Transcript Nr.Proiect: D11-025 Titlu proiect: Algoritm de calcul pentru simularea numerică a ciclurilor seismice in vederea identificării elementelor cu caracter precursor. Director proiect: Dr.

Nr.Proiect:
D11-025
Titlu proiect:
Algoritm de calcul pentru simularea
numerică a ciclurilor seismice in vederea
identificării elementelor cu caracter
precursor.
Director proiect:
Dr. Ing. Cărbunar Florian Octavian – Institutul
Naţional de Cercetare Dezvoltare pentru Fizică şi
Inginerie Nucleară – “Horia Hulubei”
Parteneri de consorţiu:
1 – Institutul National de Cercetare Dezvoltare pentru Fizica
Pământului.
Responsabil: Director Ştiinţific Dr. Radulian Mircea.
2 – Universitatea Bucureşti, Facultatea de Geofizică.
Responsabil: Prof. Dr. Ivan Marian
Buget: 1 800 000 lei
Adresă web:
http://proiecte.nipne.ro/pn2/acsics
• Obiectivul proiectului:
Realizarea unui algoritm de calcul performant pentru modelarea numerică a
ciclurilor seismice, cu ajutorul tehnicilor performante de calcul (paralel, Grid),
capabil să explice proprietăţile specifice ale sistemului seismogenic din zona
Vrancea şi care poate fi optimizat pe baza datelor de observaţie existente.
• Elemente de noutatea ale proiectului, originalitate:
Direcţie de cercetare fundamentală complet nouă la nivel naţional şi din multe
puncte de vedere inovativa la nivel internaţional (unde se abordează, în
principal, problema faliilor de suprafaţă).
• Beneficiarii rezultatelor, potenţialul de aplicare în economie:
Finalizarea practică va pune la dispoziţia comunităţii ştiinţifice şi factorilor de
decizie, modelarea completă a evoluţiei activităţii seimice in Vrancea, va
contribui la creşterea nivelului de cunoaştere a configuraţiei şi structurii zonei
active şi a predicţiei evoluţiei viitoare a procesului seismic, cu consecinţe extrem
de importante pentru economie, pentru evaluarea riscului seismic asociat.
Etapa 1 (sept-dec 2007):
 Buget de stat 140 000 lei: 80 000 (IFIN-HH)/50 000 (INFP) /10 000 (UB)
Realizarea unei baze de date proprii, ACSICS, conţinand cutremurele
vrancene de adâncime intermediară (peste 7200 evenimente cu adancimi
intre 50 si 170 km)
- Participarea la reuniunea de toamnă AGU (San Francisco, SUA) in perioada
10-14.dec. 2007 (Dr. Cărbunar O. şi Dr. Radulian M.)
- Vizita de lucru la Univ. Davis în perioada 15-18.dec. (Dr. Cărbunar O. şi Dr.
Radulian M.) la invitatia Prof. John Rundle, Dir. Center for CS and Eng. al
Univ. din California, Dir. ACES/APEC. S-a prezentat algoritmul de simulare
propus pentru zona Vrancea si s-a efectuat un schimb de experientă extrem
de util.
Etapa 2:
 Buget de stat 359 083 lei: 201 850 (IFIN-HH)/127 233 (INFP)/30 000
(UB)
- Revizuire
catalog: Vizită de lucru la Lab de Seismologie, Univ. Nevada
- Comunicare prezentată la SSA Annual Meeting, Santa Fe, Dr. Cărbunar O., Dr.
Radulian M.
- - Grafica 3D elaborata în colaborare cu Dr. Tadel Matevz, CERN-Geneva
- - Definirea domeniilor de variaţie a parametrilor.
- - Program (EQSIM), compară –la statistici mari- rezultatul codului de Simulare a
gGGenerării Cutremurelor din Vrancea, cu datele de Catalog, rulat în ambianţă
(SEE-GRID-2: Turcia, Bulgaria, Romania ).
- - Achiziţii 80 396 lei: Software – Matlab; Echipament: Server Dell XPX pentru
grafică, notebooks, multifucţională/imprimantă, switch, monitoare, ups.
- C-Colaborare cu NCIT , Catedra CS, Univ. Politehnica (Dr.Sluşanschi Emil)
Fig1 Dr Olivier Couet (CERN) a realizat un program care
reprezentă volumul zonei seismice active şi poate face
intersecţia cu 3 planuri orogonale, fiecare vizualizând
clusterele de magnitudine constantă
Zona inferioara: Frecventa cutremurelor
(PAW: Dr. Rene Brun, CERN)
Figura 2 Zonele active (gnuplot 3D): sus / jos
Pattern Recognition Program
Executat in ambianta grid ptr. fitarea rezultatelor simularii cu datele reale de catalog
Main : Lansare de n ori, loop, a Programului de Simulare ce genereaza EQ’s intr-un
Ciclu Major, incepand de fiecare data cu alta samanta (seed) ptr. functia random
function .
Main: Determina seed, valorile minime si medii de fitare, ptr. coordonate si magnitude;
precum si alte statistici de interes.
Program de Simulare (2D): Pornind de la seed genereaza si inregistreaza in
fisierul fort.90 EQ’s, incepand imediat dupa un EQ catastrufal:
- cicle complet (1940 - 1884)
- ciclu deschis (1986 – 2008)
Pentru ciclurile ce indeplinesc anumite conditii de control lanseaza
Programul de Patern Recognition
Programul de pattern recognition: Compara in succesiune
de timp EQ’s (coordonate and magnitudine) generate de
Programul de Simulation, cu EQ’s reale, din Catalog:
- fort.7 (ciclu complet)
- fort.2 (coiclu deschis)
prin EQ’s echivalente intretesute.
ti
EQCeti-ti+2
ti+1
ti+2
ti+3
EQSeti3-ti4
ti+4
Exemple benchmark, in SEEGrid: 100000 executi, seed destart 55555
8887.55user 33.02system 2:28:41elapsed 99%CPU RO-07-NIPNE
8544.04user 72.43system 3:07:33elapsed 76%CPU TR-01-ULAKBIM
11624.17user 64.86system 3:31:00elapsed 92%CPU RO-08-UVT
EQCeti5
ti+5
timp
Catalog
tiimp
Simulare
EQCeti-ti+2 + EQCeti5  EQCe(sx,z,mag)
~
EQSeti3-ti4(sx,z,mag)
Etapa 3:
 Buget de stat 310 917: 168 150(IFIN), 112 767(INFP), 30 000(UB)
- Prof. David Van Seggern (Seismological Lab. Reno, SUA) implementează
programul său pentru relocalizarea cutremurelor din catalogul ROMPLUS,
folosind tehnici de double-diference şi cross-correlation.
- Elaborare algoritmului (2D) de simulare numerica a generării cutremurelor din
Vrancea, pe baza unui model de percolatie cu constrangeri.
- Studii privind definirea grilei, relaţiile constitutive şi de calibrare, refacerea zonei
de faliere, analiza tipurilor de ciclu seismic.
- Comunicare prezentată la AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, 15-19
December, 2008
- Negociere preţ-educaţie (1/6) TotalView & ReplayEngine debugger ptr. calcul
paralel (32+6 tokens)
ol.png
dl.png
Bilant ANTE
SOC Bilantul final
STA
RT
Comunicar
e
Vecinat
ate
Setarea initiala
Saturarea
asperitatilor
Cluster
e
Inserare
Cluster
monoasperitate
Scanare fisier
inregtistrari
Cluster
e
Vecinat
ate
Monocelule
Cluster
e
Scrie POST
SOC
Evidenta
asperitatii
1
Banca celule
albe
POST
SOC
Construct
ie
Scanare banca
asperitati
Vecinat
ate
Cluster
e
Aparitie
celule gri
Scriere fisier
de inregistrari
3
EVENIM
ENT
MAJOR
Selectie
metronom
2
A
B
Setare ptr.
evenimente
asperitate
Urmatorul
metronom
EVENIME
NT
ASPERITA
i
TE ii
Evenimen
t
asperitate
EVENIME
NT
ASPERITA
TE
CLUSTER
C
ASPERITA
TE
Urmatoare
a gri
v
Asperitate
doborata
Administrat
eveniment
a.b.c.
Vecinat
ate
asperit
ati
Reset
marcaj
celule gri
Scriere fisier
inregistrari
Vecinatate
asperitate
Indexul de
ponderi
Scanarea
fisier
inregistra
ri
corectat in
fisier
inregistrari
EN
D
h
Urmatoare
a directie
neagra
v
iiiiv
iiiiv
d.e.f.g
LEGEND
A
post
soc
Celule
neutre
Bloc
program
Bucla
program
Bucla
multipla
Decizie
Subrutina
3500
3000
. cicluri
Nr.
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90 100 110 120
durata ciclului (ani)
Distribuţia duratei ciclului pentru 10.000 de cicluri simulate
6
3
slope = -1
slope = -1.1
4
log N
log N
2
2
1
0
0
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
magnitude
5.0
5.5
6.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
magnitude
Comparaţie între distribuţia frecvenţă de apariţie – magnitudine, Gutenberg-Richter,
pentru un catalog real (perioada1995 - 2008) – şi pentru 10000 de simulări
• Buget de stat 87 754: 55 926(IFIN), 31 828(INFP)
-Studiu: Analiza algoritmilor existenţi in literatură.
-Evaluarea cutremurului catastrofal, luând în considerare efectele ante- si
post-cutremur, utilizând procesarea paralelă şi bibliotecile MPI, pe
clusterul Myrinet instalat la DFPEIT, IFIN-HH.
Sunt efectuate 4 tipuri complexe de activitati paralele.
Exemplu de calibrare: 8 clustere la AE, 1 la Major şi 6 la PE. Listing
eşantion
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Distribuţia în grila a contribuţilor: Ante-Efect, Major si Post-Efect la calculul cutremurului Catastrofal
FLAG= 1
IR= 555
466 1359
albe: GRILA IMITIALA ARE NR.ELEM.A=4241,PRIMUL IALB0=1
KM= 2150
…
KTOTAL 621
KA=2103
FLAG= 2
KA=, KM= 2103 2150
…
albe: GRILA IMITIALA ARE NR.ELEM.A=4241,PRIMUL IALB0=1
NR.GRUPA CAZUT LA A-E SI NR.ELEMENTE 1 9
NR.GRUPA CAZUT LA A-E SI NR.ELEMENTE 2 1
NR.GRUPA CAZUT LA A-E SI NR.ELEMENTE 3 8
NR.GRUPA CAZUT LA A-E SI NR.ELEMENTE 4 1
NR.GRUPA CAZUT LA A-E SI NR.ELEMENTE 5 1
NR.GRUPA CAZUT LA A-E SI NR.ELEMENTE 6 4
EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1907
EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1828
EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1749
EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1668
EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1588
EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1670
EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1671
EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1592
EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1750
EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1751
EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1590
NR.GRUPA CAZUT LA A-E SI NR.ELEMENTE 7 2
NR.GRUPA CAZUT LA A-E SI NR.ELEMENTE 8 1
EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1538
EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1459
EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1460
EXEC2: DUBLU LA AE PUR=1457
EXEC2: DUBLU LA CATASTROFAL=2725
EXEC2: DUBLU LA CATASTROFAL=2565
…
NR.ELEM.GRI CAZUTE LA CATASTROFAL= 161
NR.ELEM.GRI CAZUTE LA ANTE-EFECT= 242
NR.ELEM.DUBLE ANTE-EFECT PUR= 15
NR.ELEM.DUBLE CATASTROFAL= 11
CATASTROFAL -K,IGRADS/G/- 2150 171 161 267
EXEC2, POST-EFECT: NR.ELEM.CLUSTER NEGRU
DOBORAT 7
EXEC2: DUBLU LA PE=3205
EXEC2: DUBLU LA PE=3124
EXEC2: DUBLU LA PE=3125
…
NR.ELEM.GRI CAZUTE LA POST-EFECT= 154
NR.ELEM.DUBLE LA POST-EFECT= 58
POST-EFECT -NR,IGRADS/G/- 6 177 154 293
ANTE-EFECT -NR,IGRADS/G/- 7 269 242 422
BILANT FINAL-K,IGRADS/G/- 2103 617 557 982
KTOTAL 621
STRUCT.DE REZISTENTA -DUPA CUTREMUR CATASTROFAL:
K,E,P = 3 1 8
K,E,P = 32 2 13
…
GR.GRI -DUPA CUTREMURUL CATASTROFAL:
K,E = 2 5
K,E = 3 1
…
Negre=,Gri= 117 2150
NR.ELEM.A= 3333
End: total= 0.117981002 user= 0.115982004 system= 0.00199900009
Distributiile: mag/timp, nr.eq/ani, nr.eq./mag Grila: initiala/finala/bilant Catastrofal
Esantion listing
Analiza configuratiei activitatii seismice si a structurii corpului
litosferic subdus cu un algoritm original de calcul
Sunt evidentiate efectele de torsiune a corpului litosferic si
neomogenitatile distributiei hipocentrelor
-Doua segmente active separate de o zona de tranzitie in jurul
adancimii de 100 km
-Schimbarea orientarii si inclinarii planului de activitate seismica
-Concentrarea hipocentrelor la zonele de granita dintre corpul
litosferic si mantaua inconjuratoare
Introduce la consola:
-input file;
-limite: a – nr de iteratii; b- precizie.
Initializari:
-coef. a,b,c cu valori determinate 3pct din plan Matevz; d=-1000,
- mark=mark3=markt=0; b- precizia calculului; dist2minbak=MaxVal
START
2
1
Initializarea la fiecare iteratie:
-directia variatiei if(mod(mark3,3).eq.0/1/2) a=a/b/c+inc
sqrtdelta=sqrt(a**2+b**2+c**2)
- variabile dist=dist2=icnt=icntef=ti=tf=0
Read fisier_date (considersate doar EQ’s cu lat/lon# 0)
Loop: Calculeaza dist,dist2,icntef ptr.fiecare EQ’s
EOF
Write fort.7 : a,b,c,dist,dist2
REWIND INPUT
Initializare prima trecere: mark=1
distmin /dist2min=dist/dist2
a/b/cdist2min=a/b/c
mark=0
Inceput iteratie: directie gresita:
inc=-inc; a/b/c=a/b/c+inc
mark=1 & dist2.gt.dist2min
mark=2
Write fort.7: a/b/cdist2min, dist2min
if(mod(mark3,3).eq.0/1/2) a/b/c=a/b/cdist2min
Initializata iteratia urmatoare:
dist/dist2min=dist/dist2
a/b/cdist2min=a/b/c
dist2.lt.dist2min
markt.eq.3
markt=markt+1
200
mark3=mark3+1, mark=1
dif/dif2=dist/dist2minbak-dist/dist2min
dist/dist2minbak=dist/dist2min
dif2.lt.lim0
abs(dif).lt.lim
0
Write fort.7: icntef, mark3
STOP
Organigrama algoritmului de determinare a planului median
Distribuţia cutremurelor faţă de:
- 1 plan median global
- 2 plane mediane, zonele: sus/jos
- 3 plane mediane zonele: sus/intermediară-jos
xnp
Distributia cutremurelor (din sectiune) dupa axa xnp indica activitatea seismica la periferia slab-ului
Proiecţia hipocentrelor ca model pentru setarea iniţială a grilei. Cod colori:
magnitudine (a)
< 3.0
3.0 - 3.9
3.9 - 4.5
4.5 - 5.0
5.0 - 6.0
culoare
galben
verde
mov
rosu
albastru
distanţă (b)
< 2.0
2.0 - 5.0
5.0 - 10.0
10.0 - 20.0
20.0 - 40.0
GUI: Instantaneu slab, perioada 1974-2007. Profunzimea timpului este ilustrata prin culoare, in succesiunea
descompunerea spectrale a luminii albe (violetul marcand evenimentele c.m.vechi, iar rosu c.m recente CERN Open GL
In cadrul colaborarii cu NCIT (National Center for Information
Technology) al Catedrei de Calculatoare, Univ. Politehnica Buc.
partener Dr. Sliusanschi Emil, s-a prezentat proiectul ACSICS la
Scoala de Vara 2008 si in cadrul Fac. de Automatica si
Calculatoare. Ca rezultat:
- Doi studenti au prezentat la sesiunea de incheiere a scolii de
vara, lucrari cu subiect din proiect.
- Alti 2 studenti (Nadejde Maria si Pasatoiu Andrei) si-au sustinut
cu succes lucrarea de diploma in sesiunea din 2009 vara, cu
subiecte din proiectul ACSICS.
- In ultima perioada se implica in acest domeniu tot mai multi
tineri pentru lucrari de diploma, masterat si doctorat (Mocanu
Eleonora).
Articole:
 EGU2007-A-05522: "Numerical simulation method applied for Vrancea (Romania) intermediate-depth
earthquakes", Carbunar, O. IFIN-HH; Radulian, M." INFP Romania, Conference: "EGU General
Assembly 2007" (European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2007, Viena 15-20 April 2007).
 “Seismicity patterns in Vrancea and predictive features”, Radulian M., Popa M. INFP Romania,
Carbunar F.O. IFIN-HH Romania, Rogozea M, Progress on seismic and geotectonic modeling across




CEI territory and implications on preventing and mitigating seismic risk, 3nd International CEI Meeting,
Bucuresti, 24-26 octombrie 2007, Acta Geod. Geoph. Hung., Vol. 43(2–3), pp. 163–173 (2008).
“Earthquake simulation algorithm and cycle characteristics in Vrancea (Romania) area”, Cărbunar F.O.
IFIN-HH Romania, Radulian M. INFP Romania, 2008 Annual Meeting, Santa Fe, 16-18 April, 2008,
Seismological Research Letters Volume 79, No. 2 on page 292
‘Space-Time Seismicity Patterns Ideentification in Vrancea (Romania) Seismic Region Using HighResolution Revised Catalog Data’, Carbunar F.O. IFIN-HH, Bucharest, Radulian M. INFP, Bucharest,
Van Seggern D. Seismological Laboratory, Reno, SUA, Ivan M. Fac. of Geophysics, Bucharest
University, AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, 15-19 December, 2008.
“SKS splitting observed at Romanian broad-band seismic network”, Ivan M. University of Bucharest,
Department of Geophysics, Popa M., Ghica D.,INFP, Bucharest, Romania, Tectonophysics 462, 89-98,
2008.
“Geometrical constrains for the configuration of the Vrancea (Romania) intermediate-depth seismicity
nest. Mediane plane as tool in investigating the slab”, Carbunar O. IFIN-HH, Radulian M. INFP,
Bucharest, Romania. Trimis spre publicare.