Children lost ground during the crisis years of transition; they are now at risk of losing out in the recovery… WHY? Gordon Alexander, Senior.
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Children lost ground during the crisis years of transition; they are now at risk of losing out in the recovery… WHY? Gordon Alexander, Senior Economic and Social Policy Advisor CEE/CIS Region Global Child Poverty Study Meeting, Tashkent April 2-4 2008 Main Message: A new generation of evidence-based policy for children • data from people – and children • from ‘inputs’ to ‘outcomes’ • focus on ‘performance gaps’ • being clear on Hypothesis : what are the policy changes that you need evidence to support? UNICEF For first time in more than a decade, resources are available • A ‘window of opportunity’ over the next 5-8 years • A 3rd wave of reforms is underway • but there are risks – – – – UNICEF Spending will be on infrastructure Policies remain sectoral Political support for reform falters External conditions change 4 Parts to Presentation • Some Building Blocks • Where are we now ? • Big Issues (added value of study?) • What is driving policy? UNICEF Building Blocks 1 Child Well-being is multi-dimensional – and inter-connected Children’s life chances – powerfully influenced by access to and quality of services Some periods/transitions esp critical (early years of life, from school to job…) Children’s experiences at home, with friends and in neighbourhood Importance of children’s perspectives UNICEF Building Blocks 2 Systems themselves are often the source of failures for children • Systems that had their logic in past - no longer respond to current or emerging challenges – – – • Certain groups of children always excluded ‘Intention’ may well be good but outcomes for children poor Often unable to monitor effect of their policies Reform can produce exclusion – – – – UNICEF ‘gaps’ from withdrawal of state models imported from outside, not fully contextualised incomplete reform old models restored 4 Principles from CRC to shape and guide response ‘the best interests of the child’ non-discrimination participation resources ‘to the fullest extent possible’ UNICEF A Story of Crisis and Economic Re-bound GDP per capita CEE/CIS low point early-mid 90s, upward trend since ’98-99. Similar pattern of recovery but increasingly divergent paths… Albania 150 GDP per capita index (1989 =100) Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Bulgaria 100 Croatia FYR Macedonia Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan 50 Moldova Romania Russia Tajikistan 0 UNICEF 04 20 03 20 02 20 01 20 00 20 99 19 98 19 97 19 96 19 95 19 94 19 93 19 92 19 91 19 90 19 19 89 Turkmenistan Ukraine Uzbekistan Where are we now? Measuring vs 7 dimensions of child well-being Material situation Housing Health Education Peer relationships Family forms and care Risk and Safety UNICEF Progress at the top (laws, policies…) but less at the bottom (implementation) • Vulnerability still High • Rise in disparities • Erosion of social services • New dimensions – migration, decentralisation, HIV/AIDS UNICEF Performance Gap 1 Poverty is coming down…. 100% 90% Non-Poor: Above $ 4.30 a Day 80% 215.1 264.2 70% 329.2 60% 395.6 Vulnerable: Above $ 2.15 and Below $ 4.30 a Day 50% 40% 160.7 30% 153.3 20% 10% 0% 108.8 46.0 UNICEF 102.0 61.2 40.0 18.4 Around 1990 Poor: Below $ 2.15 a Day Around 1998-99 Around 2002-3 By 2007 Source : World Bank 2005 But not all children are benefitting from economic growth GDP and public care of children: 1 ,2 0 0 A v e ra g e G D P p e r c a p ita (in c u rre n t P P P $) GDP F o rm a l c a re 6 ,0 0 0 1 ,1 0 0 5 ,0 0 0 1 ,0 0 0 4 ,0 0 0 900 3 ,0 0 0 800 2 ,0 0 0 700 1 ,0 0 0 600 0 500 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 UNICEF Source: TransMonee. Analysis based on complete trend data from 16 countries. F o rm a l c a re (ra te p e r 1 0 0 ,0 0 0 ) 7 ,0 0 0 75 Performance Gap 2: Life Expectancy (2004) Slovenia Albania Croatia Poland Uzbekistan Armenia Azerbaijan 70 Czech Republic Slovakia Bulgaria Georgia Hungary Romania Latvia Lithuania Estonia 65 Turkmenistan Moldova Kyrgyzstan Belarus Ukraine 60 Kazakhstan Russia 0 UNICEF 5000 10000 15000 20000 GDP per capita PPP$ Fitted values Source: TRANSMONEE Performance Gap 3 : Under 5yr Mortality 30 Kyrgyzstan 25 Georgia 20 Uzbekistan Romania 15 Kazakhstan Moldova Turkmenistan Azerbaijan FYR Macedonia Bulgaria Russia Albania Armenia Ukraine 10 Latvia Lithuania Poland Croatia Slovakia Estonia 5 Belarus Bosnia-Herzegovina Hungary Czech R. Slo 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 GDP per capita PPP$, in 2004 UNICEF Fitted values Source: TRANSMONEE New barriers for the poor Informal Payments During Most Recent Consultation 65 Georgia 56 Armenia 47 Republic of Moldova 42 Kyrgyzstan 40 Kazakhstan 28 Ukraine 19 Russian Federation 8 Belarus 0 UNICEF 10 20 40 30 50 60 70 % Source: Balabanova 2004 Performance Gap 4 : Education Upper Secondary Education enrolment 15-18yrs (%) Poland 100 Hungary Czech Republic Bulgaria Croatia Slovakia 80 Russia Belarus Uzbekistan Lithuania Romania FYR Macedonia Latvia Kazakhstan 60 Ukraine Albania Bosnia-Herzegovina 40 Georgia Armenia Azerbaijan Kyrgyzstan Moldova 20 Tajikistan Turkmenistan UNICEF 0 5000 10000 Gdp per capita PPP, 2004 15000 20000 Source: TRANSMONEE UNICEF O EC rk ey Ru ss Bu ia lg ar ia Se rb ia Ro m M on ania te ne gr Az o er b Ky aija n rg yz st an D ia UK ni a nd ov en Tu Sl to nl a Es Fi Quality of Education PISA 2006 – Reading Scores 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Performance Gap 5 : Pre-Primary enrolment (2004) Hungary Czech Republic 80 Latvia Slovenia Bulgaria Romania Russia Slovakia 60 Moldova Ukraine % Lithuania Poland 40 Croatia Albania Armenia Georgia 20 Azerbaijan Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Kazakhstan Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan FYR Macedonia UNICEF 0 5000 10000 GDP per capita PPP 15000 20000 Source: TRANSMONEE Access to Pre-School - by Income Quintile 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Top quintile Be la ru s M on te ne gr o & Uk ra in e Al ba ni a eo rg ia G FY R a gy st an M ac ed on i Se rb ia UNICEF Ky r sta n Bottom quintile Ta ji k i % Figure 3.11: Attendance rate, 3-4 year olds, by household consumption level, selected countries, 2005 Source: UNICEF 2007 Performance Gap 6: Stunting Children < 5yrs by household assets 35.0 30.0 Poorest w ealth index Richest w ealth index 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 Be la M ru on s te ne gr o Se rb Bo sn ia ia & H . M ol do M va ac ed on ia G eo rg Ar ia m en Ka ia za kh Ky stan rg y Tu z st an rk m en ist U an zb ek is ta Az n er ba ij a n Al ba n Ta i a ji k is ta n 0.0 UNICEF Source: MICS 2006 UNICEF M la on rus te ne R gro om Bo an sn ia ia & M H. o M ldo ac v ed a on G ia eo rg ia Tu rk Ar ey Ka me za nia kh Ky sta n Tu rgy rk zs t m en an U ista zb n ek i Az sta er n ba ija Al n ba Ta nia jik is ta n Be % Stunting by maternal education Low maternal education High maternal education 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Source: MICS 2006 Performance Gap 7 : Young People 120 Mortality Rates 15-19yrs Russia 100 Kazakhstan 80 Turkmenistan Lithuania Ukraine Belarus Estonia Latvia 60 Moldova Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Romania 40 Albania Azerbaijan Georgia Bulgaria Croatia Poland FYR Macedonia Hungary Bosnia-Herzegovina 20 Armenia Slovakia Slovenia Czech Republic 0 UNICEF 5000 Fitted values 10000 GDP Per Capita $ PPP 15000 20000 Source: TRANSMONEE An epidemic with its roots in poverty Incidence of HIV infections Source: EuroHIV 2007 UNICEF Why did children lose out in the first phase of transition? • Pre-occupation economic and political stabilisation • Fiscal squeeze • Lack of institutional structures that protected their interests • Reform of areas that mattered was politically painful • Past practices … UNICEF Long period of underinvestment in Health Government Expenditure on Health as % GDP CIS Countries 1996-2006 7.00 Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan 6.00 % GDP Tajikistan 5.00 Turkmenistan 4.00 Uzbekistan 3.00 Armenia 2.00 Azerbaijan 1.00 Georgia Ukraine 0.00 1996 UNICEF 1998 2000 2002 2004 Russian Federation Republic of M oldova Source: WHO database 2008 Belarus A more mixed picture on Education 6 Government Expenditures on Education/GDP (%) 2004 Ukraine Belarus Hungary Poland 5 Moldova Czech Republic 4 Bulgaria Kyrgyzstan Azerbaijan 3 Albania Georgia Tajikistan FYR Macedonia Kazakhstan 2 Armenia 0 UNICEF 5000 10000 15000 20000 GDP per capita PPP$, 2004 Fitted values Source: TRANSMONEE Yet these are the areas of public demand for investment EBRD Life in Transition survey 2006 HEALTH PENSIONS HOUSING EDUCATION Health care Pensions UNICEF Other Education Housing Environment Public infrastructure What are the big issues? • Extent to which economic growth becomes pro-poor ? • What are ‘family-friendly’ social protection & labour market policies? • A package of interventions & services all children have access to? • Increased budgets not just going into buildings and roads? • Are Social Services responding to most vulnerable? • How is Decentralization best approached? UNICEF Lastly, Child well-being and GDP are not correlated: Policy Matters! UNICEF What does this mean for the study? • That need for a clear hypothesis • The link to policy - right from the start • How can the analysis support (and inform)reform? • Lead to a change in paradigm UNICEF