Transcript Greenhouse Amplification of the Power of the Sun: An Earth bound problem with Impacts “Visible” from Space W.

Greenhouse Amplification
of the Power of the Sun:
An Earth bound problem with Impacts
“Visible” from Space
W. Richard Peltier
Department of Physics
University of Toronto
The Active Sun and the Amplification of
its Power by the Greenhouse Effect
Greenhouse gases: CO2, CH4, N2O
Greenhouse Gas Concentration Measurements
from Antarctic Ice-Cores Confirm the Anomalous
Nature of Present Trace Gas Conditions
Last 4 inter-glacials
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The current (Holocene) inter-glacial
Earth at the Last Maximum of
Glaciation 21,000 Years Ago
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Since the onset of industrialization, greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere have been increasing at an
unprecedented rate.
Over the period since Last Glacial Maximum
Holocene
Individual GHG Strengths
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An early (TAR) “hockey stick”
Current, 2009,
atmospheric CO2
concentration is
~388 ppmv, which
is to be compared
to the pre-industrial
level of ~280
ppmv, an increase of
~36% over the past
~160 years
That global warming would be caused by increasing CO2
levels was predicted by the Nobel chemist Arrhenius~1896
The mean surface temperature since the mid-20th century has
continued to increase above that which existed at any time
during the past 1300 years
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The IPCC Future Scenarios
Since the beginning of northern hemisphere
industrialization the increase has been ~0.8 Deg.
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The Observed Warming is Characterized by High
Latitude Northern Hemisphere Amplification
The GRACE Satellites: Gravity field time
dependence and climate
Land Ice in the Polar Regions: Sensitive
indicators of greenhouse amplification
Antarctica
Greenland
Alaska and the Yukon
The GRACE signal (a) and that expected due to the
response of planetary shape to the elimination of the
ice-age ice sheet that once covered Canada(b)
= (a) – (b)
Estimating mass loss and global sea level
rise: Alaska and Greenland
Corrected for
hydrology
~.15 mm/yr in
Global sea level rise
Corrected for GIA
~.62 mm/yr in
Global sea level rise
Estimating mass loss and global sea level rise:
Antarctica
CSR
GFZ
GIA
CSR-GIA
~.32 mm/yr in
global sea level
rise
GFZ-GIA
~.36 mm/yr in
Global sea level rise
Remember, the Greenhouse effect is enhanced
as a consequence of our carbon based economy
Greenhouse Gases
To Summarize Re: Climate Change
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Since start of Industrial Revolution, carbon
dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere has risen from
277 parts per million to 387 parts per million
Burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, and natural gas –
emits 7.5 billion tons of carbon each year
Deforestation emits 1.5 billion tons each year
Electricity generation and transportation are the
largest sources of CO2 emissions, with coal-fired
power plants the biggest culprit
As CO2 accumulates, global temperature rises
Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
Climate Change
The earth has warmed an average 0.6°C
(1.0°F) since 1970
 Rising temperatures fuel stronger storms
and increase crop-withering heat waves
 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) projects earth’s average
temperature will rise 1.1 - 6.4°C
(2.0 - 11.5°F) during this century
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Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / dra_schwartz
Ice Melting
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Losing our Reservoirs in the Sky
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Mountain glaciers rapidly disappearing worldwide
Himalayan and Tibetan-Qinghai Plateau glaciers
feed the major rivers of Asia during the dry
season, providing critical irrigation water for
agriculture
If melting continues at current rates, rivers like the
Yellow, Yangtze, Ganges, and Indus could
become seasonal, devastating wheat and rice
harvests
Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
Ice Melting
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Rising Seas
Massive Greenland and West Antarctic ice
sheets are melting at accelerating rates
 Together hold enough water to raise sea level
12 meters (39 feet)
 A 10 meter rise in sea level today would
inundate coastal areas home to more than
600 million people
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The risk is that climate change could spiral out of control,
making it impossible to arrest trends such as rising
temperatures, ice melting, and rising seas, threatening food
security and creating hundreds of millions of climate refugees.
Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
The Answer: De-carbonize by both
--Harnessing the Wind
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One Centerpiece of a new
energy economy
Abundant – North Dakota,
Kansas, and Texas alone
could satisfy U.S. energy
needs
Widespread – in every
country
Increasingly inexpensive
A plausible goal: 3 million
MW of installed capacity
worldwide by 2020?
Would Need 1.5 million 2MW turbines installed by
2020
Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Joe Gough
And De-carbonize by-- Harnessing
The Power of the Sun
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Technologies include
photovoltaics (PV), solar
thermal power plants,
solar hot water and space
heaters
Sunlight hitting the earth
in 1 hour could power
global economy for 1 year
New Economy goal: Solar
heating, electricity each
exceed 1 million MW
installed capacity
Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / katyakatya
World Electricity Generation by Source in 2006
and in one envisioned NEW Economy
X
2050??
The End