World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO Role of Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services in Disaster Risk Management And Progress with.
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World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO Role of Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services in Disaster Risk Management And Progress with WMO DRR Programme By Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Division www.wmo.int Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and theirCasualties Impacts (1980-2007) - 1980-2007 (World) Number of events - 1980-2007 (World) Wild Fires 3.4% Tsunami 0.4% Volcano 1.6% Insect Infestation 0.9% Drought 4.8% Earthquake 8.1% Wind Storm 27.2% Loss of life Wild Fires 0.1% Epidemic 12.0% Slides 4.8% Flood 33.1% Extreme Temperature 3.8% Tsunami 12.2% Earthquake 15.8% Epidemic Flood 10.4% Extreme 9.6% Temperature 5.4% Volcano 1% Slides 1.1% Economic losses - 1980-2007 (World) Number of events Wind Storm 42.2% 90 % of events Drought 30% Wind Storm 14.6% Tsunami 0.6% Slides 0.4% 70 % of casualties 78 % of economic losses Wild Fires 2.4% Flood 25.5% Drought 5.0% Earthquake 21.5% Economic losses Extreme Temperature 2.1% are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions. Source: EMDAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc RA V Distribution of Disasters Caused by - 1980-2007 (RA V) Natural Hazards and theirCasualties Impacts (1980-2007) Number of events - 1980-2007 (RA V) Loss of life Tsunami 1% Wind Storm 11% Wind Storm 33% Wild Fires 4% Tsunami 75% Drought 3% Volcano 6% Earthquake 6% Earthquake 10% Slides 8% Flood 27% Epidemic 7% Epidemic 2% Economic losses - 1980-2007 (RA V) Flood 3% Slides 2% Number of events Extreme Temperature 1% Wind Storm 23% Wild Fires 19% Tsunami 9% 83% of events 18 % of casualties Volcano 79% of economic losses 1% Drought 23% Flood 14% Economic losses Earthquake 11% are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions. Source: EMDAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc Regional Distribution of Number of Disasters, Casualties and Economic losses Caused by natural hazards (1980-2007) Economic losses (billions300 US $) Loss of life Number of disaster events 700,000 2,000 Hydrometeorological Geological 600,000 1,800 Hydrometeorological Geological 1,600 Hydrometeorological Geological 500,000 200 1,400 400,000 1,200 1,000 300,000 800 100 200,000 600 400 100,000 200 0 0 A Afr ica sia So N P E uth -C A acifi urop e Am m & c eri ca Carr . Number of events As Afr ia ica So uth NP C A acif Euro pe ic m Am &C eri arr ca . Loss of life 0 Afr ica As ia So uth NPa CA cifi c m Am &C eri arr ca . Economic Losses Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc Eu rop e Emerging Opportunities for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services …. • Traditionally, disaster risk management has been focused on post disaster response in most countries! • New paradigm in disaster risk management - Investments in preparedness and prevention through risk assessment, risk reduction and risk transfer …. – Adoption of Hyogo Framework for Action in 2005-2015 by 168 countries (Kobe, Japan) Implementation of the new paradigm in DRM would require meteorological, hydrological and climate information and services! Shift From Post Disaster Response to Ex Ante Investments in Disaster Prevention and Preparedness (Development Issue) National to Local Levels Alignment of Multi-sectoral coordination, planning, legislation, resources Risk Assessment Risk Reduction Risk Transfer Hazard databases Hazard statistics 1 Climate forecasting and trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning CAT insurance & bonds 2 MITIGATION AND 3 PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) 4 Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training Socio-economic Impacts of Climate-Related Extremes on the Rise ! Energy Hazard intensity and frequency increasing linked to climate variability and change! Aral Sea Transportation Water Resource Management Intensity Strong Wind People Heavy rainfall / Flood Agriculture Urban areas Vulnerability and exposure on the rise ! Drought Need for Multi-sectoral risk management Heatwaves Frequency Understanding the Risks is Fundamental! Hazard Analysis and Mapping Exposure and Vulnerability Potential Loss Estimates Number of lives at risk $ at risk Heavy Precipitation and flood mapping NMHS provide hazard data, statistical analysis and forecasts Impacts: population agricultural land urban grid Infrastructure Businesses Need for Socioeconomic impacts data Destruction of buildings and infrastructure Reduction in crop yields Business interruption Analysis and Tools for Emergency Management and Sectoral Planning Th er st St or ro m ng or w lig ind ht s ni n D g ro H ug ea h Fl t w t R ash ave iv er flo flo od o H din ai ls g D tor en m se C Sm ol fo g d ok H e, eav wav e H Du y az s ar st o no ds r w t o Ha z Ea a vi e a C oa r th tio n s q Fo T tal ua r k o f re p lo es La st o ica od nd r w l c ing sl i y id l dl clo a n e or nd e m fir Fr ud e ee sl z id St ing e or r W m ain at su er r A irb bor To ge or ne rn ne h ad s az o M ubs ard ar s in ta n ce e ha s Sa z a nd rds s A tor va m la n D Vo Ts ch es l c er an un e a tl oc ic e mi us ve t s nt w s ar m un d Number of countries that archive data for the specified hazard National Meteorological and Hydrological Services provide hazard data and analysis to support risk assessment Over 70 % of NMHS globally, are challenged in delivering these services! 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Main Challenges: • Modernisation of observation networks • Data rescue • Data management systems • Maintaining standard hazard database and metadata • Hazard analysis and mapping tools Statistical analysis Climate modelling Source: 2006 WMO Country-level DRR survey (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html) Many countries are still in response and relief mode! COMMUNITIES AT RISK National Government (emergency systems) disaster response Disaster response National Technical Services Meteorological Hydrological Geological hazard warning Marine Health (etc.)… Local government Billions of USD per decade Economic losses related to disasters are on the way up… Geological 495 500 Hydrometeorological 450 400 345 350 300 250 200 160 150 100 50 0 103 88 4 56-65 11 14 24 66-75 47 76-85 86-95 96-05 decade Millions of casualties per decade 3 While casualties related to hydrometeorological disasters are decreasing 2.66 Hydrometeorological 2.5 2 1.73 1.5 1 0.39 0.5 0 0.67 0.65 0.05 Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Geological 56-65 0.22 0.17 66-75 76-85 0.25 86-95 0.22 96-05 decade Early Warning Systems Require Coordination Across Many Levels and Agencies National to local disaster risk reduction plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms 1 3 2 4 Shift to Preparedness through Investments in all Components of Early Warning Systems ! National Government DRR coordination mechanisms 1 Aligned policies, plans, resources, coordination 4 warnings 4 5 2 feedback 5 Coordinated National Technical Agencies and Ministries Meteorological 4 Hydrological warnings Geological Marine Health, Agricuture (etc.) feedback 5 Local Government responsible for emergency preparedness and response 3 Community Prepared Guidelines on Institutional Coordination and Cooperation in Early Warning Systems Role of NMHS Guidelines on Institutional Aspects EWS with Multi-Hazard Approach Planning, legislative, financing, Institutional Coordination and Roles Synthesis of Good Practices and Role of National Metrological and Hydrological Services Bangladesh Cyclone Preparedness Programme Cuba ropical Cyclone Early Warning System France “Vigilance System” Shanghai Multi-Hazard Emergency Preparedness Programme First EWS Publication of a series being published by WMO in cooperation with Members and international agencies. Training workshops on Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (2009-2010) Focus: Planning, legislation and Institutional partnerships and coordination at national to local levels Targeting: Directors of Disaster Risk Management agencies and National Metrological and Hydrological Services, Media, other relevant ministries Training Programme: • Training on good practices and “Capacity development in MultiHazard Early Warning Systems with Focus on Institutional Coordination, Cooperation” • Interactive session to assess national capacities, gaps, priorities • Identification of opportunities for regional cooperation • Outcomes are linked to development projects Early Warning Systems need to be designed with a multi-hazard approach Consideration for: • Leveraging Resources and Capacities • Cost-effectiveness • Inter-operability • Maintenance and sustainability Warning systems have focused on protection of lives BUT… Climate information and forecasting tools provide unprecedented opportunities to support sectoral risk assessment and management! • • • • • • Agricultural productivity and food security Infrastructure and Urban planning Land zoning Tourism Health epidemics Water resource management Advancements in climate modelling and forecasting provide unprecedented opportunities for Disaster Risk Management Short to medium term weather forecasts Seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts Decadal climate trend analysis Climate change scenarios Next hour to 10 days Season to year Decade Long term climate change Short-term planning Emergency Preparedness Medium-term operational planning Risk assessment and management Long-term strategic planning Infrastructures planning, retrofitting Land zoning Decision-making Timelines International negotiations with national policy implications Requirements of Financial Risk Transfer Markets For Meteorological and Climate Information Which Risks? Financial risks What type of Financial tools? Who Could Benefit? CAT insurance & bonds Government Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Companies Individuals Regional Catastrophe Insurance Facilities Other Requirements for Hydro-Met Services? Historical and real-time data (Fundamental for development of these markets!) Medium-term Weather and Seasonal Forecasts Long term trend analysis (long-term market strategy) Other emerging products WMO Workshop: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/events/cat-insurance-wrm-markets- 2007/index_en.html Requirements for Meteorological and Hydrological information to support Financial Risk Transfer Dec 2007, WMO Headquarters Participants: (8 re-insurers, 13 Met Services, WFP, World Bank, UNDP, WRMA) USER Perspectives: • • Information requirements (data and forecasts): – Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data – Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, Other data value-added services (??) – Reliability, authoritative and timeliness of data (for contract design and settlement) – Medium-term Weather and Seasonal Forecasts – Long term trend analysis (long-term market development strategy) Technical support and Service delivery Meteorological Services Perspectives: • Need for awareness raising among Met services • Resources, ability and priorities to deliver • “Commercial” ,“Security” and “Turf” Issues associated with data accessibility http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/dpm/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html Global Framework for Climate Services User interface in Disaster Risk Management National Regional International Example of Climate Information users in DRM •Development Banks & Agencies •Humanitarian Agencies •Multinational Companies (Agriculture, energy, transport, reinsurance/finance, etc) •Regional Development Banks •Regional Economic groupings Their needs and requirements •Global risk assessment •Global climate data and analysis •Climate outlooks •Forecast information •Regional risk analysis •Regional DRM Agencies •Regional outlooks and forecasts •River basin organisations •Regional data •DRM Agencies •Ministries of Agriculture, Health, Environment, Tourism, Water,etc •Risk assessments •national •local •sectoral •Cities & Local Governments •Early warnings •Private sector •Outlooks •Public •Data Mechanism for coordination and user interface •ISDR •UNDG •IASC Observations & Monitoring •UNGPDRR •Global Reports (GAR, HDR, etc) Climate •Regional DRR Platform •Regional Cooperation Projects •National DRM coordination mechanisms / Platforms (MultiSectoral) •Sectors and national projects Services Information System Research, Modeling & Prédiction Key Messages: 1. Disaster Risk Management is a development issue 2. Capacity development of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be part of the national development agenda and programming WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme was established in 2003 to … DRR Programme’s Strategic Foundation Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (World Conference on Disaster Reduction) WMO Strategic Plan 2008-2015 (Top Level Objectives and Five Strategic Thrusts) Consultations with WMO governing bodies, Regional and National network and partners WMO strategic priorities in Disaster Risk Reduction WMO Strategic priorities and Action Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction Approved by WMO Congress - XV To implement DRR priorities through regional and national projects, with following end results: 1. Modernized NMHSs and observing networks. 2. Strengthened national operational multi-hazard early warning systems. 3. Strengthened hazard analysis and hydro-meteorological risk assessment capacities. 4. Strengthened NMHSs cooperation and partnerships with civil protection and disaster risk management agencies. 5. Trained management and staff of NMHS 6. Enhanced ministerial and public awareness WMO DRR Strategy Key Questions: • Can National Meteorological and Hydrological Services meet these demands? • How to engage National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the National DRR/Development Agenda? WMO Country-level DRR Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) 139 countries participated Assessed Capacities, Gaps and Needs of National Meteorological Services to support disaster risk management: 1. National policies and legislation 2. Infrastructure & institutional capacities in monitoring, forecasting, communications 3. Hazard databases 4. Forecasting and Warning Capacities 5. Human resources (technical, managerial) 6. Operational partnerships with disaster risk management stakeholders http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Country Responses 44/48 92 % 18/22 82 % 25/34 74 % 10/12 83 % 24/52 54 % 14/19 74 % 139 /187 Countries responded 74% response rate http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Country Responses Number of surveys received Total number of countries % Response Global (WMO Members) 139 187 74% Developing countries 85 137 62% Least Developed countries 25 50 50% Africa (RA I) 28 52 54% Asia (RA II) 25 34 74% South America (RA III) 10 12 83% Central and North America (RA IV) 18 22 82% 14 19 74% 44 48 92% Scope South-West Pacific (RA V) Europe (RA VI) Country-Level Capacity Assessment (2006) http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html Under estimated Category Planning & Legislation Infrastructure: Observation Forecasting Telecom. Data, Analysis and Technical Capacities Partnerships & Concept of Operations % countries 1 Need for development in all areas 12 2 Need for improvements in all areas 42 3 4 Self sufficient Need for improvements in these areas Self sufficient Could benefit from sharing of good practices practices and guidelines 26 20 Around 60% of the NMHS are challenged in meeting needs in DRM! WMO DRR Strategy Key Questions: • Can National Meteorological and Hydrological Services meet these demands? • How to engage National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the National DRR/Development Agenda and systematicall and sustainably develop their capacities? WMO DRR Strategy: Engaging in National and Regional Development Projects with partners that influence National Programmes and Funding Partners World Bank (GFDRR) ISDR Agency Type Coordinatio n Development Coordination X Development X WFP, FAO Agriculture UN- OCHA, IFRC Humanitarian UNDP Donors (EC, etc) Regional Centers and agencies National DRR Implementatio n Funding X X X X X X X X X X X Donor X X X Criteria for DRR Project Development (1) Alignment with WMO Strategic priorities in DRR (2) Built on priorities, and needs of regions and countries (3) Built on partnerships and integrated planning, budgeting, implementation (leveraging WMO and partners’ expertise and resources) (4) Result-based approach (Deliverables, timelines, evaluation) (5) Must be scalable (6) Plans for sustainability of capacities overtime (6) Ensure end-to-end solutions leading to better decision-making (7) Extra-Budgetary resource mobilization strategy for implementation (if needed) Two Tier approach to training and capacity development 1) Develop training materials 2) Link training workshops to regional and national development projects Systematically linking know-how to capacity development projects Monitoring and Evaluation of national practices National and Regional training and development Projects Linking Training systematically with Institutional Capacities development projects Development of Guidelines and standards Identification and Documentation of latest technologies, Good Practices and learning Lessons WMO Guidelines and training in DRR Available for • Early Warning Systems – First training materials on institutional aspects will be published in 2009(with Springer Verlag)- Joint training between NMHS and DRM – Various technical training available through WMO Programmes and Commissions • Standardization of Hazard data, metadata and analysis tools (Technical Commissions) – Guidelines for floods, droughts, tropical cyclones and storm surges and other meteorological hazards underway through Technical Commissions • Training materials for NMHS in support of financial risk transfer markets – Experiences of several National Meteorological Services will be documented in 2010 in light of several pilots facilitated through World Bank, WFP and other. Systematic Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects with World Bank, ISDR, UNDP and WMO Central Asia and Caucasus South East Europe South East Asia Central America and Caribbean IGAD SADC Systematic Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects (Europe) DRR Pilot South East Europe: 8 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO) DRR Pilot South East Asia: 5 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO) (Asia-Pacific) End-to-end EWS Pilot Central America: 3 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO, NOAA, IFRC) (North America & Carribeans) (South America) DRR Pilot Central Asia and Caucasus: 7 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO) (Asia) Shanghai Mega City Multi Hazard-EWS demo (Africa) Sever weather/Flash Flood Guidance /storm watch technical training (SADC) 2007 2008 2009 2010 End-to-end EWS 2011 Sample Projects South Eastern Europe Disaster Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Programme World Bank / ISDR / WMO / UNDP Programme – initiated in 2007 • Three Components: – Risk Management Capacities – Hydro meteorological services – Catastrophe Insurance facility and financial risk transfer • 11 countries: Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, FYR Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia, Kosovo (as defined by UNSCR 1244/99), Slovenia, Turkey Phase I: Assessments • Detailed national assessment • Funded by GFDRR SEEDRMAP Phase II EC Enlargement Project • Regional Programme on Disaster Risk Reduction in SEE (EC DG Enlargement 2 M € funding) 8 Countries Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, FYR of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Kosovo (as defined by UNSCR 1244/99), Turkey – UNDP Component 1: Building Capacity in Disaster Risk Reduction through Regional Cooperation and Collaboration in South East Europe – WMO Component 2: Regional Cooperation in South East Europe for meteorological, hydrological and climate data management and exchange to support Disaster Risk Reduction • World Bank National DRR Projects – Albania, Croatia, Moldova SEEDRMAP Phase II EC Enlargement Project • To facilitate the establishment of a Regional Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction in the Western Balkans and Turkey. • To support development of national platforms • To increase the availability of reliable regional level data that is crucial for Vulnerability Assessment, Disaster Planning and Early Warning. • To enhance contribution of NMHS to DRR at national and regional levels. Expected Outcomes of the SEE Project • National experts are trained in: WITH UNDP – Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems – Flood hazard data, metadata and mapping tools – Drought hazard data, metadata and mapping tools • National proposals prepared for: – development of Early Warning Systems – development of risk assessment capacities • Proposal for concrete initiatives for regional cooperation in SEE region Pilot Project on End-to-End Early Warning Systems for Hydro-Meteorological Hazards: Central America Costa Rica, El Salvador, Nicaragua • Objectives: Development on end-to-end EWS – Operationally linking NMHS capacities to support community emergency preparedness and action – Development and demonstration of inter-agency Concept of Operations among national to local partners • Hazards: Tropical Cyclones and Flash Floods • Partners: – National: NMHS, Disaster Risk Managment Agencies, Red cross – International/Regional: World Bank, IFRC, UNDP, OCHA, WFP, ISDR – Technical: NOAA, NASA Servir (TBC) • Status: Assessments completed and Detailed proposal developed with partners and submitted for funding to GFDRR El Salvador Nicaragu a Costa Rica Climate Risk management Project in Africa WMO/World Bank Project in Africa Funded by GFDRR • Countries: Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda • Objectives: Development of climate information Sudan based on observations and latest climate tools and forecasting technologies • Sectors: Agriculture and water resource management • Timeline of data: Different climate scales up to Uganda 20 years: Rwanda • Partners Burundi – National: NMHS, sectors representatives – International/Regional: World Bank, – Technical: GlobalClimate Centers (US, UK, ECMWF, Pretoria) and Regional centers (IGAD) • Status: Project was launch on June 2009 Eritria Djibouti Ethiopia Tanzania Somalia Kenya Good Practices in EWS Shanghai Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (Mega City) •Governance : (mega) city-level. •Organisational: Top-down (monitoring, forecasting, warning) and bottom-up •Operational: Community-based + high tech monitoring and alerting tools Multi-Hazard Approach: Services are specialized but shared for alert dissemination and response mechanisms. Thank You For more information please contact: Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief, Disaster Risk Reduction Division Tel. 41.22.730.8006 Fax. 41.22.730.8023 Email. [email protected] http://www.wmo.int/disasters