Transcript Tufts Research Day on Sustainability 3 May 2011 Africa’s Turnaround Towards Sustainable Growth in African Agriculture Will Masters Professor of Food Policy http://nutrition.tufts.edu http://sites.tufts.edu/willmasters.

Tufts Research Day on Sustainability
3 May 2011
Africa’s Turnaround
Towards Sustainable Growth in African Agriculture
Will Masters
Professor of Food Policy
http://nutrition.tufts.edu
http://sites.tufts.edu/willmasters
How much longer?
Cartoon (c) 2002, reproduced with permission by Nicholson from "The Australian" newspaper: www.nicholsoncartoons.com.au
Extreme poverty is being eradicated
rapidly in East Asia, slowly in South Asia,
and only recently in Africa
Source: Author’s calculation from World Bank (2011), PovcalNet (http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/),
updated 11 April 2011. Estimates are based on over 700 household surveys from more than 120 countries,
and refer to per-capita expenditure at purchasing-power parity prices for 2005.
Ultra poverty is already rare in Asia,
and remains widespread
only in Africa
Source: Author’s calculation from World Bank (2011), PovcalNet (http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/),
updated 11 April 2011. Estimates are based on over 700 household surveys from more than 120 countries,
and refer to per-capita expenditure at purchasing-power parity prices for 2005.
Africa now has 1/8th of the world’s people,
over 1/4 of the extreme poor,
and 2/3 of the ultra-poor
Source: Author’s calculation from World Bank (2011), PovcalNet (http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/),
updated 11 April 2011. Estimates are based on over 700 household surveys from more than 120 countries,
and refer to per-capita expenditure at purchasing-power parity prices for 2005.
An underlying cause of Africa’s
impoverishment in the 1970s-1990s
was a sharp fall in land area per farmer
Land available per farm household (hectares)
Reprinted from Robert Eastwood, Michael Lipton and Andrew Newell (2010), “Farm Size”, chapter 65 in Prabhu
Pingali and Robert Evenson, eds., Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Volume 4, Pages 3323-3397. Elsevier.
Falling land per farmer is due to Africa’s fast
(but now slowing) rural population growth
Africa has long had the world’s fastest growing
rural and urban population!
Growth rates by region, 1950-2030
Rural
Urban
Urbanpopulation
population growth (decade averages), 1950-2030
Ruralpopulation
population growth (decade averages), 1950-2030
2.5%
6.0%
2.0%
5.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
4.0%
SS Africa
SS Africa
S Asia
S Asia
3.0%
2.0%
SE Asia
1.0%
SE Asia
Rest of World
Rest of
0.0%
World
Source: Calculated from FAOStat (downloaded 17 March 2009). Population estimates and projections
are based on UN Population Projections (2006 revision) and UN Urbanization Prospects (2001 revision).
Africa’s green revolution has just begun
USDA estimates of average cereal grain yields (mt/ha), 1960-2010
4.5
4.0
Rest-of-World
World
3.5
Southeast Asia
3.0
South Asia
2.5
Sub-Saharan Africa
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Source: Calculated from USDA , PS&D data (www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline), downloaded 7 Nov 2010. Results shown are each
region’s total production per harvested area in barley, corn, millet, mixed grains, oats, rice, rye, sorghum and wheat.
Appropriate new technologies have only
recently been developed and disseminated
Source: Reprinted from W.A. Masters, “Paying for Prosperity: How and Why to Invest in Agricultural
Research and Development in Africa” (2005), Journal of International Affairs, 58(2): 35-64.
US aid for agriculture has begun to recover,
after 20 years of decline to near zero
Source: Author's calculations from OECD (2011), Official Bilateral
Commitments by Sector, updated 6 April 2011 (http://stats.oecd.org/qwids).
In Africa, US agricultural assistance
had been much less than US food aid
Source: Author's calculations from OECD (2011), Official Bilateral Commitments by Purpose,
updated 12 Jan. 2011 (http://stats.oecd.org). Agriculture includes forestry and fishing.
Conclusions:
Towards sustainable growth
in African agriculture
• African poverty worsened from 1980 through 2000,
but is now improving
– A major underlying cause is land available per farmer, driven
down by rural population growth which is now slowing
– Appropriate new farm technologies are finally arriving, so
crop yields, output and input use are now rising
• U.S. agricultural assistance had shrunk to near zero,
but is now being restored
– Aid for farm productivity was key to cutting Asian poverty,
then seen as no longer needed in the 1980s and 1990s;
– Africa is now poised for rapid uptake and sustained growth
Extra slides
Extreme poverty is being eradicated
World Bank estimates of global poverty, 1981-2005
Source: Author’s calculation from World Bank (2011), PovcalNet (http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/),
updated 11 April 2011. Estimates are based on over 700 household surveys from more than 120 countries,
and refer to per-capita expenditure at purchasing-power parity prices for 2005.
Urbanization eventually employs all new
workers so land per farmer can rise
Billions
10
World (total)
2.0
Sub-Saharan Africa
1.8
8
Total
1.6
Total
7
Urban
1.4
Urban
1.2
2010
Rural
Source: Calculated from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2009 Revision ,
released April 2010 at http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup. Downloaded 7 Nov. 2010.
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
1990
1970
0.0
2050
0
2040
0.2
2030
1
2020
0.4
2000
2
1990
0.6
1980
3
1970
0.8
1960
4
1950
2010
1.0
1960
Rural
5
1950
6
1980
9
2010
Billions
…in Africa that won’t happen
until the 2050s
Population by principal residence, 1950-2050
African agriculture is really distinctive
Source: Reprinted from W.A. Masters, “Paying for Prosperity: How and Why to Invest in Agricultural
Research and Development in Africa” (2005), Journal of International Affairs, 58(2): 35-64.
Foreign aid for agriculture has just begun to
recover after being sharply cut in 1985-99
Source: Author's calculations from OECD (2011), Official Bilateral
Commitments by Sector, updated 6 April 2011 (http://stats.oecd.org/qwids).
The most recent data show continued
poverty reduction across Asia,
but not in all countries
Source: Author’s calculation from World Bank (2011), PovcalNet (http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/),
updated 11 April 2011. Estimates are based on over 700 household surveys from more than 120 countries,
and refer to per-capita expenditure at purchasing-power parity prices for 2005.
Poverty rates in Africa
have also begun to fall,
but not in all countries
Source: Author’s calculation from World Bank (2011), PovcalNet (http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/),
updated 11 April 2011. Estimates are based on over 700 household surveys from more than 120 countries,
and refer to per-capita expenditure at purchasing-power parity prices for 2005.