Current status of BTS & CS harmonisation in non-EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries The 4th joint EU-OECD Workshop on Business and.
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Transcript Current status of BTS & CS harmonisation in non-EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries The 4th joint EU-OECD Workshop on Business and.
Current status of BTS & CS
harmonisation in
non-EU OECD countries,
OECD enhanced engagement
economies and
OECD accession countries
The 4th joint EU-OECD Workshop on
Business and Consumer Opinion Surveys
Brussels 12-13 October 2009
Elena Tosetto (OECD), Gyorgy Gyomai (OECD)
Outline
•
Introduction
•
OECD Harmonised System of BTS: some quick instructions
•
Overview of the current status of the harmonisation of the surveys in non-EU
OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession
countries by sector
•
Summary table of the current status of the harmonisation (rough indication)
•
Conclusions
2
Introduction
•
Globalisation: comparisons between countries and regions crucial
•
The EU Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs
established standard framework for BTS during 1970s.
•
•
The OECD & the EU worked to adapt this system for use by other countries in Europe and Central Asia.
Asian Pacific countries, Latin America and Caribbean region: implementation of the harmonised BTS underway
•
Following from Nilsson (2003), overview enlarged to more sectors and
more countries:
Non-EU OECD Countries: Australia, Canada, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, South Korea,
Switzerland, Turkey and Unites States
OECD enhanced engaged economies: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa
OECD (Non-EU) accession countries: Chile and Israel
Sectors: Industry, Construction, Retail Trade, Services and Consumer Survey
•
Review based on information available and methodological information
sent by the countries after an OECD request by e-mail (July-August 2009)
3
OECD Harmonised System of BTS:
quick instructions
• Complete and detailed description:
OECD “Business Tendency Surveys: a Handbook”
freely available on the OECD website at
http://www.oecd.org/document/36/0,3343,en_2649_34353_14638564_1_1_1_1,00.html
• Aim of BTS: monitor and forecast Short Term economic
developments
• Sectors most sensitive to cyclical fluctuations: Industry,
Construction, Retail Trade and Services
• To check inter-country comparability: frequency, coverage and
format of the survey questions
4
BTS in industry in Non-EU OECD countries:
Coverage and Format of questions in individual countries
corresponding to harmonised questions
Industry/Manufacturing
Source
Survey frequency
Industry/Manufacturing
Production:tendency
Production: future tendency
Order books: level
Export order books: level
Stock of finished goods: level
Selling Prices: future
tendency
Employment: future tendency
Production constraints
Capacity utilisation
Business situation: present
Business situation: future
Legend:
M: Monthly
Q: Quarterly
S: Six-monthly
A: Annual
OECD
Harmonised
System
OECD
Canada
USA
Mexico
Australia
New
Zealand
CBOC
Q
ISM
M
Manuf
T1
BM
M,S
Manuf
T1
F3
L
L
ACCI
Q
Manuf
T3
F3
T3*
T3**
T3
F6
F3
T1/T3
F3
L
L
L
T1
T1*
T1
F3
F3
N
L(%)
T1/T3
F6
CBOC
ISM
BM
ACCI
NZIER
T1
Japan
Norway
Switzerland
Turkey
NZIER
Q
Manuf
T3
F3
T3**
T3**
L
BOJ
Q
Manuf
KOF
M,Q
Manuf
T1
F3
L
L
L
TCB
M
Manuf
T1
F1
T1*
L
SN
Q
Industry
T3
F3
L
T3*
L
F3
F3
F3
F3
F3
F1
F3
N
FL
F3
N
L(%)
F1
N
L (%)
F6***
F3
N
L(%)
L
F6
L
L(%)
F3
N
L
F6***
F3
F6***
The Conference Board of Canada
Institute for Supply Management United States
Bank of Mexico
Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry
New Zealand Institute of Economic Research
T1 = Past/present change compared to 1 month ago
T3 = Past/present change compared to 3 months ago
T6 = Past/present change compared to 6 months ago
T12 = Past/present change compared to 12 months ago
L = Present level
FL = Future level
BOJ
SN
KOF
TCB
F1 = Future change for 1 month ahead
F2-3 = Future change for 2 or 3 months ahead
F3 = Future change for 3 months ahead
F6 = Future change for 6 months ahead
F12 = Future change for 12 months ahead
N = Nominal list of alternative
L
FL
T1
Bank of Japan
Statistics Norway
KOF Swiss Economic Institute
Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
* New orders (export if it is the case)
** Deliveries (export if it is the case)
*** Business situation in the country
**** Demand
5
BTS in industry
in OECD enhanced engagement economies and
OECD accession countries:
Coverage and Format of questions
Industry/Manufacturing
Source
Survey frequency
Industry/Manufacturing
Production:tendency
Production: future tendency
Order books: level
Export order books: level
Stock of finished goods: level
Selling Prices: future
tendency
Employment: future tendency
Production constraints
Capacity utilisation
Business situation: present
Business situation: future
FGV
NBS
BI
IET
OECD
Harmonised
System
OECD
Brazil
Indonesia
Russia
South
Africa
FGV
M,Q
Manuf
BI
Q
Manuf
Chile
Israel
Israel
BER
Q
Manuf
T3
F3
T3
T3
L
BCC
M
Manuf
T1
F3
L
MAI
Q
Manuf
T3
F3
T3
T3
T3
BOI
Q
Manuf
T3
F3
T3
T3
N
T3
T1/T3
F3
L
L
L
F3
L****
L****
L
IET
M,Q
Industry
L
F2-3
L
L
L
F3
F3
F2-3
F3
F6
F3
N
L(%)
T1/T3
F6
F3
N
L(%)
L
F6
F2-3
N
%
L
F6
F3
N
L
T3
F3 & F12
F3
L(%)
L
F6
Fundacao Getulio Vargas Brazil
National Bureau of Statistics of China
Bank of Indonesia
Institute for the Economy in Transition Russia
BER
BCC
MAI
BOI
L
L(%)
F3 (F6***)
Bureau for Economic Research South Africa
Central Bank of Chile
Manufactures Association of Israel
Bank of Israel
•Frequency: Majority of countries surveyed conducts quarterly surveys
•Coverage (necessary condition): Good (broadly speaking)
•Format (step forward): The most harmonised industry survey
•Non-EU OECD countries: Switzerland ( 10 over 11 harmonised questions)
•OECD enhanced engaged economies & OECD accession countries: Brazil, Russia, South Africa (9 or 8 over 11)
6
T3
T3
T3
BTS in Construction and Retail Trade in
Non-EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies
and OECD accession countries: Coverage and Format
Construction
Source
Survey frequency
Business activity: present
Production constraints
Order books
Employment: future tendency
Output prices: future
tendency
Period of production secured
New orders (contracts)
Financial situation
Delays in payment by client
Technical capacity
Retail Trade
Source
Survey frequency
Business situation: present
Business situation: future
Stocks
Orders placed: future
tendency
Employment: future tendency
Selling prices: tendency
Selling prices: future tendency
Financial situation
Competition in the sector
Activity constraints
OECD
Harmonised
System
T1/T3
N
L
F3
Mexico
BM
M,S
L
Indonesia
South Africa
Chile
Israel
BOJ
Q
L
KOF
Q
L
N
L
BI
Q
L
BER
Q
T3
N
BCC
M
L
BOI
Q
T3
N
F3
F3
FL
F3
F3
F3
F3
L
F3
F3
F6
T3
months
F3
F3
L
L
T3
Mexico
BM
M,S
L
F6
L
F3
F3
T1/T3
F3
T1/T3
T1/T3
N
Switzerland
N
T3**,F3**
months
F3
T1/T3
T1/T3
L
T1/T3
F6
L
NZIER
Q
Japan
L
F3
OECD
Harmonised
System
New
Zealand
New
Zealand
NZIER
Q
F6***
L
L(%)
L(%)
Japan
Switzerland
Indonesia
South Africa
Chile
Israel
BOJ
Q
L
FL
L
KOF
M,Q
L
F6
L
BI
Q
L
F6
BER
Q
T3***
F3***
L
BCC
M
L
F6
L
BOI
Q
F3
F3
T3
F3
T3
F3
F3
F3
F3
F6
F3
T3
F3
FL
T3
F3
L
F3
T3
F6
L
N
N
7
BTS in Services in
Non-EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement
economies and OECD accession countries: Coverage and Format
Services
Source
Survey frequency
Demand: present
Demand: future tendency
Employment: present
Employment: future tendency
Activity constraints
Business situation: present
Business situation: future
Financial situation
Access to the credit
OECD
Harmonised
System
T1/T3
F3
T1/T3
F3
N
T1/T3
F6
T1/T3
T1/T3
New
Zealand
Japan
Switzerland
Indonesia
Israel
ISM
M
T1
NZIER
Q
BOJ
Q
BI
Q
BOI
Q
T1
T3
F3
N
L
FL
KOF
Q
T3
F3
L
F3
N
L
F6
USA
T1
F6***
L
FL
L
L
T3
L
F6
L
L
•Frequency: Majority quarterly surveys
(monthly: Mexico, Chile, Switzerland (Retail Trade), and the USA)
•Coverage (necessary condition): Good (broadly speaking)
•Format (step forward): The most harmonised surveys:
•Non-EU OECD countries: Switzerland (Construction and Services: 7 over 10 and 5 over 9) and
New Zealand (Retail: 7 over 10)
•OECD enhanced engaged economies & OECD accession countries: South Africa (Construction & Retail)
8
N
T3
F3
Consumer surveys in Non-EU OECD countries:
Coverage and Format of questions
OECD-EU
Harmonised
System
Consumer Survey
Source
Financial situation: present
Financial situation: future
tendency
General economic situation:
present
General economic situation:
future tendency
Consumer prices: present
Consumer prices: future
tendency
Unemployment: future
tendency
Major purchases of durable
consumer goods: current
environment
Major purchases intentions:
future tendency
Saving: current environment
Saving intentions: future
tendency
Capacity to save
Purchase a car: future
tendency
Purchase a house: future
tendency
Home improvements: future
tendency
Legend:
CBOC
UM
INEGI
BM
MIAESR
Canada
USA
Mexico
Australia
New
Zealand
Japan
Switzerland
Turkey
T12
CBOC
T6
UM
T12
INEGI/BM
T12
MIAESR
T12
WB
T12
BOJ
T12
SECO
T12
TSI
T6
F12
F6
F12
F12
F12
F12
F12
F6
T12
T12
T12
T12
T12
T12
T3
F12
F12
F12
F12
F12
F12
F3
T12
T12
F12 & 5Y
F12
F12
L*
F6*
S
S
F12 & 5Y
T12
F12
F12
F12
F12
F12
F6*
F12
S
S
S
F12
F12
T12
S
S
F12
F3 & F6
S
S
F12
F6
S
S
F12
F6
F12
F12
F12
F6
The Conference Board of Canada
WB
Westpac Bank
The University of Michigan
BOJ
Bank of Japan
National Statistical Institute of Mexico
SECO
State Secretariat for Economic Affairs
Bank of Mexico
TSI
Turkish Statistical Institute
Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research
9
Consumer surveys in OECD enhanced engagement economies
and OECD accession countries:
Coverage and Format of questions
Consumer Survey
Source
Financial situation: present
Financial situation: future
tendency
General economic situation:
present
General economic situation:
future tendency
Consumer prices: present
Consumer prices: future
tendency
Unemployment: future
tendency
Major purchases of durable
consumer goods: current
environment
Major purchases intentions:
future tendency
Saving: current environment
Saving intentions: future
tendency
Capacity to save
Purchase a car: future
tendency
Purchase a house: future
tendency
Home improvements: future
tendency
OECD-EU
Harmonised
System
Brazil
Indonesia
South Africa
Chile
Legend:
FGV
L
BI
T6
BER
T12
AGFK
T12
T6 = Past/present change compared to 6 months ago
T12 = Past/present change compared to 12 months ago
F12
F6
F6
F12
F12
L = Present level
T12
L
T6
L
FL = Future level
F12
F6
F6
F12
FL
T12
F3 = Future change for 3 months ahead
F12
F12
F6*
S
F12
S: Statement/situation
F3 & F6
F12
F6*
FL
S
S
S
F6 = Future change for 6 months ahead
F12 = Future change for 12 months ahead
* = Employment/job secturity/job opportunity/job availablility
F6
S
F12
F6
S
S
F12
F6
F12
F6
F12
F6
S
S
•Frequency: Majority monthly (quarterly: New Zealand, Switzerland, Turkey and South Africa)
•Coverage (necessary condition): Good (broadly speaking)
•Format (step forward): Difference mostly on the horizon
10
Overview of the harmonisation status of the BTS & CS
in the Non EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement
economies and OECD accession countries :
Introduction
•
Overview based on coverage & format
•
Rough indication, no mechanical role should be applied (different
importance of questions not considered)
• BTS: scale 1 to 5
1 = low harmonisation: num. harmonised questions (h) in format are less
than ⅓ of the total h < ⅓;
2 = weak harmonisation: ⅓ ≤ h ≤ ½;
3 = can be improved: ½ < h ≤ ⅔;
4 = good harmonisation: ⅔ < h < 1;
5 = perfect harmonisation.
•
CS: UM’s coverage as benchmark (good coverage)
11
Overview of the harmonisation status of the BTS & CS
in the Non EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement
economies and OECD accession countries :
Summary tables
Surveys
Industry/
Manufacturing
Construction
Retail trade
Services
Consumer
Surveys
Canada
USA
Mexico
1
1
3
Non-EU OECD countries
New
Australia
Japan
Zealand
4
4
1
4
3
4
2
2
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
4
2
OECD enhanced engagement economies
South
Brazil China Indonesia Russia
Africa
Industry/
4
x
Manufacturing
Construction
x
Retail trade
x
x
Services
x
x
Consumer
1
x
Legend
1 = Low harmonisation
2 = Weak harmonisation
3 = Harmonisation to be improved
1
1
1
1
1
4
Norway Switzerland
4
Turkey
4/5
1
4
1
4
4
1
OECD accession countries
Israel
Chile
Israel (BOI)
(MAI)
4
3
1
3
1
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
4 = Good harmonisation
5 = Full harmonisation
x = Questionnaire not available
12
Overview of the harmonisation status of the BTS & CS
in the Non EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement
economies and OECD accession countries :
Comments
•
•
Manufacturing/Industry survey: more largely conducted, most harmonised (in
gen. the first BTS)
Other surveys: increasing importance
•
•
Coverage: necessary condition for international comparisons
Harmonisation of the format: step forward (better and easier comparisons)
Among Non-EU OECD countries: Switzerland best combination harmonisation and coverage
Among OECD enhanced engaged economies & OECD accession countries: South Africa and
Chile best situations
•
•
•
No English translation (at the time of the review): Indonesia (BTS), China (BTS & CS)
No questionnaires: Retail Trade & Services for Brazil
No information from India and South Korea
13
Conclusions
•
Globalisation: comparisons between countries and regions crucial
•
Adoption harmonised BTS and CS = further progress
•
Actual analysis = Mixed picture (compare to Nilsson, 2003):
Improvements: Mexico, Brazil, South Africa
Step back: Canada, India
Accession countries: Chile (good level)
14
Thank you
15