Transcript Violence Goes to College: Detecting and Preventing Avenger Violence WEBINAR John Nicoletti, Ph.D. Nicoletti-Flater Associates 303-989-1617 www.n-fa.com Facebook: Nicoletti-Flater Associates 11/7/2015 © Nicoletti-Flater Associates.

Violence Goes to College:
Detecting and Preventing
Avenger Violence
WEBINAR
John Nicoletti, Ph.D.
Nicoletti-Flater Associates
303-989-1617
www.n-fa.com
Facebook: Nicoletti-Flater Associates
11/7/2015
© Nicoletti-Flater Associates
PHASE I
DETECTION,
BEHAVIORAL CODING,
and DISRUPTING
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UNDERSTANDING
VIOLENCE
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CAMPUS RELATED
VIOLENT INCIDENTS
(September 2006 – Present)
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RECENT VIOLENCE INCIDENTS
Columbus, Ohio, March 9, 2010: A 51-year-old
custodial employee who received a bad job
evaluation came to the university campus with
two handguns in a backpack and shot two coworkers, killing one and wounding the other,
before fatally shooting himself.
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RECENT VIOLENCE INCIDENTS
Tacoma, Washington, February 26, 2010: A 30year-old gunman with an infatuation with a
Tacoma special education teacher lay in wait and
fatally shot the woman as she arrived for school.
Police later fatally shot the gunman after a chase
and confrontation about 10 miles away. The
teacher had referred to the gunman as a “stalker”
and had a restraining order against him.
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RECENT VIOLENCE INCIDENTS
Litttleton, Colorado, February 23, 2010: A 32year-old man signed in at the reception desk @
noon at a junior high school, approximately three
miles from Columbine High School, saying he was
a former student. It was unclear when he left
the building but at about three p.m., he opened
fire in the parking lot of the school, injuring two
teenagers. He was tackled by a math teacher,
who said they had gone through extensive
emergency drills after Columbine.
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RECENT VIOLENCE INCIDENTS
Louisville, Kentucky, February 12, 2010: An 18year-old man was arrested for allegedly shooting
a 16-year-old girl and a 19-year-old woman at a
high school homecoming basketball game. Days
prior to the shooting students had informed the
school’s principal about Facebook posts saying
there was going to be a fight at the game.
Neither victim was an intended target. School
officials have now doubled up on security.
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RECENT VIOLENCE INCIDENTS
Huntsville, Alabama, February 12, 2010: A 40something female biology professor was
charged with murder at the University of
Alabama’s Huntsville campus. She allegedly
opened fire during an afternoon faculty
meeting, killing three and injuring three other
faculty members. The shooter had apparently
been denied tenure and a subsequent appeal
had also been denied, meaning she would be
out of a job after the current semester.
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RECENT VIOLENCE INCIDENTS
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New Haven, Connecticut, September 15, 2009: A
24-year-old male animal lab technician was
charged with the asphyxiation death of a female
Yale graduate student. They found her body
hidden in a wall in the basement of a university
research building on what would have been her
wedding day. Co-workers told police that the
technician was a "control freak" who viewed the
laboratory and its mice as his territory who would
get angry if lab workers did not wear shoe covers.
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RECENT VIOLENCE INCIDENTS
Langston, Oklahoma, August 16,
2009: Five people were shot and
wounded and five suspects taken into
custody at a back to school party
allowing off-campus students. The
shooters and victims were not students
at the school. The shootings took place
in a campus parking lot at the end of the
party.
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RECENT VIOLENCE INCIDENTS
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Cambridge, Massachusetts, May 19, 2009: A
21-year-old man was shot and killed outside a
Harvard University dormitory on May 19.
According to new reports, drugs and money
were tied to the motive for the alleged
murder. The victim had been selling drugs to
students at Harvard. Three men allegedly had
planned to rob him of his marijuana and
money while he was at campus making a
transaction.
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RECENT VIOLENCE INCIDENTS
Middletown, Connecticut, May 6,
2009: A 29-year-old gunman wearing a
wig shot and killed a Wesleyan
University student while she worked at a
bookstore near campus. Police found a
journal in which the shooter had written,
"I think it okay to kill Jews and go on a
killing spree" and "Kill Johanna. She
must Die." The gunman gave himself up
after seeing his picture in the paper.
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RECENT VIOLENCE INCIDENTS
Baku, Azerbaijan, April 30, 2009: A 29year-old gunman climbed from the first
floor to the sixth at a university firing on
teachers and students, mostly in the
head. Twelve were killed and 13 more
wounded, before the shooter took his
own life. No motive was known. The
shooter was described as a “loner” who
had a recent falling out with his father.
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RECENT VIOLENCE INCIDENTS
Athens, Georgia, April 25, 2009: A 57year-old college professor was being
sought in the fatal shootings of his exwife and two men outside a theater near
the University of Georgia campus. He
had reported argued with one of the
victims earlier and returned with guns
and opened fire.
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RECENT VIOLENCE INCIDENTS
Dearborn, Michigan, April 3, 2009: A
murder/ suicide at a local campus
occurred as a 28-year-old male snuck in
a crudely shortened shotgun, killed a
fellow student, and then turned the gun
on himself. The shooter was notorious
on the Internet, drawing condemnation
for videos on You Tube denigrating black
women and atheists.
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RECENT VIOLENCE INCIDENTS
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Conway, Arkansas, October 26, 2008: Four
men, ages 19-20, shot and killed two
students and wounded a third person. The
men appear to have driven up on a group of
students near a dormitory at the University of
Central Arkansas and fired at least eight
rounds from a semiautomatic pistol. Police
believe the victims were not the intended
targets but rather innocent bystanders.
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RECENT VIOLENCE INCIDENTS
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Dekalb, Illinois, February 14, 2008: A
27-year-old former student opened fire
in a lecture hall at Northern Illinois
University, killing six and injuring at
least 15 others, before killing himself.
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RECENT VIOLENCE INCIDENTS
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Blacksburg, Virginia, April 16, 2007: A
23-year-old senior at Virginia Tech shot
and killed 32 students and faculty at the
Virginia Tech campus, before turning
the gun on himself as police closed in.
It was the deadliest mass shooting in
modern U.S. history.
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RECENT VIOLENCE INCIDENTS
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Dawson College, Montreal, Canada,
September 13, 2006: 25-year-old male,
calling himself “The Angel of Death” on
a Goth subculture website, kills one and
injures 19 others during a shooting
spree before being shot and killed by
police.
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CAMPUS RELATED VIOLENT
INCIDENTS = 16
Number Killed Number Injured -
71
61
Perpetrators:
Professors 2
Students 4
Other (non-campus) 10
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Threats come from two
categories of perpetrators:
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BASIC CATEGORIES
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Insider
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Outsider
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There are two timelines in
violence.
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TWO KEY TIME
CONSIDERATIONS
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Event Threshold
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Event Horizon
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The probability of a violent
incident from an insider
should be low.
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Avengers always have a
progression.
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DEVELOPMENT OF AN AVENGER
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Perceived Injustice
Feeling Victimized
Externalization of Responsibility
Development of a Grudge
Obsessed with Avenging
Avenging Action
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Phases of action and campus
responsibilities:
Prevention
Interruption/Disruption
Responding
Neutralization
Aftermath
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Avengers always tell you
ahead of time.
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The difference between a
tragedy and a success story is
that somebody took the
“broadcasting” seriously.
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How Do They Broadcast It?
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Threats (may be verbal or written)
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Direct
Veiled
Conditional
Videos
New Technologies
 Web Pages  Text
Messaging  My Space
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Other Behavioral Indicators
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BEHAVIORAL CODING OPTIONS:
* Normal Behaviors
* Boundary Probing Behaviors
* Attack Related Behaviors
- Desensitization Behaviors
In Vivo
Virtual
- Dehumanization Behaviors
In Vivo
Virtual
- Skill Set Building
- Development of an Armament Inventory
- Development of an Attack Plan
* Attack Behaviors
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Coding the Behavioral Broadcast
(skip the “tea leaf reading”)
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Normal behaviors must be defined
according to:
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The specific environment
The individual
Boundary Probing:
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Pushing tolerance levels
To determine how much they can get away
with.
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IMPORTANT ISSUE
If the school or campus
allows a boundary probe
to occur without a
disrupter, then by default
that behavior becomes
normal.
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Reasons for Not Disrupting
the Behavior
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Unilateral Risk Assessment
Inserting ‘JUST’ in the behavioral description
Applying ‘Extinction Theory’ to violence
Over-reliance on Risk Assessment Instruments
instead of Behavioral Observations and Data
Monitoring
Afraid to do anything because they might “set the
person off”
Assuming that the potential perpetrator is getting
help because he/she is in counseling
Afraid of law suit or other legal action.
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REASONS FOR OVERREACTING OR
IDENTIFYING A FALSE POSITIVE
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Focusing on ‘WHO’ instead of ‘WHAT’
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Loner
Odd
Mentally Ill
Over Reliance on Risk Assessment
Instruments instead of Behavior
Observations and Data Monitoring
Unilateral Risk Assessment
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Focus on What –
Not Who
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VIRGINIA TECH WARNING SIGNS
Neighbors reported Cho Seung-Hui, the Virginia Tech
shooter, as being a “loner” and “odd.” He would not respond
when spoken to and would talk to himself.
When taking a creative writing class in fall 2005, female
students complained that Cho would take photos of their legs
under the desks with his cell phone.
Cho wrote about death in such a sinister way that the dozens
of students boycotted the creative writing class.
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VIRGINIA TECH WARNING SIGNS (con’t)
In November 2005 a female student reported “annoying”
behavior from Cho and he was referred to the University
disciplinary system.
In December 2005, a second female student complained
about electronic instant messaging from Cho and he was
told by police not to contact her again. The University was
again contacted.
After an acquaintance reported Cho might be suicidal, a
psychiatric evaluation determined he was a danger to
himself or others as a result of mental illness.
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VIRGINIA TECH WARNING SIGNS (con’t)
Cho receives outpatient treatment in December 2005 and is
deemed to present an imminent danger to himself.
According to a fellow student, Cho had written two plays so
“twisted” that his classmates suspected he might become a
“school shooter.”
- One play involved a fight between a step-father and step-son and
involved throwing of hammers and attacks with a chainsaw.
The second play involved students fantasizing about stalking and
killing a teacher who sexually molested them.
Cho’s tutor at Virginia Tech urged him to seek counseling
and reported her concerns about him to school officials.
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VIRGINIA TECH WARNING SIGNS (con’t)
Cho had recently set fire to his dorm room.
 When Cho purchased the gun for his killing spree he
presented three forms of identification and state police
conducted an instant background check which took about a
minute. Cho did not say why he wanted a gun.
 Cho left a long and vitriolic note in his dorm room
explaining his actions and stating, “You caused me to do
this.” It also railed against “rich kids,” “debauchery,” and
“deceitful charlatans” on campus.
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TECHNIQUES FOR
DISRUPTING /
INTERRUPTING
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If They Broadcast It –
Believe It!
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Skip the “Tea Leaf” Reading
If a coded behavior occurs, go to
a disrupter.
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Always Interrupt / Disrupt the
Behavior
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NEGATIVE BEHAVIORS
INCREASE WHEN THERE ARE
NO TREES (DETERRENTS)
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TREES CATEGORIES (disrupters)
CATEGORY I
QUESTIONING
CATEGORY II
CONFRONTING
CATEGORY III
CONSEQUENCES
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INDIVIDUAL REACTIONS TO TREES
WHEN A TREE IS PLACED AFTER A
PRACTICE SESSION THE INDIVIDUAL
HAS A CHOICE TO EITHER
BACK OFF
OR
CLIMB OVER IT
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Match the disrupter to the
behavioral category, then watch
the results.
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PHASE II
THREAT ASSESSMENT TEAMS’
 Responsibilities
 Functional Duties
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Conduct a Risk
Assessment After a
Broadcast
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RISK ASSESSMENT OUTCOME
CATEGORIES
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Proactive Attack Behaviors Against People/
Property
Reactive Attack Behaviors Against People/
Property
Proactive Non-Attack Behaviors Behaviors
That Create Social / Psychological Disruption
Reactive Non-Attack Behaviors that Create
Social / Psychological Disruption
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Predicting Future Violence
The best predictor of future
behavior is not past behavior
but post-intervention behavior.
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If the concerning behaviors continue
after an intervention, then two
possible hypotheses have been
generated:
1. The individual is choosing to disregard
rules when it suits him/her.
2. The individual does not have the
capacity to control his/her actions.
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IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS
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Risk Assessments must always
include expiration dates.
Risk Assessments must also include
Risk Management Strategies.
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HIPPA & FERPA
ISSUES
OR NOT
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INACCURATE ASSESSMENT
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False Positive
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False Negative
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Don’t Worry Alone or
Make Unilateral Risk
Assessments
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VORTEX
*
*
*
*
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ALL DATA FLOWS INTO IT
SEES THE BIG PICTURE
CAN BE ONE INDIVIDUAL
CAN BE A TEAM
MUST BE FORMALIZED
MUST BE KNOW TO ALL PEOPLE OR KEY PEOPLE
MUST ACT ON THE DATA
WITHOUT A VORTEX ALL EVENTS
APPEAR AS ISOLATED INCIDENTS
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Integrating Everything
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Document and date the behavior
Code the behavior
Activate a response
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Initiate a disrupter
Removal
Counseling
Other Options
Re-evaluate the behavior
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Reintegration Issues and
Considerations
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Attack behaviors and attack-related behaviors have
been eliminated
A functional vortex is in place
Re-entry plan has been developed to include:
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Response protocols
Points of contact
Regular monitoring
Development of methods for reassuring
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Victims
Targets
Students
Teachers/Staff
Others
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Important Consideration
Once a student or individual has
engaged in an attack-related behavior,
they should always remain on the radar
detector, even if the behavior appears
to have stabilized.
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Responding to an Incident and
Dealing with the Aftermath
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Physical Clean Up
Campus Reactivation
Victim Management / Psychological
Clean Up
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