Transcript OECD World Forum onon Key Indicators OECD World Forum Key Indicators Statistics, Statistics,Knowledge Knowledgeand andPolicy Policy Palermo, 10-13 NovemberPalermo, 10-13 November OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004

OECD
World
Forum
onon
Key
Indicators
OECD
World
Forum
Key
Indicators
Statistics,
Statistics,Knowledge
Knowledgeand
andPolicy
Policy
Palermo,
10-13
November
2004
Palermo,
10-13
November
2004
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
1
OECD’S ROLE IN GLOBAL
GOVERNANCE:
THE CONTRIBUTION OF
STRUCTURAL INDICATORS AND
BENCHMARKING
JEAN-PHILIPPE COTIS
OECD Chief Economist
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
2
A typology of world governances
• Direct governance
Applies to international entities regulating global
phenomenon, with instruments global in scope
Examples include the Kyoto Protocol and the WTO
• Indirect governance
Seeks to reduce local inefficiencies which are global in
origin through effective domestic policies
Examples are many: population ageing, financial
pressures in health systems, adapting education
systems to scientific and technical progress
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Institutions for indirect governance
• Each country has its own social and cultural
characteristics which shape policy choices and must be
respected
• A diversity of policy choices is also a source of progress
Potential for experimentation by proxy, by observing
others
But this is costly as it requires considerable time and
expertise
Economies of scale are possible through the
establishment of international institutions specialising
in comparative analysis
However the country loses direct involvement in the
analytical process and may subsequently feel
alienated from the findings
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
4
OECD: an institution of indirect governance
• A hybrid organisation where
Every country can be involved in selecting the issues
The results can be discussed with professional
economists
A forum is provided for policy makers to debate with
their foreign counterparts what practical conclusions
should be drawn
Peer review serves as a catalyst for advancing policy
reform
• But countries are naturally cautious to extend indirect
governance
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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The contribution of benchmarking
• International comparisons must be able to distinguish
between ‘legitimate’ societal choices and public policy
failings
• The OECD produces benchmarks, through rigorous
methods that cover a wide range of structural areas.
These are used:
To identify ‘apparent’ performance strengths and
weaknesses
As inputs to analytical studies which measure the
effectiveness of various policies
The results are scrutinised, criticised and debated by
experts from national administrations and academia
in an objective manner
• Explaining divergences in growth performance: an
example of benchmarking analysis
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Real per capita GDP has dropped relative to
the United States
Trend indices, based on 2000 PPPs and 2000 prices
1
Index US GDP per capita
= 100
85
Japan
Euro-3 (2)
United Kingdom
80
75
70
65
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
1. The trend is calculated using a Hodrick-Prescott filter (smoothing parameter set to 100) over a period
which includes projections through 2010.
2. Euro-3 refers to Germany, France and Italy.
Source: OECD Annual National Accounts.
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Differences in labour utilisation mostly explain
the gap in GDP per capita
Percentage point differences in PPP-based GDP per capita with respect to the United States, 2002
Percentage gap
with respect to
US GDP per capita
=
Effect of labour utilisation 1
Effect of labour productivity 2
+
Lowest OECD (3)
Canada
France
United Kingdom
Japan
Italy
Germany
European Union
Highest OECD (3)
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20 -80
Per cent
-60
-40
-20
0
20
Per cent
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
Per cent
1. Labour resource utilisation is measured as total number of hours worked divided by population.
2. Labour productivity is measured as GDP (in 2000 PPPs) per hour worked.
3. Highest OECD refers to Turkey, lowest to Ireland, ranked by total percentage gap with respect to US GDP per capita.
Source : OECD.
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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The interpretation of growth decompositions
requires care
2002 figures
Productivity per hour worked 1
50
France
45
United States
Belgium
Italy
Ireland
Netherlands
Germany
Denmark
40
Austria
Sweden
35
Switzerland
Canada
Finland
Australia
United Kingdom
30
Japan
25
55
60
65
70
75
80
Employment rate 2
1. Real GDP in 2000 prices and PPPs per hour worked.
2. Total employment as a percentage of the population aged 15-64.
Source: OECD.
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Labour utilisation and productivity gaps
relative to the U.S
Percentage gap with respect to the United States level, 2002, 2000 PPP
Labour utilisation gap 1
15
correlation coefficient = -0.9
10
Japan
Australia
Canada
5
Switzerland
United Kingdom
0
Austria
Finland
-5
Sweden
Ireland
Denmark
-10
European Union
-15
Norway
Netherlands
-20
Germany
Belgium
Italy
-25
France
-30
-35
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Labour productivity gap 2
1. Labour resource utilisation is measured as total number of hours worked divided by population.
2. Labour productivity is measured as GDP per hour worked.
Source : OECD.
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Employment protection legislation and barriers to
entrepreneurship in selected OECD countries
Employment protection legislation
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
United
States
Canada
New
Zealand
Denmark
Finland
Austria
Japan
Norway
Spain
Indicators of barriers to entrepreneurship
6
Barriers to competition
5
Regulatory and administrative opacity
4
Administrative burdens on startups
3
2
1
It
al
y
e
an
c
Fr
um
gi
Be
l
Ja
pa
n
y
an
d
er
m
G
nl
an
en
ed
Sw
Fi
n
Sp
ai
ia
ds
us
tr
A
an
ay
or
w
et
he
rl
N
N
ar
k
es
en
m
D
ni
te
d
al
a
U
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ew
St
at
nd
nd
la
Ir
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al
ia
us
tr
A
an
ad
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ni
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in
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om
0
1. The scale of indicators is 0-6, from least to most restrictive.
Source: Nicoletti, et al (1999), "Summary indicators of product market regulation with an extension to employment protection legislation," OECD Economic Working Papers no. 226.
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Disincentives in old age pension systems
discourage older persons from working
Implicit tax rates on continued work over next 5 years in current old age pension systems1
Per cent
At age 60
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
d
d
d
ia
al
m
es
da
ny
lan elan ustr Stat gdo rtug elan ana ma
a
Ir
A ed
Ic
C Ger
in
Ze
Po
K
t
i
w
d
e
n
N
U nite
U
ly
ay
lia CD and ain den pan rea ium nce urg nds
nd
o
l
o
Ita orw erla stra
a
a
E
Ja
Sp we
lg
K
in
O
Fr mb herl
u
F
S
N
ti z
Be
e
A
t
x
e
Sw
N
Lu
1. Single worker with average earnings.
Source:
100 Duval, R (2003), The retirement effects of old-age pension systems and other social transfer programmes in OECD countries ,
0
OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 370.
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Disincentives to older workers are also high in
social transfer programmes
Implicit tax rates on continued work over next 5 years in current social transfer programmes1
At age 55
Per cent
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
ew
N
Z
la
ea
nd
ea
ly
Ita
or
K
U
te
ni
d
a
St
tes
ela
Ic
nd
l
s
a
a
e
y
y
g
n
d
n
d
d
n
ia
D
ga and our
um pai
tri
pa nad ede rwa tral rlan dom EC elan man ranc lan
i
s
u
a
t
g
l
u
n
J
g
S
b
l
r
r
O
F
Ir
A
er
Ca Sw No Aus itze
in
Fi
Po ethe xem
Be
G
K
w
d
S
N
Lu
te
ni
U
1. Single worker with average earnings.
Source: Duval, R (2003), The retirement effects of old-age pension systems and other social transfer programmes in OECD countries ,
OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 370.
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Work disincentives bear on the older-worker
employment rate
Employment of men and women in the age group 55-64 as a percentage of the population in the same age group, 2002
% of population aged 55-64
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Ic
el
an
N d
or
w
Sw ay
Sw ed
it en
N zerl
ew an
Ze d
al
an
d
U
ni Jap
an
te
d
St
at
es
K
or
e
U
ni Den a
te
m
d
K ark
in
gd
o
M m
ex
i
Po c o
rtu
g
Ca al
n
A ada
us
tra
li
Ire a
la
n
Fi d
n
N
la
Cz ethe nd
ec rla
h
n
Re ds
pu
bl
ic
Sp
ai
n
Fr
an
c
G e
re
G ece
er
m
an
Tu y
rk
ey
Ita
ly
P
Lu ol
xe and
m
bo
u
Be rg
lg
iu
Sl
m
H
ov un
ak
ga
Re ry
pu
bl
ic
0
Source: OECD.
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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Removing implicit taxes on older workers would
raise participation
Simulated level of labour force participation of older workers in 2025 under different pension reform scenarios
% points
90
85
Projection assuming a total suppression of current policy distortions
80
Baseline projection taking into account the potential impact of recent reforms
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
ni
U
Sp
ai
n
Po
rtu
U
ga
ni
l
te
d
St
at
N
es
ew
Ze
al
an
d
Sw
e
Sw den
itz
er
la
nd
Ire
la
nd
Ja
pa
n
N
or
w
ay
Ic
el
an
d
er
Ca
na
da
K
in
gd
om
te
d
m
an
y
ly
Ita
G
or
ea
et
he
rla
nd
s
Fi
nl
an
d
K
N
iu
Lu
m
xe
m
bo
ur
g
Fr
an
ce
A
us
tra
li a
Be
lg
A
us
tri
a
30
Source: OECD.
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
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