6. Stating the State of E-Learning: Today and Into the Future Curt Bonk, Ph.D., [email protected] Indiana University and CourseShare.com http://CourseShare.com http://php.indiana.edu/~cjbonk.
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6. Stating the State of E-Learning: Today and Into the Future Curt Bonk, Ph.D., [email protected] Indiana University and CourseShare.com http://CourseShare.com http://php.indiana.edu/~cjbonk What is happening in higher education? http://courseshare.com/Reports.php or http://PublicationShare.com Sample of Other Recent Surveys 1. A Survey of Traditional and Distance Learning Higher Education Members, 2000, The National Education Association. 2. Quality on the Line: Benchmarks for Success in Internet-Based Distance Education, 2000, Report from Institute for Higher Education Policy; sponsored by NEA and Blackboard. 3. Surveying the Digital Future, 2000, 2001, UCLA. 4. Distance Education at Postsecondary Institutions: 1997-98, published in 1999, National Center for Educational Statistics. A Vision of E-learning for America’s Workforce Report of the Commission on Technology and Adult Learning, (2001, June) • A remarkable 84 percent of two-and four- year colleges in the United States expect to offer distance learning courses in 2002” (only 58% did in 1998) (US Dept of Education report, 2000) • The percentage of post-secondary students enrolled in distance ed is expected to triple from just 5 percent in 1998 to 15 percent in 2002. Survey Finds Concern on Administrative Computing Chronicle of Higher Ed, June 22, 2001, A33, Jeffrey R. Young “Campus-technology leaders say they worry more about administrative-computing systems than about anything else related to their jobs.” (survey by Educause—an academictechnology consortium) Survey #1: 222 College Faculty (Early Adopters of the Web) Survey Limitations • • • • • Sample pool Web savvy The Web is changing rapidly Lengthy survey Some were administrators Does not address all issues Higher Education Fantasies • • • • • • Faculty just need a bit more training. Young faculty will jump on this. Pedagogical tools exist to TEACH online. Faculty will flock to sophisticated tech. Faculty are loyal. Web instruction is an either/or decision. Figure 3. Size of Respondent Institutions 20% Less than 3,000 students 3,000 - 9,999 students 54% 26% N = 218 More than 10,000 students Figure 7. Rank of Respondents 10% Professor or Assoc Professor Assistant Professor 5% 8% Adjunct Professor 17% 60% Lecturer Other (e.g., adminof Respondents Figure 8. Educational Attainment plus faculty) 2% 22% 6% 70% Baccalaureate Masters ABD Doctoral How Old Are Early Web Adopters? Respondent's Age 2% 7% 20-35 36-50 47% 44% 51-65 66+ N=218 Why post to MERLOT.org or the WLH? Reasons N = 211 (*Note: Categories are not m utually exclusive.) O th er Fu n th G ro w Ex pe rim en t Co ur s M ar ke tS e el Sh f ar Sh in g ar Im e po Th rta eo nt rie s or St ra te gi es 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Re qu ire d Num ber of Respondents Why Post to MERLOT or WLH* Internet Access • 78 percent had Internet access in their current or most recent classroom. • 93 percent had computer lab accessibility. • 97 percent had home access. – Note: This is more than double the 47 percent of Americans who are users of the Internet at home as reported in a recent UCLA study (The UCLA Internet Report, 2000). Are you a Web Hog??? (do you hog the modem pool?) Study Says Net Users are Stressed, but Not Depressed, Los Angeles Times. reported negative “The previously outcomes associated with the Internet had all but New study: More time online… disappeared…except for the • Extroverts = better less lonelier, & higher association withmood, increased stress” self-esteem. • Introverts = the lonlier, more unhappy, used Net more for entertainment not social contact. Any Online Teaching Experiences? Figure 18. Online Teaching Experiences Partially and Completely 18% None 24% Completely Online 19% Partially Online 39% Figure 19. Degree of Comfort with Web Skills Courseware Online Discussion File Attachments Chat HTML 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Percent of Respondents Low Medium High 100% Who Owns Online Courses? Online Courses are the Property of an Institution, Not an Instructor (N= 215) Strongly Agree Agree 4% Strongly 12% Disagree 34% Unsure 21% Disagree 29% Is Teaching Online TimeConsuming? Figure 20. Teaching Online Courses is More TimeConsuming than Teaching Traditional Courses Strongly Disagree 2% Strongly Agree 41% Disagree 6% Unsure 10% Agree 41% 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Strongly Agree Agree Unsure Disagree Profit Learning Access Strongly Disagree Percent of Respondents Figure 23. Primary Insitutional Motives for Developing Online Education 50 40 30 20 10 0 Strongly Agree Agree Unsure Disagree Bachelor's Master's Doctoral Strongly Disagree Percent of Respondents Figure 15. Comfortable with Degrees Earned Entirely Online Courseware Systems • 83 percent were provided a Web-based platform or courseware system • 22 percent more than one. • 27 of those making a decision had more than one. • 10 percent had access to three courseware systems or conferencing tools. Courseware Features Like with Current Tool • • • • • • • • Comprehensive, consistent, customizable Ease of use, flexible, reliable Data and course security Detailed statistics on bulletin board use Good online help Internal e-mail systems, drop boxes, chats Posting of tasks & due dates on Web Randomized test banks What Percent of Time Teach Online? Percent of Respondents Figure 21. Percent of Instructional Time Spent Teaching Online During the Next Decade 80 60 40 20 0 1 Year 2 Years 5 Years 10 Years Time Teaching Online 0% 1-25% 25-50% 51-75% 76-100% Interested in Freelance Instruction? Freelance or Adjunct Web-Based Teaching 100% Percent of Respondents 90% 80% 70% 60% Yes 50% No 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Past Experience Interest in Next 5 Years Obstacles rs e of O st th e r po rt In te re p e Pr e t ffi ce ip m en O ic al Su p ck ch n La eb So ftw ar ou Eq u W ai ni ng n Tr ar e eb Le ar w la ss ar d W to fo rC Te Ti m e C H e Ti m Percent of Respondents Any Obstacles to Teaching Online? Figure 32. Major Obstacles to Use of the Web in Teaching 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Problems Faced Administrative: Pedagogical: • “Lack of admin vision.” • “Lack of incentive from admin and the fact that they do not understand the time needed.” • “Lack of system support.” • “Little recognition that this is valuable.” • “Rapacious U intellectual property policy.” • “Unclear univ. policies concerning int property.” • “Difficulty in performing lab experiments online.” • “Lack of appropriate models for pedagogy.” Time-related: • “More ideas than time to implement.” • “Not enough time to correct online assign.” • “People need sleep; Web spins forever.” Te ch In ni ca st ru lS ct up io na po l rt D Ti es m e ig ne to Le rs Tr ai ar ni n ng W eb to U se St W ud eb en tA C cc ha es tR s oo O m nl in H e el R p es ou Em rc ai es lC ha ng In R es ec st ru og ct ni io tio na n lS tip en R el ds ea se Ti m e Percent of Respondents Figure 35. Supports Needed for Web-Based Teaching By Institution Type 100 80 60 40 20 0 Private Public Does technical support vary by size?? Percent of Respondents Figure 33. Perceived Lack of Support for Technical Problems and Courseware Development by Institutional Size 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 under 3,000 3,000-9,999 Institutional Size 10,000 or more 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Le C TO Fa cu lty D ep tL ev ar ni el ng C en Te te ch r Su pp or t in under 3,000 3,000-9,999 10,000 or more Ad m Percent of Respondents Figure 26. Organizational Level of Instructional Technology Decisions Related to Web-Based Teaching by Size of Institution Compensation No Add'l Compensation Other Release Time Recognition Salary Course Royalties Stipends Percent of Respondents Figure 17. Suggested Instructor Compensation for Teaching Online 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Online Technology Pushes Pedagogy to the Forefront Frank Newman & Jamie Scurry, Chronicle of Higher Education, July 13, 2001, B7. “Many faculty members are still concerned whether the technology is simple and reliable enough to use for more-sophisticated learning tasks. Increasingly, however, better software is emerging that engages students in more effective learning.” Percent of Respondents Figure 30. Online Instructional Activities 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Scientific Simulations Data Analysis Actual Use Lab Performance Critical and Creative Thinking High Usefulness What Instructional Activities are Needed? Pedagogical Ideas Answers to Teaching Problems Expert Advice Class Management Tips Recognition Newsletters Storytelling Percent of Respondents Figure 36. Important Features of Free CourseSharing Community 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 General Recommendations 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Develop Instructor Training Programs Foster Instructor Recognition and Support Create Instructor & Resource Sharing Tools Develop Online Learning Policies Conduct Online Learning Research Form Online Learning Dev Partnerships Create/Test Online Learning Pedagogy Survey #2: 201 Trainers, Instructors, Managers, Instructional Designers, CEOs, CLOs, etc. More Survey Limitations • • • • • Low Response Rate Web Interested Sample Broad Backgrounds Lengthy Survey Tech Limitations Figure 38. Instructional Strategies Perceived as Fairly Equally Supported by Online and Traditional Classroom Environments 80 Percent of Respondents 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Exploration Student Generated Content Case-Based Guilded Learning PBL Modeling Online Traditional Equal Figure 39. Instructional Strategies Perceived as Better Supported by Online than Traditional Classroom Environments Percent of Respondents 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Group Prob Solving & Collab Socratic Questioning Role Play & Simulations Discussion Coaching or Mentoring Lecturing Online Traditional Equal Figure 40. Important Characteristics of WebBased Learning Curiosity/Fun Variety/Novelty Interactive/Collab. Choice/Flexibility Personal Growth Goal-Driven Responsive Feedback Relevant Materials 0 20 40 60 Percent of Respondents 80 100 Figure 41. Activities Learners Would Deem Highly Engaging and Useful E-mail Pals/Peer Review Voting/Polling Symposia/Panels Students Leading Discussion Electronic Guests/Mentoring Group Projects/Teams Brainstorming Cases or Job Reflections 0 10 20 30 40 50 Percent of Respondents 60 70 Figure 35. Instructor Tools with High Growth Potential Trainer Profiles Demonstrations Feedback and Annotations Critical/Creative Thinking Trainer Task Collaboration 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Percent of Respondents Indicating High Usefulness for a Particular Tool or Resource But Not Currently Using It So what happens to the University??? Note: any predictions are bound to be too conservative!!! Universities Replaced? No... • • • • • • • Most distance lrng is mixed--Web & Live Brick and mortar needs to be used Online learning only approximates live lrng Expanding birth rate = need for more educ. Web learning is for select reasons Most colleges will find their niche Socialization argument – (the 18-20 year old need to party hardy) Universities Replaced--Yes! • Web has more potential for active lrng. • Tchg/lrng expectations are changing fast! • Expanding birth rate – Payoffs from experiments in 3rd world countries. • • • • Web courses can be repurposed/reused. Web learning will increase in stability Real chance to overthrow the system!!! Who needs more football and drinking? Forces Acting Against Replacement • • • • • Yes, radical change, but room for both High actual costs of online learning Difficult to be animated on the Web Hard to measure benefits Tenure & hard to change practices, procedures, expectations • Institutional Politics • Eye damage reports due to overexposure How are costs calculated in online programs??? Forces In Favor of Replacement • • • • • • • States not funding as highly as before Wireless technology; add’l emerging tech Global economy and marketplace Commercialization of best lrng products Innovative faculty; stalling universities Demand for learning/just in time info Lots of wasted space in university offices Faculty Member in 2020 • • • • • • • • Track 1: Technical Specialist Track 2: Personal Guide Track 3: Online Facilitator Track 4: Course Developer Track 5: Course or Program Manager Track 6: Work for Hire Online Lecturer Track 7: High School Teacher Track 8: Unemployed Student Differences in 2020 • Live Longer • More Educated – Multiple Degrees – Accustomed to Multiple Learning Formats – Design own programs and courses • Specialists AND Generalists • Courses/Degrees for unknown occupations • Expect to Take Courses Where Live • Cyber-students (various digital aids attached to appendages) Typical Technology in 2020 • Global Chat, Interplanetary Chat – Guest Lectures from Mars, Space Shuttle, Moon • • • • Global Instructors (with online skill ratings) Intelligent Tutors, Butlers, and Agents E-Course Generators and Object Sharing Lifetime Cyberlearning Stats & Educ Genealogies • Language Translation Tools • Online Essay Plagiarism Check & Scoring Possible Roles of University in 2020 • • • • Meeting place (degrees conferred, picnics, etc.) Certificate grantor Online tech support desk Matchmaking: pair students with instructors & other students for counseling/mentoring • Research online learning communities • Outward bound-like experiences (tours and experiences of what universities used to be like) Possible Scenarios by Year 2020 • • • • • • Virtual U’s and Traditional U’s Coexist Traditional Univ’s buy stake in Virtual U’s Traditional Univ’s form Consortia Some Trad U’s Move Ahead, Some Don’t Other Technology arise well beyond Web Large Virtual U’s Buy Competing Traditional U’s and shut them down What Uses for Old Institutions of Higher Learning??? • • • • • • • Museums Historical Monuments Bomb Shelters Resorts and Apartment Complexes Nostalgic Retirement Homes Green Space Prisons Final Advice • • • • • • • Use blended or flexible approaches. Distribute success stories. Read published reports. Negotiate partnerships. Find ways to share resources. Help build better e-learning tools. Try things out & let me know what works. So, any questions about the state of things?