Transcript Korea Pedestrian Working Group Economic Appraisal for Technical Regulation on Pedestrian Protection (I): focused on head protection Cheol Oh, Ph.D., [email protected] Korean Pedestrian Working Group.

Korea Pedestrian Working Group
Economic Appraisal for Technical
Regulation on Pedestrian Protection (I):
focused on head protection
Cheol Oh, Ph.D., [email protected]
Korean Pedestrian Working Group and
Center for Advanced Transportation Research Center
The Korea Transport Institute
The Korea Transport Institute
Estimation of Target Population

Pedestrian accident study in Korea


Fatalities



128 pedestrian-vehicle collisions (data collected by
the end of March, 2005, on-going)
develop ‘probabilistic pedestrian fatality model ’
Apply logistic regression technique
Injuries:


Korean accident statistics
IHRA ratios (adults and child )
The Korea Transport Institute
2-2-
Target Population Estimation-Fatalities
Total Fatalities
Pedestrian Fatalities
Collision speed 40kph
No. of Accident for Vehicle Type
No. of Accident for Crash Speed Group
No of Fatalities per Crash Speed Group
HIC 1000
Potential Decrease in Fatalities
for Given HIC Standard
Decrease in Fatalities for HIC Standard
The Korea Transport Institute
175 persons
3-3-
Pedestrian Fatality Reduction
Fatality reduction by regulation
Total number of pedestrian fatalities
Ratio of head injuries
Ratio of vehicle types
Ratio of collision speed less than a given CS threshold
Pedestrian fatality probability with a given CS
Pedestrian survival probability with a given HIC
The Korea Transport Institute
4-4-
Modeling of Pedestrian Fatality

Logistic Regression
The Korea Transport Institute
5-5-
Example: 40kph, HIC 1000
The Korea Transport Institute
6-6-
Fatality Reduction
Fatality
Reduction
(persons)
HIC
The Korea Transport Institute
Collision Speed
7-7-
Decrease in Serious Injuries - Children
Total Injuries
348,184
Total Pedestrian
Injuries
60,354
Children
Pedestrian Injuries
12,071
Head Injuries
Korean
statistics
4,949
Apply
IHRA ratios
Decrease in
Serious Injuries
The Korea Transport Institute
3,259
8-8-
Decrease in Serious Injuries - Adults
Total Injuries
348,184
Total Pedestrian
Injuries
60,354
Adults
Pedestrian Injuries
48,282
Adults
Head Injuries
14,002
Decrease in
Serious Injuries
13,036
The Korea Transport Institute
Korean
statistics
Apply
IHRA ratios
9-9-
$1=1,050won
Benefit Estimation
175
72,109
12,619
Decrease
in Fatalities
Social Cost
Per Fatalities
(thousand won)
Social Benefit
Of Fatalities
Decrease
(million won)
358,377
The Korea Transport Institute
16,295
20,962
341,576
Decrease
in Serious Injured
Social Cost Saving
Per Serious Injured
(thousand won)
Social Benefit
Of Serious Injured
Decrease
(million won)
Annual Total Benefit
(million won)
10
-10-
Benefit Cost Ratio
Additional Repair Cost
Per Accident when Equipped with
Pedestrian Protection System
B/C Ratio
\500,000
(Total 177,637,000,000)
1.93
\700,000
(Total 248,691,800,000)
1.37
\900,000
(Total \319,746,600,000)
1.07
The Korea Transport Institute
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Closing Remarks

More extensive study with accident data is still
on-going

Attempts to develop a new way of estimating
target population with statistical modeling
approaches

More statistically significant results are expected
The Korea Transport Institute
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