Current status of BTS & CS harmonisation in non-EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries The 4th joint EU-OECD Workshop on Business and.
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Current status of BTS & CS harmonisation in non-EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries The 4th joint EU-OECD Workshop on Business and Consumer Opinion Surveys Brussels 12-13 October 2009 Elena Tosetto (OECD), Gyorgy Gyomai (OECD) Outline • Introduction • OECD Harmonised System of BTS: some quick instructions • Overview of the current status of the harmonisation of the surveys in non-EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries by sector • Summary table of the current status of the harmonisation (rough indication) • Conclusions 2 Introduction • Globalisation: comparisons between countries and regions crucial • The EU Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs established standard framework for BTS during 1970s. • • The OECD & the EU worked to adapt this system for use by other countries in Europe and Central Asia. Asian Pacific countries, Latin America and Caribbean region: implementation of the harmonised BTS underway • Following from Nilsson (2003), overview enlarged to more sectors and more countries: Non-EU OECD Countries: Australia, Canada, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, South Korea, Switzerland, Turkey and Unites States OECD enhanced engaged economies: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa OECD (Non-EU) accession countries: Chile and Israel Sectors: Industry, Construction, Retail Trade, Services and Consumer Survey • Review based on information available and methodological information sent by the countries after an OECD request by e-mail (July-August 2009) 3 OECD Harmonised System of BTS: quick instructions • Complete and detailed description: OECD “Business Tendency Surveys: a Handbook” freely available on the OECD website at http://www.oecd.org/document/36/0,3343,en_2649_34353_14638564_1_1_1_1,00.html • Aim of BTS: monitor and forecast Short Term economic developments • Sectors most sensitive to cyclical fluctuations: Industry, Construction, Retail Trade and Services • To check inter-country comparability: frequency, coverage and format of the survey questions 4 BTS in industry in Non-EU OECD countries: Coverage and Format of questions in individual countries corresponding to harmonised questions Industry/Manufacturing Source Survey frequency Industry/Manufacturing Production:tendency Production: future tendency Order books: level Export order books: level Stock of finished goods: level Selling Prices: future tendency Employment: future tendency Production constraints Capacity utilisation Business situation: present Business situation: future Legend: M: Monthly Q: Quarterly S: Six-monthly A: Annual OECD Harmonised System OECD Canada USA Mexico Australia New Zealand CBOC Q ISM M Manuf T1 BM M,S Manuf T1 F3 L L ACCI Q Manuf T3 F3 T3* T3** T3 F6 F3 T1/T3 F3 L L L T1 T1* T1 F3 F3 N L(%) T1/T3 F6 CBOC ISM BM ACCI NZIER T1 Japan Norway Switzerland Turkey NZIER Q Manuf T3 F3 T3** T3** L BOJ Q Manuf KOF M,Q Manuf T1 F3 L L L TCB M Manuf T1 F1 T1* L SN Q Industry T3 F3 L T3* L F3 F3 F3 F3 F3 F1 F3 N FL F3 N L(%) F1 N L (%) F6*** F3 N L(%) L F6 L L(%) F3 N L F6*** F3 F6*** The Conference Board of Canada Institute for Supply Management United States Bank of Mexico Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry New Zealand Institute of Economic Research T1 = Past/present change compared to 1 month ago T3 = Past/present change compared to 3 months ago T6 = Past/present change compared to 6 months ago T12 = Past/present change compared to 12 months ago L = Present level FL = Future level BOJ SN KOF TCB F1 = Future change for 1 month ahead F2-3 = Future change for 2 or 3 months ahead F3 = Future change for 3 months ahead F6 = Future change for 6 months ahead F12 = Future change for 12 months ahead N = Nominal list of alternative L FL T1 Bank of Japan Statistics Norway KOF Swiss Economic Institute Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey * New orders (export if it is the case) ** Deliveries (export if it is the case) *** Business situation in the country **** Demand 5 BTS in industry in OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries: Coverage and Format of questions Industry/Manufacturing Source Survey frequency Industry/Manufacturing Production:tendency Production: future tendency Order books: level Export order books: level Stock of finished goods: level Selling Prices: future tendency Employment: future tendency Production constraints Capacity utilisation Business situation: present Business situation: future FGV NBS BI IET OECD Harmonised System OECD Brazil Indonesia Russia South Africa FGV M,Q Manuf BI Q Manuf Chile Israel Israel BER Q Manuf T3 F3 T3 T3 L BCC M Manuf T1 F3 L MAI Q Manuf T3 F3 T3 T3 T3 BOI Q Manuf T3 F3 T3 T3 N T3 T1/T3 F3 L L L F3 L**** L**** L IET M,Q Industry L F2-3 L L L F3 F3 F2-3 F3 F6 F3 N L(%) T1/T3 F6 F3 N L(%) L F6 F2-3 N % L F6 F3 N L T3 F3 & F12 F3 L(%) L F6 Fundacao Getulio Vargas Brazil National Bureau of Statistics of China Bank of Indonesia Institute for the Economy in Transition Russia BER BCC MAI BOI L L(%) F3 (F6***) Bureau for Economic Research South Africa Central Bank of Chile Manufactures Association of Israel Bank of Israel •Frequency: Majority of countries surveyed conducts quarterly surveys •Coverage (necessary condition): Good (broadly speaking) •Format (step forward): The most harmonised industry survey •Non-EU OECD countries: Switzerland ( 10 over 11 harmonised questions) •OECD enhanced engaged economies & OECD accession countries: Brazil, Russia, South Africa (9 or 8 over 11) 6 T3 T3 T3 BTS in Construction and Retail Trade in Non-EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries: Coverage and Format Construction Source Survey frequency Business activity: present Production constraints Order books Employment: future tendency Output prices: future tendency Period of production secured New orders (contracts) Financial situation Delays in payment by client Technical capacity Retail Trade Source Survey frequency Business situation: present Business situation: future Stocks Orders placed: future tendency Employment: future tendency Selling prices: tendency Selling prices: future tendency Financial situation Competition in the sector Activity constraints OECD Harmonised System T1/T3 N L F3 Mexico BM M,S L Indonesia South Africa Chile Israel BOJ Q L KOF Q L N L BI Q L BER Q T3 N BCC M L BOI Q T3 N F3 F3 FL F3 F3 F3 F3 L F3 F3 F6 T3 months F3 F3 L L T3 Mexico BM M,S L F6 L F3 F3 T1/T3 F3 T1/T3 T1/T3 N Switzerland N T3**,F3** months F3 T1/T3 T1/T3 L T1/T3 F6 L NZIER Q Japan L F3 OECD Harmonised System New Zealand New Zealand NZIER Q F6*** L L(%) L(%) Japan Switzerland Indonesia South Africa Chile Israel BOJ Q L FL L KOF M,Q L F6 L BI Q L F6 BER Q T3*** F3*** L BCC M L F6 L BOI Q F3 F3 T3 F3 T3 F3 F3 F3 F3 F6 F3 T3 F3 FL T3 F3 L F3 T3 F6 L N N 7 BTS in Services in Non-EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries: Coverage and Format Services Source Survey frequency Demand: present Demand: future tendency Employment: present Employment: future tendency Activity constraints Business situation: present Business situation: future Financial situation Access to the credit OECD Harmonised System T1/T3 F3 T1/T3 F3 N T1/T3 F6 T1/T3 T1/T3 New Zealand Japan Switzerland Indonesia Israel ISM M T1 NZIER Q BOJ Q BI Q BOI Q T1 T3 F3 N L FL KOF Q T3 F3 L F3 N L F6 USA T1 F6*** L FL L L T3 L F6 L L •Frequency: Majority quarterly surveys (monthly: Mexico, Chile, Switzerland (Retail Trade), and the USA) •Coverage (necessary condition): Good (broadly speaking) •Format (step forward): The most harmonised surveys: •Non-EU OECD countries: Switzerland (Construction and Services: 7 over 10 and 5 over 9) and New Zealand (Retail: 7 over 10) •OECD enhanced engaged economies & OECD accession countries: South Africa (Construction & Retail) 8 N T3 F3 Consumer surveys in Non-EU OECD countries: Coverage and Format of questions OECD-EU Harmonised System Consumer Survey Source Financial situation: present Financial situation: future tendency General economic situation: present General economic situation: future tendency Consumer prices: present Consumer prices: future tendency Unemployment: future tendency Major purchases of durable consumer goods: current environment Major purchases intentions: future tendency Saving: current environment Saving intentions: future tendency Capacity to save Purchase a car: future tendency Purchase a house: future tendency Home improvements: future tendency Legend: CBOC UM INEGI BM MIAESR Canada USA Mexico Australia New Zealand Japan Switzerland Turkey T12 CBOC T6 UM T12 INEGI/BM T12 MIAESR T12 WB T12 BOJ T12 SECO T12 TSI T6 F12 F6 F12 F12 F12 F12 F12 F6 T12 T12 T12 T12 T12 T12 T3 F12 F12 F12 F12 F12 F12 F3 T12 T12 F12 & 5Y F12 F12 L* F6* S S F12 & 5Y T12 F12 F12 F12 F12 F12 F6* F12 S S S F12 F12 T12 S S F12 F3 & F6 S S F12 F6 S S F12 F6 F12 F12 F12 F6 The Conference Board of Canada WB Westpac Bank The University of Michigan BOJ Bank of Japan National Statistical Institute of Mexico SECO State Secretariat for Economic Affairs Bank of Mexico TSI Turkish Statistical Institute Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research 9 Consumer surveys in OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries: Coverage and Format of questions Consumer Survey Source Financial situation: present Financial situation: future tendency General economic situation: present General economic situation: future tendency Consumer prices: present Consumer prices: future tendency Unemployment: future tendency Major purchases of durable consumer goods: current environment Major purchases intentions: future tendency Saving: current environment Saving intentions: future tendency Capacity to save Purchase a car: future tendency Purchase a house: future tendency Home improvements: future tendency OECD-EU Harmonised System Brazil Indonesia South Africa Chile Legend: FGV L BI T6 BER T12 AGFK T12 T6 = Past/present change compared to 6 months ago T12 = Past/present change compared to 12 months ago F12 F6 F6 F12 F12 L = Present level T12 L T6 L FL = Future level F12 F6 F6 F12 FL T12 F3 = Future change for 3 months ahead F12 F12 F6* S F12 S: Statement/situation F3 & F6 F12 F6* FL S S S F6 = Future change for 6 months ahead F12 = Future change for 12 months ahead * = Employment/job secturity/job opportunity/job availablility F6 S F12 F6 S S F12 F6 F12 F6 F12 F6 S S •Frequency: Majority monthly (quarterly: New Zealand, Switzerland, Turkey and South Africa) •Coverage (necessary condition): Good (broadly speaking) •Format (step forward): Difference mostly on the horizon 10 Overview of the harmonisation status of the BTS & CS in the Non EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries : Introduction • Overview based on coverage & format • Rough indication, no mechanical role should be applied (different importance of questions not considered) • BTS: scale 1 to 5 1 = low harmonisation: num. harmonised questions (h) in format are less than ⅓ of the total h < ⅓; 2 = weak harmonisation: ⅓ ≤ h ≤ ½; 3 = can be improved: ½ < h ≤ ⅔; 4 = good harmonisation: ⅔ < h < 1; 5 = perfect harmonisation. • CS: UM’s coverage as benchmark (good coverage) 11 Overview of the harmonisation status of the BTS & CS in the Non EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries : Summary tables Surveys Industry/ Manufacturing Construction Retail trade Services Consumer Surveys Canada USA Mexico 1 1 3 Non-EU OECD countries New Australia Japan Zealand 4 4 1 4 3 4 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 4 2 OECD enhanced engagement economies South Brazil China Indonesia Russia Africa Industry/ 4 x Manufacturing Construction x Retail trade x x Services x x Consumer 1 x Legend 1 = Low harmonisation 2 = Weak harmonisation 3 = Harmonisation to be improved 1 1 1 1 1 4 Norway Switzerland 4 Turkey 4/5 1 4 1 4 4 1 OECD accession countries Israel Chile Israel (BOI) (MAI) 4 3 1 3 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 4 = Good harmonisation 5 = Full harmonisation x = Questionnaire not available 12 Overview of the harmonisation status of the BTS & CS in the Non EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries : Comments • • Manufacturing/Industry survey: more largely conducted, most harmonised (in gen. the first BTS) Other surveys: increasing importance • • Coverage: necessary condition for international comparisons Harmonisation of the format: step forward (better and easier comparisons) Among Non-EU OECD countries: Switzerland best combination harmonisation and coverage Among OECD enhanced engaged economies & OECD accession countries: South Africa and Chile best situations • • • No English translation (at the time of the review): Indonesia (BTS), China (BTS & CS) No questionnaires: Retail Trade & Services for Brazil No information from India and South Korea 13 Conclusions • Globalisation: comparisons between countries and regions crucial • Adoption harmonised BTS and CS = further progress • Actual analysis = Mixed picture (compare to Nilsson, 2003): Improvements: Mexico, Brazil, South Africa Step back: Canada, India Accession countries: Chile (good level) 14 Thank you 15