Transcript Mid term workshop for Community-Based Adaptation Climate Change and Adaptation:

Mid term workshop for
Community-Based Adaptation
Kingston, Jamaica 29 June -3 July 2009
Climate Change and Adaptation:
A Threat to Development and the
Response
Jeffery Spooner
Climate Branch Head
Meteorological Service
Adaptation Fund Board Member (GRULCA)
OUTLINE
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Climate and society linkages
Climate Change threats to these
Common terms in Climate Change Adaptation
Climate Change hazards, adaptive capacity and
risk
Adaptive capacity
The UNFCCC
The purpose of adaptation
The Adaptation Fund
Recommendation
Climate and society linkages
Agriculture
Biophysical impacts:
• Changes in quality, quantity of crops,
pasture, forests and livestock
• Changes in quantity, quality of land, soil
and water
• Changes in weeds and pests
• Shifts in spatial and temporal distribution
of impacts
• Sea level rise, changes to ocean salinity
• Increase in sea temperature changes fish
stocks
• Rain-fed agriculture impacted more than
irrigated agriculture due to changes in
rainfall patterns
Climate and society linkages
Agriculture:
Socio-economic impacts:
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Declines in yields and production
Changes in crop suitability
Reduced GDP from agriculture
Increase in the cost of irrigation water
due to rainfall changes
Fluctuations in world market prices
Changes in geographical distribution of
trade regimes
Food insecurity and an increase in # of
people at risk of hunger
Possible migration and civil unrest
Climate and society linkages
Water
IPCC Technical Paper: “Climate Change
and Water”:
• freshwater resources are vulnerable
• have the potential to be strongly
impacted by CC, with wide ranging
consequences for human societies and
ecosystems
• Water availability for domestic,
agriculture and industrial sectors
impacted
Implications for:
• human health
• human settlement
• food security
• ability of countries to
develop manufacturing
Climate and society linkages
Health
•Human health impacted due to CC
impacts on agriculture and water
Vulnerability and adaptation assessment on the human health sector completed by
the Climate Study Group at the University of the West Indies at Mona:
Higher temperatures are strongly associated with:
•heat stress
•increased episodes of diarrheal diseases
•increased dangerous pollutants, especially ozone, leading to respiratory diseases
•mosquito habitats moving to higher altitudes
•greater contact between food and pest species, especially flies
Sea food poisoning can increase: fish feeding on toxic algae blooms caused by
warmer seas
Climate and society linkages
Health
• Climate extremes climate can lead to
pathogen loading of rivers and
contamination of potable water in the
case of droughts
• Fires caused by droughts can lead to
respiratory diseases
• Flooding associated with storms and
hurricanes can lead to increases of
water-borne and rodent-borne
diseases, especially leptospirosis
• Increased hunger and malnutrition
• Increases in asthma and other
respiratory ailments
Climate and society linkages
Natural resources
(forests, biodiversity, ecosystem services)
• More frequent coral bleaching events due to
increased sea temperatures
• Increasing species range shifts and wildfire
risk
• Species at increasing risk of extinction
• Increased risk of forest fires and tree death
due to drought and increased temperatures
in some ecosystems
Climate and society linkages
Climate related disasters
• More intense storms, such as cyclones, due to rise in sea temperature
• More frequent and severe droughts
• More intense rainfall raises risks of landslides, flooding
• Glacial Lake Outburst Flooding (GLOF) due to melting glaciers in mountain
areas
Climate Change Hazards, Adaptive Capacity, Risk (1)
 Hazard: is defined as “A potentially damaging physical
event, phenomenon or human activity that may cause the loss of
life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption
or environmental degradation”
 Hence, Climate Change Hazard is understood as some
external influence that may adversely affect a valued attribute of
a system as a result of Climate Change.
Climate Change Hazards, Adaptive Capacity, Risk (2)
 What is Adaptive Capacity?
• The ability of a system to adjust to climate change
(including climate variability and extremes) to moderate
potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or
to cope with the consequences
• The Adaptive capacity of society refers to the ability to
plan, prepare for, facilitate and implement adaptation
measures
• Factors that determine adaptive capacity of the human
systems include wealth, technology, information and skills,
infrastructure, institutions, social capital and equity.
 So Adaptive Capacity tells the level of Vulnerability
Climate Change Hazards, Adaptive Capacity, Risk (3)
 Risk: Can be broadly defined as “the likelihood of an
adverse event or outcome”
Risk = (Hazard) x (Adaptive Capacity)
**** The higher the Adaptive Capacity the lower the
Vulnerability & vice-versa
Common terms in climate change adaptation
General Circulation Model (GCM)
A computer-generated mathematical model of the
general circulation of the Earth’s atmosphere or ocean
used to predict potential impacts of climate change.
Regional climate models (RCM)
Similar to global climate models, but of higher resolution
and better able to predict climate change impacts for
specific regions.
Special Report on Emissions (SRES) Scenarios
A series of emissions scenarios created by the IPCC.
These scenarios are commonly used in GCMs to model
climate change impacts.
Threshold
The point at which a physical effect begins to be
pronounced. In the climate change context, 2 degrees C
of warming is considered the threshold for dangerous
warming.
Adaptive Capacity of Developed Countries
Vs Developing Countries
Since:
• Factors that determine adaptive capacity of the human
systems include wealth, technology, information and skills,
infrastructure, institutions, social capital and equity
&
• The Adaptive capacity of society refers to the ability to
plan, prepare for, facilitate and implement adaptation
measures
Then
• It goes without saying that: The Adaptive Capacity is
higher in developed countries and lower in developing
countries.
Examples:
Thames Barrier is a large
flood control structure built to
prevent London from being
flooded by an exceptionally high
tides-provides a barrier against sea
level rise.
With a 1 meter sea level rise, Banjul,
capital of The Gambia is likely to be
submerged.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC)
Article 2 of the UNFCCC:
The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal
instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to
achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the
Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level
should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow
ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that
food production is not threatened and to enable economic
development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
Article 2 of the UNFCCC:
Consequence
Hazard
Aims to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change
by stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions, thus allowing
through adaptation and mitigation Management options
the Ecosystems to adapt naturally & Food security to be
maintained & Sustainable development to proceed
Management criteria
Principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities
Important international principle from the UNFCCC (1992)
• All countries contribute to climate change by emitting the greenhouse gases
responsible for climate change, so climate change is common problem that
all countries must respond to.
• BUT some countries bear more responsibility due to their past emissions of
greenhouses gases.
Differentiation between developed and developing countries:
• Developing countries (also known as non-Annex I countries) are expected to
contribute more to global climate change response because of their
disproportionate share of emissions and their capacity to help developing
countries.
How this is will be defined in practice is highly controversial, and the subject
of negotiations.
Management options: Mitigation & Adaptation
Mitigation:
Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
such as:
•Switching to low-carbon (natural gas) or
carbon-free energy sources (wind or solar
power)
•Improving the efficiency of buildings and
vehicles so that they use less fossil fuels
AND efforts to enhance or preserve the
natural sinks (for example, forests) that
absorb carbon emissions
WITH THE GOAL OF REDUCING THE
EXTENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Adaptation:
What is adaptation to climate change?
IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001)
“…adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual
or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, that moderates harm
and exploits beneficial opportunities.”
UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework
Adaptation is a process by which individuals, communities, and
countries seek to cope with the consequences of climate change,
including variability.
Practical Question:
How do we help developing countries and communities prepare
for and adjust to the impacts of climate change?
The purpose of adaptation
What adaptation is, and what adaptation isn’t
Adaptation is:
Responding to climate change, because
climate change both threatens development
gains already achieved and our ability to
achieve future environment and
development gains
Adaptation is NOT:
A new name for development
Adaptation Funds
The GEF currently has three adaptation funds authorized by
the UNFCCC.
FINANCING ADAPTATION: OPPORTUNITIES FOR INNOVATION AND
EXPERIMENTATION, MANISH BAPNA AND HEATHER MCGRAY, WRI.
Adaptation Funding
The Adaptation Fund was established by the Parties to the Kyoto
Protocol of the UNFCCC;
• To finance concrete adaptation Projects/Programmes in
developing countries that are Parties to the Kyoto Protocol
• The Fund will be financed with 2% of the Certified Emission
Reductions (CERs) issued for projects of the Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM) and with funds from other sources.
• Key Decisions re: The AF & AFB may be accessed on the
Adaptation Fund web site at:
http://www.adaptation-fund.org/documents.html
• The GEF provides secretariat services to the AFB, on an
interim basis
• The World Bank operates as trustee for the AF on an
interim basis
• The AFB met 4 times last year and twice since 2009
• The World Bank has been mandated to monetize a
percentage of the CERs
• The modalities for accessing funding from the AF is almost
complete and the The Operational Policies and Guidelines for
Parties to Access Resources from the Adaptation Fund should
be completed before the end of 2009.
Meteorological Service, Jamaica
 Some Guidelines w.r.t accessing resources from the AF:
 Two financing Windows:
• Small – size Projects/Programmes (request up to $1million)
• Projects/Programmes (request over $1 million)
Implementing Entities:
 Two types of Implementing Entities:
• The National Implementing Entity (NIE): Those legal
entities, nominated by Parties that are recognized by the
Board as meeting the fiduciary standards established by the
Board.
• The Multilateral Implementing Entity (MIE): those
Multilateral, Regional or Sub-regional Institutions and
Regional Banks that are identified ex-ante or recognized by
the Board as meeting the fiduciary standards established by
the Board.
Meteorological Service, Jamaica
 Executing Entities: Are organizations that execute adaptation
Projects/Programmes supported by the Fund under the oversight of
an Implementing Entity (NIE or MIE).
• Parties may nominate Regional and Sub-regional Entities to act
as National Implementing Entity (NIE).
In the case of Regional (ie: multi-country) Projects/Programmes,
the proposal submitted to the AFB should be endorsed by
participating Parties
 All Projects/Programmes submitted to the Secretariat by the
NIE or MIE chosen by the Government must be endorsed by the
UNFCCC Focal Point or the authority designated by the Party to
so do.
Meteorological Service, Jamaica
Direct access by Parties to the Resources from the AF
Trustee
Board
MIE*
Ex. Entity
Ex. Entity
NIE*
Ex. Entity
Ex. Entity
Financial transfer
Proposal submission and contract
Proposal elaboration and oversight
Instruction
Direct Access Modality
Endorsement (from NIE in case of MIE)
* A Party nominates either a Multilateral or National Implementing
MeteorologicalEntity.
Service,
Jamaica
 Two Stage Project Cycle
• Small–size Projects/Programmes (request up to $1million)
will undergo a single approval process by the Board
• Projects/ Programmes (requesting for over $1 million):
To undergo a double approval process.
 (Step 1): The submission of a concept document of the project
and once this is given the ok
 (Step 2): The Party can submit the Project/Programme.
• To reduce time needed
 Recommendation: Strongly urge that Projects/Programmes
are developed and be ready for submission for funding once the
call is made early in the 2nd half of 2009.
Meteorological Service, Jamaica
What does the operationalization of the Adaptation Fund mean
for community-based adaptation?
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Meteorological Service, Jamaica