Transcript IAEA
Implementation Concepts for Unattended Measurement Systems at Enrichment Plants L. Eric Smith, Alain Lebrun IAEA January 2012 IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency IAEA’s “Model Approach for GCEPs” High-capacity plants pose implementation challenges for current approaches. Safeguards objectives: Timely detection of… • Diversion from declared input and output • Undeclared (excess) production of normal enrichment levels • Higher-than-declared enrichment (e.g. HEU) Implementation objectives • Reduce need for routine measurements, sampling during inspections* • Ease and expedite cylinder release process for facility operators How might unattended measurement systems contribute? IAEA *Related work by Boyer, et al. (IAEA Symposium 2010) Potential Roles: Unattended Measurement Systems Process MBA Pressure Cylinder Storage MBA Pressure (Temp) UF6 Load Cell NaI(Tl) m Computer E(t) Collimator Load-cell monitoring Online Enrichment Monitor (OLEM) Unattended Cyl. Verification Station (UCVS) M(t) for each cylinder High-accuracy E(t) for each cylinder Continuous gas monitoring High-accuracy net mass “NDA Seal” for CoK on cylinder contents Assay of blended cylinders Ecyl = E(t)*M(t) MU IAEA M235 = Ecyl * MU Concept: Load-Cell Monitoring tstart IAEA M(t) tend Concept: On-Line Enrichment Monitor E(t) ∝ Rgas_186keV (t) * rgas (P, T, t) CEMO OLEM Cascade 1 NaI(Tl) Cascade 2 Cascade 3 Pressure Temperature P ~ 40 Torr Load Cell Cascade 4 Header Pump Gas Sampling P ~ 4 Torr UF6 Header Pipe IAEA Cylinder 1) 2) M(t) Mass Spec Analysis High-accuracy E(t) for product and tails Continuous monitoring of gas OLEM Viability Studies: Examples Statistical uncertainty only--systematic uncertainties are not addressed.** 10.0 Tails 9.0 Total Uncertainty (%) . 8.0 Low P: 10 Torr High P: 50 Torr Low D: 100 mg/cm2 High D: 1000 mg/cm2 Low P High D E = 0.2% High P Low D 7.0 Feed 6.0 Product E = 0.711% Low P High P High D Low D 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 E = 5.0% Low P High P High D Low D E = 2.0% Low P High P High D Low D Performance Targets Tails: sT < 3% Feed: sF < 2% Product: sP < 1% 1.0 0.0 IAEA **Plot from Smith and Lebrun (IEEE Nuclear Science Symposium, 2011) Related work by Ianakiev (ESARDA 2010) and March-Leuba (personal communication, 2012) Concept: Unattended Cylinder Verification Station 1) 2) 3) 4) Apply and verify “NDA Seal” at MBA boundaries (CoK) Unattended NDA of M235 for blended cylinders Recovery of CoK on cylinders Platform for weight, NDA verification during inspections Mass: Shared-use or IAEA scale NDA**: Hybrid (PNNL), PNEM (LANL), other? Cylinder ID: L2IS, Global Bar Code, other? Surveillance: NGSS **from Smith (INMM 2010) IAEA **Related Work Smith (IEEE TNS 2010, INMM 2010), McDonald (INMM 2011) Miller (ESARDA 2011) UCVS Viability Studies: Example “Hybrid NDA” for 235U Assay (30B cylinders) Intl. Target Value: sP ~ 5% Hybrid NDA (preliminary) sP ~ 2.5% sF ~ ?? sT ~ ?? Other NDA methods? sP = 2.5% IAEA 8 NDA Seal? **Plot from Smith et al. (INMM 2010) UMS Implementation Concepts “Special” treatment of feed • Challenges • • Largest 235U flow rate • Poor assay accuracy (OLEM wall-deposit issues, UCVS > 6%) Advantages (assuming natural feed) • Isotopics are precisely known • Cylinders should be homogeneous Baseline Concept • • • • No quantitative assay of feed assume Ecyl = 0.711% sF ~ 0.0%...if UCVS verifies that Ecyl_UCVS is consistent with feed-cylinder profile OLEM only on product and tails header pipes UCVS quantitative NDA on blended product cylinders IAEA Implementation Concepts: Viability Analysis Overview Scenario: Diversion into MUF or D • 235U bias defect in product and tail cylinders • SQ = 75 kg 235U (LEU, NU, DU) Viability Metric: Fidelity of 235U mass balance (“IMUF”) • Assume no waste, scrap, etc. • IMUF = F – (P + T) • sMUF2 = sF2 + sP2 + sT2 • Threshold = 3*sMUF • PD for 1SQ diversion? PD IAEA **from C. Norman, IAEA Implementation Concepts: Viability Analysis Reference Facility: 4,000,000 SWU/year, 0.711%, 3.0%, 0.25% Feed 6 000 000 kg U/year Product 1 000 000 Tails 5 000 000 Feed 710 cylinders/year Product 667 Tails 592 Analysis variables: OLEM s , UCVS sP , blend fraction, balance period Balance Period = 1 month OLEM s Concept ID 1 2 3 4 5 F 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.00 IAEA P 1.0 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 UCVS s T 3.0 1.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 P 3.0 3.0 3.0 6.0 0.0 = Baseline Concept Blend Fraction F 0.05 0.05 0.30 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.95 s (SQ) P OLEM UCVS 0.32 0.05 0.16 0.05 0.23 0.30 0.23 0.60 0.33 0.00 T s (SQ) Total PD (% ) Total 0.42 0.21 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.53 0.27 0.56 0.77 1.09 13.6 77.4 11.0 4.5 1.9 Implementation Concepts: Viability Analysis Balance Period = 1 week OLEM s Concept ID 1 2 3 4 5 F 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.00 IAEA P 1.0 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 UCVS s T 3.0 1.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 P 3.0 3.0 3.0 6.0 0.0 Blend Fraction F 0.05 0.05 0.30 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 s (SQ) P OLEM UCVS 0.07 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.05 0.07 0.05 0.14 0.08 0.00 T s (SQ) Total PD (% ) Total 0.10 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.12 0.06 0.13 0.18 0.25 100.0 100.0 100.0 99.6 83.7 Conclusions • High-capacity plants require new instruments and approaches • Integrated UMS: “Independent” 235U and U balances on 100% flow • NDA Seal for cylinder CoK • Special treatment of feed • PD values (scoping) for protracted diversion are encouraging • UMS Role: Rule out protracted diversion between inspections • Machines do routine measurements • Inspectors do what humans do best (investigate) • Many questions and issues ahead…for example • • • • Relevance for diversion and excess production scenarios Realistic OLEM and UCVS uncertainties Data security for shared-use instruments Operator impacts, acceptability IAEA Additional Information IAEA Potential Impacts to Operators Potential Impact Eased and expedited cylinder release process Reduced physical presence of inspectors Reduced sampling requirements on cylinders Cylinder tracking infrastructure OLEM for process control and criticality control Load-cell (and accountancy scale?) data sharing OLEM nodes installed on header pipes (2 per unit); additional P gauges UCVS installation(s) UCVS scans on cylinders moving in/out of MBAs IAEA Material Flow and Data Streams Unblended Product and Tails Cylinders Process MBA UCVS Storage MBA Load Cell OLEM Load Cell: M(t) OLEM: E(t) Ecyl_OLEM = E(t)*M(t) Ecyl_OLEM : sP < 1%, sT < 3% NDA Seal Scale: Mempty , Mfull , sM < 0.1% M235_OLEM = Ecyl_OLEM * MU M235_OLEM : sP < 1%, sT < 3% Facility-Level Data: MU , M235_OLEM , NDA Seal IAEA Material Flow and Data Streams Feed Cylinders Process MBA UCVS Storage MBA Load Cell Load Cell: M(t) Ecyl = known = 0.711% Ecyl : sF ~ 0.0% NDA Seal: “nominal” feed? Scale: Mempty , Mfull , sM < 0.1% M235 = Ecyl * MU M235 : sF ~ 0.1% Facility-Level Data: MU , M235 , NDA Seal IAEA Material Flow and Data Streams Blended Product Cylinders Process MBA UCVS Storage MBA Blending Station Quantitative NDA of Ecyl_UCVS : sP ~ 3 - 6% NDA Seal Scale: Mempty , Mfull , sM < 0.1% M235_UCVS = Ecyl_UCVS * MU M235_UCVS : sP ~ 3 - 6% IAEA Facility-Level Data: MU , M235_UCVS , NDA Seal Implementation Concepts: Viability Analysis Balance Period = 2 weeks OLEM s Concept ID 1 2 3 4 5 F 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.00 IAEA P 1.0 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 UCVS s T 3.0 1.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 P 3.0 3.0 3.0 6.0 0.0 Blend Fraction F 0.05 0.05 0.30 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.44 s (SQ) P OLEM UCVS 0.15 0.02 0.07 0.02 0.11 0.14 0.11 0.28 0.15 0.00 T s (SQ) Total PD (% ) Total 0.19 0.10 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.24 0.12 0.26 0.35 0.50 86.9 100.0 80.0 43.1 15.7 UCVS Technical Objectives • Quantitative assay of cylinder enrichment M235 in each cylinder • • • • • Measurement scenario: Single measurement of many different cylinders Key metric: Absolute accuracy for quantification of M235 Preliminary accuracy targets: sP < 3%, sF < 6%, sT < 9% for M235 Full-volume interrogation (i.e. sensitive partial defect detection) Unattended operation • NDA Seal Continuity of knowledge on cylinder contents • • • • • • Measurement scenario: Repeated measurements on a single cylinder Key metric: Reproducibility of key signatures and attributes Candidate attributes: E, MU, 234/235, 232/235, 235 spatial distribution Preliminary uncertainty targets: TBD, but likely < 0.5% Full-volume interrogation (i.e. sensitive partial defect detection) Unattended operation The NDA Seal is a recent addition to the potential roles of the UCVS. The concept requires a viability assessment based on measurements and modeling. IAEA “NDA Seal” Collection of distinguishing signatures and attributes that can be used to provide and recover CoK of the cylinder contents. Reproducibility of these attributes is the key metric. IAEA UCVS: Signatures and Attributes For 235U NDA and NDA Seal Traditional 186-keV g U-235 concentration in outer UF6 Direct measure of U-235, but weakly penetrating Array of spectrometers axial distribution of U-235 Induced-fission neutrons U-235 Direct measure of U-235 For thermal interrogating neutrons, only outer layer of UF6 Neutrons from F-19 (a, n) U-234 U-234 is primary a emitter Neutron escape: ~0.80 full-volume Indirect measure of U-235 Indicator of feed type Neutron-induced g U-234 Iron as n g converter Fe-56 + n Fe-57 + g (7.63,7.65 MeV) Indirect neutron detection IAEA 2614-keV g U-232 “flag” Presence of U-232 reactor recycle feed Performance Metrics for Quantitative Assay Assay Enrichment (%) ~ ssys_cal ~ ssys_ran sNDA2 = sstat2 + ssys_cal2 + ssys_ran2 Declared Enrichment (%) 23 sstat IAEA Prediction: s sys_cal > sstat and ssys_ran Performance Metrics for NDA Seal Attribute ~ ssys_ran sseal2 = sstat2 + ssys_ran2 Number of Measurements on Same Cylinder 24 IAEA Prediction: ssys_ran can be small, so must minimize sstat OLEM Uncertainty Budget Product Material 3.0 Uncertainty Contribution (%) . 2.5 Pressure Temperature 186-keV: Deposit 186-keV: Gas Total E = 2.0% P = 10 Torr D = 1000 E = wt% 235U for gas, deposit P = gas pressure (Torr) D = deposit thickness (mg/cm2) 2.0 1.5 E = 5.0% P = 10 Torr D = 1000 OLEM target for sE E = 5.0% P = 10 Torr D = 100 1.0 E = 5.0% P = 50 Torr D = 1000 0.5 0.0 E = 2.0% P = 10 Torr D = 100 IAEA E = 5.0% P = 50 Torr D = 100 E = 2.0% P = 50 Torr D = 1000 E = 2.0% P = 50 Torr D = 100 *From Smith and Lebrun, IEEE Nuclear Science Symposium, 2011