Transcript Update on the Nuclear Arms Race: What you

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Update on the Nuclear
Arms Race: What you
can do to end it and
make the US and the
world more secure
Hiroshima – Nagasaki
Day Memorial Service
August 9, 2009
Jimmy Spearow, Ph.D.
Representing
Sacramento Physicians for
Social Responsibility
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"Little Boy" 235 Uranium Bomb
Yield 13,000 tons (13 Kiloton) TNT
Dropped on Hiroshima: 140,000 Civilian Deaths
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“Fat Man” 239Plutonium Bomb
Yield 20,000 tons (20 Kilotons) TNT
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Burn and Radiation Injuries
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Medical Effects of Nuclear Weapons
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Mortality from Fireball and Thermal Wave
Acute Radiation Exposure
Radioactive Fallout
Immune suppression, Epidemics of Infectious Disease
Blast Wave
Electromagnetic Pulse Damage
Societal Collapse, Economic and Environmental Costs
Nuclear Winter
WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION & TERROR
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Medical Effects of Nuclear Weapons
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Mortality from Fireball and Thermal Wave
Acute Radiation Exposure
Radioactive Fallout
Immune suppression, Epidemics of Infectious Disease
Blast Wave
Electromagnetic Pulse Damage
Societal Collapse, Economic and Environmental Costs
Nuclear Winter
WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION & TERROR
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Lethal Nuclear Weapon Effects
• Effects of
• Blast
• Thermal & Direct
• Radiation Effects
12-20 Kiloton
1-2 Mile
5-6 Mile
Radius
Radius
• Radioactive Fallout ~ 5-15 Miles
• (Ground burst)
• Number of deaths
from attacking
a major city
~ 500 Kiloton
>100,000
~100 Miles
Hundreds of
Thousands
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A Nuclear War between US and
Russia is likely to result in
10-100 Million immediate Deaths
on each side
Prevention of Nuclear War needs
to have a high Priority
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Factors Driving the Nuclear and Conventional
Arms Race
Nationalism
Develop
Weapons
Military
Industrial
Complex
Insecurity
Perceived
Military Threats
Nation "A"
Perceived
Military Threats
Nuclear
proliferation
increases
threats
Conflicts over
resources or
ideologies
Insecurity
Military
Industrial
Complex
Develop
Weapons
Nationalism
Nation "B"
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US/Russian Strategic
Nuclear Weapons
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US/Russian Strategic
Nuclear Weapons
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New Way of Thinking: Arms Control and Conflict
Resolution can promote Mutual Security and Peace
Arms Treaties and
Disarmament
Goodwill
Desire to
help others
Improved
Domestic &
Foreign Aid
& Services
Increased Security
Conflict
Resolution,
Cooperation &
Mutual Security
Improved
Domestic &
Foreign Aid
& Services
Goodwill
Desire to
help others
Increased Security
Arms Treaties and
Disarmament
Nation "A"
Nation "B"
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Threats of Nuclear War
*Major Nuclear Powers
US, Russia, China, Great Britain, France
Militarization of Space, False Warnings & Fear of
Preemptive First Strikes  Increased Risks Nuclear War
*Nuclear Proliferation by other Nations
India, Pakistan, North Korea, Israel, Iran? & ?
Escalation of Conventional War-> Nuclear War
*Nuclear Terrorism by Non-State Actors
Stolen or Smuggled Nuclear / Radiological Weapon
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Arms Control Treaties
• Limited Test Ban Treaty
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Non-Proliferation Treaty
Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)
Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty
Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty
Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT I)
Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT II)
Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I)
• Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty II (START II)
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START I
START II
6,000
3,500
BushPutin
START III
Agreement
2,500
6000
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0
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US
USSR
1991
US
Russia
1993
US
Russia
Abandoned
US
Russia
2002
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George W. Bush Administration
Counterforce Nuclear Weapons Policy
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2001: Bush-Putin circumvented START III
2001: Opposed Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
2001: Withdrew from ABM Treaty
2002: Nuclear Posture Review--> First Strike Policy
2002: Pushed to develop “Bunker Buster” Mini-Nukes
2002: Declared Iraqi WMD a threat to US security
2003: Invasion & Occupation of Iraq.
2004: Deployed Missile “Defense” System
2007: Pushed to upgrade US nuclear bomb manufacturing
plants (Complex 2030 & Reliable Replacement Warheads)
• 2007: Pushed to deploy Missile Interceptors in Europe
• 2008: Abandoned negotiations on successor to START
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-President George W. Bush Military Policies:
-1) Disavowing Arms Control Treaties
-2) Threatening Nuclear & Conventional First Strikes
-3) US Ballistic Missile Defense & Militarization of Space
-4) Using US military to garner and control world
resources (Oil) (Economic Imperialism)
-These policies were very destabilizing, likely to:
-Create Animosity toward the US;
-Renew & destabilize the Arms Race;
-Increase Long-term Chances of Nuclear War;
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Opportunities for Nuclear Disarmament
*January 2007 - George Schultz, Henry Kissinger,
William Perry and Sam Nunn – Called to promote
a world Free of Nuclear Weapons.
Now is the time to push for nuclear disarmament
by treaty negotiations.
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Change in Nuclear Weapons Policy
• President Barack Obama declared in Prague
April 2009 that the United States will
"take concrete steps toward a world without
nuclear weapons."
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President Obama’s Nuclear Arms Control Agenda
• President Obama negotiating a successor to Strategic
Arms Reduction Treaty (START) with Russian
President Medvemed –
• Reduce number of US and Russian strategic Nuclear
Weapons by ~ one third.
– Contention over Ballistic Missile Defenses in
Europe
– Russian concerns missile interceptors could be
used to block Russian retaliation after a US preemptive first strike
– US Senate opposed to any concessions on BMD
• Urge Congress to Support and Ratify this Nuclear
Arms Control Treaty.
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President Obama Supports
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)
•Bans the detonation of any nuclear
bombs.
•Agreed to by 41 of 44 nuclear states,
ratified by 31
•1999: Without hearings, ratification
failed in US Senate 48- 51
•2001: Bush withdraws from CTBT
•2009: Obama Supports CTBT
•Urge Congress to Ratify CTBT
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Non-Proliferation Treaty
• Seeks to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons
and weapons technology
• In exchange for non-nuclear nations agreeing to
not develop Nuclear weapons, Nuclear nations
agreed to: 1) Not target non-nuclear nations; 2)
Decrease the number of nuclear weapons; and 3)
Eventually eliminate nuclear weapons.
• President Obama Supports Strengthening NonProliferation Treaty and
• Taking nuclear weapons off Hair Trigger Launch
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Unsolved Problems with Nuclear Power Waste
Yucca Flats Nuclear Waste Depository on hold
Bush Administration’s “Global Nuclear Energy Partnership”
-Reprocesses Nuclear Power waste to purify plutonium and
Uranium - Domestically and Globally
-Increases stockpiles of weapons-usable plutonium
Nuclear Power Plant  Reprocess  Plutonium  Warheads
Major Nuclear Proliferation Risk
-Reprocessing increases volume of radioactive waste
 Increased exposure to radioactivity
PSR Urges President Obama and Congress to abandon nuclear
waste reprocessing.
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Which Nuclear Weapons Policy will we choose?
Deterrence
Counterforce
Mutually Assured Destruction
Or Non-Proliferation and
Multilateral Nuclear
Disarmament
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The Future is in our Hands !
PSR Urges you to support
President Obama’s
Disarmament and NonProliferation Treaty Efforts
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Other Sources of Information
Physicians for Social Responsibility
http://www.psr.org
Sacramento PSR
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Nuclear Age Peace Foundation
http://www.wagingpeace.org/
Teach Peace Foundation
http://www.teachpeace.com
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Summary
• PSR Urges you to contact your congressional representatives
and request that they support and ratify President Obama’s
nuclear arms control efforts including:
• A successor to Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)
• Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
• Strengthening Non-Proliferation Treaty
• Taking nuclear weapons off Hair Trigger Launch
• However, PSR Urges President Obama and Congress to
abandon nuclear waste reprocessing.
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THE END
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Extra Slides for
question and answer
period
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Attack on Nuclear Power Plant anticipated
to be the Worst Nuclear Disaster
Anticipated
Fallout from
Bombing a
Nuclear
Power plant
Fetter & Tsipis
Scientific American
April 1981
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Unprecedented Public
Health Disaster
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Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty
• Negotiated with the former Soviet Union during the Cold
War.
• Forbids testing and deployment of Sea, Space or Mobile
ballistic missile defense systems.
• ABM Treaty is important: While ABM system may shoot
down rogue missiles, it can also be very destabilizing
especially if coupled with first strike weapons.
• 2001: Bush administration announces US withdrawal
from ABM treaty.
• ~2004 Russia Develops Topol-M “Crazy Ivan” ICBM
• 2007: US plans to deploy ABM in Eastern Europe
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Factors Driving the Nuclear &
Conventional Arms Race
Nationalism
Develop
Weapons
Military
Industrial
Complex
Insecurity
Perceived
Military Threats
Nation "A"
Perceived
Military Threats
Conflicts over
Resources or
Ideologies
Insecurity
Military
Industrial
Complex
Develop
Weapons
Nationalism
Nation "B"
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President Obama’s Nuclear Arms Control Agenda
• President Obama negotiating a successor to Strategic Arms
Reduction Treaty (START) with Russian President
Medvemed– Reduce US and Russian strategic Nuclear Weapons by 1/3
– Contention over US Ballistic Missile Defenses in Europe
– Russian concerns- missile interceptors could be used to
block Russian retaliation after a US pre-emptive first strike
– US Senate opposed to any concessions on BMD
• President Obama Supports Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
– Ratification narrowly failed in 1999
• President Obama Supports Strengthening Non-Proliferation
Treaty
• Supports taking nuclear weapons off Hair Trigger Launch
• Urge Congress to Support and Ratify President Obama’s
Nuclear Arms Control Treaties.