Transcript Document 7167585

Role of Genetically Modified Crops
in Future Global Supply, Demand
and Prices of Food: Overview
Mark W. Rosegrant and Anthony Cavalieri
Environment and Production Technology Division
Delivering Agricultural Biotechnology to African Farmers:
Linking Economic Research to Decision Making
Organized by: IFPRI, UNCST, Scifode
Entebbe, Uganda
May 19-21, 2009
Outline
 A World of Growing Food Scarcity
 Biotechnology for Poor Farmers
 Constraints to the Use of
Agricultural Biotechnology
 Conclusions and Policy Options
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A World of Growing
Food Scarcity
Hunger and Malnutrition:
Developing World
Number of hungry people in millions
1000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
1969–
1971
1979–
1981
1990–
1992
1995–
1997
2001–
2003
20032005
2007
Data source: FAO 2006; 2008
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Global Price of Maize:
Baseline and Without Climate Change, 2000-2050
No climate change
Baseline
200
180
World Price (US$/t)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations for HadCM3/SRES B2 scenario
(with IMAGE temperature and CO2 fertilization effects, April, 2008)
2045
2050
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Contributing Factors to Future Scarcity

Rapid income growth

Underinvestment in agricultural
productivity and technology

Water and land scarcity, biofuels

Climate change

High energy prices—high input and
transport costs

Population growth and urbanization
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Per Capita Meat Consumption,
2000-2050
2000
LAC
2000-2050
58
19
NAE
83
ESAP
28
SSA
11
CWANA
24
13
20
0
4
11
20
40
60
80
100
kg/person per year
Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections, September 2007
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Sources of Cereal Production Growth,
projected, 2000-2050
area expansion
yield improvement
Annual Growth Rates 2000-2050
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
LAC
ESAP
SSA
CWANA
NAE
-0.5
Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections, September 2007
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Biotechnology for
Poor Farmers?
What do Farmers in Developing
Countries Need?
 Improved yields
 Nutritional enhancement
 Abiotic and biotic stress tolerance
leading to stable yields and production
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Opportunities with Non-biotech
Technology
 Existing technologies
•
•
•
•
Efficient irrigation
Fertilizer use
Modern, high yielding
varieties
Hybrids
http://www.ars.usda.gov/images/
docs/3498_3682/surface_drip03j
un.jpg
 Preferred to biotech when:
•
•
•
Solve important problems
Attract investment
Cost efficient
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http://aspenlandscapes.com/picts/dri
p-irrigation-stake-placing.jpg
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Opportunities with Biotechnology
 Can we define the place of
biotechnology in contributing to
productivity and food security?
•
•
Tools to support traditional breeding
(molecular markers, tissue culture
diagnostics etc)
Transgenics where variation doesn’t exist
in the crop (e.g. drought, heat and salinity
tolerance, insect and disease resistance)
and the cost of development is justified by
the resulting cultivars
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Can Biotechnology Address
Developing Country Needs?
 Experience in developed world
 Experience in developing world
 Research investment
 Scientific capacity in developing
countries
 Progress in plant science
 IFPRI modeling results
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Experience in developed world
 Broad experience with transgenics in US
and Canada
 Four crops:
•
•
•
•
Maize
Soybeans
Cotton
Canola
 Two traits:
•
•
Bt – Bacillus thuringiensis
RR – Roundup Ready
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Experience with GM in developing world
Global Area of Biotech Crops, 1996 to 2008:
Industrial and Developing Countries (mil ha)
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Source: Clive James, 2009
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Pipeline for traits:
Either currently available or in development
 Soybean and Maize
•
•
•
•
Yield
Nutrient-use efficiency
Abiotic stress tolerance
Disease and insect resistance
 Oil Palm, Cassava, and Sugarcane
•
•
Abiotic stress tolerance
Disease and insect resistance
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Experience with GM in developing world
Bt Insect Resistance

Brinjal (eggplant)

Cowpea

Rice

Cotton

Maize
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Other traits

Vitamin A sorghum

Golden Rice

Fungal resistant
banana
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Experience with GM in developing world
Source: Min. of Agriculture GOI
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Experience with GM in developing world
Summary of public evaluation of
Bt cotton in India
(7 studies)
Yield Increase
31-90%
Reduction in
insecticide sprays
Profit Increase/ha
39-75%
76-250%
Source: James 2007
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R&D investment in biotechnology
Public R&D Annual Spending
(US$ million)
Private R&D Annual
Spending (US$ million)
Wheat
Maize
Wheat
Maize
<$200
<$100
<$200
~$1500
Source:
Maize: Company and public organization websites.
Wheat: Hans Braun CIMMYT, Pers. Comm.

Large sums of money are available for crop
improvement when there is a return on the
investment

Significant activity on biotechnology in the
public sector that will result in products in the
coming years
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R&D investment in biotechnology
 Willingness of private companies to
make IP and technology available
http://upload.wikim
edia.org/wikipedia/
en/thumb/8/88/Gold
enRiceWhiteRice.jpg/280p
x-GoldenRiceWhiteRice.jpg
• Syngenta: Golden Rice
• Monsanto: Drought
resistant maize for Africa
http://www.african
ews.com/docume
nts/18/2c/182c7b1
a72a23fe19371d6
038b8be22f.articl
e.jpg
• DuPont: Nutritional
enhancement of sorghum
for Africa
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http://www.africancrops.ne
t/rockefeller/crops/sorghu
m/pics/rattundaPage
sorghum2.jpg
21
R&D investment in biotechnology
 Growing public efforts
• Bt cowpea (USAID)
• Bt maize (Syngenta Foundation)
• Bt cotton (Government of India)
• Golden Rice
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Current progress in plant science
 Scientific progress: reasons for optimism
•
Underlying common molecular biology and
biochemistry for all crops
•
High through-put technologies for molecular
breeding, gene discovery, and manipulation
•
Uses of genomic sequence information
– Molecular markers
– Gene discovery
•
High level of spending for medical
applications
•
Complete genome sequences for several
crops
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Current progress in plant science
Source: Edgerton 2009 Plant Physiol. 148:7-13
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Current progress in plant science
Source: Edgerton 2009 Plant Physiol. 149: 7-13
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Projected Effect of GM on food prices
GM lowers
price of crops
90
Zero-GMO
Price ($/mt)
300
250
200
150
100
Zero-GMO
50
80
0
70
Price ($/mt)
Baseline
350
Cassava
Baseline
Rice
400
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2040
2050
60
50
Maize
40
300
30
20
Baseline
Zero-GMO
250
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Price ($/mt)
10
200
150
100
50
0
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
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2000
2010
2020
2030
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Constraints to the Use of
Agricultural Biotechnology
What are the Constraints?
 Limited profit opportunities in
developing countries
 Too long term, expensive, and
controversial for public sector
 Public-sector research tends to be
project based and subject to fashions
in funding
 Complex product development
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What are the Constraints?
 Limited infrastructure and established
seed systems in developing countries
• Timely production of adequate foundation
seed
• Hybrid seed production
• Appropriate promotion of new varieties
• Seed costs
• Market distortions caused by government
seed companies
 Delivery issues for non-transgenic
modern high-yielding varieties
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What are the Constraints?
 Regulatory
• Lack of systems and capacity in
many developing countries
• High cost
• Long term nature of environmental
risks
 Product stewardship
• Challenges for public sector
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What are the Constraints?
 Organized, highly effective opponents
of technology motivated by concerns
about:
• Risks
• Technology
• Multinationals
• Trade
• Etc.
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Conclusions and
Policy Options
Conclusions
 Biotechnology can contribute to food
production and security in developing
countries.
 Traits in the development pipeline will
have greater value for poor farmers.
 Rapid advancement of the science of
biotechnology applied to crop plants is
refining the necessary tools.
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Conclusions
 Acceptance and demand by farmers has
driven large scale adoption of transgenic
crops
• This includes adoption in large-scale
crops in major markets.
• It also includes illegal adoption preceding
regulatory approval.
• Development of crops with traits of value
to consumers or food companies would
further advance acceptance and adoption.
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Conclusions
 Public sector development of
transgenic crops
•
Long term nature of product development
•
Dependence on short term, project based
funding
•
Limited seed systems for delivery of
products
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Science Policies to Enhance the Benefits
of Biotechnology for the Poor
 Provide advanced molecular marker tools
and IT support for breeding programs in
crops of importance to poor farmers
•
Large-scale crop improvement efforts
•
Initiated by the private sector with policy and
financial support, e.g. joint Indian DBT and
USAID funding
 Explore policies that allow access to
patented basic tools of genetic engineering
(transformation, gene expression etc) to
developing country scientists
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Science Policies to Enhance the Benefits
of Biotechnology for the Poor

Enable developing-country access to patented
genes (Bt, drought resistance, nitrogen use
efficiency) through innovative IPR, licensing,
and market segmentation
•

Combined with efforts to address stewardship,
liability, and control issues for the two points above
Make genome sequencing capacity in
developed countries available to developing
world scientists to sequence most
important developing world crops (cassava,
teff)
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Science Policies to Enhance the Benefits
of Biotechnology for the Poor

Develop stronger collaborations for
collecting and preserving land races and
wild relatives of crops species
•
•

Svalbard Global Seed Vault is a start
Policies would need to address the concerns
countries about protection of the genetic materials
Training of developing country scientists in
US or EU labs
•
•
Upon return to their home countries scientists
are on their own with little funding, follow-up or
incentives for doing research
Programs from donors in the developed world
should address these issues
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Potential Initiatives for Developing Countries
 Focus on supporting the development of
the private sector in those crops where
there are potential markets
•
Infrastructure
•
Reasonable regulatory regimes
•
Transparency
•
IP protection
•
Capital for start ups
•
Reduced hurdles to forming businesses
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