Transcript Comments on: Julio Guzman, IDB: “Trade and Poverty in Latin America: What Do We Know?” Marcelo Lafleur, UN ECLAC: “First-Order Effects of Liberalization on.

Comments on:
Julio Guzman, IDB: “Trade and Poverty in Latin
America: What Do We Know?”
Marcelo Lafleur, UN ECLAC: “First-Order Effects
of Liberalization on Real Wages: Chile”
Daniel Lederman, World Bank: “Who Suffers the
Burden of Adjustment? Returns to Schooling
and Business Cycles in Latin America”
Oscar Landerretche
Universidad de Chile
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
Asks …
¿Why is support for trade liberalization falling?
and answers, cos …
The effects of trade liberalization (really of TLCs) has been heterogeneous
in sectors and regions…
… maybe related to heterogeneous and high transport costs…
… falta hardware.
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
Sez …
Moreover, it seems pretty clear that it has been
welfare improving for households in Chile…
… especially the poorest …
… so ¿what's the problem?
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
Bah Sez Lederman …
…what you guys don’t get is that its about risk…
… not (only) level…
… RTS has become more volatile …
… cos it changes in the cycle…
…and the cylce is mainly imported from abroad
in open and specialized economies.
… education has become more risk, which is a
big deal.
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
Bah Sez Lederman …
…what you guys don’t get is that its about risk…
… not (only) level…
… RTS has become more volatile …
… cos it changes in the cycle…
…and the cylce is mainly imported from abroad
in open and specialized economies.
… education has become more risk, which is a
big deal.
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
Bah Sez Lederman …
…what you guys don’t get is that its about risk…
… not (only) level…
… RTS has become more volatile …
… cos it changes in the cycle…
…and the cylce is mainly imported from abroad
in open and specialized economies.
… education has become more risk, which is a
big deal.
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
Bah Sez Lederman …
…what you guys don’t get is that its about risk…
… not (only) level…
… RTS has become more volatile …
… cos it changes in the cycle…
…and the cylce is mainly imported from abroad
in open and specialized economies.
… education has become more risk, which is a
big deal.
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
Asks …
¿Why is support for trade liberalization falling?
and answers, cos …
The effects of trade liberalization (really of TLCs) has been heterogeneous
in sectors and regions…
… maybe related to heterogeneous and high transport costs…
… falta hardware.
1
I’m BE
sympathetic
to the preoccupation
that
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO
AN ARGUMENT
HERE
inspires the question…
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
..but I’m not sure it is supported by the
data.
Asks …
¿Why is support for trade liberalization falling?
and answers, cos …
The effects of trade liberalization (really of TLCs) has been heterogeneous
in sectors and regions…
… maybe related to heterogeneous and high transport costs…
… falta hardware.
1
I’m BE
sympathetic
to the preoccupation
that
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO
AN ARGUMENT
HERE
inspires the question…
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
..but I’m not sure it is supported by the
data.
Asks …
¿Why is support for trade liberalization falling?
and answers, cos …
The effects of trade liberalization (really of TLCs) has been heterogeneous
in sectors and regions…
… maybe related to heterogeneous and high transport costs…
… falta hardware.
1
I’m BE
sympathetic
to the preoccupation
that
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO
AN ARGUMENT
HERE
inspires the question…
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
..but I’m not sure it is supported by the
data.
Asks …
¿Why is support for trade liberalization falling?
and answers, cos …
The effects of trade liberalization (really of TLCs) has been heterogeneous
in sectors and regions…
… maybe related to heterogeneous and high transport costs…
… falta hardware.
Boy is this soft!
1
I’m BE
sympathetic
to the preoccupation
that
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO
AN ARGUMENT
HERE
inspires the question…
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
..but I’m not sure it is supported by the
data.
Asks …
… so if we are actually worried about this
¿Why is support for trade liberalization
maybe wefalling?
should get
Boybetter
is this data.
soft!
and answers, cos …
The effects of trade liberalization (really of TLCs) has been heterogeneous
in sectors and regions…
… maybe related to heterogeneous and high transport costs…
… falta hardware.
1
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
Asks …
¿Why is support for trade liberalization falling?
and answers, cos …
The effects of trade liberalization (really of TLCs) has been heterogeneous
in sectors and regions…
… maybe related to heterogeneous and high transport costs…
… falta hardware.
2
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
Asks …
¿Why is support for trade liberalization falling?
and answers, cos …
Heterogeneous
The effects of trade
results
liberalization
are not a demonstration
(really of TLCs) has been heterogeneous
of in
bad
sectors
net effect.
and regions…
There
… maybe
are supposed
related to to
heterogeneous
be winners and
andlooser
high transport costs…
(regions and sectors)… … but a social
distribution
… falta hardware.
system that helps the loosing
individuals to get back on their feet.
2
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
Asks …
¿Why is support for trade liberalization falling?
and answers, cos …
Heterogeneous
The effects of trade
results
liberalization
are not a demonstration
(really of TLCs) has been heterogeneous
of in
bad
sectors
net effect.
and regions…
There
… maybe
are supposed
related to to
heterogeneous
be winners and
andlooser
high transport costs…
(regions and sectors)… … but a social
distribution
… falta hardware.
system that helps the loosing
individuals to get back on their feet.
Maybe that’s what is failing around here.
2
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
Asks …
¿Why is support for trade liberalization falling?
and answers, cos …
The effects of trade liberalization (really of TLCs) has been heterogeneous
in sectors and regions…
… maybe related to heterogeneous and high transport costs…
… falta hardware.
3
¿Are we seriously thinking that we can keep this going on
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
infrastructure?
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
I’m all for infrastructure, sure, but…
Asks …
… ¿what about inequality, mobility meritocracy, competition,
innovation, new entrepreneurship, all that stuff?…
¿Why is support for trade liberalization falling?
¿Riding the commodity bubble are we not?
and answers, cos …
The effects of trade liberalization (really of TLCs) has been heterogeneous
in sectors and regions…
… maybe related to heterogeneous and high transport costs…
… falta hardware.
3
I liked
theACTUALLY
paper.
THERE
SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
Guzman
Lafleur
One
would be tempted to claim
a
paradox with previous
presentation…
Sez …
Lederman
… but there is no paradox, for the
Moreover,
costs of liberalization are not
being it seems pretty clear that it has been
welfare improving for households in Chile…
estimated …
especially the poorest …
…¿what period? Are they …
talking
about liberalization or bilateral
… so ¿what's the problem?
trade agreements, its different…
… estimations ate for an already
(very) open country, very
specialized, with no local market.
1
But in creative destruction,
I liked
theACTUALLY
paper.
THERE
SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
both parts are important…
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
One
would be tempted to claim
a
… no estimation of
paradox with previous
destruction…
presentation…
Sez …
… which would be reflected,
… but there is no paradox, for the
Moreover,
pretty
clear that
it has been
for
example,
in volatility
of
costs of liberalization are not
being it seems
welfare improving wages…
for households in Chile…
estimated …
especially the poorest
… of income and…
… volatility
…¿what period? Are they …
talking
about liberalization or bilateral
… so ¿what's the …
problem?
probability of
trade agreements, its different…
unemployment …
… estimations ate for an already
… wealth effect on loosers.
(very) open country, very
specialized, with no local market.
1
But in creative destruction,
I liked
theACTUALLY
paper.
THERE
SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
both parts are important…
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
One
would be tempted to claim
a
… no estimation of
paradox with previous
destruction…
presentation…
Sez …
… which would be reflected,
… but there is no paradox, for the
Moreover,
pretty
clear that
it has been
for
example,
in volatility
of
costs of liberalization are not
being it seems
welfare improving wages…
for households in Chile…
estimated …
especially the poorest
… of income and…
… volatility
…¿what period? Are they …
talking
about liberalization or bilateral
… so ¿what's the …
problem?
probability of
trade agreements, its different…
unemployment …
… estimations ate for an already
… wealth effect on loosers.
(very) open country, very
specialized, with no local market.
It can be done…
1
…its hard for this period.
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
Sez …
Moreover, it seems pretty clear that it has been
welfare improving for households in Chile…
… especially the poorest …
… so ¿what's the problem?
2
Also…
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
Guzman
¿What is the
counterfactual?
Lafleur
Lederman
It can't be that prices do not fall…
Sez …
… maybe we are being to benevolent.
Moreover, it seems pretty clear that it has been
welfare
improving
households
in Chile…
This is scary
if some
resultsforare
small.
… especially the poorest …
… so ¿what's the problem?
2
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
Bah Sez Lederman …
…what you guys don’t get is that its about risk…
… not (only) level…
… RTS has become more volatile …
… cos it changes in the cycle…
…and the cylce is mainly imported from abroad
in open and specialized economies.
… education has become more risk, which is a
big deal.
1
I have a really hard time seeing
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
the empirical regularities
claimed byLederman
the paper.
Guzman
Lafleur
Bah Sez Lederman …
…what you guys don’t get is that its about risk…
… not (only) level…
… RTS has become more volatile …
… cos it changes in the cycle…
…and the cylce is mainly imported from abroad
in open and specialized economies.
… education has become more risk, which is a
big deal.
1
I have a really hard time seeing
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
the empirical regularities
claimed byLederman
the paper.
Guzman
Lafleur
Bah Sez Lederman …
I lean your way but having
Brazil, Chile and Venezuela as
exceptions is not a small thing.
…what you guys don’t get is that its about risk…
… not (only) level…
… RTS has become more volatile …
… cos it changes in the cycle…
…and the cylce is mainly imported from abroad
in open and specialized economies.
… education has become more risk, which is a
big deal.
1
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
Bah Sez Lederman …
…what you guys don’t get is that its about risk…
… not (only) level…
… RTS has become more volatile …
… cos it changes in the cycle…
…and the cylce is mainly imported from abroad
in open and specialized economies.
… education has become more risk, which is a
big deal.
2
These results are pretty cool…
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
... but maybe to heterogeneous.
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
Bah Sez Lederman …
…what you guys don’t get is that its about risk…
… not (only) level…
… RTS has become more volatile …
… cos it changes in the cycle…
…and the cylce is mainly imported from abroad
in open and specialized economies.
… education has become more risk, which is a
big deal.
2
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
Bah Sez Lederman …
…what you guys don’t get is that its about risk…
… not (only) level…
… RTS has become more volatile …
… cos it changes in the cycle…
…and the cylce is mainly imported from abroad
in open and specialized economies.
… education has become more risk, which is a
big deal.
3
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
Bah Sez Lederman …
Maybe this is not
such a big surprise…
…what you guys don’t get is that its about risk…
… not (only) level…
… RTS has become more volatile …
… cos it changes in the cycle…
…and the cylce is mainly imported from abroad
in open and specialized economies.
… education has become more risk, which is a
big deal.
3
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
Bah Sez Lederman …
Maybe this is not
such a big surprise…
…what you guys don’t get is that its about risk…
…so, ¿why not
… not (only) level…
control for degree of
openness? …
… RTS has become more volatile …
… cos it changes in the cycle…
…and the cylce is mainly imported from abroad
in open and specialized economies.
… education has become more risk, which is a
big deal.
3
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
Bah Sez Lederman …
Maybe this is not
such a big surprise…
…what you guys don’t get is that its about risk…
…so, ¿why not
… not (only) level…
control for degree of
openness? …
… RTS has become more volatile …
…¿and industrial
… cos it changes in the cycle…
structure?
…and the cylce is mainly imported from abroad
in open and specialized economies.
… education has become more risk, which is a
big deal.
3
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
Bah Sez Lederman …
Maybe this is not
such a big surprise…
…what you guys don’t get is that its about risk…
I think this paper opens a lot of questions
…so, ¿why not
and a big agenda…
… not (only) level…
control for degree of
openness? …
… which is…great.
RTS has become more volatile …
…¿and industrial
… cos it changes in the cycle…
structure?
…and the cylce is mainly imported from abroad
in open and specialized economies.
… education has become more risk, which is a
big deal.
3
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
Guzman
Lafleur
Lederman
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
Guzman
So…
Lafleur
Lederman
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
Guzman
Lafleur
So…
…I’m not completely convinced about this
problem …
Lederman
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
Guzman
Lafleur
So…
…I’m not completely convinced about this
problem …
…I’m convinced about his argument
although I recognize the need for more
work on the empirical evidence …
Lederman
THERE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE AN ARGUMENT HERE
Guzman
Lafleur
So…
…I’m not completely convinced about this
problem …
…I’m convinced about his argument
although I recognize the need for more
work on the empirical evidence …
…I sort of think these guys could look at
risk-ish variables…
… but would have to change period.
Lederman
It was fun
Thanks!