Transcript Global measurements of atmospheric gases and aerosols Amazon Basin, 2008 -- 2009 Arctic Ocean measurements, 2009 -- 2011 Steven C.

Global measurements of atmospheric gases and aerosols
Amazon Basin, 2008 -- 2009
Arctic Ocean measurements, 2009 -- 2011
Steven C. Wofsy
and the Science Team of the
BARCA Program and the
HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations Program
Brooks Range, AK
Global environmental changes—in the “natural”
environment and the built environment—
represent some of the most powerful forces
that give rise to “extreme” or “sudden” events.
This lecture discusses changes in the chemical
composition of the atmosphere – what we
know about the past, and the present changes
that are unfolding.
The temperature of the earth has increased by 0.8 C since 1920
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
Paleoclimate data from Antarctic Ice Cores
The heavier temperature lines from 160,000 BP to present reflect more data points for this time
period, not necessarily greater temperature variability.
Climate and Atmospheric History of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok Ice Core, Antarctica, by Petit
J.R., Jouzel J., Raynaud D., Barkov N.I., Barnola J.M., Basile I., Bender M., Chappellaz J., Davis J. Delaygue
G., Delmotte M. Kotlyakov V.M., Legrand M., Lipenkov V.M., Lorius C., Pépin L., Ritz C., Saltzman E.,
Stievenard M., Nature, 3 June 1999.
CO2 change from the present, ppm
Changes in atmospheric composition:
“Greenhouse gases”, CO2
Time from present
1000’s of years
How are people changing the
global environment?
Atmospheric Methane Concentration
1500
1000
500
Atmospheric Methane Concentration (parts per billion)
1500
1000
500
Atmospheric methane
-150,000 -100,000 -50,000
Time before present (Years)
0
-4000 -3000 -2000 -1000
0
Time before present (Years)
Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate
Change – IPCC
Insert a news item showing that increasing numbers of the
public think "Climate Change" is a hoax, or too uncertain
to inform policy, etc.
Some questions about the global environment:
Q1. How quickly is the earth warming, and what are the
consequences ? (Not required to ask, and answer this
question: perfect knowledge of how much warming
might be attributed to human activities.)
Q2. Is aridity (dryness; Precipitation – Evaporation)
increasing in vulnerable places?
Q3. What climate changes are ongoing in the Arctic;
what is the response of sea level, and of “greenhouse”
gases (CO2, CH4)?
 Examples of recent studies of the Arctic environment
Changes in Sea
Level are linked to
climate through the
temperature of the
ocean and the
stranded ice on the
continents
Rate of Ice volume change:
All Greenland:
-238 km3/yr
South Greenland: -164
North Greenland: -65
73.250 N
-238 km3/yr = 0.5 mm/yr sea level rise
1. Arctic
1979
The Arctic
Ocean has
been covered
by floating ice
for all human
history…
…until
2007
What do these
changes mean for
climate, forests,
crops?
HIPPO platform: NCAR Gulfstream V "HIAPER"
GV launch in the rain, Anchorage, January, 2009 (HIPPO-1)
Flight Plan across the arctic ocean 60N to 82N, August 2011
41+ kft
28 kft
August, 2011
Photos: S.
Wofsy
UT
NN GGLAT
GGLON ALT m To C
74520 1467 75.04469 -161.5916 653.708 -4.736278
UT
NN GGLAT
GGLON ALT m To C
74640 1473 75.17651 -161.4241 257.740 -3.14
Photos from 19 Aug 2011
UT
NN GGLAT
GGLON ALT m To C
74580 1469 75.11114 -161.5076 403.508 -3.894623
UT
NN GGLAT
GGLON ALT m To C
77280 1481 78.70973 -156.4544 3854.904 -25.08
Photos: S.
Wofsy
Mist rising from very warm water 200km in the ocean
CH4 in the arctic atmosphere
GLOBAL METHANE SOURCES, Tg a-1 [IPCC, 2007]
Sink: oxidation by OH (lifetime of 10 years)
WETLANDS
100-230
BIOMASS
BURNING ANIMALS
80-90
10-90
LANDFILLS
40-70
GAS
50-70
TERMITES
20-30
RICE
30-110
COAL
30-50
HIPPO
CH4
Methane is being produced in the surface waters of the Arctic
Ocean, especially where the ice pack has broken up, and we see
this new emission in the atmosphere.
Relationships between tracers with distinct
sources: A tool for understanding large scale
sources and sinks of GHGs.
Slide from: E. A. Kort
1880 1890 1900
CH4
82N 15 April
2010
CH4:CO2
= .0085
78N 02 Nov. 2009
CO2
385
386
387
Photos: by; B. C. Daube
& J. V. Pittman
Summary: The Arctic
The data show:
•Dense pollution at both very high altitudes, and at low
levels, in the Arctic.
•Sources of CH4 in the Arctic from from the ocean
surface, significant compared to fossil fuel extraction
and land surface.
•Extensive loss of floating ice in the Arctic Ocean, and
melting of glacial ice on Greenland.
… and a lot more
Summary: Environmental Science and
Engineering, Global Change element
What people in this field are doing:
• Making measurements in the atmosphere, in the
sea, on land, and in the ecosystems of land an sea.
• Creating databases that can be accessed widely,
and constructing models to simulate natural systems.
• Analyzing and modeling these observations to
address questions important to science, and to society.
… and a lot more