SDC/2008/168 SNA User Needs for Monetary and Financial Policy-making Steven Keuning Director-General Statistics, ECB High Level Forum for the Long-Term Development of the SNA 17-18 November.
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Transcript SDC/2008/168 SNA User Needs for Monetary and Financial Policy-making Steven Keuning Director-General Statistics, ECB High Level Forum for the Long-Term Development of the SNA 17-18 November.
SDC/2008/168
SNA User Needs for
Monetary and Financial Policy-making
Steven Keuning
Director-General Statistics, ECB
High Level Forum for the Long-Term Development of the SNA
17-18 November 2008, Washington D.C.
Outline
SNA 2008: immediate follow-up
SNA user needs for
Monetary policy-making
Fiscal policy monitoring
Financial stability assessment
Five key issues in the further development of the national accounts
SNA action plan
Future SNA governance structure and issues for discussion
SNA 2008: immediate follow-up
SNA implementation phase in the coming years (2009 to 2014)
EU countries according to the ESA revision and ECB legal acts
Aligned implementation plans for other standards (BPM), at least in EU
Regular (e.g. quarterly) compilation of global aggregates
The ECB drafts various (parts of) chapters of the new ESA
Financial transactions, balance sheets and other flows
Financial institutional units and groupings of units
Pensions
European accounts
The ECB as a compiler and user of national accounts
Already reflect on future research agenda and governance
Financial issues and their intertwinement with ‘real economy’ increasingly key
The ECB/Central Banks partly involved in SNA 2008 process and governance
ECB member of the UNSC (EU-delegation) and AEG, but not of ISWGNA
Participation in various international committees and working groups
Actively involved in drafting, commenting and consultation (on financial accounts)
SNA user needs for monetary and financial policy-making (i)
Monetary policy-making …
Economic analysis, monetary analysis, cross-check of outcome of economic
analysis with that of monetary analysis, analysis of the channels through which
monetary policy influences prices and economic activity, forecasting
… requires:
Complete set of fully consistent quarterly financial and non-financial sector
accounts and balance sheets
Accounting matrices with full from-whom-to-whom accounts (debtor-creditor
principle), to analyse intersectoral transmissions/interactions/frictions
Sub-sectoring of corporations (foreign/ public/private, SMEs) and households
(type of income, financial position), because of their heterogeneous reactions
Capturing financial innovation (true sales, synthetic securitisation; repos)
Timely data, but also long time-series
Close link with monetary data: implies minimal imputations and re-routings
Review of contribution of financial capital as a production factor;
SNA user needs for monetary and financial policy-making (ii)
… and:
Fiscal policy monitoring
Both general government and public sector (specific set of accounts for
non-financial and financial public corporations)
Close link to accounting standards for the public sector
Pensions
Other social benefits (health, long-term care, social assistance)
Structural reforms, privatisations, nationalisations
Government provisions and contingencies (implicit liabilities, guarantees)
as memo items
SNA user needs for monetary and financial policy-making (iii)
Financial stability assessment
SNA concepts and definitions do not entirely follow requirements for macroprudential analysis (‘group’-consolidated accounts as satellite accounts?)
However, core accounts still useful in assessing macroeconomic soundness
Quarterly institutional sector accounts
Macro-prudential indicators derived from financial balance sheets and transaction
accounts (indebtedness or leverage of corporations)
Accounting matrices (counterparty knowledge is crucial: impact of decisions of
economic subsectors, e.g. to alter the level and composition of their portfolios, on
the counterparty subsectors)
Concept of institutional units and not of establishment units
Supplementary data on multinationals
Continental or even world-wide registers
Holdings, SPVs, conduits
5 Key issues in the further development of national accounts
1. Main purpose: macroeconomic communication, policies & research:
Whole-economy perspective is key (at the micro-level: ‘costs are costs’, at the
macro-level ‘costs can be receipts’ -> avoid the ‘fallacy of composition’)
SNA to include inter-sectoral interactions (full matrix, beyond flow-of-funds)
2. Core national accounts focus on measurable, monetary flows/stocks:
Incomplete welfare concept, but key for economic & monetary policy-making
Linkage to monetary flows (e.g. turnover) possibly to be strengthened
3. Modern economies are mostly service- and not industry-oriented:
Human capital as decisive production input: wages/employment by labour type
Institutional unit much more relevant than establishment unit, even for
production (differential access to finance, intangible capital): more subsectors
(distributions matter), less attention to ISIC (economics is not engineering)
4. Review treatment of risk (derivatives, off-balance sheet, FISIM)
5. Economies are intimately interlinked, particularly financially:
Rethink validity of concepts (e.g. reinvested earnings) in a globalised world
Regular compilation of ‘consolidated’ accounts and continental/global accounts
SNA action plan
Implementation
Limited set of standard tables for all countries (implementing SDMX)
Emphasis on (quarterly) integrated sector accounts and balance sheets
Timeliness, consistency (market valuation) and from-whom-to-whom (accounting
matrices); increasingly distinguishing relevant sub-sectors
Standardised satellite accounts (environment, possibly unpaid labour)
Additional tables according to regional/national needs (e.g. ESA)
Regular compilation of world and (world-)regional accounts and indicators
Research agenda (revising current SNA long-term research agenda)
Complete coverage of key production factors (financial/non-financial capital,
labour by type) and related productivity measures
Units: is the establishment unit still meaningful? Role of multinationals, SPVs
International linkages: can globalisation and ‘national’ accounts be reconciled?
Production-income-revaluation split
Risk-production split (derivatives, premiums, financial services, insurance)
Asset boundary (intangibles, human capital, environment) and asset prices
Future SNA governance structure and issues for discussion
Governance should reflect
SNA user and compiler needs for monetary and financial policy-making
Increasing importance of financial issues and financial services
Revision process, seasonal and working-day adjustments
Desirability of aligned international standards (SNA, ESA, BPM, GFS, MFS)
ISWGNA: structure and process should reflect these needs
Sufficient expertise required in sector accounts, particularly financial accounts
Issues for discussion
1.
2.
3.
Five key issues in the further development of national accounts
Implementing the research agenda (task forces on specific key issues?)
Future governance structure and revision process (role of the ISWGNA)