economic and financial modeling includes both trader and non-trader tasks, such as
econometric modeling, portfolio management, stock market and economic forecasting,
and financial analysis.
IDC Application Segment Definitions
6. Electronic design and engineering analysis covers all electrical/electronic tasks,
including schematic capture, logic synthesis, circuit simulation, and PCB routing.
7. Geoscience and geo-engineering applications include earth resources-related work
such as seismic analysis, oil services, atmospheric modeling, geo signal analysis, and
various applications in meteorology industries. These applications are used both in
institutional research and commercial enterprises. Geoscience and geo-engineering is
also referred to as GIS, and includes components of mapping and image processing.
8. Imaging applications handle input from some type of camera, typically a video camera,
and require specialized image preprocessors to prepare the image data for
manipulation by a computer system. The medical and earth science industries have
traditionally been the most common users of image technology, for such applications as
body scanning, medical imaging, terrain modeling, and remote-sensed (LANDSAT or
satellite-derived) data analysis.
9. Measurement and Control applications include measurement analysis, and the front
end of automated test equipment (ATE). Like the simulation portion of the market,
measurement and control typically requires real-time response.
10.Mechanical Design and Drafting includes design applications such as mechanical CAD;
2D, 2-1/2D, and 3D design and drafting; 3D wireframe; and civil engineering design.
Design and drafting applications require graphics capability, but are less computeintensive than design engineering and analysis applications. CAD tasks are typically
done by designers and drafters. Users are found primarily in discrete manufacturing
industries such as automotive, aerospace, heavy machinery, and consumer goods.
IDC Application Segment Definitions
11.Mechanical Design Engineering and Analysis are those tasks generally accomplished
by engineers - not drafters. This segment of technical computing covers such analytical
tasks as finite element modeling and analysis, mechanical CAE, civil engineering,
structural analysis, computation fluid dynamics, and solid modeling. Like CAD
applications, these CAE tasks are used to design automobiles, commercial aircraft,
running shoes, ski equipment, sail boards, beer bottles, and other everyday items.
12.Other commercial applications are those that have not otherwise been classified; such
as data analysis, office automation, WP, accounting, payroll, inventory, and customer
service. This category is used to account for additional sales of workstations, and for
special sales of servers from companies with a strong primary focus on technical
markets. It is not intended to include commercial server sales by companies selling into
a broad range of horizontal markets.
13.Scientific research and R&D applications are typically compute-intensive, and often
require high-performance graphics. Programs can be exceedingly large and complex.
These users are less bound by strict economic constraints than those performing
applications in products environments. Therefore scientists and researchers are among
the most CPU-hungry users in the technical computing market. Users are found in
universities, national laboratories (such as Argonne and Lawrence Livermore), pure
research institutions (such as MCC and MCNC), and for-profit corporations. They
conduct basic and applied research in areas such as physics (including Nuclear),
computational fluid dynamics, scientific visualization, thermodynamics, wind tunnel
testing, laboratory data analysis, and scientific signal analysis.
IDC Application Segment Definitions
14.Simulation applications include operator-in-the-loop simulators in such areas as:
factory operations analysis and operator training, flight training, nautical training,
nuclear plant analysis and operator training, robotic simulation, utility or power
distribution analysis, and related training (computer-aided instruction (CAI)).
15.Software engineering users generally require less compute power than other technical
users. These applications are typically performed by low-end and midrange systems,
particularly low-cost technical workstations, and in some cases even PCs. Software
engineering includes those tasks such as CASE, expert/knowledge systems, algorithmic
research. Perhaps the most critical requirements for software developers is windowing
capability. The need for high-end graphics capability is relatively low, since two
dimensions are generally sufficient for the conceptualization and visualization of a logic
system. However, the compilation and test of programs, can benefit from access to
powerful networked compute resources to speed the overall development process.
16.Technical Management and support applications involve tracking, documenting and
controlling the product life cycle chain, and the scientific research process. Such
management and support is typically done by a file or data server on a network. Tasks
include: product data management, maintenance records management and analysis,
revision control, configuration management, network management, and project
management.
17.Technical Other applications not otherwise specified by the above definitions.
2002 Revenue Share By Technologies
2002 By Processors
Sparc
20%
PA-RISC
18%
Alpha
14%
Power
23%
Intel
MIPS Custom 13%
6%
6%
2002 By Memory Architecture
SMP-Bus
72%
SM-xbar
15%
MP
8%
NUMA
Other
2%
3%
SMP-Bus
SM-xbar
MP
NUMA
Other
Technical Market Forecasts
 Our current forecast model demonstrates a
reset pattern returning to year over year
growth beginning in 2003
 Revenue Growth – 6.1% CAGR to 2007
– Growth rates relative to the peak year of
2000 are about 2.0% CAGR
– Over $6.3 billion by 2007
– Bio & Life Sciences over $2.6 Billion by 2007
 Unit Growth -- 11.8% CAGR
– 108,450 shipments in 2007
Key Forecast Assumptions
 Economic recovery
– HPC economies return to a growth mode
– No major disruptions from terrorist events
 Biosciences major market driver
– Bio-sciences revenue growth – 16.6%
– Traditional HPC revenue growth – 1.4%
 HPC resiliency
– Research and Development necessary for product cycles
– Government spending is long terms expected to increase
– Longer sales cycles
 Market Dampers
– Price/Performance reset
– Clusters provide a new sources of price competition
– Grid model increase overall efficiencies
A Few Next Generation Applications
Automotive
 Full fidelity crash
 Integration of design, engineering, manufacturing and test
 Full durability -- 150,000 miles, no failures
Pharmaceuticals
 Properties modeling
 Cell membrane modeling
Health Sciences -- Genome and:
 Physiological modeling
 Vascular simulation
 Virtual surgical planning
Chemicals
 Developing new biological compounds
 Process modeling
Petroleum
 Seismic and reservoir visualization
 Improved substrate modeling
 Forward analysis of oil-bearing structures
New Application Development Areas
New Application Areas in 2003:
48% Will Invest In Current Applications
14.0%
12.0%
11.5%
10.0%
8.0%
5.8%
6.0%
5.8%
3.8%
4.0%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
2.0%
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Worldwide Technical Market Forecast:
Revenues ($,000)
10,000,000
Capability
Enterprise
Divisional
Departmental
9,000,000
8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
The overall market will grow at a CAGR of 6.1%
to reach $6.3 Billion by 2007
Worldwide Technical Market Forecast:
System Shipments
120,000
Capability
Enterprise
Divisional
Departmental
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Technical Cluster and Grid
Market Overview
www.idc.com/hpc
Definitions: Clusters and Grids
A set of independent computers combined into a
unified system through systems software, and
networking technologies
 Independent components
 Standard interconnects
Clusters vs. Grids: Different ends of same spectrum
 Clusters:
– Dedicate components -- All components are exclusively
“owned” and managed as part of the cluster
 Grid:
– Virtual system -- Configured from components that are
generally managed and used both as part of the grid and
as independent systems
IDC Cluster Market Model Definitions
BRIGHT CLUSTERS
 Complete configurations offered by system’s suppliers
 The vendor is responsible for assembly, delivery and
support of the cluster product
DIM CLUSTERS
 End-user assembly of individual systems sold as
technical servers or workstations
DARK CLUSTERS
 End-user assembly of components purchased from a
number of sources
INVISIBLE CLUSTERS
 Re-purposed clusters build from systems that were
purchased for other reasons
 These systems do not add measurable market revenue
Cluster Market Model Topology: View #1
Technical
Cluster Servers
Bright
Clusters
Traditional
Vendors
Dim
Clusters
End
Users
New
VARs
Invisible
Clusters
Dark
Clusters
End
Users
End
Users
Grid
Intersect
View #2: An Alternative View Of Grids
< - - - - - - - Grids - - - - - - - - >
HPC
Server Market
Traditional:
Servers
-- SMPs
-- Vectors
Clusters:
-- Bright
-- Dim
-- Dark
-- Invisible
Other Devices:
-- PCs
-- Workstations
-- Commercial Servers
-- Handhelds
-- Instruments
Other Servers:
-- Proprietary
-- FPGA
-- Other Custom
2002 HPC Cluster Market Revenues: $1.6B
$700
$ Millions
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
Bright
Dim
Dark
Market Drivers for Clusters
Absolute node level performance
 Moore’s Law at work
Price/Performance as throughput engines
 Single problem per node computing
 Maximizes management flexibility
Best solution for highly parallel applications
 Embarrassingly parallel problems
 Important enough to justify special system
Technology exploration phase
 Highly visible technology requires investigation
 Broader market is experimenting with clusters
 Potential for dramatic changes in market structure
Linux
 Breaks O/S binding to vendor
 Provides for greater sharing of software
HPC Cluster Market Forecast by Source
Segment: Revenues ($ Millions)
$3,000,000
$2,500,000
$2,000,000
Dark
Dim
Bright
$1,500,000
$1,000,000
$500,000
$0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
HPC Cluster Market Forecast by Source
Segment: System Shipments
35,000
30,000
25,000
Dark
Dim
Bright
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Operating System Trends
And Observations
www.idc.com/hpc
2002 HPC Server Market Revenues: $4.7B
$4,000
$ Millions
$3,500
$3,000
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
UNIX
Linux
NT
Other
WW Technical Computing Market by OS
$9,000
$8,000
UNIX
Linux
$7,000
NT
Other
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Overall -- Revenue down 7.2% to $4.7B (from $5.06B)
$ Millions
2002 HPC Cluster Market Revenues: $1.7B
$1,000.00
$900.00
$800.00
$700.00
$600.00
$500.00
$400.00
$300.00
$200.00
$100.00
$0.00
Linux
UNIX
NT
Other
WW Technical Cluster Market by OS
$2,000
$1,800
Linux
Unix
$1,600
NT
Other
$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
$0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
In Conclusion
www.idc.com/hpc
Major Market Trends
• Commodity processors & systems now dominate
 Custom processors & systems aren’t material in
market size, but provide unique capabilities
 Hardware alone is becoming less important
• Capability market transition
 Shake up in vendors and technologies
•
•
•
•
Clusters and Linux now part of the mainstream
GRIDs and IA-64 are emerging technologies
Bio-Sciences and cluster markets accelerate
Long term growth is projected in all segments
 Short term economic situation is less clear
Questions?
Please email:
[email protected]
Or check out:
www.idc.com/hpc
Goals of the hpc@idc User Forum
Assist HPC users in solving their ongoing computing
and business problems
 A forum for exchanging information, identifying
areas of common interest, and developing unified
positions on requirements
Provide members with a continual supply of information
on:
 Uses of high end computers, high end best
practices, market dynamics, computer systems and
tools, vendor activities and strategies
Provide members with a channel to present their
achievements and requirements to outside interested
parties
The Technical Agenda:
Initial HPC User Issue Areas
Better Metrics: “Sizing” Computers
 Sustained vs. Peak Performance
Develop a position paper on HPC architecture
requirements
Learn What Other Users Are Doing
Collaboration Among Users
Leverage Technology
Leverage HPC Vendors
 And Academia
 And ISVs
Map Applications to Architectures
The Economics Of Supercomputing
Previous HPC User Forum Meetings
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
October 1999: First planning meeting
November 1999: User Forum public launch
April 17, 2000: Second planning meeting
July 24, 2000: Third planning meeting
September 18 & 19, 2000: First full User Forum
meeting, Richmond, Virginia
April 11 & 12, 2001 Dearborn, Michigan
April 23 & 24, 2002 in Santa Fe, New Mexico
September 10 & 11, 2002 in Portland, Maine
April 8 & 9, 2003 in Sundance, Utah
May, 2003 in Bristol, UK and Annecy, France
September 16 & 17, 2003 in Princeton, NJ
October, 2003 in London and Paris
HPC User Forum Update
110 attended the last meeting in Princeton
 96 was the previous high point (Sundance)
Membership is now over 145
Check out the web site at:
 www.idc.com/hpc
Web Site
IDC Balanced HPC Performance
Rankings
www.idc.com/hpc
Why IDC Started This Activity
HPC users and vendors listed it as their MOST pressing
issue
 Impacting the health of the industry
– And the quality of the products available
 Vendors felt that it was driving a number of major
purchases in the US
– “So why not just design cheap computers with very high
processor peak numbers?”
 Users expressed that it impacted their ability to acquire
the best computer
– Without major questioning by upper management
Users and Vendors asked IDC, because we are
independent and have a history in HPC
Philosophical Notes – Our Approach
Using more metrics can provide a more balanced
picture
 A good single metric doesn’t currently exist
– One with data on many configurations
There already exists many useful metrics
 … the problem can be solved
An adaptive and evolutionary approach
 Add better metrics as they become available
 Adding price, I/O and ease-of-use
Base Data Set
• Vendor Name
• Computer Model
• Number of CPUs
• Total/ Max. Memory
• CPU Clock
• CPU Peak Gflop/s
• System Peak Gflop/s
• # of Single System Nodes
• US List Price ($M)
• FCS (Year)
• IDC Market Segment
• One Computer or Cluster
• CPU Linpack Rmax
• Total System Linpack
• System SPECfp _Rate _base2000
• System SPECint _Rate _base2000
• Single System Node Bandwidth
• System Wide Memory Bandwidth
• STREAM TRIAD (Node)
• STREAM TRIAD (System)
• Number of CPUs
• Total System Memory &
Interconnect Bandwidth
• Processor Capability Rating
• Memory Capability Rating
• Scaling Capability Rating
• Overall IDC Rating
• Price/Performance
Example Balanced Rating List
Vendor
Model
Processor
Memory
Scaling
Number Capability Capability Capability
of CPUs Rating
Rating
Rating
#
NEC
IBM
HP
HP
HP
SGI
IBM
IBM
NEC
HP
IBM
IBM
IBM
IBM
Fujitsu
NEC
IBM
Intel
IBM
NEC
Earth Simulator
ASCI White,SP Power3
LANL AlphaServerSC45 P-2
PSC AlphaServer SC45
CEA DAM AlphaSvr SC45
ASCI Blue Mountain
SP Power3 375 MHz 16 way
eServer pSeries p690 Turbo
SX-6/192M24
LANL AlphaServerSC45 P-1
NERSC SP Power3 375 NH2
eServer pSeries p690 Turbo
eServer pSeries p690 Turbo
eServer pSeries p690 Turbo
VPP5000/100
SX-5/128M8
eServer pSeries p690 Turbo
ASCI Red
eServer pSeries p690
SX-6/128M16
5,120
8192
4,096
3,016
2,560
6,144
3328
928
192
1,536
2,528
800
768
768
100
128
704
9,632
512
128
0 to 100
11,867
9,354
7,046
5,270
4,502
4,509
3,800
2,887
511
2,779
2,895
2,488
2,389
2,389
317
397
2,190
793
1,350
341
0 to 100
99,328
3,149
3,473
2,557
2,176
1,230
1,279
1,657
3,725
1,302
972
1,429
1,372
1,372
3,413
3,356
1,257
1,027
1,524
2,483
0 to 100
10,240
2,099
1,243
915
777
1,368
759
508
346
466
648
438
420
420
404
282
385
1,926
253
230
Overall IDC
Rating
0 to 100
40,478
4,867
3,921
2,914
2,485
2,369
1,946
1,684
1,527
1,516
1,505
1,452
1,393
1,393
1,378
1,345
1,277
1,249
1,042
1,018
Example List – Price/Performance
Vendor
HP
NEC
HP
HP
HP
HP
HP
HP
SGI
SGI
HP
SGI
HP
HP
SGI
SGI
SGI
HP
HP
SGI
HP
HP
SGI
SGI
Model
rx2600 @900MHz
Earth Simulator
rx2600 @1GHz
i2000 (Itanium)@733
J6000 (PA-8600)
RX4610 (Itanium)@733
i2000 (Itanium)@800
RX4610 (Itanium)@733
Origin 300 500
Origin 300 600
J6700 (PA-8700)
Origin 300 500
RX4610 (Itanium)@800
L3000 (PA-8600)
Origin 300 600
Origin 300 600
Origin 300 600
RX4610 (Itanium)@800
rp5470 (PA-8700)@650MHz
Origin 300 600
L3000 (PA-8600)
rp5470 (PA-8700)@650MHz
Origin 300 500
Origin 300 500
Number of
CPUs
Overall IDC
Rating
Price/
Performance
#
0 to 100
List/ IDC Rate
2
5,120
2
1
2
4
2
2
128
8
2
8
4
4
32
128
64
2
4
16
2
2
64
384
3
40,478
4
1
2
3
1
2
98
6
2
5
4
3
23
94
47
2
4
12
2
2
40
233
4.6
4.9
5.8
9.1
12.0
12.3
13.0
13.8
14.6
15.1
15.2
16.8
17.4
17.7
18.0
18.1
18.2
18.4
18.8
19.3
19.4
19.8
20.1
20.2
In Summary:
Why Worry About HPC Metrics?
HPC Users and vendors identified it as one of their
top issues
 The range in prices as a ratio to peak
performance is over eight times
– Indicating a need for a better metric for
comparing computers
 Price as a ratio to peak performance is
becoming less meaningful each year
– Yet it is broadly used (and abused)
– LINPACK closely tracks peak
Balanced Ratings Conclusion
Despite the strategic and economic importance of
supercomputers, or HPC systems, there have been no
generally available databases or tools for analyzing
these complex technologies along multiple dimensions
User organizations need a source of common system
specification data, and top-level tools for sorting through
various aspects of the technologies to better understand
and explain how different technologies match their
requirements
The IDC Balanced Rating provides one such top-level
analysis and ranking