Transcript PAKISTAN COUNTRY PRESENTATION Liaqat Ali Presented by

COUNTRY PRESENTATION
PAKISTAN
Presented by
Liaqat Ali
Chief Statistical Officer,
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics,
Government of Pakistan
Contents
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Country Profile (Key Indicators)
The General Statistics (Reorganization) Act, 2011
Defining National Accounts
Different Approaches to compile GDP
Framework of Pakistan’s current NA
Sectors of the Economy
Sector-wise Methodology and sources of data
Capital Formation and Expenditure on GDP
Summary Growth rates of GDP, Investment and CPI
Rebasing of NA why and When?
Major Improvements
Adopting the Price Concept and Modern Classifications
Main data sources
Rebasing Exercise in Manufacturing Sector (Examples)
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Country Profile (Key Indicators end June,
2012)
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Name :Population:
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Urban
Rural
Population Growth Rate (%):Labor Force:Employed Labor Force:Un-Employed Labor Force:Un-Employment Rate:Crude Birth Rate (per 1000 person):Crude Death Rate (per 1000 person):Infant Mortality Rate (per 1000 person):Life Expectancy (Years)
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Females:Males:-
Islamic Republic of Pakistan
180.71 Million
67.55 Million
113.17 Million
2.03
59.3 Million
55.8 Million
3.5 Million
6.0 Percent
27.2
7.2
69.0
66.1
64.3
(cont.)
Country Profile ( cont.)
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Literacy Rate: Male: Female:Expenditure on Education (%age of GNP):-
58.0 (June,11)
69.0
46.0
1.8
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Registered Doctors (000 Nos.):-
149.2
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Registered Nurses (000 Nos.):-
76.2
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Registered Dentists (000 Nos.):-
10.9
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Expenditure on Health (%age of GNP):-
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Per Capita Income:-
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Exchange Rate:-
Rs.88.31/US$
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Financial Year:-
1st July to 30th June
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0.3
US$ 1372
The General Statistics (Reorganization) Act, 2011
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Change of Name from Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS) to Pakistan
Bureau of Statistics (PBS)
Under the Act, three data collecting departments i.e FBS, Population
Census Organization, and Agriculture Census Organization have been
merged into PBS
The General Statistics (Reorganization) Act, 2011, governs the
collection, compilation, and dissemination of statistics.
The Act authorizes the Statistical Authorities and the Governing Council
to ensure smooth statistical operations in the country.
PBS is an autonomous body headed by Chief Statistician who is also
Federal Statistics Authority under the Statistics Act
The Act ensures confidentiality of information on individual, firm or
institution and provides legal coverage to statistical activities in the
country and also ensures that the collected information is used only for
statistical purposes.
The Act ensures statistical reporting and individuals or establishments
that fail to supply data or supply false data can be fined/imprisoned under
the Act
What is National Accounts
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
The National Accounts is a systematic
framework for the presentation of statistics that
provide a wide range of information about the
economy
There are a number of aggregate measures in
the national accounts, most notably gross
domestic product or GDP and investment
(GFCF).
6
NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

Gives a systematic and quantitative view of the
results of economic process as a whole in a
certain period in economy. They constitute a
record of all economic transactions which take
place in a certain period of time between
economic sectors with in a Country and also
with ROW. The transactions are grouped.
DIFFERENT APPROACHES TO CALCULATE
GDP:
Production Approach:
 The production or output approach = Gross
Output - Intermediate consumption
Expenditure approach:
(Final consumption expenditure of Households and
Government + Gross fixed capital formation +
changes in inventories (stocks) + exports –
imports Or GDP = CH + CG + I + (E-X)
Income Approach: Compensation of employees +
Net indirect Taxes + net Operating surplus +
Consumption of Fixed Capital
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
Framework of Pakistan’s NA
Regular Activities:
 GDP/GNP (factor costs) by industrial origin (by
“sector”)
 Expenditure on GNP (market prices)
 Estimates of GFCF (market prices) by industrial origin
for private & public sector and for general government
 Composition of general government consumption
expenditure
Other Activities:
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
Input-Output Tables (1990-91)
Rebasing of National Accounts from 1999-2000 to
2005-06 is in progress
National Health Accounts
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Sectors of the Economy
A. Agriculture Sector
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Crops
Major Crops
Minor Crops
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Live Stock
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Fishery
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Forestry
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Sectors of the Economy
B. Industrial Sector
 Mining and Quarrying
 Manufacturing
Large Scale
Small Scale
Slaughtering
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
Construction
Electricity, Gas & Water Supply
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Sectors of the Economy
C. Services Sector
 Transport, Storage & Communication
 Wholesale & Retail Trade
 Finance & Insurance
 Ownership of Dwellings
 Public Admn. & Defence
 Social, Community & Personal Services
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Sector-wise Methodology and
Sources of Data
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CROPS
Major crops:
Rice, Wheat, Cotton, Sugarcane, Gram, Maize,
etc.
Minor crops:
Pulses, Vegetables, Fruits, Oil seeds,
Condiments, etc.
Intermediate
Consumption:
Seeds, Fertilizer, Pesticides, Water, Transport
Charges, etc.
Sources:
Provincial Agriculture & Irrigation Departments,
IRSA, WAPDA,
Federal Directorate of Fertilizer, Pesticides
Association, etc.
Gross Value
Added:
Value of output including by-products (minus)
Intermediate consumption
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Inputs
Output
125 kinds of
Crops
Quantity
Prices
(of Production)
(Crops)
•Seeds
•Fertilizers
•Ploughing & Planking
•Pesticides, weeding, Spraying etc
•Water
•Transportation charges
•Wastages
Value
Gross Value Added of Crop Production
(Output minus Input)
LIVESTOCK
Composition:
Cattle and their products
Poultry and their products
Intermediate
Consumption:
Roughages (green and dry), Concentrates
(Grains, Oilcakes), Grass & Grazing, salt,
Medicines, etc.
Sources:
Livestock and Dairy Development Division,
Agriculture Census Organization,
Pakistan Poultry Association etc.
Gross Value
Added:
Value of output including by-products (minus)
Intermediate consumption
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Livestock and Poultry
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Livestock
Buffaloes
Cattle
Sheep
Goats
Camels
Horses
Mules
Asses
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Poultry
Broilers (Farming)
Layers (Farming)
Breeding stock (Farming)
Poultry (Desi)
Ducks, Drakes &
Ducklings
Eggs (Farming)
Eggs (Desi)
Gross Output
1.
2.
3.
4.
Net Sale (Sale – Purchase of Animals for
Slaughtering)
Natural Growth
Livestock Products
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Milk
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Draught Power
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Dung & Urine
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Wool & Hair
Poultry Products
 Broilers (Farming)
 Layers (Farming)
 Poultry (Desi)
 Ducks, Drakes & Ducklings
 Breeding Stock (Farming)
 Eggs (Farming)
 Eggs (Desi)
Intermediate Consumption
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Fodder
 Green
 Dry
 Concentrate
Poultry Inputs
Other Inputs
 Transportation, POL, etc
 Medical care etc
 Interest (Bank charges)
 Repair & Maintenance
 Rent Paid (Building, Machinery etc)
 Value of chicks
FISHING
Composition:
Fish, Prawn, Shrimps, crabs, etc. from:
Ocean, Coastal and Offshore water, Fish
farms, Rivers, Canals, Lakes, Ponds, and
inundated tracts, etc.
Intermediate
Consumption:
Salt, Ice, Fuel & Lubricants, Medicines,
Chemicals, etc. and Auction Charges.
Sources:
Marine Fisheries Department, Provincial
Fisheries Departments & Federal Bureau of
Statistics.
Gross Value
Added:
Value of output
consumption
•Marine
•Inland
(minus)
Intermediate
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Fishery
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Marine Fishing
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Inland Fishing
Gross Output
Production
Price
Value of Output
Intermediate consumption
Marine Fishing
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Ice
Salt
Fuel
Gas
Others
Inland Fishing
 Seed
 Feed
 POL /Elect
 Water
 Other
FORESTRY
Composition:
Timber, Firewood, Ephedra, Grass & Grazing,
Resin, Medicinal herbs, and other Minor
Forest Products/Output.
Intermediate
Consumption:
Seeds, plantation, fertilizer, etc.
Sources:
Federal Inspectorate General of Forests.
Provincial Forest Departments.
Pakistan Forest Institute Peshawar
Gross Value
Added:
Value of output (minus) Intermediate
consumption
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MINING & QUARRYING
Composition:
Intermediate
Consumption:
Crude oil, Natural Gas, Coal including other
minerals, e.g.
Rock Salt, Lime Stone,
Dolomite, Gypsum, Fire clay, Phosphate,
Marble, and Surface Minerals.
Blasting Material, Fuel and Lubricants, etc.
Sources:
Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources,
OGDC, etc. Coal and other Mineral
Establishments, Provincial Mineral
Departments
Gross Value
Added:
Value of output (minus) Intermediate
consumption
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LARGE-SCALE MANUFACTURING
Composition:
Sources:
Food, Beverages, Tobacco, Textile, Leather,
Wood & Wood Products, Paper & Boards,
Chemicals, Pharmaceutical, Petroleum, Metal,
Engineering, Electrical, Automobile and other
Industrial products/ groups.
Ministry of Industries, OCAC,Provincial
Bureaux of Statistics, Federal Bureau of
Statistics.
For calculating growth rate of value added, Quantum Index of Manufacturing
(QIM) is computed based on production data of 100 items having 75.07%
weight (bench-mark 1999-2000) of Large Scale Manufacturing Sector.
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SMALL-SCALE MANUFACTURING
Composition:
Benchmark
Estimates of
Gross Value
Added:
Annual Growth:
All un-registered small and household
manufacturing establishments
Based on special study and SHMI
Surveys.
7.51 % based on Study on SSMI
1999-2000
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SLAUGHTERING
The slaughtering industry relates to manufacturing whereas the livestock
is a part of agriculture sector.
Composition:
Intermediate
consumption:
The products meat (beef, mutton, chicken)
and other products (hides, skins, bones and
blood etc) constitute output of slaughtering.
Value of Animals (Buffalo, Cattle, Sheep, Goat,
etc and Poultry (Farm and Desi). Other inputs
Benchmark
Estimates of
Gross Value
Added:
Based on special study (1999-2000).
Value of output (minus) Intermediate
consumption
Source:
Livestock Division,
MINFAL
Annual
Growth:
For calculating GVA of subsequent years,
growth of meat is applied
CONSTRUCTION
Composition:
All major construction activities including
repairs, additions/alterations, Land
Improvement; Buildings; Roads, Bridges,
Streets; Highways; Runways; Transport &
Railway Tracts; Telephone, Power, Gas, Oil,
Utility lines; Canals; Dams; Harbour &
Barrages etc.
Sources:
Federal, Provincial & Local Bodies,
Development Authorities, Major Public &
Private
Construction
Establishments,
Federal Bureau of Statistics.
Value added coefficients of Investment by kind of construction are multiplied to
Investment made in that activity during the year. Value additions of all activities are
summed up.
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ELECTRICITY, GAS DISTRIBUTION &
WATER SUPPLY
Composition:
Electricity, Gas distribution and Water supply
Intermediate
Consumption:
Furnace Oil, Gas, Water, etc.
Sources:
Electricity:
Gas:
Water:
Gross Value
Added:
WAPDA, KESC, KANUPP, Pak Steel, IPPs and
Captive Power units.
Sui Southern and Sui Northern Gas Cos., Mari
Gas etc.
IRSA, Provincial Irrigation Departments.
Value of Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (plus)
Misc. Receipts (minus) Industrial cost &
Electricity/Gas purchases.
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TRANSPORT, STORAGE &
COMMUNICATION
Composition:
Sources:
Gross Value
Added:
Railway, Transport via Air, Water, Road and Pipeline,
Storage & Communication (Post Office, Franchise
Post Offices, Courier Co.s, PTCL, Cable Operators
and ISP’s, Mobile Phone Cos., and PCOs
Pakistan Railways, PNSC, KPT, PQA, KICT, QICT,
PICT,CAA, PIA & other Airlines. NTRC,
Asia Petroleum, PARCO, etc. Boats. PTCL,
NTC,Mobile Phones,ISPs,PCOs, Post Offices,
Courier Services, NLC, Town Committees (for Nonmechanized)
Value of output (plus) Misc. Receipts (minus)
intermediate consumption
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FINANCE & INSURANCE
Composition:
State Bank of Pakistan, Scheduled Banks,
DFIs, Insurance Companies, Modaraba &
Leasing Companies.
Sources:
State Bank of Pakistan, Scheduled Banks,
Development Financial Institutions, Life
and General Insurance Cos, Modarabas &
Leasing Companies.
Gross Value
Added:
Value of output (plus) Misc. Receipts
(minus) intermediate consumption
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WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADE
Composition: All Agricultural, Industrial Produce and
Imports
Sources:
Provincial Governments &
Federal Bureau of Statistics
Value Added: Total value of trade margins applied on
the marketed portions of Agriculture
and Industrial Output as well as
Imports.
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OWNERSHIP OF DWELLINGS
Coverage:
Housing Units (rented as well as self
occupied) and in urban and rural areas
Sources:
Housing Census & Rent Surveys
Value Added:
Gross Rentals (No. of Dwellings
multiplied by average annual rent
(minus)
Value of current repairs and
maintenance.
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PUBLIC ADMN. & DEFENCE
Composition: Federal, Provincial and District
Governments and Cantonment Boards.
Sources:
Gross Value
Added:
Budget documents of Federal, Provincial,
District Governments and Cantonment
Boards.
Sum of the compensation of employees
(all Civil and Defence)
(Plus)
Depreciation on Govt. fixed assets
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COMMUNITY, SOCIAL &
PERSONAL SERVICES
Composition: Education, Health, Business
(Accounting, Auditing, Advertising,
Photography etc.), Recreation, Social,
Personal & Domestic Services, etc.
Sources:
Ministry of Education, PMDC, PNC,
PBA, PEC, ACA, PAA, PHA, etc.
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Capital Formation
What are they? Definition

Usually goods but also services
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That are owned

From which owner expects future economic
benefits over a period of time by using it or
holding it (asset boundary)
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That will be used for more than one year
Fixed Capital Formation
What are they? Scope
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They include
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New capital goods
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Existing capital goods
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Improvements to existing capital goods
They can be
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Purchased
Self-produced
Gross Fixed Capital Formation – Main Types
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Fixed assets
 Dwellings
 Other buildings and structures including land improvements

Machinery and equipment
 Transport equipment
 ICT equipment
 Other machinery and equipment
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Weapon systems
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Cultivated biological resources
 Animal resources yielding repeat products.
 Tree, crop and plant resources yielding repeat products
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Costs of ownership transfer on non-produced assets
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Intellectual property products
 Research and development
 Mineral exploration and evaluation
 Computer software and databases
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Entertainment, literary or artistic originals
Other intellectual property products
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Gross Fixed Capital Formation
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Revised Questionnaire to collect GFCF data
from source agencies
Valuables
What are they? Definition
Valuables are assets that:
 Are acquired as store of wealth
 Are not used up in production
 Do not deteriorate over time
Examples:
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Precious stones and metals
Antiques
Works of arts
Jewellery
Data sources:
 Household surveys (HIES and PSLM)
 Retail trade surveys
 Surveys and censuses of producers
Expenditure on GNP
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Private Final Consumption Expenditure
Government Final Consumption
Expenditure
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Changes in Stocks
Exports (minus imports) of Good and
Services
Net Factor Income from Rest of the
World
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Private Final Consumption Expenditure

Final Consumption of goods and
services of household and private nonprofit institutions serving households

Measured through
 Residually
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Government Final Consumption
Expenditure

Current expenditures on goods and
services by all the departments and
establishments of:
 Federal Government
 Provincial Governments
 District Governments
 Cantonments
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Growth Rates of GDP and its components
(CFC)
Period
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010-11
(R)
2011-12
(P)
GDP
6.8
4.8
6.5
4.6
4.8
3.0
Agri.
5.1
2.4
5.4
4.4
3.2
2.4
Mfg
9.9
5.5
8.2
4.8
7.0
3.1
CPS
6.8
3.9
6.5
4.6
4.3
1.5
Services
6.7
6.3
6.7
4.6
5.3
4.5
3.7
3.1
3.6
3.3
4.0
Growth Rate of Investment, GDP Deflator and CPI
Period
Tot.Inv
Tot.Inv (% National
of GDP)
Savings
(% of
GDP)
GDP
Deflator
CPI
1960s
-
-
-
-
3.2
1970s
21.8
17.1
11.2
-
12.5
1980s
4.2
18.7
14.8
2.3
7.2
1990s
8.1
18.3
13.8
8.3
9.7
2000s
15.0
18.9
16.9
8.7
7.7
2010-11
(R)
2.3
13.1
13.2
18.2
13.9
2011-12
(P)
9.7
12.5
10.7
9.7
10.8
Current Base Period
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1999-2000
The work on change of base 1999-2000 to
2005-06 is in progress.
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Rebasing: why, when?
Why?
 New censuses, surveys, studies
 New price basis
 New concepts (System of National Accounts)
 Improved methods and sources
 Changes in classifications (new PSIC, CPC)
When in Pakistan > FY 1959-60, FY 1980-81
FY 1999-00 and FY 2005-06 (in progress)
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Variables and time-series
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The variables will widely remain the same:
GDP, Gross National Income, value added, Gross
fixed capital formation and other components of
expenditure side of GDP
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It is planned to revise the years prior to the
base year, also (FY 1999/2000 onward).
This is with requests from analysts and researchers
to have long time-series.
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Main improvements of data base

Quantum Index of Manufacturing now rebased
according to Census of Large Scale Manufacturing
Industries 2005-06
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Various new surveys and studies

renewing price base for volume figures (“constant
prices”)
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Adopting the price concept
recommended by SNA 1993 / 2008

The SNA recommends “basic prices” which differ
from “factor cost” by indirect taxes or subsidies which
do not vary with quantity or value of output.
factor cost
+ taxes (less subsidies) on production (e.g. land, vehicles)
= basic prices
+ taxes (less subsidies) on products (e.g. excise duties)
= producers’ prices
+ trade and transport margins
+ non-deductible VAT (Sales Tax)
= purchasers’ prices
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Applying modern classifications
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Industrial classification PSIC 2007, delineated from
United Nations’ “International Standard Industrial
Classification of all Activities” (ISIC), Revision 3.1
(PSIC 2010) which has been adapted from
International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC
REV. 4)
Central Product Classification (CPC) of United
Nations, Version 2F:\Presentations\Presentation
Tehran\CPC Items and weights.xls
52
Main data sources: Censuses
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Census Manufacturing Industries (CMI) 2005-06
Agricultural Census 2000
Livestock Census 2006
Economic Census 2001
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Main data sources: surveys

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Small scale and households manufacturing
industries
Wholesale & retail trade
Storages and warehouses
Rent survey
Family budget survey
Water supply & sanitation
Social, recreational, community & personal
services
….
54
Main data sources: studies
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Inland fishing
Marine fishing
Road transport
Shipping, goods forwarding, customs clearing
International freight forwarding
Travel agents / tour operators
Stock exchange brokers
Exchange companies
…
55
Main data sources: prices

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
CPI and WPI now rebased (2007-08)
PPI for selected commodities
Special surveys on prices of agricultural products and
inputs
Unit value index for exports and imports
Information on administered prices of various goods
and services
► used for inflating volume figures /
deflating value figures
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Main sources of reconciliation



Budget data
Data of State Bank of Pakistan
 External transactions
 Exports and imports
 Net factor income from abroad
 Output of services of MFIs
National Health Accounts
57

Rebasing Exercise in
Manufacturing Sector
Manufacturing
Manufacturing comprises establishments engaged in the physical or
chemical transformation of materials, substances or components
into new products.
It contributes about 19% towards the GDP.
It is covered in section D of the Pakistan Standard Industrial
Classification (PSIC 2007) which has been adapted from
International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC REV. 3.1) and
includes 22 divisions. However it is covered in section C of the
Pakistan Standard Industrial Classification (PSIC 2010) which has
been adapted from International Standard Industrial Classification
(ISIC REV. 4) and includes 24 divisions
Large Scale Manufacturing
Large Scale Manufacturing covers the establishments registered or qualified
for registrations under the Factories Act-1934, having 10 or more employees.
Output in Base Year (Basic Prices)=
Value of Production (Purchaser’s Price)- Trade Margin- Product
Taxes + Subsidies on products
Source: Census of Manufacturing Industries (CMI) 2005-06
Large Scale Manufacturing
Output in Subsequent Years (Basic Prices)=
Output in Subsequent Years will be extrapolated by applying the
Quantum Index of Manufacturing Industries (QIM) comprising 112
items with base year 2005-06
Source: Industry Section, PBS
Large Scale Manufacturing
Intermediate Consumption in base year (Purchaser’s Prices)=
Industrial Cost + Non Industrial Cost
Industrial Cost :- Payments for raw materials, energy & water,
and repair & maintenance
Non Industrial Cost:- Payments for transport, insurance,
copyrights, royalties, postage, telephone, printing, stationary,
advertisements, travelling expenses etc.
Source: Census of Manufacturing Industries (CMI) 2005-06
Large Scale Manufacturing
Intermediate Consumption in Subsequent Years
Intermediate Consumption in Subsequent Years will be
extrapolated by applying the Quantum Index of Manufacturing
Industries (QIM) comprising 112 items with base year 2005-06
Source: Industry Section, PBS
Large Scale Manufacturing
Gross Value Added in Base Year (Basic Prices)=
Output in base year (Basic Price)- Intermediate Consumption base
year (Purchaser’s Price)
Large Scale Manufacturing
Gross Value Added in Subsequent Years (Basic Prices)=
Output in subsequent years (Basic Price)- Intermediate Consumption
subsequent years (Purchaser’s Price)
Large Scale Manufacturing (Example)
LSM Detail working for Rebasing):- (F:\Presentations\Presentation
Tehran\Updated Tables of GVA (LSM) Final 18-05-12.xlsx
Example of Extrapolation by Major Groups:F:\Presentations\Presentation Tehran\Extrapolation of Output, IC of
LSM 2005-06 to 11-12.xlsx
Small Scale Manufacturing
Gross Value Added in Base Year (Basic Prices)=
Output in base year (Basic Price)- Intermediate Consumption
base year (Purchaser’s Price)
Small Scale Manufacturing
Gross Value Added in Subsequent Years (Basic Prices)=
Output in subsequent years (Basic Price)- Intermediate Consumption
subsequent years (Purchaser’s Price)
Example:-SSMI Working, GVA and Deflators Final 18-05-2012.xlsx
SSMI Extrapolation.xlsx
The solution for small scale
manufacturing



It is obvious that the study 1999-2000 failed to
reflect the actual development.
The inter-survey growth of GVA at factor cost
(constant prices) during the period between 1987-88
and 2006-07 is 6.7 % while between 1996-97 and
2006-07 it was 8.2 %.
As an average of the two, the rate of 7.5 has been
applied for all years since 1999-2000.
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The idea of FISIM




Lending of money is not an activity contributing to GDP.
Therefore, interest payments as such are not a reward for
production. They are recorded under “distribution”,
instead.
Nevertheless, the banks are providing a service called
“financial intermediation services indirectly measured”
(FISIM). For short, it is an imputation calculated as
interest received by them minus interest paid by them.
Consumption of FISIM is either intermediate or final.
70
Future Plans
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Rebasing 2005-06 until 2009-10 (“final”)
Calculate results 2010-11, 2011-12 and 2012-13 as
“preliminary” but with new base
Publish all results along with meta data
Compilation of Input and Output PPI,s to ensure the
implementation of Double Deflation
Launching Quarterly National Accounts
Launching Supply and Use Tables (2005-06)
71
Thank you
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