Transcript Critical datasets & potential new tools for detection of climate impact on the water cycle Dr Stuart Minchin CSIRO.

Critical datasets & potential new tools for
detection of climate impact on the water cycle
Dr Stuart Minchin
CSIRO
Outline
• Water as an integrator and amplifier of climate
change signals
• The attribution challenge
• Candidates for measureable signal and new
technologies for measurement
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CO2 Enrichment
Seasonality shifts
Groundwater and storage
Soil moisture and vegetation trends
Rainfall intensity and atmospheric fluxes
• New approaches to communication of climate/water
links
• Common threads
Water as an integrator and amplifier of climate
change signals
Minimal variations and errors in rainfall and ET
estimation accumulate in ground and surface water
resource assessment
• Streamflow is ~9% of rainfall nation-wide (30 mm/y)
• Groundwater recharge <2% of rainfall nation-wide (6
mm/y)
• A 10 mm/y change in streamflow can be considered
pretty significant in most systems..
• Any change in rainfall is amplified 2 or 3 times in
streamflow
• Water resources generation and use is very localised
• The actual resource is only very partially gauged thus
needs to be estimated from sparse obs and indirect
information
source: Australian Water Resources 2005
Keywords: Accuracy, Interpolation, Estimation
Percent difference in rainfall and runoff
The Attribution challenge
Drying & Warming Climate
Growing Urban Demand
Over-allocation to Irrigation
The big
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Uncapped Groundwater Extraction
water scarcity factors
Expanding Plantations
Bushfire Recovery Impacts
Expanding Farm Dams
The Environmental Flows Imperative
River water resources (MDBSY)
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Streamflow gauging stations
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Rainfall stations
Legend
Reporting region
Perennial watercourse
Major ephemeral watercourse
Legend
Perennial lakes and storages
Net water balance
Irrigation area
High : 1000 mm/y
Ephemeral wetlands
Reporting region
Low : -1000 mm/y
±
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Kilometres
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±
500
Legend
Reporting region
Warrego
Accounting reach
1
Contributing catchment
Condamine-Balonne
7
Not included
9b
Paroo
5
Moonie
4
13
Reach with number
1
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8
9a
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Accounting gauge
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1
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MacquarieCastlereagh
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24a
1
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3
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29
Eastern
Mt Lofty
Ranges
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12
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1
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9
15a & 15b
9a & 9b
12
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6
3
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LoddonAvoca Campaspe
2
5
3
7
3
2
1
4
6
16
18
Wimmera
2
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17
13
5
Bringing together different data types
• Gauging data
• Classification
• Water use estimates
• River network information
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Border Rivers
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Research by Mac Kirby, Albert van Dijk and many others
0
Kilometres
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500
The Attribution challenge is a two way problem
Murray Darling Basin:
Modelling climate impacts
the challenge of mega-data
Murray Darling Basin Sustainable Yields Project
4 IPCC Scenarios
5 km Gridded Rainfall/Runoff
4 Land Use scenarios
Model 1
Stochastic Rainfall
generation 150 y
Model 2 Model 3
Model 15 Model 16
Model 70
Security of supply for every
demand node in river basin under
all 16 scenarios over 150 years
Surface and groundwater models used in the 18
MDB reporting regions
Warrego IQQM
Nebine IQQM
Paroo IQQM
Lower Balonne IQQM
St George SGCS13NT
Barwon-Darling IQQM
Middle Condamine IQQM
Condamine MODFLOW
Menindee IQQM
Bidgee IQQM
Lower Bidgee
MODFLOW
Murray BigMod
Murray MSM
Eastern Mt Lofty Ranges
6*WATERCRESS
Southern Riverine
Plains MODFLOW
Wimmera REALM
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Avoca REALM
GSM REALM
Ovens REALM Mid Bidgee MODFLOW
Upper Condamine IQQM
Border Rivers MODFLOW
Border Rivers IQQM
Moonie IQQM
Lower Gwydir MODFLOW
Gwydir IQQM
Upper Namoi MODFLOW
Peel IQQM
Namoi IQQM
Lower Namoi MODFLOW
Macq-Castlereagh 6*IQQM
Macquarie MODFLOW
Lachlan IQQM
Mid-Lachlan MODFLOW
Lower Lachlan MODFLOW
Snowy SIM_V9
ACTEW REALM
Upper Bidgee IQQM
Lessons from this modelling effort
•Transparency
•Auditability
•Provenance and archiving
•Court challenges
In the challenging world of terabyte data
Candidates for Measurable
Climate Change Signal in
the Water Cycle?
CO2 Enrichment effects on water cycle
• More CO2, better photosynthetic efficiency
• Some early projections of higher stream flow due to
stomata response in energy limited environments
• Much debate about whether observed increases in
runoff in some areas are evidence of this
• Some emerging evidence of increased Vegetation
vigour in water limited environments (much of
Australia), consistent with CO2 enrichment prediction
• There is a clear role here for continental scale
observation of possible CO2 enrichment effects using
a combination of RS and in-situ measurement
Potential tools:
Requires long time-series of consistent
remote sensing and stream gauging data
Also need ability to correct for local
anthropogenic effects (land use, water use,
etc)
DA-09-03a GlobalLandCover
Shifts in seasonality of rainfall
• Seasonality shifts predicted due to Climate Change
• Impacts of seasonal shifts on water cycle can be
enormous (SE Australia an example)
• Can be quite spatially variable
BUT
• Perhaps amenable to low tech
measurement?
• Date and spatial info perhaps more
valuable than precise volume measurement?
• A role for crowdsourcing, citizen science or community
monitoring efforts in developed and developing world?
Groundwater and Soil moisture measurement
• Traditionally harder to measure than surface water
• Hugely important water sources with often long
residence times (meaning trends in recharge can take
a long time to see in the water supply)
• With surface water drought, reliance on Groundwater
grows
• There are a number of new techniques available to us
for measurement of these factors, but all come with
constraints.
• Our best chance is combining these observation
sources with models to account for partitioning in the
water cycle
New tools for Groundwater and Soil Moisture
• GRACE: Great potential but very low resolution.
Integrates deep groundwater, surface water, soil
moisture and reservoir storage. Very useful for
constraining modelling outcomes
• SMOS/SMAP- Both~ 35km resolution 3 day revisit.
Direct measure of soil moisture but only surface layer.
• Cosmic Ray Soil moisture probes- Integrates soil
moisture across medium footprint. Low power
requirement, still relatively expensive
• Time-series vegetation trends from space: integrates
across root zone, CO2 enrichment issue. Large
archive already potentially available.
Independent calibration of continental ET
Additional constraints on the water balance are
needed to improve accounting
GRACE: measures regional, monthly changes in the
mass of the earth (i.e. mainly water storage).
Agrees well with model water balance estimates (for
the whole MDB).
But how does it verify ET?
100
Gravity anomaly (cm)
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0
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-100
Estimated water storage anomaly
(mm)
-150
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-10
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Research by Albert van Dijk, Luigi Renzullo and others
2007
Water storage anomaly (mm)
2
GRACE ensemble anomaly (mm)
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y = 0.0402x - 2.3497
R2 = 0.7231
-2
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-6
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-150
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If ET is out we see a bias in storage
2
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Estimated water storage anomaly (mm)
same but 10% lower ET
-8
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-150
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R2 (waterbalance-GRACE)
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0.1
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0.95
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AET scaling factor
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2
3
Therefore can also be used as a
global constraint in calibration over
large scales
4
Gravity anomaly (cm)
It turns out to be a valuable new test
of credibility and bias in ET
estimates over large scales!
SMOS/SMAP- Soil Moisture from space
• Early results from SMOS
promising
• Numerous CAL-VAL efforts
underway
• Continuity may be an issue
• Images: ESA and NASA
Cosmic Ray Probes
Time series vegetation trends for soil moisture
Mobile phones for rainfall intensity and flux
measurements
Mobile rainfall intensity
• Uses degradation in mobile
phone signal
• Potential for huge
international network of
rainfall intensity data
Flux tower packages
• Cheap sensor packages for
deployment on Mobile phone
towers?
• Potentially huge network for
flux measurement
Both need cooperation with
mobile phone companies in the
private sector
http://www.eawag.ch/medien/bulletin/20100126/index_EN
The need for
communication and
visualisation innovation?
Google Earth: 4d water visualisation potential
Visualisation of climate risk
Winning the communication war
# 076424868
076424868# 076424868
Catchment detox
Common Threads?
Common Threads?
• Water is a challenging domain for climate science
• Need to combine models, space and in-situ
observations to achieve anything in the water domain
• Advantages of amplification but many confounding
influences cause attribution issues
• Standard of evidence more critical (cred.\court action).
• Lots of potential for new tools but continuity and
historical availability a general issue for most.
• Nevertheless a multiple lines of evidence approach
and the use of combined observation/modelling
systems has promise
• Critical that high level impacts are translated and
communicated effectively to the local/regional scale
CSIRO Land and Water
Dr. Stuart Minchin
Research Director,
Environmental Sensing,
Prediction and Reporting
Phone: 02 62465790
Email: [email protected]
Web: www.csiro.au/clw
Thank you
Contact Us
Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176
Email: [email protected] Web: www.csiro.au