Transcript A Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) Leonard Barrie and Ghassem Asrar Directors of Research World Meteorological Organization [email protected] or [email protected] WWRP-WCRP Workshop on Seasonal to.

A Global Framework for Climate Services
(GFCS)
Leonard Barrie and Ghassem Asrar
Directors of Research
World Meteorological Organization
[email protected] or [email protected]
WWRP-WCRP Workshop on Seasonal to Sub-seasonal Prediction,
UKMO, Exeter 1-3 Dec. 2010
Acknowledgement:
Recent reports from G.Love (WMO Secretariat), Angus Friday(HLT), Jan Egeland (HLT)
OUTLINE
• Mandate for WCRP/WWRP collaboration
on seasonal-subseasonal forecasting
• The origin of GFCS
• The scoping of GFCS by a high level
intergovernmental task force (HLT) and the
current state of progress.
• Next steps in GFCS development
• Some features of the evolving GFCS
concept
A Report of the
Executive Council Task
Team (EC-RTT)
on
Research Aspects of an
Enhanced Climate,
Weather, Water and
Environmental Prediction
Framework
June 2009
C. Core Service Delivery Mechanisms For Forecasts/Predictions
WMO DPFS
GFCS
Earth System Science
B. Research Communities Meet
WWRP-THORPEX, GAW
Numerical Weather Prediction
WCRP, GAW
Climate Modelling
A. Mix of Research & Operations
Research
Operations
Research
Nowcasts
Day to Month
Weather Forecasts
Seasonal/Inter-annual
Prediction
Research
Operations
Decadal
Prediction
Decadal
To Century
Time Scale Dependence Of Three Different Characteristics Of Weather,
Climate, Water and Environmental Prediction Activities
~105 Participants; 39 Delegations; 5 Proxy Delegations (121 CAS Members)
Incheon Korea November 2009
Outcome of CAS XV on Research at the
Weather-Climate Interface
7.3.3 CAS requested the JSCs of the WWRP and the
WCRP and also the THORPEX ICSC to set up an
appropriate collaborative structure to carry out an
international research initiative on sub-seasonal to
seasonal forecasting. It recommended that this is
closely coordinated with the existing CBS infrastructure
for long-range forecasting (with centres producing longrange forecasts and regional climate centres) and with
the future developments in WMO climate service
delivery and the Global Framework for Climate Services
called for in the High-Level Declaration of WCC-3.
OUTCOMES OF THE THIRD
WORLD CLIMATE CONFERENCE – Aug. 2009
• Conference statement
from an Expert Segment
• Conference Declaration
from a Hi-Level Segment
recommending a GFCS to
be implemented through a
high level task force (HLT)
• Conference report and
proceedings
CONCLUSIONS FROM THE EXPERT
SEGMENT
• Present capabilities to provide effective climate
services fall far short of meeting present and
future needs
• There is an urgent need for much closer
partnership between the providers and users of
climate services
• Major new and strengthened research efforts are
required to increase the time range and skill of
climate prediction
• Observations are an essential component
Inter-governmental Meeting on GFCS
11-12 January 2010 Geneva
• Set the Terms of Reference for a High Level
Taskforce (HLT)
• Established the Membership of the Taskforce
based on a proposal by the WMO’s SecretaryGeneral
• Agreed that WMO Secretariat in Geneva will host
an Inter-governmental secretariat for the HLT
www.wmo.int/hlt-gfcs/
Composition of the Taskforce
• Michel Jarraud (WMO Cochair)
• Joaquim Chissano
(Mozambique)
• Angus Friday (Grenada)
• Ricard Lagos (Chile)
• Khotso Mokhele (S. Africa)
• Cristina Narbona Ruiz
(Spain)
• Qin Dahe (China)
• Jan Egeland (Norway) Co-Chair
• Eugenia Kalnay (Argentina/USA)
• Julia Martin-Lefevre
(Hungary/France/USA)
• Chiaki Mukai (Japan)
• Rajendra Singh Paroda (India)
• Emil Salim (Indonesia)
• Fiama Naomi Mata’Afa (Samoa)
• Mahmoud Abu-Zied (Egypt)
Why a FRAMEWORK for Climate
Services?
• Important research does not move rapidly
to climate services for the most vulnerable
• Climate services do not get the last mile to
those who need them the most because
there are gaps in the:
– global distribution of scientists, engineers and
other tertiary educated people
– observation networks supporting climate
services
Jan Egland Co-chair HLT
Scope of Work of the HLT
In one year do the following:
• Define the components of GFCS and their roles,
responsibilities, and capabilities within the GFCS
• Clearly illustrate how GFCS will assist the
integration of climate information and services into
national planning, policy and programmes
• Develop options for governance
• Outline a plan for implementation
• Take into account the special needs of Africa,
Small Island Developing States (SIDS), Least
Developed Countries (LDCs), and Land-Locked
Developing Countries (LLDCs);
STRUCTURE OF THE HLT REPORT
Part I
A succinct description of the current global climate services
capability –The supply side
Part II
Discussion with a series of case studies illustrating as to why the
Global Framework for Climate Services is required (Fill the
gaps)– The demand side
Part III
This section should provide a clear vision of what the new global
framework would look like – The Implementation Strategy and
Options for Governance.
Principles Adopted In Developing
The Implementation Strategy
1. All countries will benefit, but priority should be given to the
needs of climate-vulnerable poor countries;
2. The primary focus must be greater access and use of climate
information by users;
3. Framework activities should address three spatial scales:
global, regional and national;
4. Climate information is primarily a public good and should be
made widely available;
5. The Framework should respect national and international
data policies while encouraging global, free and open
exchange of climate-relevant data; and,
6. The role of the Framework should be to facilitate and
strengthen and not duplicate.
Timeline (from 1 November 2010)
• 1 Nov Draft HLT Report on the web for government and
expert review.
• 22 Nov. Review period ends
• 30 Nov. Final-1 version completed by the HLT secretariat
• 1 Dec. Final-1 version of report sent to HLT members
• 13-15 Dec. HLT-5 Geneva. HLT members comment on
Final Report and discuss follow-up activities.
• 12 Jan. 2011 FINAL version of the Report completed
taking into account of feedback from HLT-5.
• May 2010 Present to the WMO Congress (Cg 16) and to
Secretary-General of the UN.
GFCS components
Global, Regional and National Levels
GFCS Priorities
In the first four years give priority
to:
• Agriculture
• Disaster risk reduction
• Water
• Health
GFCS Implementation Goals
The GFCS will establish:
1. A global system to routinely
generate and exchange
climate data and data products
2. Upgrade the climate service
capacities in low-capacity
countries to a baseline level
3. A governance mechanism
Objective for 2016
• A global, operational climate services
system.
• Continuous upgrading of climate services
in developing countries.
• User oriented creation of new services.
• A governance mechanism that drives
Framework development.
Governance Option A:
Intergovernmental Board
Governance Option B:
Joint Board
GFCS components
(Schematic from presentation of Jan Egland)
C. Core Service Delivery Mechanisms For Forecasts/Predictions
WMO DPFS
GFCS
Earth System Science
B. Research Communities Meet
WWRP-THORPEX, GAW
Numerical Weather Prediction
WCRP, GAW
Climate Modelling
A. Mix of Research & Operations
Research
Operations
Research
Nowcasts
Day to Month
Weather Forecasts
Seasonal/Inter-annual
Prediction
Research
Operations
Decadal
Prediction
Decadal
To Century
Time Scale Dependence Of Three Different Characteristics Of Weather,
Climate, Water and Environmental Prediction Activities
Thank
You