Transcript Overview of Recent Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County and 2010 Elections By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne.

Overview of Recent Public Opinion
in Anne Arundel County
and 2010 Elections
By Dan Nataf, Ph.D.
Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues
Anne Arundel Community College
March 30, 2011
Topics
1. Recent CSLI survey results – March 7-10
2. Election results from 2010 – affecting
Anne Arundel County
Overview of Survey Process
•CSLI – Part of Sarbanes Center for Public and Community Service at Anne Arundel
Community College
•Operating since 1978
•Mission: Provide students opportunities for engaged
learning, community outreach
• Main activity – public interest surveys
oRespondents randomly chosen from universe of listed telephone numbers combined with computer
generated numbers
oTypical sample size: 400-900 respondents; students used as interviewers
o Topics – wide ranging, economy, transportation, land use/growth, taxes/spending, schools…
• Last
• since 1978
survey – March 7-10, 2011 – focus on this presentation
• www2.aacc.edu/csli
Polling Results for AA County
Remarkable stability in right/wrong direction…
70
66
62
60
60
58
57
61
62
58
58
55
54
53
51
50
57
55
51
52
51
50
52
52
52
49
47
50
40
Right
34
33
31
30
27
23
20
20
19
25
24
26
23
20
17
15
14
19
13
10
27
24
21
18
19
15
25
29
18
15
16
29
26
18
20
32
Wrong
31
28
25
27
21
27
21
16
17
28
28
28
23
22
20
17
12
0
Sp
Fa
Sp
Fa
Sp
Fa
Sp
Fa
Sp
Fa
Sp
Fa
Sp
Fa
Sp
Fa
Sp
Fa
Sp
Fa
Sp
Fa
Sp
Fa
Sp
'99 '99 '00 '00 '01 '01 '02 '02 '03 '03 '04 '04 '05 '05 '06 '06 '07 '07 '08 '08 '09 '09 '10 '10 '11
Unsure
AA County Polling Results:
Most Important Problem - Fall '04 to Spring '11
Economy – top concern with no
recent changes
60
50
48
40
38
36
33
30
8
7
16
16
12
7
22
12
8
7
11 12
9
9
5
5
5
Fall '10
Spring '10
Fall '09
Spring '09
Fall '08
Spring '08
Fall '07
Spring '07
Fall '06
Spring '06
Fall '05
Spring '05
Fall '04
4
2
0
Economy /Housing
Taxes – too high
Growth /development
Education /
Traffic congestion /problems
Crime / drugs
Mean
16
15
14
10
23
21
18
36
Sp '11
22
20
36
AA County Polling Results: Rate the Economy
Percentage saying “excellent” or “good” also stable since March 2009
60
Anne Arundel County
50
46
49
48
44
45
Maryland improves by 8%
40
35
30
30
31
32
27
USA
20
11
10
5
0
11
11
11
AA County compared to USA – County looks around 35%
better
80
74 76
74
74
71
74
71
71
70
69
CSLI – Anne Arundel County
62
60
56
56
55
49
50
46
48
44
42
38
40
34
38
30
49
45
34
31
26
32
28
27
27
22
17
20
Gallup – National Polling for USA
10
10
5
11
11
13
5
0
S'02 F '02 S '03 F '03 S '04 F '04 S '05 F '05 S '06 F '06 S '07 F '07 S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11
AA County Polling Results: Mostly stable findings in %
saying a condition ‘applies’
Economic Conditions - % saying 'applies' - specific items
80
71
70
75
Little change except for fewer losses in
stocks/retirement accounts
70
56
60
60
52
51
50
46 47
44
47
40
35
30 29
30
24 24
20
11
15
19
33 32 34
35
21 20
6
10
4
6
8 7 7 9
0
Facing the possibility of Significant losses in your Facing the possibility of Delay in making a major Health care insurance is
unemployment
stock or retirement
house foreclosure or loss purchase such as a home
accounts
S '08
or car
F '08
S '09
F '09
S '10
F '10
S '11
unavailable, too
expensive or inadequate
The economy: what else applies?
70
Big jump in transportation costs
63
59
60
56
63
61
58 59 59
55 55 56 56
63
60
53
50
50
44 43
42
41
40
46
40
32
30
24
21
21
20
13
11 12
21
17
15
14
10
10
0
Unable to find affordable
housing
Wages or salaries are not
rising as fast as the cost of
living
S '08
F '08
Hard to afford the cost of
Hard to afford the cost of
transportation
utilities such as electricity or
gas
S '09
F '09
S '10
F '10
S '11
Taxes are too high in
relation to government
services provided
Biggest Economic Challenge Facing the County
– Items Mentioned in 2005 and 2011
Condition
Budget and jobs rise Fall
in importance
2005
Balancing the county budget (less spending, more
revenues)
Providing enough jobs
Providing enough skills/training or otherwise improving
education/schools
Managing growth/development
Having enough infrastructure, roads, transportation
All other answers
Total
Spring
2011
0
18
8
11
16
12
27
3
51
100
8
7
39
100
Perceptions of Decreases in Government Services
Most don’t see an impact
from govt. belt-tightening
Services mentioned
Answer
Yes
No
Don’t know,
no answer
Total
Percentage
26
70
5
101
Cases
Percentage
Roads
39
24
Schools/teachers
31
19
Library
24
15
College tuition
12
7
Fire
10
6
Seniors services
Jobs/furloughs/pay
cuts
Police
10
6
9
6
Staffing
7
4
Child services
6
4
MVA
3
2
Mental health
2
1
163
100
Total
10
6
State and County Issues
Issue
Support
Oppose
Unsure
Imposing an additional fine of up to $1500 on drivers caught drunk driving
86
13
1
Permitting the use of off-shore wind power near Ocean City
80
10
10
Increasing the alcohol tax
Permitting the purchase of marijuana for medical purposes
68
65
29
29
3
7
Taking away drivers’ licenses from those who refuse to pay taxes
64
32
3
Increasing the use of cameras to ticket those running red lights
59
41
4
Making same sex marriages legal in Maryland
47
46
7
Making preparations to implement President Obama’s health care reform law
43
50
8
Limiting the use of binding arbitration when the county negotiates with
public safety unions
35
42
23
Allowing the children of illegal immigrants to pay in-state tuition for college
33
63
4
Increasing university tuition to maintain the quality of higher education
32
66
2
Reducing the pension and retiree health benefits of state workers
28
65
7
Promising state workers no furlough days, and providing them with a $750
bonus
25
59
16
Increasing the county income tax to the maximum allowed by law to avoid
cuts in essential services
25
68
7
17
12
80
3
Increasing the gasoline tax to bolster the transportation trust fund
Social Category
Party p=.01
Democrat
Unaffiliated
Republican
Ideology p=.01
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Religion p=.01
None/Non-practicing
Jewish
Spiritual but not part of
organized religion
Other
Catholic
Protestant
Some other Christian
Evangelical
Marital Status p=01.
Single
Married
Gender p=.3
Female
Male
Support
%
57
48
35
81
53
22
75
71
64
46
43
40
38
30
66
45
51
44
Demographics/Same Sex Marriage
% saying “Support”
Age
p=.07
18-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61+
Race
Black
53
51
51
53
37
p=.3
White
Other (including
Hispanic,
Asian and unspecified
‘other’)
30
49
50
Watched, listened or read about…
Yes
No
Total
28
Unsure
/N.A.
1
President Obama’s state of the union speech?
72
Governor O’Malley’s inaugural speech or his
state of the state speech
41
58
1
100
Watched County Council hearings being
broadcast on local cable stations anytime
over the last year?
19
80
1
100
101
Estimations
of Federal Budget
51% estimated
Estimates
Under $1 billion
$1 billion to $500
billion
$501 to $999 billion
$1-1.999 trillion
$2-2.99 trillion
$3-4.99 trillion
$5-6 trillion
Over $6 trillion
Total
%
4
17
4
21
10
22
6
17
101
Estimations of
State Budget
31% estimated
Estimates
%
Under $1 billion
$1-5.99 billion
$6 to $10.99
billion
$11-15.99 billion
$16-20.99 billion
$21-30.99 billion
$31-40 billion
Over $40 billion
Total
30
26
7
4
5
3
1
24
100
Estimations of
County Budget
31% estimated
Estimates
Under $5 million
$5-50 million
$51 to $100
million
$101-350 million
$351-650 million
$651-999 million
$1-1.99 billion
$2-2.99 billion
$4-6.99 billion
Over $7 billion
Total
%
22
18
10
8
9
7
14
3
4
6
100
Presidential Job Approval: Recent Rise…
70
61
53
60
50
40
39
37
35
32
34
33
30
30
28
43
54
47
47
47
42
25
24
20
10
0
Spring '11
Fall '10
Gallup
Spring '10
Fall '09
Spring '09
Fall '08
Spring '08
Fall '07
Spring '07
Fall '06
CSLI
Presidential Job Approval: % approving of president’s job by party
90
79
80
72
62
57
60
70
69
70
53 53
50
43
47
53
47
20
10
57
52
47
42
Democrats
35
40
30
Overall
28
19
24 24
9
25
24
25
18
17
Republicans
6
Indep
0
Sp. '08 Fa. '08
Bush
Sp '09
Fa. '09
Sp '10
Obama
Fa '10
Sp '10
2010 Elections
Statewide Races – AAC Results ‘06/’10
100
100
90
80
Mikulski improves
Very little change in Governor or
Comptroller outcomes
70
60
50
56.7
54.4
51
50.4
49
49.6
43.3 43.4
51.5
54.3
52.3
47.7
45.7
48.5
40
30
20
10
0
0
Govr
Comptroller
Atty Gen.
U.S.
Senate
Gubernatorial Races – Anne Arundel County
Anne Arundel Consistently supports Rep. Gubernatorial Candidates
Dem – Rep Vote for Governor
Schaeffer 83%
Mooney 17%
O’Malley on low end of
typical Dem vote deficit
66972
Glendening 40%
Sauerbrey 60%
O’Malley 42%
Ehrlich 57%
Glendening 43%
Sauerbrey 57%
KK Townsend 35%
Ehrlich 65%
Schaeffer 49%
Shepard 51%
-28743
-20788
-27581
-21963
-2254
1986
1990
60000
40000
O’Malley 43%
Ehrlich 54%
-53215
80000
20000
0
-20000
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
-40000
-60000
Statewide Races: O’Malley vs. Ehrlich for Governor 2006-2010
Polls are in range, but with internal variation
Nov. 2006
March 2010
October 11-14, 2010
Oct.
26-27
Nov.
2
All
Categories
Exclude
some
All
categories
Exclude
some
Exclude
all except
voters
Exit
Poll
Actual
Vote
42
35
43
29
32
42
46
43
Ehrlich
56.9
47
57
40
45
59
51
54
Gap
14.9
12
14
11
13
19
5
11
Other
--
3
--
2
--
--
3
--
Undecided
--
--
--
22
24
--
--
--
Neither
--
5
--
1
--
--
--
--
Unsure
--
10
--
5
--
--
--
--
100
100
99
101
101
100
Candidate
O’Malley
Total
Actual
Vote
State Senate in AAC (Districts 30,31,32,33)
100%
100%
90%
Dems experience lower percentages in all
districts
80%
70%
62%
60%
50%
40%
54%
51%
49%
46%
62%
60%
55%
Dem 2006
50%50%
Rep 2006
45%
38%
38%
Dem 2010
40%
Rep 2010
30%
20%
10%
0%
0%
STATE SENATOR 30 STATE SENATOR 31 STATE SENATOR 32 STATE SENATOR 33
Delegate Races in Districts 30,31,32,33: Dem-Rep Gap
15000
Loses in 32 – what’s the future for Dems
there?
Big Dem loss in 31
10000
5000
10983
8825
4982
33b uncontested
33a only 1 Dem cand.
0
-5000
30
-3567
31
-3341
32
33a
-5038
33b
-2164
-10000
-15000
-20000
-25000
-14492
Race gets very
close in 30
Dem-Rep 2006
-27514
-30000
-35000
-32511
Dem-Rep 2010
Senate and Delegate Minimum Winning Totals in Districts
30,31,32,33
Minimum winning vote
Seats
District
Senate
Delegates
Senate
Delegate
30
25253
22535
Dem
D=1/R=2
31
25723
22436
Rep
D=0/R=3
32
24762
18786
Dem
D=3/R=0
43466
uncontested
18603
Rep
D=0/R=2
33(a)
33b
14623
D=0/R=1
District 31: State Senate Races: 2006-2010
2006: Walter Shandrowski 49.1%
Brian Simonaire 50.8%
2010: Ned Carey 37.8%
Brian Simonaire
62.1%
District 31 – 2006 vs. 2010 Delegate Races
Candidate
2010: %
Votes
Candidate
2006: %
Chiappelli
11.8
12943
Cadden
17.0
17529
-4586
Towles
10.9
11968
Fleckenstein
16.1
16651
-4683
Ekert
10.8
11856
Reynolds
14.0
14452
-2596
Total
11.2
36767
15.7
48632
-11865
Democratic candidates can’t replicate 2006
results!
Votes
District 31: Demographic Info
Too many conservatives,
not enough moderates
District 31: Issues and Conditions
Economic distress is high
90
83
80
70
63
56
60
50
47
46
43
53
51
46
41
40
30
56
36 35
35
34
27
42
26
20
20
21
19
14
9
10
0
District 3
County
18
16
6
County Elections: Slots at Arundel Mills
Opponents to the introduction of
slot machines at Arundel Mills
Mall are circulating a petition to
put the county council’s decision
to grant zoning needed for slots
to referendum in November,
potentially reversing the decision.
Do you support or oppose this
petition effort?
Position
What
happened
to shift
voter
sentiment
at last
minute?
Will you be voting for or against Question A on the
November ballot? A "for" vote would approve the
County Council's zoning decision permitting slots
in the county, including at Arundel Mills and
Laurel. An 'against' vote would leave the county
without slots zoning at any location.
Oct.
‘10
Exit
Poll
Actual
Vote
Support
March
’10
45
42
60
55.6
Oppose
45
42
39
44.4
Gap
0
0
21
11.2
Unsure
7
16
--
--
No answer
2
--
1
--
Total
99
100
100
100
Question A: Election Day vs. Early Voting
by Council District
Early voting a
good predictor of
election day votes
70.0%
65.0%
61.3%
59.5%
60.0%
54.5%
54.1%
54.8%
54.8%
52.0%
51.1%
50.0%
47.3%
SPark Lib
Harundale
Lib
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
56.5%
55.9%
Annap
Senior Ctr
Edgewater
Lib
Quest A
West
County
Lib
Early
voted at
West
County
Early Votes
10.0%
0.0%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
100000
87676
90000
70000
50000
89456
89613
80000
60000
97465
93533
63879
85040
83305
57615
54899
Rep
Dem
40000
Other
30000
20000
10000
10486
0
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
12425
GAP
2716
23987
3920
6151
Including Shay Only a few thousand votes separate Dem/Rep candidates 1930
2010 County Exec Race Over Time
Nov.
2006
Candidate
Actual
Vote
June
Sept.
2010
2010
Online Online
Poll
Poll
October 11-14, 2010
Oct.
26-27
Nov. 2
All
Categories
All
Categories
All
categories
Exclude
some
Exclude
all
except
voters
Exit
Poll
Actual
Vote
Johnson/
Conti
49
30 (Owens)
23 (Conti)
28
21
24
37
39
44.0
Leopold
51
52/54
54
34
38
59
50
50.5
Gap
2
22/31
26
13
14
22
11
6.5
Other
--
15/16
10
2
3
--
--
5.4
Undecided
--
--
--
32
35
--
--
--
Neither
--
4/7
9
2
--
--
3
--
Unsure
--
--
--
10
--
--
--
--
101
100
101
100
Total
101/100
100
Unlike Governor’s race, CE race much harder to predict –much tightening
at the end…
Vote Composition: Exit Poll
Conti lags among Dem voters but gains a bit
among unaffiliated
100
90
84
80
89
72
70
57
60
50
51
48
44 43
Conti
39
40
O'Malley
Weathersbee
30
20
12
10
15
9
0
Overall
Dem
Rep
Unaffil.
Voter Composition continued: Exit Poll
Conti lags among Dems, but
gains among Reps
120
9596
100
83
81
83
75
80
64
Conti
60
O'Malley
50
Weathersbee
40
40
31
29
21
13
20
19
12
4
0
4
0
Strg Dem
Weak Dem
Ind Dem
Ind Rep
Weak Rep
Strg Rep
Vote by Ideology
Conti lags among liberals but does a bit
100 better with conservatives
94
90
80
94
85
87
82
79
70
60
59
54
50
Leopold
52
41
40
Conti
40
O'Malley
42
Ehrlich
Weathersbee
30
20
10
16
10
10
6
13
6
0
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Grannon
County Exec.: How informed were voters?
80
70
76
Leopold voters started
and remained more
informed
60
Oct. 11-14
Voters seem
informed by
election
EXIT POLL
Oct. 11-14
56
56
NOT VERY
Informed
53
EXIT POLL
50
43
40
42
Conti
Oct. 11-14
Leopold
35
Undecided
31
28
30
27
24
20
10
9
VERY
Informed
EXIT POLL
16
SOMEWHAT
Informed
5
0
0
0
0
0
County executive choice: Whose stands do you favor?
Sorted by Undecided/Don’t know (Oct. 11-14)
On this issue are you more favorable to Conti, Leopold or Shay?
Issue
Conti Leopold L-C Shay
Undecided
Don’t
know
enough
Undec.+ don’t
know enough
Allowing slots at Arundel Mills mall
10
17
7
1
27
46
73
Improving transportation
13
20
7
1
21
45
66
Protecting the needs of vulnerable
populations in the county budget
Maintaining high ethical standards
16
18
2
1
21
44
17
17
0
3
24
39
63
Improving public schools
13
24
11
1
19
43
62
Keeping neighborhoods safe
13
24
11
1
21
41
62
Making County government more
efficient
Preserving the environment
12
29
17
2
21
37
15
21
6
7
18
39
57
Managing growth
13
29
16
2
18
38
56
Having the right experience for the job
11
32
21
1
21
35
56
Keeping taxes low
14
30
16
1
19
36
55
Encouraging economic development
13
31
18
1
18
37
55
65
58
County executive choice: Whose stands do you favor?
Sorted by those favoring Leopold over Conti (Oct. 11-14)
U
Conti
Leopold
L-C
Shay
Undecided
Don’t know
enough
11
32
21
1
21
35
56
13
31
18
1
18
37
55
12
29
17
2
21
37
58
13
29
16
2
18
38
56
Keeping taxes low
14
30
16
1
19
36
55
Improving public schools
13
24
11
1
19
43
62
Keeping neighborhoods safe
13
24
11
1
21
41
62
Allowing slots at Arundel Mills mall 10
17
7
1
27
46
73
Improving transportation
Preserving the environment
13
15
20
21
7
6
1
7
21
18
45
39
66
57
Protecting the needs of vulnerable
populations in the county budget
16
18
2
1
21
44
65
Maintaining high ethical standards
17
17
0
3
24
39
63
Having the right experience for the
job
Encouraging economic development
Making County government more
efficient
Managing growth
Undecided/Don’t
know enough
Issue Stands/Traits Most Shaping Choice for County Exec. (Exit Poll)
Issue/trait
Overall
Conti
Leopold
L-C
Balance budget
30
21
44
23
Taxes
21
10
34
24
Right experience
22
15
32
17
14
7
23
16
16
11
24
13
33
31
43
12
Crime
14
9
20
11
Growth/devel.
15
12
18
6
Familiar name
4
1
7
6
Slots
10
8
12
4
Constituent serv.
9
8
11
3
Environment
15
17
11
-6
21
26
19
-7
13
21
8
-13
16
24
9
-15
28
38
22
-16
Leopold
Cost of living
bets on
experience Strong leader
and issues Economy
Conti betsSchools
Honesty
on
character Right moral outlook
and party Party affiliation
Weathersbee vs. Bateman
Council District
Weathersbee
Weathersbee
Weathersbee
‘06
‘10
1
57.3
55.3
48.8
58.2
49.2
62.0
51.8
54.3
52.8
43.6
56.4
46.7
58.6
45.7
2
3
4
5
6
7
Total
‘10-’06
Bateman
‘10
W-B
-3
-2.5
-5.2
-1.8
-2.5
-3.4
-6.1
60.4
59.8
55.5
61.9
55.1
61.5
50.7
-6.1
-7.0
-11.9
-5.5
-8.4
-2.9
-5.0
57.8 (up from
54.7
51.2
Weathersbee has losses in
districts 3 and 7 in 2010 and
no gains in any district
-3.5
54% in ‘06)
-6.7
Bateman increases votes
from ‘06 and wins majority
in all districts in 2010
Council Districts Party
Registration
53%D, 29%R, 18%U
49%D, 32%R, 18%U
48%D, 31%R, 18%U
42%D, 39%R, 19%U
37%D, 44%R, 20%U
47%D, 31%R, 18%U
36% D, 41%R, 19%U
Democratic Candidates by Council District
37.6%
36.4%
39.9%
39.8%
CC7
Conti underperforms
in district 6
43.8%
46.1%
CC6
48.1%
36.6%
36.0%
38.7%
37.1%
CC5
53.1%
51.7%
35.7%
59.5%
Obama
57.1%
Benoit and
Trumbauer exceed
Dem registration
Meaningless
party reg. in
district 3
Klosterman
underperforms in
district 2
51.7%
52.5%
CC1
0.0%
41.7%
41.0%
48.1%
45.5%
46.2%
42.8%
48.5%
CC2
Conti
Omalley
53.8%
51.9%
35.0%
DemCC
42.8%
CC4
30.8%
58.0%
Rudolph about
average in district 5
47.1%
CC3
PartyReg
47.4%
45.8%
49.2%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
Majority Dem
registration in D1
60.0%
70.0%
Legislative
Districts
Questions to ponder:
• 1. Can Democrats be successful countywide and in
‘harder’ districts?
o Bateman, Weathersbee
• Quality of candidate
• Quality of opponent
• Quality of campaign
• Impact of larger trends – national,
statewide
• Changes in the composition of the
electorate
• Saliency of issues
Questions to ponder:
• 2. What is the future of District 31 Democratic seats
o Democrats demoralized?
o Will the 2010 results undermine recruitment
efforts?
o What issues can Democrats successfully
use in the district?
o What vulnerabilities do Democrats have –
on issues, in the composition of the
electorate, in the recruitment of
candidates?
Questions to ponder:
•
As chair of the AAC Dem Central Committee…
o Identify potential candidates, groom them early
o Identify key issues within each district
o Identify how changes in the composition of the electorate
might affect Dem candidates
o Provide experience based campaign training
o Conduct opposition research – identify Republican
vulnerabilities, develop key talking points, test ideas on
focus groups, conduct polls
o Develop consistent outreach tools - a Democratic
newsletter – online distribution, central location for all Dem
events, solicit input from voters
o Ensure turnout – close elections imply narrow victories!
National Politics: Exit Poll re: House Vote
Demographics of National House of Representatives Vote
(vs. ‘08 Obama – National Exit Polls
•
Party identification in 2010: Dem/Rep at 35%, 29% Ind.
(vs. 39/32/29% in 2008)
•
Defection slightly higher among Dems 7% vs 5% Reps
•
Indep. vote sided strongly with Reps 56% not Dems 37%
(vs. 41/52% in ‘08)
•
Women equally split (48 D; 49% R) (vs. 56, 43% in 2008)
•
Whites strongly Rep (60%) not Dem (37%) (vs. 55, 43% in 2008)
•
Only those with little (57%) or postgrad ed (53%) favored Dems
National Politics: Exit Poll re: House Vote
Demographics of National House of Representatives Vote
(vs. ‘08 Obama – National Exit Polls
Vote by Age (08/10)
Dem ’08 Dem ‘10
Rep
18-29
18/12
66
55
42
30-44
29/24
52
46
50
45-64
37/43
50
45
53
45
38
59
65 and Older 16/21
Older voters worried about Medicare/Health care reform?
National Politics: House Vote
• Libs and Moderates favored Dems (90, 55%) but were too small
(20, 38%) a part of electorate vs Cons. (42%) who massively
favored Reps (84)
(2008: Lib 22; Moderate 44; Cons. 34%)
• Lost job – no effect(30%)? Yes (50 Dem; 46% Rep) No (45, 54%)
• Union member (17%): Yes (61 Dem; 37% Rep) No (43, 54%)
• 2008 Presidential Vote: Obama (45%) 84,14%;
McCain (45%) 7,91%,
Other (4%) 33, 58%
• Is vote support for Obama? Yes
(23%) 96 Dem; 3% Rep;
No
(37%) 6, 92%,
Not factor (38%), 52, 44%
National Politics: House Vote
Too many people strongly disapprove of the job Congress is doing…
How Congress is Handling its Job Democrat Republican
Strongly Approve (4%)
82
16
Somewhat Approve (20%)
78
20
Somewhat Disapprove (26%)
57
41
Strongly Disapprove (48%)
19
77
But unfavorable opinions are spread to both Dems and Reps
What is your opinion of…
Democrats - favorable (44%)
Republicans - favorable (41%)
Democrat Republican
91
8
11
88
National Politics: House Vote
Govt. perceived as over-reaching…
Govt should do more ?
Yes, do more (38%) vs 51% in ’08
No, do less (56%) vs. 43% in ‘08
Dem
Rep
77
20
21
76
With too many dissatisfied with federal govt.
Opinion of Federal Government Democrat Republican
Enthusiastic (3%)
92
6
Satisfied (21%)
79
18
Dissatisfied (48%)
41
55
Angry
(25%)
14
83
National Politics: House Vote
Economic anxieties favor Reps..
How worried about economic conds.?
Dem
Rep
30
68
Somewhat Worried (37%)
52
43
Not Too Worried (10%)
81
18
Very Worried (49%)
Reversal of 2008 when those worried lined up behind Dems
Worried That Economic Crisis Will
Hurt Your Family
Very Worried (48%)
Somewhat Worried (33%)
Dem
Rep
62
52
36
47
Not Too Worried (13%)
33
63
Not Worried At All (5%)
40
56
National Politics: House Vote
Stimulus not perceived as having done enough…
Stimulus Policy has
Helped (32%)
Hurt (34%)
Made No Difference (31%)
Dem
Rep
86
10
13
87
39
57
While blaming Wall Street or Bush just wasn’t enough…
Who Do You Blame for Economic Problems?
Dem
Rep
Wall Street (35%)
George W. Bush (29%)
41
83
57
15
Barack Obama (24%)
6
91
National Politics: House Vote
Health care reform was polarizing and insufficiently popular
What Should Congress Do With New
Health Care Law?
Dem
Rep
Expand It (31%)
84
15
Leave It As Is (16%)
63
34
11
86
Repeal It (48%)
And probably viewed as a distraction from the prime concerns of most
citizens…
Most Important Issue Facing
Country Today
Economy (63%)
Health Care (18%)
Illegal Immigration (8%
War in Afghanistan (7%)
Democrat Republican
43
51
26
58
54
47
68
40
National Politics: House Vote
Now policy direction lacks consensus…and is polarizing
Bush-Era Tax Cuts Should Be
Continued For...
All Americans (40%)
Families Under $250,000 (36%)
Dem
Rep
14
64
84
32
75
22
Dem
Rep
(40%)
26
32
71
65
Spending to Create Jobs (37%)
68
30
No One (15%)
Highest Priority for Next Congress
Cutting Taxes (18%)
Reducing Deficit
Republicans face contradictory pressures – reduce deficit
vs. cutting taxes
National Politics: House Vote
Dems disapprove of war in Afghanistan – losing the base?
U.S. War in Afghanistan
Approve (40%)
Disapprove (54%)
Should Same-Sex Marriages Be
Legally Recognized?
Yes (41%)
No (53%)
Dem
Rep
24
61
75
36
Dem
Rep
67
27
30
70
While same sex marriage still troubled waters for Dems
Democratic Candidates by Council District
Districts 4 and 6 overperform
Obama OMalley Conti
DemCC
Mean Party Reg Mean-Reg.
CC1
49.2
45.8
47.4
52.5
48.7
51.7
-3
CC2
48.5
42.8
46.2
45.5
45.7
48.1
-2.4
CC3
35.7
30.8
35
41
35.6
41.7
-6.1
CC4
57.1
51.9
53.8
59.5
55.6
47.1
8.5
CC5
42.8
37.1
38.7
36
38.6
36.6
2.1
CC6
58
51.7
48.1
53.1
52.7
46.1
6.6
CC7
43.8
39.8
39.9
36.4
40
37.6
2.4
District 3 underperforms!