Transcript Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones in India WMO International Workshop on Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones (IWSATC), Honolulu Hawaii, 13 – 16 April Suman Goyal , Satellite.

Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones in
India
WMO International Workshop
on Satellite Analysis of
Tropical Cyclones (IWSATC),
Honolulu Hawaii, 13 – 16 April
2011
Suman Goyal ,
Satellite Meteorology Division,
India Meteorological Department,
[email protected]
Presentation Layout
 Introduction
Satellite operations in India
Tropical Cyclone Analysis in India
Problems and prospects
Future Aspects
SOME FACTS ABOUT CYCLONES
 Out of 80 global annual number - four form over Bay of Bengal – two /
three intensify to severe ones
 Minimum No. of cyclones in a year - One (1949)
 Maximum No. of cyclones in a year –
Ten (1893,1926,1930,1976)
 Out of total disturbances -
35% intensify to Cyclones
16 % intensify to SCS
7% intensify to VSCS
 Peak activity – November followed by May
 Ratio of TCS between Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea – 4:1
 Year to year variation - Quite large
SOME FACTS ABOUT CYCLONES (Cont’d)
 Most vulnerable coast in the West Coast - South Gujarat coast.
 Most vulnerable coast in the East Coast - 24 paraganas of West Bengal
followed by Krishna & Nellore districts of AP.
 Life period of a Tropical Cyclone is 5-6 days. It will have hurricane
intensity for 2-4 days as against 6 days of global average.
 Life period of the longest lived Tropical Cyclone in Indian seas is 14
days
(2-15th Nov, 1886 & 16-29th Nov, 1964).
 Life period of the longest lived Hurricane Ginger over Atlantic is 31 days
during 1972.
 Size of a Tropical Cyclone over Indian seas is 50-100 km radius to
2000km radius with average of 3º to 5º (300 –600km).
Frequency of Cyclonic systems over north Indian
Ocean during 1891-2007
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
151
124
109
113
92
83
62
49
57
35
10
6 2
JAN
311
232
91317
FEB MAR APR
Depression
24
43
37
29
20
8
51
34
32
20
27
25
3
MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEP
Cyclonic Storms
59
OCT
Severe cyclonic storms
NOV DEC
INTRODUCTION
Introduction
 India has been quite active in satellite meteorology. First
Indian polar orbiting Satellite Aryabhatta was launched
on 19 April 1975 followed by two other Indian polar
orbiters, Bhaskar-1on 7th June 1979 and Bhaskar-2 on
20th
November 1981 were launched. The first
geostationary Indian Satellite with meteorological
payload INSAT-1A was launched on 10th April 1982 and
INSAT 1B on 30th August 1983 .
IR8507060300Z /1B
INSAT Series






INSAT -2A the indigenously built satellite launched by India
on July 1992.
India launched INSAT -1D on June 1990.
INSAT -2B launched by India on July 1993.
INSAT -2E the last satellite of the series was launched by
India on 26th May 1999.
KALPANA -1 Satellite was launched on September 2002 .
INSAT -3A launched on May 2003 by India.
Tropical Cyclone Analysis
(1960-1974)
Tropical cyclone analysis in delayed mode
started from 1960’s after the launch of TIROS-1
in 1960.
Tropical cyclone analysis in India on real time
started from 1963 onwards after the
establishment of APT service in Bombay
As the number of satellite increased and
Nephanalysis bulletins from USA and USSR
were also being received which improved the
Tropical Cyclone analysis in India.
Tropical Cyclone Analysis
(1960-1974) Contd……
 Pre Dvorak era (before 1975), Intensity
was approximated by seeing the intensity
and size of cloud pattern appearance of
storm’s eye, its banding etc..
Tropical Cyclone Analysis
(1975-1982)
Systematic method started from 1975
onwards on real time after the formulation
of Dvorak technique which gained
widespread acceptance
 Initially Dvorak technique was based on
pattern matching concepts and only
visible imageries were used for analyzing
the tropical systems.
Earliest Satellite Records
 By using this technique, post-mortem
studies were done for the cyclones for
the period 1967-1971 by using pictures
from the satellites ESSA-3, ESSA-9,
ITOS-1 And NIMBUS-3 (D.K.Mishra,
Hemraj, 1974)
Conclusions from these studies were
quite different than those by Dvorak. It
may
be
because
of
lack
of
measurement techniques.
Synoptic
Description
Wind speed Cyclone
(kt) attributed intensity in
to synoptic terms of T.No.
feature
Wind Speed
(kt) obtained
from Dvorak’s
technique
Depresssion
(including
deep
depression)
17-33
T1.5-3.5
25-30
Cyclonic
storm
34-47
T4.0-4.5
60-75
Severe
cyclonic
storm
48 onwards
T5.0 and
above
85 kt and
above
Inter Agency Difference in Position and Intensity of the Vortex
Example : GIRI over Bay of Bengal
During 20-22Oct, 2010
Date
Time
(UTC)
Position
(Lat / Long)
Intensity
20-10-2010
0600
16.5/91.5
T1.0
0900
17.0/ 91.5
T1.0
1200
17.5/ 91.5
T1.5
1700
17.5/ 91.5
T1.5
2100
21-10-2010
0300
17.5/ 91.5
T2.0
0600
17.5/ 91.5
T2.5
1100
17.6/ 91.8
T3.0
1500
T3.0
1700
18.0/ 92.2
T3.0
2100
18.2/ 92.4
T3.5
Center(SS
D-NOAA)
SSDNOAA
17.3/91.4
T2.0
17.4/91.9
T2.5
17.6/91.4
T3.0
T3.0
17.9/92.3
T4.0
18.3/92.3
T4.5
JTWC
Date
Time
(UTC)
Position
(Lat / Long)
Intensity
22-10-2010
0000
18.5/ 92.6
T3.5
0100
18.5/ 92.6
T4.0
0300
18.8/ 92.8
T4.5
0600
19.0/ 93.0
T5.0
0900
19.2/ 93.1
T5.5
1200
19.9/ 93.3
T5.5
1400
20.1/93.3
Overland
Center(SS
D-NOAA)
SSD- JTWC
NOAA
T5.0
18.6/92.8
T6.0
19.4/93.2
T6.5
T6.0
T7.0
JTWC Bulletin of GIRI
Very Severe Cyclone GIRI
22 Oct 2010 0900 UTC
This distance is : 0.35° deg
Pattern: Eye
Embedded Distance=0.35
Eno= 3.5
EAdj= 0
CF= Eno + EAdj =3.5
BF= 2.0
DT=CF+BF=5.5
Other Inter Agency Differences
 Some times systems were tracked by India
Meteorological Department, but not by SSD
NOAA and vice versa.
SSD NOAA is normally giving higher intensity at
2100 UTC as compared to IMD
Weaker Systems
In weaker system center determination is
difficult .In such cases Scatterometric
winds from Oceansat 2 and Microwave
imageries are helpful . Some times
multiple centers are also seen in the
satellite imageries.
Parameter
Oceansat-II
QuikSCAT
Frequency
13.515 GHz
13.4 GHz
Wind speed range
4 to 24 m/s
3 to 20 m/s
Wind speed Accuracy
Better than 20% (RMS)
2 m/s
Wind direction Accuracy
20º (RMS)
20º
Resolution
50 X 50 km
25 km
Swath
1820 km
1800 km
20 October,2010 around 0300 UTC
Limitations
Rapidly intensifying systems Dvorak
technique fails.
According to Dvorak Final T no. limits <
T4 change of half over 6 hours
>T4 change of 1 over 6 hours
Example : Tropical Cyclone “GIRI” from
20 to 22 Oct 2010. Maximum Intensity
reached 5.5
Local variations to Dvorak (1984)
T.No./C.I No.
T1.0
T1.5
T2.0
T2.5
T3.0
T3.5
T4.0
T4.5
T5.0
T5.5
T6.0
T6.5
T7.0
T7.5
T8.0
Wind Speed in Knots (Atlantic)
25
25
30
35
45
55
65
77
90
102
115
127
140
155
170
Wind Speed in Knots (IMD)
<17
25
30
35
45
55
65
77
90
102
115
127
140
155
170
Limitation in Dvorak technique
The technique is subjective and there are
systematic variations between analysts
but they are being sorted out by mutual
discussions.
Microwave imageries can be accessed
through cyclone module of SYNERGIE
and are helpful for centre determination.
Relation between Final intensity
estimate and CI number
The CI is same as the final intensity for
developing cloud patterns.
The CI differs from the final T-number for
most weakening patterns, and also when
redevelopment is indicated.
satellite imagery, use of Mcidas or similar)
For weakening cyclone CI is same for 12
hours, then hold CI ½ or 1 higher than T
number as storm weakens.
Objective analysis of tropical
cyclones
In October 2009 ADT version 7.2.2 was
installed in IMD with the help of SAC
Ahmedabad.
As an example some results are shown:
SATMET
SSD-NOAA
ADT-SAC
CIMSS-ADT
SAC-ADT-CIMSS-CENTER
SAC-ADT-CIMSS-T25
SAC-ADT-SATMET-29APR
SAC-ADT-SATMET_T25
25-05-2009 08
25-05-2009 06
25-05-2009 04
25-05-2009 02
25-05-2009 00
24-05-2009 22
24-05-2009 20
24-05-2009 18
24-05-2009 16
24-05-2009 14
24-05-2009 12
24-05-2009 10
24-05-2009 08
24-05-2009 06
24-05-2009 04
24-05-2009 00
23-05-2009 18
23-05-2009 12
23-05-2009 06
23-05-2009 00
22-05-2009 18
22-05-2009 12
22-05-2009 06
22-05-2009 00
21-05-2009 18
21-05-2009 12
21-05-2009 03
4.5
AILA-May2009
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
SATMET
SAC-ADT
CIMSS-ADT
SAC-ADT-CIMSS-CENTER
17-04-2009 21
17-04-2009 15
17-04-2009 11
17-04-2009 09
17-04-2009 06
17-04-2009 04
17-04-2009 02
17-04-2009 00
16-04-2009 22
16-04-2009 17
16-04-2009 15
16-04-2009 13
16-04-2009 11
16-04-2009 09
16-04-2009 07
16-04-2009 05
16-04-2009 03
16-04-2009 01
15-04-2009 23
15-04-2009 21
15-04-2009 16
15-04-2009 13
15-04-2009 11
15-04-2009 09
15-04-2009 07
15-04-2009 03
14-04-2009 21
14-04-2009 15
14-04-2009 09
14-04-2009 03
13-04-2009 21
13-04-2009 15
13-04-2009 09
13-04-2009 03
4
Bijli-Apr2009
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
SAC-ADT-SATMET-T20
201010192100
201010200300
201010200600
201010200900
201010201200
201010201500
201010201800
201010202100
201010210000
201010210300
201010210400
201010210500
201010210600
201010210700
201010210800
201010210900
201010211000
201010211100
201010211200
201010211400
201010211500
201010211700
201010211800
201010211900
201010212000
201010212100
201010212200
201010212300
201010220000
201010220100
201010220200
201010220300
201010220400
201010220500
201010220600
201010220700
201010220800
201010220900
201010221000
201010221100
201010221200
201010221300
Intensity
Giri Oct-2010
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
SATMET-MANUAL
SATMET-ADT
SSD-NOAA
CIMSS-ADT
CI Pressure-wind relationship is not
changed . It is continuing since 1976.
Mishra & Gupta formula :
Vm = 14.2√∂p, where ∂P is Po – Pc
(Pressure in outermost isobar – central
pressure)
Wind pressure relationship with Intensity
T.No.
dP ( hPa)
Wind Speed (knots)
T2.0
4.5
30
T2.5
6.1
35
T3.0
10.0
45
T3.5
15.0
55
T4.0
20.9
65
T4.5
29.4
77
T5.0
40.2
90
T5.5
51.6
102
T6.0
65.6
115
T6.5
80.0
127
T7.0
97.2
140
T7.5
119.1
155
T8.0
143.3
170
Criteria for best track record
Systems from T1.5 (Depression) onwards
are entered in best track records but if
Satellite Division declares T1.5 but
Synoptic Division do not declares as
Depression than it is not entered in best
track.
SATELLITE BULLETIN
DATED: 22/10/2010
TIME: 0300UTC
TCIN50 DEMS 220300
SATELLITE BLLETIN BASED ON INSAT PIC OF 220300 UTC (.)
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY: EQ TO 40.0N LONG 60.0E TO 100.0E (.)
SALIENT FEATURE: VORTEX OVER EC ADJ NE BAY FURTHER INTENSIFIED AND NOW CENTRED AT 18.9N/92.9E (.)
INTENSITY T5.0 REPEAT INTENSITY T5.0 (.) EYE VISIBLE (.) METEOSAT WINDS SHOWS WIND SHEAR
IS BET 5 TO 10 KTS AND WIND SHEAR TENDENCY IS BET -10 TO –20 KTS SHOWS FURTHER
CHANCES OF INTENCIFICATION (.) ASSTD BKN TO SOLID INT TO V INT CONVTN (CTT MINUS 81 DEG
C) OVER BAY BET LAT 16.0N TO 21.0N EAST OF LONG 90.0E ARAKAN COT ADJ MYANMAR (.)
BKN M/LAYERED CLOUDS OVER J&K ADJ PAK N HP EXT N PJB AND OVER AREA BET LAT 36.0N TO
47.0N LONG 74.0E TO 87.0E IN ASSW WD OVER THE AREA (.)
NORTH: SCT LOW/MED CLOUDS OVER REST PJB REST HP N UTRKND E UP ADJ W UP AND ISOL OVER W
HARY (.)
EAST: BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD MOD TO INT CONVTN OVER S ASSAM AND E BD (.) BKN
LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD ISOL WK TO MOD CONVTN OVER REST PARTS OF THE REGIONAND
BHUTAN EXCEPT SCT LOW/MED CLOUDS OVER BHR (.)
WEST: BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD ISOL WK TO MOD CONVTN OVER SE MP S M MAHA S KKN &
GOA (.) SCT LOW/MED CLOUDS OVER REST MP REST MAHA N RAJ AND S GUJ (.)
SOUTH: BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD MOD TO INT CONVTN OVER E TLNGN RYLSM ADJ NIK COTL
KRNTK ANDAMAN IDS AND LKSWDP (.) BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD ISOL WK TO MOD
CONVTN OVER REST PARTS OF THE REGION EXCEPT SCT LOW/MED CLOUDS OVER S TN (.)
Continue….
BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA: SCT LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD MOD TO INT CONVTN OVER REST EC
BAY SW BAY AND WK TO MOD CONVTN OVER REST BAY ANDAMAN SEA
GULF OF MARTABAN (.)
ARABIAN SEA: BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD MOD TO INT CONVTN OVER ARSEA
BET LAT 9.5N TO 18.0N EAST OF LONG 67.0E (.) SCT LOW/MED CLOUDS
WITH EMBDD ISOL WK CONVTN OVER REST S ARSEA (.)
OUTSIDE INDIA: BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD MOD TO INT CONVTN OVER N
SUMATRA STR OF MALACCA AND OVER INDIAN OCEAN BET EQ TO 5.0N
EAST OF LONG 90.0E (.)
BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD ISOL WK TO MOD CONVTN OVER E
TIBET ADJ CHINA REST MYANMAR ADJ THAILAND (.)
TOO: 22/0940EF=
TCIN51 DEMS 220300
INTENSE PRECIPITATION ADVISORY BASED ON INSAT PIC OF 220300 UTC (.)
SCT INT PPTN LIKELY OVER J&K HP N PJB LKSWDP AP AND ISOL OVER
KRNTK DURING NEXT SIX HOURS (.)
TOO: 22/0942EF=
SPECIAL SATELLITE BULLETIN
DATE: 22-10-2010
TIME: 0400 UTC
TCIN50 DEMS 220400
SPL SAT BLTN BASED ON INSAT PIC OF 220400 UTC (.)
VORTEX OVER EC ADJ NE BAY CENTRED AT 18.8N/92.8E (.)
INTENSITY T4.5 (.) EYE VISIBLE (.) METEOSAT WINDS SHOWS WIND
SHEAR IS BET 5 TO 10 KTS AND WIND SHEAR TENDENCY IS BET -10
TO –20 KTS SHOWS FURTHER CHANCES OF INTIFICATION (.) ASSTD
BKN TO SOLID INT TO V INT CONVTN (CTT MINUS 81 DEG C) OVER
BAY BET LAT 16.0N TO 21.0N EAST OF LONG 90.0E ARAKAN COT ADJ
MYANMAR (.)
TOO: 22/1015EF=
Future Prospects
 INSAT-3D Satellite Scheduled to be
launched in the 3rd quarter of 2011
 Payloads
 It has a 6-channel Imager almost similar
to GOES satellites of USA .
 It has a 19 –channel Sounder similar to
GOES satellites.
 It has a Data Relay Transponder (DRT)
similar to Kalpana-1 and INSAT-3A.
INSAT 3D Derived Products
No.
Parameters
Input
Channels
No.
Parameters
Input
Channels
1.
Outgoing Long wave
Radiation (OLR)
TIR -1, TIR -2,
WV
10.
Water Vapor Wind
(WVW)
WV, TIR -1, TIR -2
2.
Quantitative Precipitation
Estimation ( QPE)
TIR -1, TIR -2,
WV
11.
Upper Tropospheric
Humidity (UTH)
WV, TIR -1, TIR -2
3.
Sea Surface
Temperature (SST)
SWIR,TIR -1, TIR
-2, MIR
12.
Temperature, Humidity
profile & Total ozone
Sounder all channels
4.
Snow Cover
VIS, SWIR, TIR 1, TIR -2
13.
Value added parameters
from sounder products
Sounder products
5.
Snow Depth
VIS, SWIR, TIR 1, TIR -2
14.
FOG
SWIR, MIR , TIR -1,
TIR -2
6.
Fire
MIR, TIR -1
15.
Normalized Difference
Vegetation Index
CCD
7.
Smoke
VIS, TIR -1,
2, MIR
16.
Flash Flood Analyzer
TIR -1, TIR -2, VIS
8.
Aerosol
VIS, TIR -1, TIR -2
17.
HSCAS
VIS
9.
Cloud Motion Vector
(CMV)
VIS, TIR -1, TIR -2
18.
Tropical Cycloneintensity /position
AODT technique,TIR1,TIR-2
TIR -
Megha-Tropiques mission of
ISRO: Polar orbiting
1. To be launched in 2011
2. It shall have the following payloads
a) Microwave Analysis and Detection of Rain and
Atmospheric Structures(MADRAS), with five channels
of microwave for estimation of atmospheric water
parameters in the equatorial belt.
b)
SAPHIR microwave humidity sounder and
radiometer of 6 channels for humidity profile.
c) SCARAB-broadband radiation measurement for
measurement of Radiation fluxes.
Channel of MADRAS & their related
mission objectives
Channel No. Frequency
Polarization
Spatial Resolution
Mission
M1
18.7 GHz
H+V
40 Km
Rain & wind
speed over
Oceans
M2
23.8 GHz
V
40 Km
Integrated
Water Vapor
M3
36.5 GHz
H+5
40 Km
Liquid water in
cloud, rain
above sea
M4
89.0 GHz
H+V
10 Km
Convective
rain areas over
land and sea
M5
157.0 GHz
H+V
6 Km
Ice at Cloud
top
Buoys Network
Government of India has established a National Data Buoy Programme
(NDBP) at National Institute of Ocean Technology (NIOT), Chennai.
Under this programme, twelve moored data buoys have been deployed
from August’97 to February ’98 at a sea depth of 20m to 4500m and
spread over Bay of Bengal and Arabian sea. Since 2002, the number has
increased to 25
Cyclones over North Indian Ocean