Transcript Land Use/Cover Change Effects on Terrestrial Carbon Sources and Sinks Josep Canadell CSIRO, Canberra, Australia [[email protected]]

Land Use/Cover Change Effects on
Terrestrial Carbon Sources and Sinks
Josep Canadell
CSIRO, Canberra, Australia
[[email protected]]
Outline
• APN project and GCTE/GCP
• Carbon Emissions
• Indonesia
•
•
•
•
China
Fire emissions
Erosion and Riverine transport
Future emissions
• Carbon Sinks
• Sink Mechanisms
• Forest sinks in Japan
APN Project:
“Land Use Change and the Carbon Cycle in Asia [APN2000-02]”
Workshop: Kobe, January 2001
Commissioned Studies:
Land Use Change and Carbon Cycle in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands of East and Central Asia. Chuluun.
Carbon Budgets of Forest Ecosystems in Southeast Asia Following Disturbance and Restoration. Lasco.
Support the development of two Research Proposals for GEF-IPCC:
An Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability in Watershed areas
and communities in Southeast Asia. Lasco.
Potential Impacts of Climate Change and V&A Assessment for Grassland Ecosystem and
Livestock Sector in Mongolia. Chuluun.
APN-GCTE Special Journal Edition:
Land Use/Cover Change Effects on the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle in the Asian Pacific Region
“Science in China, Life Sciences – Series C
Editors: Josep Canadell, Guangsheng Zhou, Ian Noble
Carbon Emissions
Global Emissions from Land Use Change
Historically
Total emissions of C
[deforestation and fossil-fuel burning]
450 PgC
[180-200 PgC from land use change]
+ 90 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere
ppm due to changes in land use]
1 Pg C = [401,000,000,000,000,000
gC
From 1850 to 1990
(a
billion
tones)
124 Pg emitted due to land use change
90% due to
deforestation
60% in tropical areas
%40 in temperate areas
[20% descrease
Forest Area]
Houghton et al. 1999, Houghton 1999, Defries et al. 1999, IPCC-TAR 2001
6,3
Fossil Fuel
Net Annual Flux of Carbon from
Changes in Land Use
1.4
1.2
Tropical Asia
1.0
Latin
America
0.8
0.6
Africa
0.4
0.2
North America
China
0.0
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
Houghton 1999
Houghton 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue, 2002
2
Tropical Asia
Annual C Emissions
Tropical Asia and
China [1850-2000]
1.8
Fossil fuels
Land-use change
Land-use change & fossil fuels
1.6
1.4
1.2
-1
Annual Emissions of Carbon (Pg C yr )
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
1950
1970
1990
2
China
1.8
Fossil fuels
Land-use change
Land-use change & fossil fuels
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
Houghton 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue
Annual rat
)
-1
-100
-150
Annual Flux of Carbon in Tropical Asia and China
-4
2.00
1200
1000
1.00
800
0.00
600
1850
-250
120
Degradation of forest
Croplands
Plantations
Forest
Tropical
Asia
Industrial harvest
Fuelwood harvest
Croplands
Shifting Cultivation
Plantations
Industrial harvest
Fuelwood harvest
1870
1890
1910
70
20
1930
1950
1970
1990
-30
-2.000
1850
-200
-80
[1850-2000]
-1
400
-1.00
200
Annual harvest (Tg C yr
Annual
flux
of carbon
(Tg C change
yr -1) (10
Annual
rates
of land-use
6
ha yr -1)
3.00
-6
-200
China
)
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
-3.00
-400
-130
China
350
Annual flux of carbon (Tg C yr
-1
)
300
250
200
Degradation
Croplands
Industrial harvest
Fuelwood harvest
Plantations
150
100
50
0
1850
-50
-100
-150
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
Houghton 2002
APN-GCTE Special Issue
Land cover
C
density
% of Natural
Forest*
Oil-palm (10yrs)
Oil-palm (10 yrs)
Oil-palm (14 yrs)
Oil-palm (19 yrs)
Coffee
Natural forest
62
31
101
96
18
325
19
10
31
30
6
-
Aboveground
biomass
[30]
Mature agroforest
(rubber jungle)
5-yr old rubber
Oil palm plantation
Coffee mixed garden
Undisturbed rainforest
104
27
Aboveground and
below ground
[18]
15.6
62.4
18
390
4
16
5
-
Rubber agroforests
Rubber agroforests
with selected planting
material
Rubber monoculture
Oil palm monoculture
Natural forest
116
103
46
41
Aboveground
biomass and upper
30cm of soil
[17]
97
91
254
38
36
-
Rubber jungle
35.5
14*
Aboveground
biomass
[32]
Home gardens
35-40
20*
Tree biomass
[30]
40.3
16*
Aboveground
biomass and
necromass
[34]
Cinnamon
39
15*
Aboveground
biomass
[31]
Cinnamon
44
17*
Aboveground
biomass
[31]
Oil palm (30 yrs)
Carbon Pools
Measured
Source of data
C Density
of various
land covers
in Indonesia
Lasco 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue
and Commissioned Study 2001
Forest Fires and Carbon Emissions
CO over Western Pacific
at 10 Km [1993-2001]
(a) Carbon monoxide (CO)
100ppb
Jambi Province, Sumatra
Frequency of Hot Spots
Relative CO mixing ratio (ppb)
30N-25N
25N-20N
20N-15N
15N-10N
10N-5N
5N-EQ
EQ-5S
5S-10S
10S-15S
15S-20S
20S-25S
25S-30S
3
2
(b) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
SOI
1
0
-1
-2
-3
1993
Murdiyarso 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Matsueda 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue
River Transport of Carbon in the Godavari Basin, India
400
1000
Flux (x109 g C yr-1)
200
75
50
100
10
25
1
0
ate
per
a
Tem
l
pica
Tro
Fig. 2
d
iari
Sem
Tot
al
Concentration (mg C l-1)
Taig
Sarin 2002
APN-GCTE Issue
TOC (1012 g C yr-1)
300
C Fluxes and Concentrations
In the Godavari Basin, India
Global River Transport of C
60%
DIC
POC
DOC
10
1
0.1
ga
ga
na
ha
it a
at i
ar i
Pur engan Ward ingan Pranh Indrav Sab
P
Wa
0.24 Pg yr-1
Tributaries
)
)
)
(13 al (7 y(20
ded cheri undr
n
a
n
m
N Ma
ah
Raj
Main stream
Land Covers and aCO2 in 2050 using IPCC-SRES
Agricultural Land
Forest Area
7000
6000
Total forest area (Mha)
5000
B1
4000
A2
A1b
A1b_fastmigration
3000
A1b_nonegfb
2000
1000
0
Year
35
CO2 Emissions [714 ppm – 1009 ppm]
Total CO2 emissions (Pg C/yr)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Scenarios:
‘material consumption’ (A); ‘sustainability and equity’ (B)
'globalisation’ (1) ‘regionalisation’ (2)
Year
Leemans 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue
Carbon Sinks
% Difference in Net Primary Production [1870-1990]
[Existing - undisturbed land cover]
NPP loss
NPP gain
DeFries et al. 1989
Terrestrial Carbon Sources and Sinks [1990’s]
Pg C/yr
- 0.8
+ 0.6
- 1.7
+ 0.3
+ 0.7
IPCC 2001
Schimel 2001
Terrestrial Carbon Sources and Sinks [1990’s]
Pg C/yr
- 0.8
- 0.6
- 1.7
- 0.3
- 0.7
IPCC 2001
Schimel 2001
Current Terrestrial Sinks
Potential Driving Mechanisms
•
•
•
•
CO2 fertilization
Nitrogen fertilization
Land Use/Cover
Climate change
Regrowth of previously harvested forests
Change
– Reforestation / Afforestation
• Regrowth of previously disturbed forests
– Fire, wind, insects
•
•
•
•
•
Fire suppression
Decreased deforestation
Improved agriculture
Sediment burial
Future: Terrestrial Carbon Management (e.g., Kyoto)
Canadell 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue
Carbon Stocks in Live Forest Vegetation [1950-1995]
Live Vegetation (Pg C)
30
Asian Russia
25
20
15
Canada
Coterminous US
10
Forest Expansion
• Cropland abandonment
• Declining logging
• Reforestation
Euro Russia
5
0
Europe
1950
1960
China
1970 1980 1990 2000
Goodale et al 2002
Changes in Forest Carbon in China [1949-1998]
Between 1940’s and 70’s,
C storage declined by 0.68 Pg C due to
forest exploitation policies
From late 1970’s to present,
C storage has increased by 0.4 Pg C
due to policies of protection and
timber production
[+ 0.021 Pg C/yr]
Fang et al. 2001
0.38 Pg C comes from planted forests
Land Use Change and C loss in NE China [1992-2000]
1992
1996
2000
50
25
0
1992
1996
City, resident and construction
land
Water
Grassland
-150
Others woodland
-125
Scrubs and dwarf woodland
-100
Forest
-75
Dryland
-50
Paddy land
-25
Decrease forest area: 2.76104km2
Increase urban area: 2.32104km2
Potential max. loss of 273.2 Tg C
2000
Vegetation
Soil
-175
Wang 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue
Net C Gain from Managed Forests in Japan [2000-2015]
70-yr Rotation
Sink: 16 MtC/yr
4% FF emissions
Alexandrove & Yamagata 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue
Land use change and carbon cycle in arid and semi-arid lands of east and
central Asia - Chuluun
Changes in annual fluxes of CO2 in South Korea from 1990 to 1997:
contributions of energy consumption, land-use change, and forest regrowth
– Dowon
Carbon Emissions and Sinks from and into Agro-Ecosystems– Lind Erda
Carbon balance along Northeast China Transect (NECT-IGBP Transect).
Guangsheng Zhou
Carbon stock assessment for a forest-to-coffee conversion landscape in
Sumber-Jaya (Lampung, Indonesia): from allometric equations to land use
change analysis. Meine van Noordwijk.
Hidden Deforestation: Carbon Implications
Forest
Impoverishment:
Landsat TM
image, Paragom.,1991,
classified as forest and non-forest
[Brazilian Government reporting
-methodology]
Surface–fires
62% Forest
(could be responsible for doubling
C emissions during El Nino years)
Same image,
- Logging
classified
after ranch owners interviews:
(4-7%
ofthe
thatabove
of forest
only
1/10 of
forestconversion)
was
classified as undisturbed forest
by human practices – 6.2% Forest
Nepstad et al. 1999
Soil Carbon Responses to various Land Use Changes
Global - Meta-analyses of 71 studies
Guo and Gifford 2002
GCTE
Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems [gcte.org]
Contemporary and Future Terrestrial
Carbon Sources and Sinks
Global Change Effect s on Vegetation
and Disturbance Regimes
Global Change, Agroecological
Processes and Production Systems
Changing Biodiversity and its
Consequences on Ecosystem
Functioning