Transcript International Workshop On Measuring GDP by Final Demand Approach 25-27 April 2011 Shenzhen, China Country Presentation Presented by Yamuna Rajapakse, Statistician Udaya Warnasiri, Statistical Officer National Accounts Division,Sri.

International Workshop On Measuring
GDP by Final Demand Approach
25-27 April 2011
Shenzhen, China
Country Presentation
Presented by
Yamuna Rajapakse, Statistician
Udaya Warnasiri, Statistical Officer
National Accounts Division,Sri Lanka
Outline
Introduction
Historical background of compilation of Final
Consumption of households (Private Consumption
Expenditure) PCE
UN-SNA1993 suggestions and formats on PCE
Data sources for compilation of PCE
Presentation Formats/Framework for PCE in our
practices
Compilation methodology of PCE
Issues
1
Introduction
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita at current
prices was US $ 2,399 for the year 2010 in Sri Lanka.
Compilation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Estimates
are being compiled by using three approaches of
compilation of GDP. The Product approach is supply side
estimate of GDP and the expenditure approach is
demand side compilation approach of Gross Domestic
Product /Expenditure (GDE).
GDE consists of Main five sub components 1) Private
Final Consumption Expenditure (PCE) including Non
Profit Institutions Serving Households (NPISH) 2)
Government Final Consumption Expenditure 3) Gross
Capital Formation (GCF) 4) Exports 5) Imports
2
 Historical
background of
compilation of PCE
Compilation of National Accounts Estimates (NAE)for
Sri Lanka was introduced in1947 by Dr. B. B. Das
Gupta. This was published as an appendix to the report
of the Commission on Social Services in 1947 and this
includes NAE series 1937- 1938 and 1943– 1944. (Vide
Sessional paper No. Xii, 1947). This was continued on
a regular basis and released through a publication on
National Accounts of Sri Lanka by K. Williams then the
director of Department of Census and Statistics (DCS).
DCS has adopted this framework for the compilation of
NAE until late 1950,s. This includes only few tables
such as Gross Domestic Expenditure (GDE), Imports,
3
Exports, Domestic consumption etc.
 Historical
background of
Compilation of PCE
GDE estimates was compiled and released by
using expenditure approach at current market
prices for Sri Lanka. Until 1958 these estimates
were compiled only at purchaser prices. During
this period, price changes were at insignificant
level or less than 5%.
First constant price GDE estimate series was
started from 1963 as the base year. This
publication includes only six tables.
4
 UN-SNA1993
Suggestions and
formats on PCE
 Scope of PCE is “Use of Goods and Services for
direct satisfaction of human needs and wants”
Values at Purchasers prices or current market prices
and all estimates at accrual basis.
This includes expenditure of residents abroad and
excludes expenditure of non-residents in the
country.
Suggested Classifications are CPC- Central Product
Classification and COICOP- Classification of
Individual Consumption by Purpose
5
UN-SNA1993 Suggestions and
formats on PCE
Production of Household Services
Eg. However, production of services for own
final use is excluded,
a. Cleaning and small scale maintenance by
own tenants and owners
b. Cleaning & Services for household durables
vehicles by owners.
c. Preparation of meals, caring and
instructions for children
d. Caring of sick & old people etc.
e. Transportation of household members. 6
Data sources for compilation of PCESri Lanka
 Product approach Estimates and their Expenditure Estimates or
Users of Production-DCS
 Household Income and Expenditure Surveys (HIES)- once in
every five years-DCS
 Foreign trade data /Imports and Exports- Customs Department
 Socio demographic data/ Mid year population/External
migration (less than one year)/ Tourist arrivals , Government
Budget estimates- Actual
 Government transfers -Balance of Payment (BOP)-CBSL
 Price Statistics-DCS
7
 Presentation Formats/Framework for PCE
in our practices
The following selected tables are the relevant tables
on PCE and those are presented below.
Summary indicators of GDP
Gross Domestic Expenditure at Current Market
Prices and Constant prices (Two Tables)
Private Final Consumption Expenditure at Current
Market Prices and Private Final Consumption
Expenditure by ICP sub Headings.
Supply and Use/Disposition (Agriculture)
8
 Presentation
Formats/Framework for
PCE- our practices
 PCE is given in this table as a total under PCE which was compiled
by using expenditure approach for GDP at current and constant
(2002) prices.
TABLE 6 - EXPENDITURE ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CURRENT PRICES
Rs. Million
Item
2002
Value
1. Private consumption expenditure
2008
% Share
Value
% Share
2009@
% Change
Value
% Share
% Change
1,166,027
71.3
3,085,296
70.0
28.4
3,103,806
64.3
0.6
2. General government consumption
expenditure
208,085
12.7
713,788
16.2
30.6
851,549
17.6
19.3
3. Gross domestic fixed
capital formation
328,406
20.1
1,115,310
25.3
26.1
1,147,440
23.8
2.9
40,000
2.4
99,937
2.3
-13.6
36,214
0.8
-63.8
5. Exports of goods and
services
571,195
34.9
1,095,679
24.8
5.2
1,030,861
21.4
-5.9
6. Less: Imports of goods and
services
677,676
41.4
1,699,328
38.5
20.2
1,344,785
27.9
-20.9
Gross Domestic Product
1,636,037
100.0
4,410,682
100.0
23.2
4,825,085
100.0
9.4
4. Changes in stocks*
@ Provisional
* Including statistical discrepancy
9
 Presentation Formats/Framework for
PCE in our practices
TABLE 14 - PRIVATE CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE BY OBJECT AT CURRENT PRICES
Rs.Million
2002
Object of Expenditure
Value
2008
%Sha %chan Value
re
ge
%Sha Value
re
2009@
%Shar %chan
e
ge
1 Food, Beverages and Tobacco
557,445
47.8
1,166,112
37.8
18.5
1,186,103
38.2
1.7
2 Clothing and Footwear
100,541
8.6
176,419
5.7
14.2
173,795
5.6
-1.5
3 Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and
125,275
10.7
392,249
12.7
47.4
372,418
12.0
-5.1
34,753
3.0
177,537
5.8
20.0
183,105
5.9
3.1
17,527
1.5
56,687
1.8
40.8
68,277
2.2
20.4
170,084
14.6
671,890
21.8
45.9
654,835
21.1
-2.5
31,669
2.7
110,417
3.6
29.4
90,001
2.9
-18.5
1,672
0.1
2,836
0.1
14.2
3,103
0.1
9.4
20,682
1.8
45,528
1.5
17.9
46,553
1.5
2.3
40,096
3.4
149,835
4.9
48.7
170,691
5.5
13.9
115,523
9.9
236,946
7.7
10.5
250,977
8.1
5.9
49,239
4.2
101,160
3.3
9.9
96,053
3.1
-5.0
4
Furnishings, Household equipment
and Routine maintenane of the house
5 Health
6 Transport
7
Leisure, Entertainment and Culture
8 Education
9 Hotels, Cafes and Restaurants
10 Miscellaneous goods and services
11 Expenditure abroad of residents
12 Less: Expenditure of non - residents
13 Total Private Consumption
Expenditure
@ Provisional
1,166,027
100
3,085,296
100
28.4
3,103,806
100
0.6
10
 Presentation Formats/Framework for PCE
in our practices
TABLE 15 - PRIVATE CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE BY OBJECT AT CONSTANT (2002) PRICES
Rs.Million
2002
Object of Expenditure
Value
2008
%Sha Value
re
2009@
%Sha %chan Value
re
ge
%Shar %chan
e
ge
1 Food, Beverages and Tobacco
557,445
47.8
623,865
39.5
3.2
635,796
39.7
1.9
2 Clothing and Footwear
100,541
8.6
147,111
9.3
4.5
145,834
9.1
-0.9
3 Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and
125,275
10.7
151,359
9.6
11.2
145,834
9.1
-3.7
4 Furnishings, Household equipment
34,753
3.0
118,431
7.5
4.0
112,180
7.0
-5.3
5 Health
17,527
1.5
38,692
2.5
34.4
46,474
2.9
20.1
170,084
14.6
255,005
16.2
5.2
270,834
16.9
6.2
31,669
2.7
59,406
3.8
17.1
54,487
3.4
-8.3
1,672
0.1
1,998
0.1
8.0
2,026
0.1
1.4
20,682
1.8
12,571
0.8
3.6
12,821
0.8
2.0
40,096
3.4
82,168
5.2
38.1
89,744
5.6
9.2
115,523
9.9
144,133
9.1
7.8
142,629
8.9
-1.0
49,239
4.2
56,589
3.6
0.3
56,090
3.5
-0.9
7.5
1,602,568
6 Transport
7 Leisure, Entertainment and Culture
8 Education
9 Hotels, Cafes and Restaurants
10 Miscellaneous goods and services
11 Expenditure abroad of residents
12 Less: Expenditure of non - residents
13 Total Private Consumption
Expenditure
@ Provisional
1,166,027
100
1,578,150
100
100
1.5
11
 Presentation Formats/Framework for PCE in
our practices
TABLE 9 - SUPPLY AND DISPOSITION OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR COMMODITIES AT CURRENT PRICES - 2009
Rs.Million.
Supply of Commodities
Value
Commodity Groups
Inputs
Taxes and
Added
at
Valuation
Gross
Subsidies
Tax
Imports
Output
Subsidy
Total
Supply
Impor
ts Adjustme
nt
C.I.F. Duty
and
Value
Dispo-
Factor
sition
D i s p o s i t i o n of C o m m o d i t i e s
Intermediat Household
e
Final
Consumptio Consumptio
n
n
Change
Gross
Export
in
Domestic
Fixed
Capital
F.O.B.
Stocks
Wastage
Value
Formation
01. Tea
7,795
64,156
-
-
71,951
-
-
-
71,951
71,951
-
-
-
-
-
02. Rubbr
5,070
19,278
-
-
24,348
-
-
-
24,348
24,348
-
-
-
-
-
03. Cocount & Toddy
9,883
49,983
-
-
59,866
-
-
12,181
72,047
21,268
49,378
313
-
932
156
19,650
127,319
-
26,935
120,034
-
-
-
120,034
99,478
8,626
11,929
-
-
-
05. Tobbaco
147
773
-
-
920
546
-
229
1,695
1,595
-
80
-
20
-
06. Betel & Arecanut
159
3,024
-
-
3,183
-
-
2,091
5,274
29
4,641
(241)
-
845
-
80,852
107,384
-
-
188,236
1,175
-
101,097
290,508
26,098
263,302
-
62
1,046
206
3,253
-
-
3,459
1,446
-
1,317
6,222
1,386
4,616
-
54
99
09. Highlandcrops
6,917
52,185
-
50
59,052
3,589
-
41,252
103,894
5,474
96,045
-
-
1,855
520
10. Minor Export crops
1,454
13,263
-
177
14,540
-
-
3,765
18,305
-
3,765
1,558
-
12,982
-
11. Plantation devolopment
3,723
11,782
-
613
14,892
-
-
-
14,892
-
-
-
14,892
-
-
12. Firewood &forosty
1,577
35,861
-
-
37,438
-
-
5,166
42,604
23,813
18,518
13. Livestock
55,929
52,412
-
-
108,341
-
-
28,700
137,041
19,913
14. Fisheries
26,713
79,571
-
106,267
1,815
-
4,751
112,833
5,223
205,772
04. Paddy
07. Vegetable
08. Fruits
17
15. Miscellaneous
Agricultural Products
Total
66
145
-
128
-
117,128
-
-
-
-
34,412
62,585
-
-
15,836
-
26,115
12,535
13,580
-
-
-
-
1,047,761
342,299
642,184
13,850
14,892
32,715
1,822
5,556
15,336
-
-
20,892
-
225,630
635,580
-
27,792
833,418
8,571
-
12
 Compilation
methodology of PCE
PCE by objects is a table prepared
indicating summarized sub categories of
PCE. This is compiled by using the
production estimates which is having
separate estimates to indicate users or
distribution of production, exports and
imports. This is being compiled in detailed
for ICP sub categories (155 sub headings)
of PCE using the similar kind of procedure.
13
 Compilation methodology of PCE
The supply and disposition Table includes
the supply of group of products which was
complied by using commodity approach and
their users or demand side information was
also given. So the demand side information
includes the Private consumption expenditure.
This was compiled using the production
estimates of products or group of products and
the relevant data sources were given earlier.
14
 Issues
Identifying these sectors, data
collection framework should be
strengthen/developed to cover these
underground, illegal, informal sectors &
household production for own use.
•Activities of Non observed economy are;
•1. Under ground and 2. Illegal
•3. Informal and
•4. For undertaken by households for
their own final use.
•These are problem areas where data
15
gaps can be seen.