Transcript CCSM Biogeochemistry WG Plans • CCSM1-carbon (Fung, Doney, Lindsay, John) – Interactive land (CASA’) and ocean (OCMIP’) C cycles; prognostic CO2 for atmospheric radiation –

CCSM Biogeochemistry WG Plans
• CCSM1-carbon
(Fung, Doney, Lindsay, John)
– Interactive land (CASA’) and ocean (OCMIP’) C cycles; prognostic
CO2 for atmospheric radiation
– Planned submission to IPCC 4th Assessment
• CCSM3-carbon: (2 versions)
– Port CASA’/OCMIP’ to CCSM3 physics –
Murphy, SciDAC Collaboration)
(Fung, Doney, Lindsay, John,
– Land: C-N coupling, disturbance (Thornton et al.)
Ocn: marine ecosystem dynamics (Moore et al.)
– Planned submission to IPCC 4th Assessment
• CCSM3-carbon+
– Dust  marine productivity  C
– Land atmosphere coupling and active chemistry
CCSM1-Carbon
Inez Fung, Scott Doney, Jasmin John, Keith Lindsay
• Modules
• Spin-up
• Results from Control
– Atm
– Land
– Ocean
• Fossil Fuel emission
Modeler’s View of the Global C Cycle
FF
Turnover
Time of C
102-103 yr
Atmosphere
CO2 = 280 ppmv (560 PgC) + …
90±
60±
Ocean Circ.
+ BGC
37400 Pg C
Biophysics Turnover
+ BGC
time of C
1
2000 Pg C 10 yr
COUPLING OF BIOGEOCHEMISTRY W BIOPHYSICS
Energy
H2O
CO2
GPP
R_h
CO2
LAI
• GPP from LSM
• dL/dt = a_L * NPP –
L/(t_bkgd + t_cold-drought )
• All fluxes and pools updated
20 minutes
R_a
NPP
L
R
W
}
}
CASA’
Iron-Carbon Biogeochemistry Model
Physical framework
-NCOM global model (CCSMocean 1.4, x3 grid)
-equilibrium solutions (~5-10kyr)
Ocean Carbon Model
Intercomparison Project
(OCMIP)
-carbonate thermodynamics and
air-sea fluxes
-prognostic biotic model
Enhancements
-replace PO4 restoring w/
prognostic export flux
-incorporate Fe limitation and Fe
cycling
CCSM1-Carbon
• Modules
• Spin-up
• Results from Control
– Atm
– Land
– Ocean
• Fossil Fuel emission
Spin-up Strategy
• Reminder: Carbon inventory adjusts to climate
• Spin-up Goal: find C distribution in eqm with the
climate
• Challenge: fickle models and climate
• Three flavors of CO2:
– Tracers CO2 in atm
= CO2-tracer (x,y,z,t)
• (diagnostic of surface fluxes)
• 3+ inert tracers: net land+ocean; net land; net ocean
– Biogeochemistry CO2
• To drive fluxes into ocean
• Sensed by terrestrial photosynthesis
– Radiative CO2
= CO2-tracer (x,y,sfc, t)
= CO2-tracer (x,y,column, t)
Coupling and Spin-up Strategy
CCSM 1.4 physics (with some changes) at T31/x3
land BGC spin-up
active land/atm
clim. or coupled
model SSTs
O(102)y
ocean BGC spin-up
active ocean
O(103)y
CTracer=prog
CBGC=280
CRad=280
CTracer=prog
CBGC=prog
CRad=280
CTracer=prog
CBGC=prog
CRad=prog
coupled physics coupled physics
land/ocn BGC
land/ocn/atm
adjustment
BGC adjustment
coupled physics
fully coupled
carbon-climate
c4.16
c4.18
100 yr
c4.17
100 yr
~600 yr
(03/25/04)
start from
y=50 of c4.17
280 ppm
Coupled Carbon-Climate Model
• NCAR CCSM1 with interactive terrestrial and
oceanic C cycles, Prognostic CO2(x,y,z,t)
• Control Run: ~600years
– Quantify climate effects on the carbon cycle
– No imposed trends (e.g. CO2 fertilization, N
fertilization, land use modification...)
– Determine natural variability
– Background for CO2 sink detection
• FF Experiment – specify FF emission since
1820
CCSM1-Carbon
• Modules
• Spin-up
• Results from Control
– Atm
– Land
– Ocean
• Fossil Fuel emission
Multi-Century Coupled Carbon/Climate Simulations
+2.0
14.1
13.6
0
•
•
•
•
•
•
Surface Temp.
year
-2.0
Net CO2 Flux (Pg C/yr)
500
Fully prognostic land/ocn BGC and carbon/radiation
Atm-Land: 70 PgC/yr ; Atm-Ocean: 90 PgC/yr 
Net Land+ocean: 01 PgC/yr
“Stable” carbon cycle and climate over 500y
Projection of climate change on natural modes
Detection & attribution

500+ yr of Atm CO2 Variability
286
284
282
Column 5y means
Sfc 5y means
280
• Annual mean varies by ~4ppm over 500+years
• Surface ~1.5 ppm higher than column average
• Column variability ~ sfc variability
Land and Ocean Contributions to Globallyaveraged Column CO2
Due to land only
Due to ocn only
• CO2_land more variable
(~6 ppm) than CO2_ocn
(~2.5 ppm)
• Conservation 
CO2_land and CO2_ocn
have opposite trends…
• Reduction of land flux 
lower atm CO2 
greater oceanic
outgassing
• But not always…
Time-evolving, 3-D
Atmospheric CO2 fields
CCSM1-Carbon
• Modules
• Spin-up
• Results from Control
– Atm
– Land
– Ocean
• Fossil Fuel emission
Annual Net Atm-Land Flux
= Net Ecosystem Production
= Rh (~70 PgC/y ) – NPP (~70 PgC/y )
2 PgC/yr
Natural NEP Variability  “noise” for detecting anthropogenic land sink
Terrestrial Carbon Inventory
Live Biomass ~ 870PgC
7 PgC
Dead Biomass ~ 1080PgC
8 PgC
Variability Mechanism: e.g. Wood
/t (WOOD) =
/t (CWD)
•
•
•
•
awood NPP
=
– WOOD/t_wood
WOOD/t_wood – CWD/t_cwd
NPP responds to instantaneous climate
t_wood fixed ~ 20 yrs
t_cwd ~15y * f(soilT) * g(soil_moisture)
CWD integrates over decadal climate variability
CCSM1-Carbon
• Modules
• Spin-up
• Results from Control
– Atm
– Land
– Ocean
• Fossil Fuel emission
Ocean Carbon Cycle Variability
+0.35 Air-sea CO2 Flux (Pg C/yr)
9.25
8.8
0
Export Flux
year
-0.25
500
-global interannual variability in CO2 flux of +/-0.3 Pg Cyr
-weak Equatorial Pacific variability (biases in base state)
Fung, Doney, Lindsay & John
Long-term Ocean Drift
Global Salinity (PSS)
170
z
146
0
ACC Transport
year
500
year
-Most properties relatively stable over 0-500 years
-Drift in Antarctic Circumpolar Current and salinity vertical
redistribution (w/ corresponding drift in DIC and Alkalinity
concentrations)
Fung, Doney, Lindsay & John
Ocean Variability Mechanisms
10
Air-sea
flux
Particle
export
3
1
.3
.1
Freshwater
mol C/m^2
-Maps of annual rms (y 0-200; C4.18)
-Regions of high variability in North
Atlantic & Pacific, tropics and
Southern Ocean
-Mechanisms differ across regions
Fung, Doney, Lindsay & John
CCSM1-Carbon
• Modules
• Spin-up
• Results from Control
– Atm
– Land
– Ocean
• Fossil Fuel emission
CCSM1-carbon Control and Fossil Fuel Expts
Control (c4.18)
100 yr
400 yr
1) Prescribed CO2 Emissions
CO2/Radiation Coupling
1000 yr
c4.19
2) Prescribed CO2 Emissions
No CO2/Radiation Coupling
3) Prescribed CO2 Concentrations
CO2/Radiation Coupling
Run ensembles
when feasible
Prescribed Fossil Fuel Experiment (C4.19)
~40 Pg C
uptake
320
~80 Pg C
build-up
Ocean
285
1820
Net Atm. CO2
year
1960
-~1/3 of fossil fuel emissions taken
up by ocean
-small temperature rise (+0.25 K)
-land release only somewhat larger
than variability in control (~6 Pg C)
~8 Pg C
release
Land
CCSM Carbon-Climate GCM’s
for IPCC 2007
CCSM 1.4
CASA’
OCMIP’+Fe
NCAR Origin
(LANL)
Doney, Fung, John,
Lindsay
CCSM 3.?
CASA’
OCMIP’+Fe
IBM SP’s
NCAR (ORNL,
NERSC)
Fung, Doney, John,
Lindsay, Wehner,
others?
CCSM 3.?
CLM3-CN
Ocean Eco
IBM SP’s
Thornton,
Mahowald, Lindsay,
Moore, Fung, Doney
Land, Atmosphere & and Ocean Inventories
+2.0
283.5
278.5
0
Land
year
500
-2.0
Net CO2 Flux (PgOcean
C/yr)
Fung, Doney, Lindsay & John
-Approximately stable atmosphere CO2 concentration
-Substantial variability on interannual, decadal and centennial
time-scales
-Redistributions from land to atmosphere as large as ~10 Pg C
Marine BGC Module
OCMIP Biotic Model +
•prognostic export
production
•iron limitation and
cycling
Globally Averaged Net Surface Fluxes
(land +/- 70 PgC/yr; ocean +/- 90 Pg/yr)
5-y running
mean;
s <1 PgC/y
• Stable !!! Over 500+ years of integration
• Large interannual and interdecadal variability (~1%)
in land+ocean surface fluxes
• “Natural” flux variability ~ contemporary carbon sink
Land BGC Module
CO2
H2O
GPP
R_a
Energy
NPP
R_h
allocation
LAI
Leaf
Sfc
Metab
Sfc
Struc
Sfc
Microb
Root
Soil
Metab
Soil
Microb
Wood
Soil
Metab
Coarse
Wdy Debris
Slow
Passive
}
}
Based on coupling of CASA BGC & Land Biogeophysics
–dynamic allocation
–prognostic LAI and phenolgy
Multi-Century Coupled Carbon/Climate Simulations
+1.5
14.1
13.6
0
Surface Temp.
year
200
-1.5
Net CO2 Flux (Pg C/yr)
Fung, Doney, Lindsay & John
-Fully prognostic land/ocn BGC and carbon/radiation
-“Stable” carbon cycle and climate over 200y
-Projection of climate change on natural modes
-Detection & attribution
Variability Mechanisms &
Modes
Particle
export
30
10
Air-sea
flux
3
1
Fung, Doney, Lindsay & John
Freshwater
Carbon/Climate Control Simulation
(~100y)
+1.0
14.1
-1.0
Net CO2 Flux
13.7
Surface Temp.
“Stable” carbon cycle and
climate over O(100y) with fully
prognostic land/ocn BGC and
carbon/radiation coupling
284
283
282
Surface Atm. CO2