Transcript Document 7107984

Use of Force
Lsn 15
Use of Force
• The use of force almost always represents the
partial failure of policy
– War is a continuation of “policy” (or “politics”) by other
means.
• Clausewitz
• Because of the high costs of violence, the use of
force is tempered by restraints and bargaining
– Even if countries differ enough to go to war, they
usually share some common interests that will
encourage them to continue bargaining
– Only in the case of a “zero sum” situation in which
everything is good for one side and bad for the other
does the motivation to bargain not exist
Use of Force
• The distinction between diplomacy and
force is in the relation between
adversaries
– Diplomatic bargaining seeks outcomes that,
though not ideal for each side, are better for
both than some of the alternatives
– If it thinks it has enough military force, a
country may decide it has no need to bargain.
It may attempt to merely take what it wants.
The Costs of Violence
• Wars have become increasingly
destructive because of:
– The steady technological improvements of
weaponry
– The growth in capacity, and therefore need,
for states to field larger and larger numbers of
forces
– The gradual “democratization” of war (the
expansion of the battlefield and hence the
increased involvement of noncombatants)
Use of Force
• In addition to traditionally defeating an enemy, force can
be used to “hurt” an enemy
– “This movement is not purely military or strategic, but
will illustrate the vulnerability of the South. They don’t
know what war means, but when the rich planters of
the Oconee and Savannah see their fences and corn
and hogs and sheep vanish before their eyes they will
have something more than a mean opinion of the
‘Yanks.’”
• Sherman’s plan for his March to the Sea
• The threat of damage (or more damage to come) can
compel an enemy to yield or comply
• This type of threat is most valuable when held in reserve
Asymmetric Use of Force
• When one side desires to
use force but is clearly
outmatched in terms of
conventional forces, it may
use asymmetric force
– Leveraging inferior tactical or
operational strength against
an enemy’s to achieve
disproportionate effect with
the aim of undermining the
enemy’s will in order to
achieve the asymmetric
actor’s strategic objectives.
Functions That Force Can Serve
• Defense
– Designed to ward off attack and to minimize
damage to oneself if attacked
• Deterrence
– Prevent an adversary from doing something
that one does not want him to do and that he
might otherwise be tempted to do by
threatening him with unacceptable
punishment if he does it
Functions That Force Can Serve
(cont)
• Compellence
– Designed to either stop an adversary from
doing something that he has already
undertaken or to get him to do something that
he has not yet undertaken
• “Swaggering”
– Not aimed directly at defense, deterrence, or
compellence, but instead designed to
enhance the national pride of a people or to
satisfy the personal ambitions of a ruler
Case Study
Berlin Blockade
Post World War II Berlin
Berlin Blockade and Airlift
• In June 1948, the Soviet
Union attempted to control all
of Berlin by cutting surface
traffic to and from West Berlin.
• The Truman Administration
initiated a daily airlift which
brought much needed food
and supplies into West Berlin.
• The airlift lasted until the end
of September 1949 -although on May 12, 1949, the
Soviet government had
yielded and lifted the
blockade.
Berlin Airlift
The maximum effort of the airlift was the “Easter Parade”
on April 16, 1949 when 1,398 sorties (one landing in Berlin
every minute) delivered 12,940 short tons.
Berlin Blockade
• Discuss the Berlin Blockade as an
example of “policy continued by other
means.”
• Discuss the Berlin Blockade as an
example of force’s ability to cause “hurt.”
• Discuss the Berlin Blockade as a
competition among competing wills.
Case Study
Libya: Operation El Dorado
Canyon
Libya: Background
• Muammar Qadhafi seized
power in Libya in 1969 and
quickly came into conflict
with the US over
allegations of sponsoring
terrorism and claiming the
Gulf of Sidra belonged to
Libya
• Tensions reached a peak in
1981 when the US shot
down two Libyan planes
while the US Sixth Fleet
conducted exercises in the
gulf
Libya: La Belle Disco
• Confrontations and skirmishes
continued in the Mediterranean
• On April 5, 1986, a bomb
exploded in the La Belle
discotheque in Berlin, an
establishment frequented by US
soldiers
• Two American soldiers and a
Turkish civilian were killed and
another 229 people were
wounded, including 79
Americans
• The attack was quickly traced to
Libya
Libya: Operation El Dorado Canyon
• On April 15-16, the US launched Operation El Dorado
Canyon which involved more than 100 US aircraft
attacking Libyan ground targets in five areas (four of the
targets were connected to Libya’s terrorist operations)
• France refused to grant the US overflight permission
which necessitated a much longer flight route refueling of
the aircraft in a much longer flight around the Iberian
peninsula
• Nonetheless the US dropped over 60 tons of munitions
in a 12 minute strike
– The Libyans failed to get a single aircraft airborne to challenge
the attack
– One US plane was shot down
Libya: Operation El Dorado Canyon
• President Reagan said, “We believe that this
pre-emptive action against his terrorist
installations will not only diminish Colonel
Qaddafi's capacity to export terror, it will provide
him with incentives and reasons to alter his
criminal behavior.”
• After the operation, the US pointed to a
decrease in Libyan sponsored terrorism (until
the 1988 bombing of Pan Am flight 103 over
Scotland which killed 259 people, most of whom
were Americans)
Libya: Operation El Dorado Canyon
• Discuss the La Belle bombing as an
asymmetric use of force.
• Discuss Operation El Dorado Canyon as
being pursuant to the “compellent” function
of force.
• Discuss the US choice of an air strike as
opposed to other alternative methods such
as a ground attack.
Case Study
Iran-Iraq War
Iran-Iraq War
Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988):
Background
• Underlying causes of the war included Sunni vs
Shi’ite religious tensions and Persian vs Arab
ethnic tensions
• The immediate cause was that Iraqi President
Saddam Hussein was concerned about Iranian
efforts to undermine his regime
– Saddam hoped to curtail the spread of Islamic
fundamentalism to which Iraq’s Shi’ite population
seemed increasingly vulnerable
– He also wanted to increase his influence in the
Persian Gulf by seizing key geographic areas
Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988):
Background
• Saddam had spent
vast sums on
improving his
military and he
also knew the
Iranian military was
weakened by the
upheaval of the
1979 Iranian
Revolution
– Saddam expected
a short war
Iraqi President
Saddam Hussein
Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988):
Iraqi Attack
• On Sept 22, 1980 Iraq
launched a surprise attack
against ten Iranian airfields
• Then Iraq launched ground
attacks on four separate
axes
– Most of Iran’s advanced
planes were in protective
hangars so the surprise aerial
attack had little effect
– The ground attack also
produced little and after about
a week Saddam called for a
cease-fire
Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988):
Iranian Recovery
• Saddam renewed his
offensive with several
subsequent attacks but by
March 1981 they had all
exhausted themselves
• Instead of the quick victory
Saddam had hoped for, all
he had done was give the
Iranian revolutionary
regime a rallying cry to
mobilize its people
– Now Iraq faced a total war
against an enemy with far
greater population and
resources
Iran-Iraq War: (1980-1988):
International Response
• In spite of Saddam’s
record of human rights
abuses, the international
community seemed more
afraid of the spread of
Ayatollah Khomeini’s
influence in the Middle
East
• Consequently there was
little support for Iran even
though Iraq had initiated
the aggression
– Logistical shortages would
hinder Iran throughout the
war
Iran seized 66 American
hostages in the
revolution that brought
Khomeini to power
Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988):
Iranian Attacks
• From Sept 1981 through May 1982, Iran seized the
initiative through poorly coordinated attacks that relied
on superior numbers to make up for inferior
commanders, staffs, and equipment
• In some cases the Iranians used human wave attacks
spearheaded by religiously motivated children and old
men who would race forward and use their bodies to
detonate concealed mines
• Then waves of poorly trained militia threw themselves on
the barbed wire to try to make a breach
• Finally better trained and equipped soldiers would attack
over the mangled bodies of the initial waves
Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988):
Iranian Successes
• As time passed the
Iranians developed
better tactics but still
suffered huge losses
• Nonetheless the
Iranians succeeded in
pushing the Iraqis
back and in June 1982
Saddam ordered the
evacuation of most of
the territory seized
from Iran
Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988):
Chemical Weapons
• Iran then shifted its
emphasis from
defense to offense
• In July the Iranians
attacked Basra, Iraq’s
second largest city,
and in October they
attacked toward
Baghdad
• The Iraqis repelled the
attacks, using limited
amounts of mustard
gas and possibly nerve
gas in the process
Iranian soldier with
a protective mask
Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988):
Tanker War
• In 1984 the war escalated to a new level when
Saddam began using his superior air power to
halt the shipment of Iranian oil through the
Persian Gulf
• The Iraqis shipped most of their oil by pipeline
so the Iranians were not able to retaliate against
Iraqi shipping
• Instead Iran attacked the ships of Iraq’s allies,
Kuwait and Saudi Arabia
– This became known as the “Tanker War”
Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988):
War of the Cities
• From March to June 1985
the “War of the Cities”
occurred with both sides
launching missile attacks
at major population
centers
• As the Iranians
increasingly dominated
the ground war, Iraq
stepped up its air attacks
Both sides fired
SCUD missiles at
each other’s cities
Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988):
US Involvement
• In 1987 the US began playing
an increasingly active role
having concluded that an
Iranian victory would be
contrary to US interests in the
region
• Kuwait transferred ownership
of half of its tankers to a US
shipping company and US
warships provided security for
them in the Persian Gulf
• There were several direct
interactions between the US
and Iran including the Iranian
cruise missile attack against
the USS Stark which killed 37
Americans
The USS Stark after the attack
Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988):
Iraqi Advantage
• Iran began increasingly
wary of even greater US
involvement
• The strategic situation
was beginning to favor
Iraq, and Iraq responded
with renewed offensives
– Iraq scored a huge victory
in the Haur-al-Hawizeh
marshes but then
withdrew in an apparent
attempt to signal to Iran a
willingness to end the war
Donald Rumsfeld,
President Reagan’s
special envoy to the
Middle East, meeting
with Saddam in 1983
Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988):
Iranian Difficulties
• The USS Vincennes
mistakenly identified an Iranian
civilian airplane with 290
people on board as a war
plane and shot it down
• The incident hurt Iranian
morale
• Iran was also suffering from
serious supply shortages and
increasingly successful Iraqi
attacks
• Iran could respond only with
human wave attacks, but
unlike in 1980, volunteers
Iranian stamp commemorating
were less abundant
the USS Vincennes incident
Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988):
Peace
• Finally Iran accepted a truce
and the war ended on Aug
20, 1988
• In the end, neither side
gained anything of
significance and instead
plundered their treasuries
and wasted thousands of
lives
– The war left Iraq with over $90
billion in debts
– This later contributed to
Saddam’s decision to invade
Kuwait in 1990
Iran-Iraq War
• What factor influenced Saddam’s decision to attack Iran
when he did (rather than taking a diplomatic approach)?
• Discuss the Iran-Iraq war in terms of the
“democratization” of war that has made modern warfare
more costly.
– At the same time discuss Saddam’s change in strategy from
defeating the Iranians on the battlefield to “hurting” them.
• Describe the US decision to reflag Kuwaiti tankers as
one of the deterrent functions of the use of force.
• Explain why Iran and Iraq decided to stop fighting even
though no long term issues had been resolved for either
side.
Practical Exercise: China and
Taiwan
• In April 2001, President Bush vowed to do
“"whatever it takes” to defend Taiwan from
any Chinese attack
• Hypothetical situation:
– US intelligence discovers China has
increased its ballistic missiles targeted on
Taiwan and Chinese officials make numerous
threats to squash what they perceive as a
dangerous independence movement in
Taiwan
Practical Exercise: China and
Taiwan
• Hypothetical situation continued:
– The US responds by increased military sales
to Taiwan, including air defense systems, and
making diplomatic statements pledging its
resolve to defend Taiwan against an attack
from China
China’s Military Options for Taiwan
• Launch an invasion of Taiwan or an
offshore island, using amphibious or other
sea or air transported forces.
• Impose a blockade on Taiwan’s commerce
as a means of coercing political
concessions.
• Coerce Taiwan by means of air or missile
strikes on Taiwan’s population, military
assets, or economic infrastructure.
Chinese Strategic Considerations
• Have a plan to avoid, discourage, forestall,
or react to a possible US intervention on
Taiwan’s side.
• Attempt to contain and limit the conflict,
but fight with sufficient force and tactics to
achieve a military solution before outside
powers could intervene militarily, and
before vital trade and foreign investment
are disrupted
Possible Chinese Indications of
Intent to Invade Taiwan
• Assembling an armada of amphibious
landing craft
• Sabotage or attacks on Taiwan’s early
warning radar or intelligence collection
facilities
• A major logistics buildup opposite Taiwan
• Forward deployment of troops and
equipment
• Major improvements in sealift capability
Force Comparison
• China
– Air Force of 470,000
airmen and 4,000 combat
aircraft (perhaps 2/3
however are obsolete)
– Army of 1.9 million soldiers,
14,000 tanks, and 453
helicopters
– Navy of 250,000 sailors,
63 submarines, 18
destroyers, and 35 frigates
• Taiwan
– Air Force of 45,000 airmen,
and 420 combat aircraft
– Army of 240,000 soldiers
and 900 tanks
– Navy of 62,000 sailors and
marines, 4 submarines
– Naval aviation wing
equipped with 32 combat
aircraft and 20 armed
helicopters.
Taiwanese Strategic
Considerations
• Do not provoke a Chinese attack
• Avoid vulnerability to a sudden assault
from China that occurs so quickly that
Taiwan is forced to capitulate before the
US is able to respond in a meaningful,
timely manner.
US Strategic Considerations
• Ideally, avoid any use or threat of force to
resolve differences in the Taiwan Strait.
• Persuade China against or deter China from
attacking or threatening attack
• If those efforts fail, facilitate Taiwan’s ability to
defend itself without outside assistance or, as a
fallback, defend itself long enough to permit
outside assistance
• If China attacks and the US decides to
intervene, the combination of Taiwan and US
forces must be able to defeat the Chinese attack
Possible US Deterrent Actions
•
•
•
•
Diplomatic activity in the UN
US Navy show of force
Increased military sales to Taiwan
Forward deployment of US troops to a
staging area closer to Taiwan
• Joint exercise with Taiwanese troops
Practical Exercise
• Role players
– China
– Taiwan
– US
• “Action, reaction, counteraction”
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Pitfalls