Transcript Framework and assessment methodology for policy coherence for development: Draft Report for OECD 16th June, Paris Nick Bozeat.

Framework and assessment methodology for
policy coherence for development:
Draft Report for OECD
16th June, Paris
Nick Bozeat
Presentation Overview
 Introduction
 Existing assessment tools relevant to the application
and the assessment of PCD
 A general framework for assessing the progress of
PCD
 Measuring the progress of PCD in specific sectors
 Recommendations
Introduction
 Need for PCD clear, taken as starting point
 Report considers evaluation of PCD, and
 Evaluation to improve PCD
 Key challenges:
– evaluation has scrutiny and learning objectives
and needs motivation
– PCD one factor affecting development
– PCD at national level one component of PCD
Existing relevant assessment
tools
 Baseline assessment:
– the assessment of the presence of PCD processes in OECD countries is
informed through peer reviews. There is scope for the application of
process evaluation and benchmarking.
– The conditions that pertain in developing countries can be informed by
analyses of secondary source data and case studies.
– The links between member state policies and effects in developing
countries can be informed by substantive theory and research, expert
panels and the categorization of developing countries.
…continued
 Prospective evaluation:
– the identification of anticipated economic, social and environmental
impacts on developing countries can be informed by theories of change,
logic models, in some cases econometric models and scenario
development.
– The identification of the costs and financial returns of policies and
initiatives can be informed by cost benefit analysis, monetization of social
impacts and monetization of environmental impacts.
– The identification of risks and trade-offs can be informed by risk
assessment and multi-criteria analysis.
…continued
 Retrospective evaluation:
– The identification of economic, social and environmental impacts
can be informed by indicator systems, social surveys, business
surveys, environmental surveys, analyses of secondary source
data and econometric analysis.
– The retrospective assessment of the processes that increase or
decrease PCD can be informed by: case studies in OECD
countries; case studies in developing countries; comparative
studies and peer reviews.
– The identification of coherent, incoherent, conflicting and
reinforcing effects can be informed by case studies in developing
countries and multi-sectoral research.
…continued
 ‘Composite’ assessment and evaluation
methods that are occasionally applicable,
 These include: Environmental Impact
Assessment; Strategic Environmental
Assessment; Poverty Impact Assessment; Aid
for trade accountability tool; and Trade
Sustainability Impact Assessments.
 The European Commission approach to the
Impact Assessment of its main policy,
financial and legislative proposals is also
useful to the evaluation of PCD.
A general framework for
assessing PCD
 Relevant success criteria: progress in developing
countries
– Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
– ‘Capitals’ approach.
– Convergence
– Progress with respect to ‘global public goods’
…continued
 Relevant success criteria: application of processes
in OECD member states
– The three phase ‘PCD cycle’ that provides a potential basis for
assessing the application of PCD processes in member states.
– The definition of PCD and hence the ‘levels’ that derive from the
OECD’s horizontal programme on policy coherence
…continued
 Evaluation methods and conditions to improve the
application of PCD
– explicit consideration of the repercussions of sectoral policy choices
on developing countries at the time policies are being developed/
revised (and this being a requirement)
– the sharing of results of such assessments through peer reviews;
– consultations being required between policy makers at sectoral level
and those responsible for development aid;
– multilateral negotiations anticipating explicitly the effects of policy
choices on MDGs; and,
– developing countries generating evidence on the foreseen and
unforeseen consequences of sectoral policy choices.
…continued
 Evaluation methods and conditions to assess the
progress of PCD
– a requirement to retrospectively examine key sectoral policies and
their effects on development goals;
– arrangements for oversight at country level of the interactions
between sectoral policies insofar as they affect development goals;
– a programme of evaluation work at multilateral level focused on the
most pressing instances of policy incoherence.
Measuring the progress of
PCD in Agriculture
 Short- and medium-term effects are reasonably easy to
anticipate and measure, subject to uncertainties in
climatic conditions (droughts, floods etc) and crop
failures, as data on food exports and prices and
associated employment and income are good.
 Long-term consequences of policy instruments are
more difficult to anticipate because of vulnerabilities to
climate change and possible changes in diet, demand,
environmental conditions and transport costs. These
factors may be strongly influenced by policies in OECD
member states.
Measuring the progress of
PCD in Migration
 Econometric models have the potential to
help anticipate the impact of policies on
coherence. But methods for predicting
migration flows and the consequences of
policy changes are imprecise and there is a
problem of poor data on migration flows,
actual remittances, and the numbers of illegal
migrants.
 The effects of policies on different types of
countries should be distinguished depending
upon historic and geographical links and
differentials in levels of GDP per capita.
Recommendations
 Research on key linkages
 Comparisons between PCD in OECD Member
States via checklists and clusters of peer
reviews
 Emphasis ex ante evaluation where policy
options exist as part of policy formulation
DISCUSSION