Transcript Model error diagnosis: One possible contribution of the PDP community to the THORPEX goals Thomas Jung1,2 & members of the THORPEX PDP.

Model error diagnosis: One possible contribution
of the PDP community to the THORPEX goals
Thomas Jung1,2 & members of the THORPEX PDP and WGNE & Mark Rodwell
1European
Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
2Alfred-Wegener-Institute
for Polar and Marine Research (AWI)
Outline
 Model error diagnosis
 Activities following the PDP/WGNE Workshop on
"Diagnosis of Model Errors“
 Extratropical cyclone diagnostics
 Hand-over to Mark Rodwell
What is model error diagnosis?
 Research that aims at understanding model errors at the
process level
 Research that aids model development
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What is going wrong (descriptive)?
Which regions are crucial (for certain errors)?
Which processes are crucial?
What is going wrong and how could this be improved?
 Development of diagnostic techniques
Advise model developers
Work together with model developers
The PDP-WGNE workshop
Workshop report available from the THORPEX website!
Actions: „Model error diagnosis“ workshop
 Start joint project on the Indian Summer Monsoon
• Build on collaboration between ECMWF and UK Met Office
• Discuss ongoing research in mailing group
• Report progress in future meetings
 Start joint project on Cyclonic systems
• Work on refining existing techniques to understand CS
• Give presentation entitled Diagnosis of Cyclonic Systems at the
cylone workshop in Monterey
 Both projects
• Should consider NWP and climate models
• Benefit from Transpose AMIP activities
• Develop proposals that can be put forward to WGNE
Actions: „Model error diagnosis“ workshop
 Report workshop results in upcoming meetings
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26th session of WGNE (Dave Burride)
Cyclone workshop in Monterey (no presentation)
AWI/IUP block seminar (T. Jung, model error diagnosis)
EGU Vienna 2011 (T. Jung, Relaxation diagnostics in seasonal
forecasting)
• THORPEX European regional meeting (T. Jung, model error
diagnosis)
• WWRP-JSC meeting in late winter 2011 (Mark Rodwell?)
 Publish workshop report in BAMS
• Chris Capella from BAMS has been contacted
• First response (although late) was positive
• Later Chris became concerned given that the workshop report
has been published
• Chris wanted to tallk to editors (no response yet)
Impact: New convection scheme
Jung et al. (2010), QJRMS
Extratropical cyclone composites
 Short-range forecasts (old
and new convection)
 ERA-Interim period
 Archiving of tendencies
 Selection of 100 most
intense winter storms
 Compositing
Z850
Mean 6-hr wind-tend 925hPa
VDiff
Dynamics
Convection
Hodges and Jung, work in progress
Extratropical cyclone composites: New-old
Z850
6-hr T-Tend Diff Conv 700hPa
Z500 Diff
6-hr T-Tend Diff Cloud 700hPa
Convection
Diagnosis of cyclonic systems
 Work on producing extratropical cyclone composites for
simulated physical processes has started.
 Composites for mean analysis increments have been
produced (interpretation does not seem straightforward
→ collaboration with Mark Rodwell)
 Produce composites for other quanitities
 Ensemble spread (see also work by Simon Lang)
 Observation usage
 Considerable progress possible
Handover to Mark Rodwell
Thank you!