Transcript Can the Nigerian Project be Salvaged? Growth, Democracy and Security Richard Joseph Fannie Lou Hamer, 1917-1977

Can the Nigerian Project be
Salvaged?
Growth, Democracy and Security
Richard Joseph
Fannie Lou Hamer, 1917-1977
Former Presidents Carter & Clinton
Senator Barack Obama, June 2006
Chinua Achebe, December 2010
Governance, Enterprise and Shared
Prosperity
“With better governance, I have no doubt that Africa holds
the promise of a broader base of prosperity. Witness the
extraordinary Witness the extraordinary success of Africans in
my country, America. They're doing very well. So they've got
the talent, they've got the entrepreneurial spirit. The question
is, how do we make sure that they're succeeding here in their
home countries?”
President Barack Obama, Accra, Ghana, July 2009
“How do we begin to solve these problems in Nigeria where
the structures are present but there is no accountability?”
Professor Chinua Achebe, January 2011
Developmental Governance
“Africa’s future will not differ from the grim present if a
Weberian culture of effective and legitimate bureaucratic
organization does not take root in African soil. At the center of
smart partnerships for African development will be one
overriding commitment: building sustainable institutions that
actually work as intended. How this very fundamental but
revolutionary step can be made is a question for which
answers have not been found.”
R. Joseph, Smart Partnerships for African Development,
US Institute for Peace, May 2002
Consortium for Development Partnerships, 2004
Research Alliance to Combat HIV/AIDS, 2006
Scholars Forum, BusinessDay, June 2009
“As the Obama era unfolds, there are four contributions I hope to
make to help fulfill the agenda for progress and transformation”
1.Write
up the narratives of African, and especially Nigerian,
struggles for peace, democracy and social justice that I have
personally experienced.
2.Provide
policy advice regarding key development challenges in
Africa. In the case of Nigeria, at the top of the list is the failure to
establish a fully independent, non-partisan, and capable
electoral system.
Scholars Forum, BusinessDay, June 2009
3. Advance analyses of Africa’s mighty problem which
is the failure in many countries to create a
universalistic, legitimate, and capable state.
4. Help design a Nigerian Project on sustainable
growth and development that would draw on the
extensive technological resources, notably in the United
States, to address key economic and infrastructure
challenges.
Nigeria 2025
“By 2025, if the necessary transformations have occurred,
Nigerians should bask in the economic growth that has taken
place and the developmental governance for which they have
become known. This vision can become a reality.”
R. Joseph, June 2009
“I am sure you are one of the optimists who think the current
security crisis presents President Goodluck Jonathan an
opportunity for fundamental reform of Nigerian governance
which he may just grasp.”
Dr. Abimbola Agboluaje, February 8, 2012
What is Nigeria?
“Nigeria had been formed by the gradual incorporation of different
contiguous areas and peoples into the British Empire from 1861
onwards, taking its final shape by 1914, when the celebrated
‘amalgamation’ by Lord Lugard established the administrative
pattern of a coastal Colony (Lagos and its hinterland) and a
Protectorate over the rest of the country…”
K.W.J. Post and Michael Vickers, Structure and Conflict in Nigeria (1973)
“Before colonialism there were no states called India or Nigeria.”
Isaac Chotiner, The New York Times, March 4, 2012
The Making of Nigeria
“Any country is, in a sense, an artificial creation. In the case of
Nigeria, however, union was so sudden, and included such widely
differing groups of peoples that not only the British, who created
it, but the inhabitants themselves, have often doubted whether it
could survive as a political entity. On 1st October, 1960, despite
many difficulties, Nigeria became a sovereign federation and has
survived intact despite a protracted civil war.”
Michael Crowder, The Story of Nigeria (1962/1978)
“Britain’s decision to join the Islamic north of the country with
non-Muslim settlements in the south fed tribal conflicts and
insurgencies that has lasted to this day.”
Isaac Chotiner, March 4, 2012
Thomas Lionel Hodgkin, 1910-1982
“He did more than anyone else to establish the serious study of African
history” in Britain. Obituary, The Times (London)
Thomas Hodgkin at Crab Mill, Oxfordshire
The Making of Nigeria
“Perhaps the first event in Nigerian history to which a reasonably
accurate date can be assigned is the conversion to Islam of Umme
(or Humai), Mai of Kanem, shortly before the end of the 11th
century…In the 1240s, its [Kanem’s] government built a madrasa
for Kanem pilgrims and students residing in Cairo…
[Ibn Khaldun,14th century]…his account of the embassy which
Kanem sent to al-Mustansir, the founder of the Hafsid dynasty in
Tunisia, and the public excitement caused by the gift of a giraffe.”
Thomas Hodgkin, Nigerian Perspectives: An Historical Anthology (1960/1975)
The Future Nigeria
Pre-Nigeria States
Pre-Nigeria Sokoto Caliphate
Sokoto Caliphate
Shaikh Uthman dan Fodio, Jihād, 1804-1809
“Its objectives were always presented in Islamic, not in ethnic terms, and
‘tribalism’ was explicitly and frequently condemned…”
“It had a genuine popular basis…It also represented a protest of the Hausa
commoners (talakawa) against the old Hausa dynasties – against the
oppression of the ruling class as much as against its ‘paganism’ or lack of
orthodoxy.”
“The kind of state which the leaders of the revolution were pledged to
establish was a state in which social justice, administered in the light of the
Shari’a by God-fearing rulers, took the place of the arbitrary decisions of
irresponsible despots.”
T. Hodgkin
Sokoto Caliphate
“The most obvious consequence of the jihād was the imposition of
the authority of a single government over a large region formerly
occupied by a number of competing sovereign states.”
“European commentators have tended to underestimate the extent
to which the Caliphate survived through the nineteenth century as
an effective political system.”
“The two major empire-building movements [in Nigeria] which
marked the beginning and end of the [19th] century – Fulani and
British – had more in common than is sometimes realized.”
T. Hodgkin
Nigeria, 1965
Today: 36 States
Geopolitical Zones
University of Ibadan, 1976-79
Kamerun to Nigerian Project
“Ruben Um Nyobé and ‘The Kamerun’ Rebellion,” African Affairs, Vol. 73,
No. 293 (1974)
“Settlers, Strikers and Sans-Travail: The Douala Riots of September 1945,”
Journal of African History, Vol. XV, No. 4 (1974)
“The Royal Pretender: Prince Douala Manga Bell in Paris, 1919-1922,”
Cahiers d’Etudes Africaines, Vol. XIV, No. 54 (1974)
“The German Question in French Cameroun, 1919-1939,” Comparative
Studies in Society and History, Vol. 17, No. 1 (1975)
“National Politics in Postwar Cameroun: The Difficult Birth of the UPC,”
Journal of African Studies, Vol. 2, No. 2 (1975)
“The Gaullist Legacy: Patterns of French Neo-Colonialism,” Review of
African Political Economy, No. 6 (1976)
Kamerun to Nigerian Project
Radical Nationalism in Cameroun: Social Origins of the UPC Rebellion
(Oxford: The Clarendon Press, 1977)—also published as Le Mouvement
Nationaliste au Cameroun (Paris: Karthala, 1986)
“National Objectives and Public Accountability,” Issues in the Nigerian
Draft Constitution, ed. S. Kumo and A. Aliyu (Zaria, Nigeria: Institute of
Administration, 1977)
“Affluence and Underdevelopment: The Nigerian Experience,” Journal
of Modern African Studies, Vol. 16, No. 2 (1978)
Gaullist Africa: Cameroon under Ahmadu Ahidjo (Enugu, Nigeria: Fourth
Dimension Publishers, 1978), editor
“Political Parties and Ideology in Nigeria,” Review of African Political
Economy, No. 13 (1979)
Conference on Nigerian Draft Constitution
March 1977
Conference on Nigerian Draft Constitution
March 1977
Knowledge Generation & Social Progress
“The military regarded the university as an enemy-formation …
and tried hard to empty the Nigerian university of its intellectual
contents …[resulting in] the scattering of Nigeria’s best brains in
foreign universities and other institutions.”
“...our commitment to the revitalization of the educational system
in Ekiti State. We recognize the importance of the university as a
fountain of knowledge-generation and social progress.”
Governor Kayode Fayemi
Ekiti Governor Dr. Kayode Fayemi, Professors M.
Aluko and R. Joseph
Dysfunction & Sub-Optimalism
“They have stolen much of our collective wealth and left
us with little to fight our massive poverty. They have not
created a united country…They have failed to give us
appropriate infrastructure…They have not given us the
level of peace and stability needed to attract sufficient
foreign investment…They have not managed to diversify
our economy despite the billions they have earned from
oil. They have maintained a huge developmental gap
between policy and implementation.”
Prof. Ebere Onwudiwe, 2009
Growth & Development Debate
British aid agency Oxfam has flayed the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) for their complacent
approach to the problems caused in sub-Saharan Africa because of
its huge external debt, which is in excess of $183 billion.
"After a decade of structural adjustment programs implemented
under the tutelage of the World Bank and the IMF, Africa remains
trapped in a downward spiral of economic and social decline
and poverty is increasing. [There is] "overwhelming evidence that
existing adjustment policies have failed: they have neither created
a platform for sustainable recovery nor addressed the central
problem of poverty alleviation.”
November, 1993
Growth & Development Debate
“IMF managing director Michel Camdessus reacted angrily to the
Oxfam report and said he, too, feared "the sinking of a
continent" and was disturbed that per capita growth rates in
Africa had been falling for the last 20 years… The level of debt
"has remained an overwhelming obstacle" to recovery and calls for
debt forgiveness by the G-7.”
“Camdessus added African countries needed to make important
changes, including putting the right macroeconomic policies in
place and reforming and strengthening governmental
institutions.”
November 1993
Growth & Development Debate
“Let me tell you why I believe that success is possible. The
situation in Africa has improved. .. I have no intention of
overlooking the poverty and all the deficiencies that we still face…
This does not apply to the countries ravaged by war, fratricidal
conflicts, and serious political upheavals… It is clear that an
economic recovery began in 1994. Real GDP growth in subSaharan Africa is expected to average roughly 5 percent in 1996-97,
compared with only 1 percent in 1991-93. And at last, real per
capita GDP growth will be clearly positive for the first time in
many years.”
Michel Camdessus, July 1996
Growth & Development Debate
“The "Afro-pessimists" will tell you that this recovery will be shortlived—that it is readily explained by an uptick in the terms of trade
due to shifts in commodity prices.
How wrong they are. According to the most rigorous studies,
Africa's stronger growth is explained not by higher commodity
prices, but by the fact that an increasing number of countries
have undertaken courageous adjustment and structural reform
programs.
This is the key to Africa's progress.”
Michel Camdessus, July 1996
IMF Reform Agenda
What did these [reform] programs involve?
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Reducing public sector deficits [so they] could be financed
without fanning inflation or building up excessive debt
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maintaining monetary stability while maintaining realistic
exchange rates and liberalizing prices
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mobilizing domestic savings and liberalizing trade
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freeing the productive energies of the economies through
comprehensive structural reform.
Michel Camdessus, July 1996
Emerging Africa
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more democratic and accountable governments
more sensible economic policies
end of the debt crisis and better relations with external
agencies
new technologies and opportunities for business and
political accountability
a new generation of policymakers, activists and
business leaders
Steven Radelet , 2010
The Radelet Narrative: Africa, 1995 - 2010
Emerging
Africa
Threshold
Countries
Non-Emerging
Oil–Exporters
Countries
Africa Rising: The Hopeful Continent
“Over the past decade six of the world’s ten fastestgrowing countries were African. In eight of the past ten
years, Africa has grown faster than East Asia,
including Japan. Even allowing for the knock-on effect of
the northern hemisphere’s slowdown, the IMF expects
Africa to grow by 6% this year and nearly 6% in 2012,
about the same as Asia.”
The Economist, December 3, 2011
Vijay Rajahan, Africa Rising, 2010
Africa Rising: The Hopeful Continent
“Africa is on the move: from basket case to a potential bread
basket, from dodgy debtor to investor opportunity.”
“A market of nearly 1 billion people, about a third of them under
21, is making up for five wasted post-independence decades.”
“There is a wave of creativity: novelists and artists, film-makers
and musicians, designers and stylists, all are thriving.”
Michael Holman, Financial Times, February 28, 2012
Conflicting Narratives
Sub-Saharan Africa “has an unprecedented opportunity
for transformation and sustained growth” and “could
be on the brink of an economic takeoff, much like
China was 30 years ago, and India 20 years ago.”
World Bank, Africa Regional Strategy, March 2011
“Progress, stagnation and discouraging regression
continue to co-exist on the continent.”
Africa Progress Panel, 2011 (Kofi Annan, Chairman)
Conflicting Narratives
“Radical and growing economic inequality animated
much of what was at stake in the various Arab uprisings, and
it will play a major role in shaping African politics…The
disaffected [Tunisian] street vendor who set himself alight
was not so different from many disaffected young men of
Nairobi and Kampala’s slums. They are Africa’s
overwhelming majority: poor, marginalized and angry
about corruption and soaring food and fuel prices. It is
those young men who endure the daily humiliations of
poverty, struggling to find jobs as elites crow about
‘growth’ and an African renaissance.”
John Githongo, Anti-Corruption Crusader, Kenya, July 2011
Nigerian Narratives
“We are going down an escalator that is going up.”
Dele Olojede, Publisher, NEXT newspaper, Lagos
“We have major systemic issues arising from decades of
unchecked corruption. Those systems, the beneficiaries, the
sectional interests and [others] that depend on these benefits
wouldn't just fold their arms while we threaten their interests. We
have begun a very painful process of correcting the system. It is
no easy feat…What we are implementing are not theoretical
solutions but solutions aimed at correcting the very ills plaguing
our country.”
Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Nigerian Minister of Finance, January 2012
Emerging Africa and Nigeria
For the first time, the proportion of people living in
extreme poverty – less than $1.25 a day – fell in every
developing region from 2005-2010. In sub-Saharan
Africa [it dropped]…below 50% for the first time.
The World Bank, February 29, 2012
In Nigeria, poverty continues to increase. 61% of
Nigerians, 97.6 million, live on less than $1 a day.
Poverty is 10% higher in 2010 than in 2004.
Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics, February 13, 2012
Symposium on Growth, Democracy, Security
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Post-liberation States and Non-Democratic Development: Angola, Ethiopia,
Uganda, Rwanda
Pivotal Nations : Angola, Ethiopia, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Nigeria, South
Africa
Re-territorializing: trans-Sahara, trans-Sahel, regional configurations
Expanding oil and gas reserves: Ghana, Uganda, Ivory Coast, Mozambique
South-South Relations: China, India, Brazil
State, War and Predation: Congo, Sudan, Somalia, Zimbabwe
Turmoil and Transition: Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia, (Algeria?)
At-Risk Democracies: Botswana, Ghana, Mali, Senegal
Building Democracy: Guinea, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Niger, Zambia
African ~ Global GDS: Islamism, Counter-Insurgency, Food, Water,
Climate, Energy
AfricaPlus
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Claiming Democracy
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Building Social Wealth
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GATE (Governmental Accountability, Transparency and
Efficiency)
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INVENT (Invest in Ethical Entrepreneurship)
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State-Nation Configuration
Claiming Democracy
“[In much of] the developing and postcommunist worlds, democracy has been a
superficial phenomenon, blighted by multiple forms of bad governance: abusive
police and security forces, domineering local oligarchies, incompetent and indifferent
state bureaucracies, corrupt and inaccessible judiciaries, and venal ruling elites
who are contemptuous of the rule of law and accountable to no one but themselves.
[In these regimes] the purpose of government is not to generate public goods, such
as roads, schools, clinics, and sewer systems. Instead it is to produce private goods
for officials, their families, and their cronies.”
Larry Diamond, “The Democratic Rollback: The Resurgence of the Predatory State”, Foreign
Affairs (2008)
Claiming Democracy
“The aspirations of the African people, as shown in survey after survey,
including in Nigeria, have not been matched by what politicians actually do
once they are elected. Democracy is therefore compressed into a voting act
performed every four or five years. In view of the declining quality of elections,
even these acts can be drained of meaning.
Nigeria needs more efficient, transparent, responsive and accountable
governments…Much remains to be done to get federal, state and local
governments performing in ways commensurate with the nation's abundant
human and material resources.”
R. Joseph, Nigeria’s 50th Anniversary, Abuja and Lagos, October 2010
Claiming Democracy
“This is essentially a people’s contest…It is a struggle
for maintaining in the world, that form, and substance of
government whose leading object is to elevate the
condition of men – to lift artificial weights from all
shoulders – to clear the paths for all – to afford all an
even start and a fair chance, in the race of life.”
Abraham Lincoln
Presidential Message to Congress, 1861
Building Social Wealth
Water, Energy, Agriculture, Law-based
Governance, Transportation, Health
Francis Fukuyama:
substantive as well as procedural democracy;
elections as well as jobs, roads, electricity,
water, food, health care
Knowledge Production & Social Progress
“More than ever before, at this historic juncture in Nigeria, we
need our best minds to steer the ship of state.”
Governor Babatunde Fashola
Lagos State
The Fashola Reform Agenda
1. aggressive road construction
6/7. qualitative and affordable
education and health care
2. integrated mass transit
8. food security
3. improved power and water
9. employment generation
supply
4. environmental renewal
5. affordable shelter
10. revenue enhancement
Nigeria 2025:
Growth, Democracy and Security
I. Civic and Communal Associations,
Corporations, NGOs, Faith Groups
II. Local Governments, States, Sub-National
Zones, Confederation
III. Qualitative Education
IV. Strategic Partnerships and Out-Sourcing
V. Engaging the Diaspora
VI. Ethical Leadership & Followership
State-Nation Configuration
“We have failed as a people to confront the fundamental
structural challenges of our national togetherness and
collective political life.”
“Unless we…reorder the fundamentally flawed logic on
which Nigeria has operated until now, we will not be able
put the national state in the service of the diverse
people who constitute it.”
Governor Kayode Fayemi, September 2011
Conglomerate Voting Pattern
Presidential Election
April 2011
Nigeria 2025
Collaborative Learning and Action
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CD/BSW/GATE/INVENT/SNC
Nigeria after Military Rule: 1999-2025
Midway: 26-year Marathon
“A Conglomerate Society”, Ken Post (1973)
“A Cultural Federation”, Turi Muhammadu (1979)
Amalgamation 1914-2014: E Pluribus Unum
April 2015 Elections, and Beyond
Nigerian Consensus/Nigerian Compact/Nigerian Model
South-South Learning: Brazil-India-Nigeria-Indonesia
What tried? What worked? What failed? What next?
AfricaPlus
Expand Knowledge, Design Solutions
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Library and Documentation
Collaborative Projects
Symposium on Growth, Democracy and Security
Distance Learning & Policy Consultation
Teleseminars
Teaching and Research Partnerships
Publications
Northern Nigeria and the National Project
1. The End of Northern Primacy
2. North & Military Dominance, 1979 -1999
3. The Second Obasanjo Regnum, 1999 - ?
4. Goodluck Jonathan’s Presidency, 2010-2015?
5. Northern Diversity: 70-75 million population
6. Islam and Pluralism
7. Education Stagnation, Economic Decline
8. Political Manipulation of Religion
9. Military/Security/Criminal Networks
10. Youths without Jobs, Education, Hope
11. Global Jihadism/Counter-Insurgency
12. Centenary of the Amalgamation: 2014