Transcript Libraries 2020 Imagining the library of the (not too distant) future Kristen Purcell, Ph.D. Associate Director, Research Pew Internet Project SUNY Library Association Annual Conference June 7, 2012

Libraries 2020
Imagining the library of the
(not too distant) future
Kristen Purcell, Ph.D.
Associate Director, Research
Pew Internet Project
SUNY Library Association
Annual Conference
June 7, 2012
• Part of the Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan “fact tank” based
in Washington, DC
• PRC’s mission is to provide high quality, objective data to thought
leaders and policymakers
• Data for this talk is from nationally representative telephone
surveys of U.S. adults and teens (on landlines and cell phones)
• Presentation slides and all data are available at pewinternet.org
About our libraries research…
• Study the changing role of public libraries and library users in
the digital age
• Funded by a three-year, $1.4 million grant from the Bill and
Melinda Gates Foundation
• More information available at libraries.pewinternet.org
The Internet:
Then and Now
Internet Use in the U.S. in 2000
46% of US adults used the internet
5% had home broadband connections
53% owned a cell phone
0% connected to internet wirelessly
0% used social network sites
_________________________
Information flowed mainly one way
Information consumption was a
stationary activity
Slow, stationary connections
built around a desktop
computer
The Internet in 2012
82% of US adults use the internet
2/3 have broadband at home
88% have a cell phone; 46% are
smartphone users
19% have a tablet computer
19% have an e-reader
2/3 are wireless internet users
65% of online adults use SNS
Mobile devices have
fundamentally changed the
relationship between
information, time and space
Information is now
portable, participatory, and
personal
The Very Nature of Information Has Changed
Information
was…
Information
is…
Scarce
All around us
Expensive
Cheap or free
Shaped and controlled
by elites
Shaped and controlled by
consumers and networks
Designed for one-way,
mass consumption
Designed for sharing,
participation and feedback
Slow moving
Immediate
External to our worlds
Embedded in our worlds
Information is Woven Into Our Lives
Mobile is the needle, Social Networks are the thread
Mobile…
Social Networks…
Moves information
with us
Surround us with
information through our
many connections
Makes information
accessible ANYTIME
and ANYWHERE
Puts information at
our fingertips
Magnifies the demand
for timely information
Makes information
location-sensitive
Bring us information
from multiple, varied
sources
Provide instant feedback,
meaning and context
Allow us to shape and
create information
ourselves and amplify
others’ messages
GADGETS
Adult gadget ownership over time (2006-2012)
% of American adults age 18+ who own each device
Source: Pew Internet surveys, 2006-2012
Gadget ownership snapshot for adults age 18+
% of American adults age 18+ who own each device
Subset
of cell
phones
Source: The Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project surveys.
Mobile is the Needle: 88% of US Adults Have a Cell Phone
% in each age group who have a cell phone
46% of US adults now
own SMARTPHONES,
up from 35% in
Spring 2011
Highest rates among:
18-24 year-olds (67%)
25-34 year-olds (71%)
23% of all teens age 1217 have a smartphone
Teen data July 2011
Adult data Feb 2012
31% of 14-17 year-olds
have a smartphone,
compared with just 8% of
12-13 year-olds
Smartphone ownership by age & income/education
% of adults within each group who own a smartphone (for example, 58% of 18-29 year olds with a household income of less
than $30,000 per year are smartphone owners)
18-29
(n=336)
30-49
(n=601)
50-64
(n=639)
65+
(n=626)
66%
59%
34%
13%
Less than $30,000
58
42
16
5
$30,000 or more
72
69
44
27
High school grad or less
63
43
22
8
Some college or college graduate
70
71
44
20
All adults
Annual Household Income
Educational Attainment
Source: Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project January 20-February 19, 2012 tracking survey. N=2,253 adults age 18 and older,
including 901 interviews conducted on respondent’s cell phone. Interviews conducted in both English and Spanish.
Overall, if you had to use one single word to describe how you feel about
your cell phone, what would that one word be?
Mobile is the Needle
That Weaves Information Throughout Our World
% of US adult cell owners who use their phones to…
Cell Phone Activities by Race/Ethnicity
% of adult cell phone owners age 18+ within each group who do the following activities with their cell phone
White, nonHispanic
(n=1343)
Black, nonHispanic
(n=232)
Hispanic
(n=196)
Send or receive text messages
Take a picture
Access the internet
Send a photo or video to someone
Send or receive email
Download an app
Play a game
Play music
Record a video
Access a social networking site
Watch a video
Post a photo or video online
70
71
39
52
34
28
31
27
30
25
21
18
76
70
56*
58
46*
36*
43*
45*
41*
39*
33*
30*
83*
79*
51*
61*
43*
36*
40*
47*
42*
35*
39*
28*
Check bank balance or do online banking
15
27*
25*
*indicates statistically significant differences compared with whites.
Source: The Pew Research Center's Internet & American Life Project, April 26 – May 22, 2011 Spring Tracking Survey. n=2,277 adults ages 18
and older, including 755 cell phone interviews. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish.
How Phones Function In Our Lives
% of US adult cell owners who had done each of the following in the 30 days prior to the survey…
Using Phones for Real-Time Information
% of cell owners in each age group who have performed these real-time activities in the previous 30 days
60%
45
Coordinate a gathering
27
23
39
Solve an unexpected problem
49%
26
15
Decide whether or not to visit a
business, such as restaurant
Look up something to settle an
argument
37
43%
18
18-29
12
45%
31
30-49
15
4
29
Look up sports score
33%
50-64
14
5
Get up-to-the minute traffic or
public transit info
31%
23
65+
11
4
21%
Get help in an emergency situation
21
18
16
0%
20%
40%
60%
Source: Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Mobile Survey, March 15-April 3, 2012.
80%
100%
Gadgets Teens Use to Access the Internet
In the last 30 days, have you used the internet on ____?
% of teens age 12-17 who used this gadget in past 30 days to access the internet
Desktop or laptop
computer
88%
Cell phone
49
Mp3 player or iPod
34
Game console
30
Tablet computer or iPad
16
0
20
40
60
80
100
Source: The Pew Research Center's Internet & American Life Project, April 19 – July 14, 2011 Teen Survey. n=799 teens 12-17 and a parent or
guardian. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish, by landline and cell phone, and included an oversample of minority families.
Apps: From Superhighway to Bypass
One in three US adults download apps to a cell phone or tablet computer
Apps provide direct connections to information
% of app downloaders who have downloaded each type of app…
App downloading
is highest among
young adults age 18-29
Based on August 2011 Pew Internet Tracking Survey
Apps, Geolocation and Augmented Reality
Tablet and E-reader Use is on the Rise
•
29% of adults own a specialized device for
e-reading (either a tablet or an e-reader)
– 19% of adults own an e-book reader
– 19% of adults own a tablet computer
•
E-book reader and tablet ownership are
strongly correlated with income and
education, and these devices are most
popular with adults under age 50
•
Women are more likely than men to own ereaders, and parents are more likely than
non-parents to own tablets
What Kind of e-Reader Do You Own?
Percent of
e-reader owners
age 18+
who own each
type of e-book
reader
What is the main reason you do not currently
have an e-reader?
Just don't need one/don’t want one
Cost/can’t afford it
Prefer books/print
Don’t read/no time to read
Don’t know what an e-reader is
Don’t want to learn tech/don’t know how to use it
Have enough other devices/use other devices
Plan to get one/waiting for better features
Have iPad/tablet
Lack of time in general
I’m too old
Vision/health problems
Other
Don’t know/refused
24%
19
16
10
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
<1
3
5
Dec. 2011 results are from a survey of 2,986 people age 16 and older conducted November 16December 21, 2011 conducted in English and Spanish on landline and cell phones. The margin of
error is +/- 2 percentage points. N for non-owners of e-reading devices=2,290.
% of Americans
age 16+
who do not own
an e-book
reader who cite
each reason
85% of those
who do not own
an e-book
reader have no
plans to
purchase one
What Kind of Tablet Computer Do You Own?
Percent of
tablet owners
age 18+
who own each
type of tablet
computer
What is the main reason you do not currently
have a tablet computer?
Just don't need one/don’t want one
Cost/can’t afford it
Have enough devices/happy with current devices
Don’t want to learn tech/don’t know how to use it
Don’t know what a tablet computer is
Plan to get one/waiting for better features
I’m too old
Lack of time in general
Don’t read/no time to read
Vision/health problems
Prefer books/print
Prefer to use library
Other
Don’t know/refused
35%
25
20
7
2
2
2
1
<1
<1
<1
<1
2
3
Dec. 2011 results are from a survey of 2,986 people age 16 and older conducted November 16December 21, 2011 conducted in English and Spanish on landline and cell phones. The margin of error
is +/- 2 percentage points. N for non-owners of tablet computers=2,290.
% of Americans
age 16+
who do not own
a tablet
computer who
cite each reason
81% of those
who do not own
a tablet
computer have
no plans to
purchase one
SOCIAL NETWORKS =
NETWORKED INDIVIDUALS, NETWORKED INFORMATION
Social Networks are the Threads That Connect Us
65% of online adults use
social networking sites
Consistent rates across gender,
race/ethnicity, and income groups
Why Adults 18+ Use Social Networks
Social Networks and Social Cohesion
A Pew study finds that
contrary to fears the
internet isolates
people...
• Facebook users
are more trusting
than other adults
• Facebook users
have more close
relationships
• Facebook users
get more social
support than
other adults
For networked individuals, information is embedded
and ambient
Teens and Social Media Use
Teen social network and Twitter use – trends over time
Based on teen internet users
100%
80%
80%
60%
73%
55%
60%
Use online
social
networking
sites
65%
40%
Use Twitter
16%
20%
8%
0%
Nov 2006
Nov 2007
Feb 2008
Sept 2009
July 2011
Source: The Pew Research Center Internet & American Life Project Teen & Parent surveys.
76% of ALL Teens Are Social Media Users
Facebook is the dominant social
media site among teens
Girls are twice as likely to use
Twitter as boys
•
93% of teen social media users
have a Facebook account
•
•
MySpace ranks a distant second
at 24%
The percent of teens who use
social network sites almost
doubles between ages 12 and 13
•
45% of online 12-year-olds use
social network sites
•
That jumps to 82% among 13year-old internet users
22% of online girls use Twitter v.
10% of online boys
Black teens are 3X as likely to be
Twitter users as whites or Latinos
•
Among online teens, 34% of
black teens use Twitter v. 11% of
white and 13% of Latino teens
Twitter use is especially low among
younger boys
•
2% of online boys ages 12-13 use
Twitter
THEY AGREE ON SOMETHING!
Adults and Teens Use the Same Social Media Sites
Other than LinkedIn, teens and adults maintain online social
media accounts in the same places
Based on teens/adults who use social network site(s) and/or Twitter
93%*
87%
Facebook
24%*
MySpace
14%
12%
10%
Twitter
LinkedIn
Teens
Adults
0%
11%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Source: Teen data is from the Pew Research Center's Internet & American Life Teen-Parent survey, April 19-July 14, 2011. N=799 for teens
12-17 and parents, including oversample of minority families. Adult data is from Pew Internet’s August Tracking survey, July 25-August 26,
2011. Nationally representative, n=2260 adults 18+, includes cell phone & Spanish language interviews.
* indicates a statistically significant difference between age groups.
87% of parents of
teens 12-17 use
the internet
67% of parents of
teens use social
media sites
39% of parents
have friended
their teenager on
a social network
site
Given So Many Choices, How do Teens Communicate?
The volume of
teen texting has
risen from
50 texts a day
in 2009 to
60 texts a day
in 2012
for the median
teen texter
Just 6% of teens
use email daily,
while 39% say
they never use
email
The Age of Search
Search and Information Gathering
Over time, search has remained one of the most popular internet activities
% of adult internet users who engage in each activity online
Source: The Pew Research Center's Internet & American Life Project tracking surveys, 2002-2012. Social network site use not tracked
prior to February, 2005. “Get news online” and “buy a product online” have not yet been asked in 2012.
Who Uses Search?
All online adults
Race/Ethnicity
White
African American
Hispanic
Age
18-29
30-49
50-64
65+
Education
Some high school
High school
Some college
College graduate
Household income
< $30,000
$30,000 - $49,999
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000+
91%
93*
89*
79
96*
91
92
80
78
88*
94*
95*
84
93*
97*
95*
*Denotes statistically significant difference with other rows in that category
Source: Pew Research Center's Internet & American Life Project Tracking Survey, Jan 20-Feb 19,
2012. N=2,253 adults age 18 and older. Interviews conducted in English and Spanish.
% of online adults in each
group who use search engines
The vast majority
of internet users are
search users, but
some demographic
groups are more likely
than others to
use search….
Young adults have
been raised on search
and are most likely to
use it
Internet users are turning to search more frequently
% of adult search users who use a search engine….
Daily
Daily use of search
engines is most common
among younger, more
educated and more
affluent internet users
60% of internet users age
18-49 are daily search
users v. 40% of those 50+
Source: The Pew Research Center's Internet & American Life Project Tracking Survey, Jan 20-Feb 19, 2012.
N=2,253 adults, age 18 and older. Interviews conducted in English and Spanish.
An asterisk (*) indicates a significant difference across years at the .95 confidence level.
70% of internet users
who have graduated from
college are daily search
users v. 36% of those
who have never been
to college
Most adult search users have faith in the
fairness and accuracy of results
In general, do you think Internet search engines are a FAIR and UNBIASED source of information, or do you
think search engines are NOT a fair and unbiased source?
In general, how much of the information you find using search engines do you think is ACCURATE or
TRUSTWORTHY?
Source: The Pew Research Center's Internet & American Life Project Winter 2012 Tracking Survey, January 20-February 19, 2012. N=2,253
adults, age 18 and older, including 901 cell phone interviews. Interviews conducted in English and Spanish.
Who has the most faith in the fairness and accuracy
of search results?
Younger search engine users have the most
faith in the search results they get
72% of 18-29 year-olds say that search
engines are a fair and unbiased source, v.
65% of 30-49 year-olds,
67% of 50-64 year-olds,
54% of search users age 65+
Women are slightly more likely than men
(76% v. 69%) to say all or most of their search
results are accurate and trustworthy
Search users living in the highest income
households are also more likely than others
to believe that all or most of their search
results can be trusted
Most adult search engine users say the relevance and quality of
results are improving over time
Overall, in your experience, are search engine results getting MORE relevant and useful over time, LESS relevant
and useful, or have you not seen any real difference over time?
Overall, in your experience, is the QUALITY of the information you get using search engines getting BETTER over
time, WORSE over time, or have you not seen any real difference?
Source: The Pew Research Center's Internet & American Life Project Winter 2012 Tracking Survey, January 20-February 19, 2012. N=2,253 adults, age 18 and
older, including 901 cell phone interviews. Interviews conducted in English and Spanish.
READING IN AMERICA
Books
or
Nooks?
Library Research Timeline…Stage I (August 2011-July 2012)
• Focus on libraries and new technologies
• The Rise of E-Reading - Published
– Special focus on reading habits of e-reader and tablet
owners
• E-books and libraries - June 2012
– Stories/quotes from library staff and patrons
• Library use in different community types (forthcoming)
• The habits of younger library users (forthcoming)
First report: The rise of e-reading
21% of American adults read an
e-book in the last year
68% read a print book
11% listened to an audiobook
Overall, just 19% of adults say they
read NO books in the past year,
in any format
Book reading by age
% of each age group who have read a book in whole or in part in the past 12 months
Source: Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Reading Habits Survey, November 16-December 21, 2011. N=2,986
respondents age 16 and older. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish and on landline and cells. The margin of error
for the sample is +/- 2 percentage points.
% of adult book readers (age 18+) using this format on an average
as offormat
June 2010used
and December
2011
Theday,
book
by readers
on any given day
shifting over time
% of adult book readers (age 18+) who use each of these formats on an average day
Source: Pew Research Center Surveys.
is
Who are the readers behind the screens?
Readers of e-books are more likely
than other readers to be:
• Under age 50
• College educated
• Living in households earning $50K+
Other key characteristics:
• They read more books, more often,
and for a wider range of reasons
• More likely to buy than borrow
On what gadgets do e-readers read their books?
% of e-book readers age 16 and older who read e-books on each type of device
Which is better – print or e-book?
Asked of those16+ who have read both e-books and print books in last 12 months
When you want to read a particular e-book, where
do you look first?
% of e-book readers age 16+ who look first to each source
Some
Takeaways
for
Libraries
Additional takeaways for librarians
• The gadget doesn’t make the reader,
but it may change the reader
• 41% of tablet owners and 35% of ereader owners said they are reading
more since the advent of e-content
• A majority of print readers (54%) and
e-book readers (61%) prefer to
purchase their own copies of books
• Most audiobook listeners (61%)
prefer to borrow their audiobooks
Imagining the Library of the
Not-Too-Distant Future
Functions: Helping Information Consumers with the “Three V’s”
How do I separate
the wheat from the
chaff to find what’s
useful TO ME?
Volume
Volume
Velocity
70% of adults say they
are overwhelmed by
the amount of
information available
today
How do I keep up
with the constant
stream of
information in the
world today?
Valence/Relevance
The Operating System of the New Learning Environment
Anywhere
Any Time
Any Device
Real time, easily accessed, easily
shared and synched information
The Role(s) of the Librarian in the Library
of the Not-Too-Distant Future
Sentries
Evaluators
Filters
Certifiers
identifying and locating the highest quality information
The Role(s) of the Librarian in the Library
of the Not-Too-Distant Future
Aggregator/
Synthesizer
Organizer
Network Node
Facilitator
helping patrons put information in action
The Library of the
Not-Too-Distant Future
From ALA:
Confronting the Future
Strategic Visions for
the 21st Century
Public Library
Available at
www.ala.org
Library Research Timeline…Stage II (May-November 2012)
•
Focus on the changing world of library services
•
The evolving role of libraries in communities
•
The role of libraries in the lives of special populations
Library Research Timeline…Stage III (Sept 2012–April 2013)
•
Library User Typology
•
An updated, in-depth portrait of young library users
All data available at:
pewinternet.org
libraries.pewinternet.org
Kristen Purcell, Ph.D.
Associate Director, Research
Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project
[email protected]
Twitter:
@pewinternet
@kristenpurcell