Transcript Budget08 Released on 17 November 2009 ppt version 11 May 2010 Carbon Budget GCP-Global Carbon Budget Consortium.

Budget08 Released on 17 November 2009
ppt version 11 May 2010
Carbon
Budget
2008
GCP-Global Carbon Budget Consortium
Artist Impression of the Human Perturbation of the Carbon Cycle
GCP-Carbon Budget2008 Consortium
Corinne Le Quéré
School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Michael R. Raupach
Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra,
Australia
Josep G. Canadell
Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra,
Australia
Gregg Marland
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak
Ridge, Tennessee, USA
Laurent Bopp
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 1572 CEACNRS-UVSQ, France
Philippe Ciais
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 1572 CEACNRS-UVSQ, France
Thomas J. Conway
NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Scott C. Doney
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA
Richard A. Feely
Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington, USA
Pru Foster
QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK
Pierre Friedlingstein
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, France
QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK
Kevin Gurney
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences and Department of Agronomy,
Purdue University, Indiana, USA
Richard A. Houghton
Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA
Joanna I. House
QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK
Chris Huntingford
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, UK
Peter E. Levy
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, UK
Mark R. Lomas
Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, U
Joseph Majkut
AOS Program, Princeton University, PO Box CN710, Princeton, New Jersey,
USA
Nicolas Metzl
LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Université Pierre et
Marie Curie, Paris, France
Jean P. Ometto
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São José dos Campos-SP, Brazil
Glen P. Peters
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway
Colin Prentice
QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK
James T. Randerson
Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine,
California, USA
Steven W. Running
School of Forestry/Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, University of
Montana, Missoula, USA
Jorge L. Sarmiento
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton,
USA
Ute Schuster
School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
Stephen Sitch
School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Taro Takahashi
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, New York, USA
Nicolas Viovy
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRSUVSQ, France
Guido R. van der Werf
Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University, Amsterdam 1081 HV,
Netherlands
F. Ian Woodward
Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield,
UK
Fossil Fuel Emissions and Cement Production
CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)
[1 Pg = 1 Petagram = 1 Billion metric tonnes = 1 Gigatonne = 1x1015g]
Growth rate:
9
3.4% per year
8
7
Growth rate:
2008:
Emissions: 8.7 PgC
Growth rate: 2.0%
1990 levels: +41%
1.0% per year
6
1990
2000
Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; CDIAC 2009
2010
2000-2008
Growth rate: 3.4%
CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)
CO2 Fossil Fuel Emissions
5
55%
Annex B (Kyoto Protocol)
4
Developed Nation
3
45%
Developing Nations
2
Non-Annex B
1990
2000
Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; CDIAC 2009
2010
2000
China
1600
(tons x 1,000,000)
Carbon Emissions per year
Fossil Fuel Emissions: Top Emitters (>4% of Total)
USA
1200
800
India
Russian Fed.
400
Japan
0
1990
03 05 07 99
Time
01 03
Global Carbon Project 2009; Data: Gregg Marland, CDIAC 2009
05
2008
UK
160
(tons x 1,000,000)
Carbon Emissions per year
Fossil Fuel Emissions: Profile Examples (1-4% of Total)
Canada
120
80
South Africa
Brazil
Australia
Spain
40
Denmark
0
1990
03
05
07
99
01
Time
Global Carbon Project 2009; Data: Gregg Marland, CDIAC 2009
03
05
2008
Balance of Emissions Embodied in Trade (BEET)
Year 2004
Warm colors  Net exporters of embodied carbon
Cold colors  Net importers of embodied carbon
Peters and Hertwich 2008, Environ, Sci & Tech., updated
MtC
BEET
Transport of Embodied Emissions
CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)
5
55%
5
Annex B
Annex B
4
4
Developed Nations
45%
3
Developing Nations
2
Non-Annex B
1990
2000
Developed Nations
3
2
2010 1990
Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: Peters & Hetwich
2009; Peters et al. 2008; Weber et al 2008; Guan et al. 2008; CDIAC 2009
25% of growth
Developing Nations
Non-Annex B
2000
2010
Cumulative Fraction of Total FF Emissions 2008
Number of
Countries
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
20
50 (2005)
100 (2005)
210
Country
China
USA
India
Russia
Japan
Germany
Canada
UK
South Korea
Iran
Poland
Belarus
Moldova
Gregg Marland, CDIAC 2009
Cumulative
Fraction
.232
.419
.477
.530
.573
.599
.617
.633
.652
.668
.800
.941
.992
1.00
3 countries
50% Global Emissions
10 countries
2/3 Global Emissions
Top 5 + EU
80% Global Emissions
CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)
Components of FF Emissions
4
40%
Oil
3
36%
Coal
2
Gas
1
Cement
0
1990
2000
Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
2010
Change in CO2 Emissions from Coal Emissions
2006-2008
CO2 emissions (TgC y-1)
300
250
90% of growth
200
150
100
50
0
China
India
US
-50
CDIAC 2009; Global Carbon Project 2009
World
Developed
countries
continue to
lead with the
highest
emission per
capita
1.3
(tC person-1 y-1)
Per Capita Emissions
Per Capita CO2 Emissions
1.2
1.1
1990
1995
2000
Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; CDIAC 2009
2005
2010
Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios
10
International Energy Agency
-1
Fossil Fuel Emission (GtC y )
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
9
Averages
A1B
8
A1FI
A1T
A2
7
B1
B2
6
Full range of IPCC individual scenarios
5
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS, updated; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; International Monetary Fund 2009
2015
Economic Crisis Impact on World GDP Growth
-1.1%
International Monetary Fund, October 2009
Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios
10
International Energy Agency
-1
Fossil Fuel Emission (GtC y )
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
9
Projection
Averages
A1B
8
A1FI
Projection 2009
Emissions: -2.8%
GDP:
-1.1%
C intensity: -1.7%
A1T
A2
7
B1
B2
6
Full range of IPCC individual scenarios
5
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS, updated; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; International Monetary Fund 2009
2015
Modified from Le Quéré et al. 2009
CO2 Emissions from Land Use Change
CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)
10
8
Fossil fuel
6
4
Land use change
2
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: CDIAC, FAO, Woods Hole Research Center 2009
2010
Net CO2 Emissions from LUC in Tropical Countries
2000-2005
CO2 emissions (TgC y-1)
600
500
400
60%
Brazil
Indonesia
300
200
Cameroon
Venezuela
Peru
Rep.Dem.Congo
100
Colombia
Nicaragua
India
Nigeria
Philippines
Nepal
0
4-2%
2-1%
RA Houghton 2009, unpublished; Based on FAO Global Forest Resource Assessment
<1%
Emissions from Land Use Change (2000-2005)
(Area)
Canadell et al. 2009, Biogeosciences
Fire Emissions from Deforestation Zones
Fire Emissions from
deforestation zones (TgC y-1)
Global Fire Emissions Dataset (vs2)
van der Werf et al. 2006, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, updated
CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)
Total Anthropogenic Emissions 2008
10
8.7
8
Fossil fuel
6
9.9 PgC
4
Land use change
2
1960
1970
1980
1990
1.2
2000
Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: CDIAC, FAO, Woods Hole Research Center 2009
2010
12% of total
anthropogenic
emissions
Atmospheric CO2 Concentration
Year 2008
385 ppm
38% above pre-industrial
Annual Mean Growth Rate
1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1
1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1
1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1
2000 - 2008: 1.9 ppm y-1
Data Source: Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway, NOAA/ESRL
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1.79
2.12
1.77
2.41
1.62
2.22
2.40
1.85
1.24
Key Diagnostic of the Carbon Cycle
CO2 Partitioning (PgC y-1)
Evolution of the fraction of total emissions that remain in the atmosphere
10
Total
CO2 emissions
8
6
Atmosphere
4
2
1960
1970
1980
1990
Data: NOAA, CDIAC; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
2000
2010
Airborne Fraction
Fraction of total CO2 emissions that remains in the atmosphere
1.0
Airborne Fraction
Trend: 0.27±0.2 % y-1 (p=0.9)
0.8
45%
40%
0.6
0.4
0.2
1960
1970
1980
1990
Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS; Raupach et al. 2008, Biogeosciences
2000
2010
Modelled Natural CO2 Sinks
Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
Estimated Trends in Sea-Air pCO2
1981-2007
μatm y-1
outgas
uptake
Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
Possible Reasons for a Positive Trend in Airborne Fraction
• Emissions are rising faster than the time scales regulating the
rate of uptake by sinks.
• Sinks are becoming less efficient at high CO2
– Land: saturation of the CO2 fertilization effect
– Ocean: decrease in [carbonate] which buffers CO2
• Land and/or ocean sinks are responding to climate change
and variability.
• We are missing sink processes in models that are contributing
to the observed changes.
Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
2000-2008
Source
deforestation
tropics
extra-tropics
1.4
Sink
CO2 flux (Pg C y-1)
PgC
Time (y)
Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
2000-2008
PgC
Source
7.7
deforestation
Sink
CO2 flux (Pg C y-1)
fossil fuel emissions
Time (y)
Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
1.4
Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
2000-2008
PgC
Source
7.7
deforestation
atmospheric CO2
Sink
CO2 flux (Pg C y-1)
fossil fuel emissions
Time (y)
Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
1.4
4.1
Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
2000-2008
PgC
Source
7.7
deforestation
atmospheric CO2
Sink
CO2 flux (Pg C y-1)
fossil fuel emissions
ocean
Time (y)
Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
1.4
4.1
2.3 (4 models)
Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
2000-2008
PgC
Source
7.7
deforestation
atmospheric CO2
Sink
CO2 flux (PgC y-1)
fossil fuel emissions
land
ocean
Time (y)
Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
1.4
4.1
3.0 (5 models)
2.3 (4 models)
Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
2000-2008
PgC
Source
7.7
deforestation
atmospheric CO2
Sink
CO2 flux (PgC y-1)
fossil fuel emissions
land
ocean
Time (y)
Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
1.4
4.1
3.0 (5 models)
2.3 (4 models)
0.3 Residual
Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2008)
1.4 PgC y-1
4.1 PgC y-1
45%
7.7 PgC y-1
+
3.0 PgC y-1
29%
26%
2.3 PgC y-1
Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS, updated
Global Carbon Project 2009
Conclusions
• The efficiency of the natural sinks has being declining over
the last 60 years, a trend not fully captured by climate
models.
• The human perturbation of the carbon cycle continues to
grow strongly and track the most carbon intensive
scenarios of the IPCC. The economic crisis will likely have
a transitional impact on the growth of CO2 emissions and a
undetectable effect on the growth of atmospheric CO2
(because the much larger inter-annual variability of the
natural sinks).
References cited in this ppt
•
•
•
•
•
Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Houghton RA (2009) Anthropogenic CO2 emissions in
Africa. Biogeosciences 6: 463-468.
International Monetary Fund (2009) World economic outlook. October 2009.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/02/index.htm
Le Quéré C, Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Marland G et al. (2009) Trends in the
sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nature geosciences, doi: 10.1038/ngeo689.
Marland G, Hamal K, Jonas M (2009) How uncertain are estimates of CO2
emissions. Journal of Industrial Ecology 13: 4-7.
•
Peters GP, Hertwich E G (2008) CO2 embodied in international trade with implications for global
climate policy. Environmental Science and Technology 42, 1401-1407.
•
Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Le Quéré C (2008) Drivers of interannual to interdecadal
variability in atmospheric in atmospheric CO2 growth rate and airborne fraction.
Biogeosciences 5: 1601–1613.
Sitch S, Huntigford C, Gedney N et al. (2008) Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon
cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic
Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Global Change Biology 14: 1–25, doi:
10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01626.x.
van der Werf GR, Randerson JT, Giglio L, Collatz GL, Kasibhatla PS, Arellano AF, Jr
(2006) Interannual variability in global biomass burning emissions from 1997 to 2004.
Atmos. Chem. Phys. 6: 3423–3441.
•
•
www.globalcarbonproject.org