Transcript Ðì MDG Monitoring Workshop National Statistical Office Republic of Armenia 8 -11 November 2010, Geneva, Switzerland SA.

Ðì
MDG Monitoring Workshop
National Statistical Office
Republic of Armenia
8 -11 November 2010, Geneva, Switzerland
SA
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)
1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
2. Achieve universal primary education
3. Promote gender equality and empower
women
4. Reduce child mortality
5. Improve maternal health
6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
7. Ensure environmental sustainability
8. Develop a global partnership for development
Status of MDG Indicators
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48 MDG indicators
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36 MDG indicators in Armenia in 2009, of
which
16 are compiled by administrative registers
20 are compiled by NSO
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Data Sources and Collection Methods
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Integrated Living Conditions Survey (ILCS)
Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)
Labour Force Survey (LFS)
2001 census (next census due in 201)
National Statistical Office of Armenia (NSO)
Administrative registers (AR)
Goal 4. Reduce child mortality
Target 5. Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the
under-five mortality rate
Armenia
Indicators
1996
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source
13. Under-five
mortality rate
expressed as a
rate per 1,000
live births
19.9
19.3
39.0
18.8
16.6
13.6
13.0
13.7
30.0
15.5
12.3
12.1
11.7
NSO
Demographic and
Health Survey –
2000, 2005
UNICEF data
10.4
АР
Demographic and
Health Survey –
2000, 2005
UNICEF data
36
14. Infant
mortality rate
expressed as a
rate per 1,000
live births
15.5
15.6
36.1
32
27
15.4
14.0
12.0
11.6
12.3
26.0
24
23
13.9
10.9
10.8
21
Potential discrepancies between national and
international data
The discrepancies between national (as per current statistics and
Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)) and international estimates
of infant (0-1 years) and child (0-4 years) mortality rates are mainly
due to:
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Different data sources and collection methods, as well as different
estimation methods:
 Quarterly published statistics are based on permanent
administrative records
 DHS conducted every 5 years is sample-based (95% estimated
confidence interval)
 Published at least once a year international estimates are based
on estimation by experimental hypotheses method using
mathematical instruments and regression analysis
Characteristics of interrelation among timeliness, quality, integrity and usability of data from
various sources, based on different collection methods and compilation methods
Time
Integrity
Usability1
(uses)
Incomplete
Only for trends for
prompt decisions
Medium
Medium
For decision-making
High
Complete
For analysis
Quality
Timeliness
Short-term
Low
Short period of time
Medium-term
Medium period of time
Long-term
Less
relevant
1. Statistics are coherent or reconcilable over a reasonable period of time – Principle 14 – Coherence and Comparability
(European Statistics Code of Practice, endorsed on 24.02.2005 by the Statistical Programme Committee (Brussels, 25.05.2005.
COM(2005)217)
Quality Issues of Current Statistics Based on
Administrative Register
1. Prior to 2005 there were differences in the definitions of
‘live birth’ applied in Armenian administrative register
and by WHO:
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Infants who weighed less than 1,000 gram (500-999
gram) at the time of birth and died during the first week
of life were not registered by administrative register as
infant deaths, whereas according to WHO and DHS
definitions these cases were registered as deaths (starting
from 16 October 2005, administrative register shifted to
registering deaths as per WHO definition).
Cont.
2.
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The regulations and legislative instruments applied by the
administrative register (Vital Registration Offices under Armenian
Ministry of Justice) have limitations resulting in underregistration:
In some cases infant deaths registered by health facilities were not
registered by Vital Registration Offices (administrative register)
If an infant was born and died at home, such deaths were not
registered by either health facilities or by Vital Registration Offices
(unless parents approached the administrative register) or a death of
an infant who was born in a health facility but died at home may also
be not registered (as a rule, health facility birth and death data exceed
the administrative register data by 50- 100 cases per annum).
Cont.
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3. Cases of incorrect reports on stillbirths by heath personnel
(deliberate and non-deliberate). Thus, a survey conducted by
Armenian MH and UNICEF in 2002 demonstrated that in
medical certificates of death issued by health personnel such
columns as ‘live birth’, ‘infant death’, ‘stillbirth’ were
fulfilled according to the old classification, when a fetus was
classified as dead if it did not breathe even if showed other
evidence of life.
DHS Data Quality Issues
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Household surveys are essential to the calculation of the infant and
child mortality indicators, but there are some limits to their quality.
Survey data are subject to recall error; in addition, surveys estimating
under-five deaths require large samples because such incidences are
uncommon. Moreover, the frequency of the survey is generally only
every three to five years. Therefore, when using household surveys it
is important to take sampling errors into account.
______________________________________________________
Indicators for Monitoring the Millennium Development Goals Handbook, United Nations, 2003.
International Estimates Quality Issues
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Though international estimates seek to improve the quality of data obtained
from administrative registers and sample surveys, they are also mostly based
on the same sources but with regard to the known shortcomings thereof
Partially they are also based on sample focus groups which have shortcomings
similar to sample surveys, especially for such sensitive phenomenon as child
mortality
Expert hypotheses, especially for child mortality, are highly vulnerable
depending on what extent such hypotheses take into account economic, social,
demographic, environmental, administrative, geographic, national, regional
and global structural and trend factors affecting respondents’ behaviour
Improving Data Availability
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Armenia has improved data availability through such focus surveys as
Integrated Living Conditions Survey, Labour Force Survey,
Demographic and Health Survey, Time Use Survey, supported by
international organizations and donors.
NSO has actively worked with administrative registers, supported
establishment of new administrative registers (e.g. Armenian Ministry of
Environmental Protection and Ministry of Agriculture) and
improvement of existing registers (coverage expansion, methodological
issues), assisted in the interrelation of different registers, particularly, in
the development of common identification code and classifications.
Pro-actively participated in MDG seminars and workshops.
Placed a table with MDG Indicators in Armenia at the main page of the
Web site in 2008.
Progress in MDGs
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NSO together with UNICEF, UN Development Programme and
UNFPA is implementing project ‘Capacity Building of Government
Partners for ArmeniaInfo Involvement’ at the national and provincial
level for monitoring and reporting on MDGs and Sustainable
Development Programme.
Programme objective is to present Armenian’s MDG indicators in the
format of ArmeniaInfo database that will be accessible to all users.
MDG Indicators database was developed following the format of
DevInfo, updated for 1999-2008 data and placed at www.devinfo.info.
DevInfo 6.0/ArmeniaInfo database was developed by NSO and placed
at www.armdevinfo.am in 2010 (in Armenian and English).
Cont.
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NSO received all necessary hardware and software for
designing www.armdevinfo.am
21-26 June 2010 – a delegation of 11 persons, including 8
users from Armenian Regional Administration Ministry,
Ministry of Labour and Social Issues and UNICEF, made a
training tour to Serbia.
Training Courses
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1-8 June 2009 – training course in DevInfo 6.0 User & Database
Administration
30 trainees from NSO and other government agencies as key users:
- Armenian Ministry of Economy
- Armenian Regional Administration Ministry
- Armenian Emergency Ministry
- Armenian Ministry of Labour and Social Issues
26-30 June 2009 - training course in DevInfo 6.0 User & Database
Administration for NSO’s provincial agencies.
18-22 October 2010 – Training of Trainers (ToT) in DevInfo 6.0
User/Database/Administration Modules.
Issues
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Quality of administrative registers
Lack of community-level administrative registers
Lack of resources, especially at provincial level:
human, financial and technical resources
Lack of Internet connection for accessing
databases at provincial level
Challenges
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To generate data sources (particularly, to generate community-level administrative registers)
To review and use alternative estimates and data sources
To provide disaggregated data at the national and subnational levels
To evaluate data quality, to overcome shortcomings and data discrepancies
To build statistical capacity
To improve methods of estimation, collection and dissemination of MDG indicators
To enhance knowledge of MDGs generators and users, to train data users
To prepare and publish usage instructions for Devinfo in Armenian
To arrange further training in usage of Devinfo at provincial level
To provide hardware and software to provincial statistical agencies
To maintain database management in NSO headquarters and provincial statistical agencies
To improve coordination between national agencies and international organizations, between
countries and international organizations and among international organizations
To intensify international cooperation in the compilation and dissemination of MDG indicators
NSO’s Strategy
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To build NSO’s capacity for producing and disseminating data for MDG
monitoring and reporting
To expand and regularly update MDG indicators database at
www.armdevinfo.am
To create and disseminate MDG indicators database at provincial level
To present indicators of Armenian Social Situation and Poverty Report in
DevInfo format (subject to support availability)
To present TRANSMONEE indicators DevInfo format (subject to support
availability)
To support development of other required sets of indicators, databases in
DevInfo format together with national partners and international
organizations
To intensify collaboration with administrative registers
To perform activities to generate other respondents
Library and Internet
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Library contains all statistical outputs of Armenian NSO,
statistical publications of other countries and international
organizations, methodological manuals, textbooks, legal
documents, etc.
Statistical Library is open to the public.
Electronic catalogue of the library can be accessed through
the Internet.
Thank you
National Statistical Office
Republic of Armenia
Yerevan, 0010, Republic Ave., House of
Government 3
Fax: (37410) 521 921
E-mail: [email protected];
[email protected]
Homepage: http://www.armstat.am;
www.armstat.info; www.armdevinfo.am