CAS TECO Incheon , Korea 16 November 2009 THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign and Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Toward Better Understanding of Typhoon Life Cycle T.
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CAS TECO Incheon , Korea 16 November 2009 THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign and Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Toward Better Understanding of Typhoon Life Cycle T. Nakazawa1 P. Harr2, S. C. Jones3, and D. Parsons4 JMA/MRI1,, NPS2, Univ. of Karsruhe3, WMO4 The background picture was taken by Yomiuri Shinbun on Sep. 11 2008 THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY TCS-08, TC formation, structure, intensification, satellite validation, targeted observations EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada [DLR Falcon, NRL P-3] PROBEX WMO WCRP/WWRP Asian/Indian Typhoon Monsoon TH08 U.S. ONR/NSF TCS-08 SoWMex [NRL P-3, WC-130] Landfall Japan Palau THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY Extra observations and targeted observations to improve track prediction EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada [DLR Falcon, NRL P-3] PROBEX WMO WCRP/WWRP Asian/Indian Typhoon Monsoon TH08 U.S. ONR/NSF TCS-08 SoWMex [NRL P-3, WC-130] Landfall Japan Additional PalauTargeting Component at DLR and FZK, Germany THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts Additional Extratropical Transition Upgraded Russian Components at DLR and FZK, Germany Radiosonde Network for IPY Extratropical transition, downstream impacts, targeted observations EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada [DLR Falcon, NRL P-3] PROBEX WMO WCRP/WWRP Asian/Indian Typhoon Monsoon TH08 U.S. ONR/NSF TCS-08 SoWMex [NRL P-3, WC-130] Landfall Japan Palau Operations and Observation Strategies Okinawa Japan Driftsonde center, Operations center, Taiwan Aircraft locations, and aircraft operations centers Guam Monterey, CA Driftsonde Balloon release, Hawaii THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) THORPEX (The Observing-System Research and Predictability Experiment) And Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments (TCS-08) Collaborative Efforts Operations: Aircraft • Mission objectives – NRL P-3 • TC formation, structure, intensification, TUTT structure, targeting for formation, extratropical transition – WC-130J • TC formation, structure, intensification, satellite validation, targeting for formation and track, extratropical transition – FALCON • Typhoon targeting, extratropical transition, targeting, ridge-building, tropical water vapor transport – DOTSTAR • Typhoon targeting Tropical Circulation Systems by the numbers… • During August – September, there were 12 total systems > TD intensity over the western North Pacific – 4 typhoons, 4 tropical storms, 4 TDs • 51 TCS systems – With a few recycled a time or two • 11 systems in which aircraft missions were flown – 4 typhoons, 1 TD, 1 ex-TS, 5 others • 72% of all missions were flown on the 4 typhoon cases – 6 Nuri, 28 Sinlaku, 5 Hagiput, 15 Jangmi (54/75 = 72%) Operations by the numbers… • Over 500 aircraft mission flight hours – 216 C-130, 179 P-3, 83 Falcon, 37 DOTSTAR • 76 missions – 25 Falcon, 23 C-130, 21 P-3, 7 DOTSTAR • 7 airfields – Andersen AB, Guam; NAF Atsugi, Japan; Kadena AB, Japan; Taiwan, Yokota AB, Japan; MCAS Iwakuni, Japan; Misawa AB, Japan TY Nabi, 29 Aug – 8 Sep, 2005 T-PARC/TCS-08 Components Midlatitude operating region NRL P-3, FALCON Extratropical Transition (ET – recurvature), Downstream Impacts Japan, Atsugi, NAF ET characteristics, forcing of downstream impacts, tropical/midlatitude interactions, extratropical cyclogenesis Subtropical operating region Driftsonde, NRL P-3, DOTSTAR, WC-130 TC track characteristics, tropical/midlatitude interaction TC Intensification and structure change Recurvature, initiation of ET Okinawa, Kadena AFB Guam, Andersen AFB Tropical operating region Driftsonde, NRL P-3, DOTSTAR, WC-130 Tropical Measurements Large-scale circulation, deep convection, monsoon depressions, tropical waves, TC formation TY Sinlaku (TCS-033 / TD15W) Coverage 28 Missions • 8 Structure – P-3, C-130, DOTSTAR • 6 Targeting – Falcon • 14 ET – P-3, C-130, Falcon • • • • • • • • • • • • 09/0030 – 09/1045 09/2100 – 10/1225 10/2043 – 11/1828 12/1138 – 12/2318 13/2330 – 14/0555 15/2135 – 16/0205 16/0500 – 16/0800 16/2044 –17/1115 17/2224 – 18/0720 18/2235 – 19/0725 20/0156 – 20/1206 20/2205 – 21/0205 First simultaneous observations of TY-core, TY-environment and distant sensitive region (“Sinlaku”) Joint mission of: • Falcon (yellow) • C-130 (black) • DOTSTAR (red) EPS track forecasts JMA Typhoon EPS JMA Medium-Range EPS 2008.09.09 06UTC ini +132h 2008.09.08 012UTC ini +216h ECMWF EPS 2008.09.08 12UTC +120h GFS EPS 2008.09.09 12UTC ini +168h Numerical Guidance Products Sensitivity Guidance: Obs. Time 09/11 00Z ECMWF NOGAPS JMA UM ETKF UK ETKF COAMPS Sinlaku by NCEP GFS 9/10 00UTC 500 hPa ASYMMETRIC STREAMF’N DIFF 500 hPa ASYMMETRIC WIND DIFF +00 h +00 h BT NoObs +18 h +18 h AllObs Effect of drops: Strengthened vortex, decreased RMW Strengthened subtropical ridge, inducing northwestward flow Courtesy of S. Aberson Sinlaku by ECMWF 9/10 00UTC AllObs DOTSTAR All w/Cycle BT Center NoObs Center AllObs NoObs DOTSTAR All w/Cycle (Courtesy of Dr. Martin Weissmann) SINLAKU by JMA 9/11 12UTC Difference in Z and Wind AllObs (m) Rapid recurvature and moving BT 850-1000 hPa m/s NoObs Better track forecast at the beginning Stronger wind (about +6m/s) Red : With Drop ( Test ) Blue : Without Drop ( Cntl ) Black : JMA Besttrack m/s 400-700 hPa Test - Cntl Impacts of Sondes differ in models Why? Accepted/Rejected DS Data on 9/11 12UTC Not in Targeted Observation But maybe in the Systems (Analysis, Model) – First Guess TC Rejected Data – Assimilation of Data (accept/reject) near the TC center (Courtesy of Dr. Martin Weissmann) Tropical Cyclone Intensity/Structure Changes, Extratropical Transition, and Downstream Impacts TY Sinlaku recurves to move east-northeast under strong westerly shear Despite the strong shear, Sinlaku reintensified to typhoon strength as the ET process initiated. Aircraft missions for ET of Sinlaku on 5 consecutive days (3 days joint C-130, Falcon, P3 missions) Falcon P-3 C-130 22 UTC 17 September – 08 UTC 18 September Among ensemble members, standard deviation increased downstream of the Transitioning typhoon. Also, considerable variability existed among forecast sequences of downstream development as defined by local eddy kinetic energy budget calculations ET Time Firsts • First four plane operation in a WPAC TC • First systematic targeting operation in the WPAC – Comparison of several methods from a variety of operational and research organizations – Multiple aircraft – ECMWF/UKMO Data Targeting System • First systematic observations of full extratropical transition process – Multiple aircraft, land-based radar, MTSAT rapid-scan winds – Timed with satellite overpass • First operation of WC-130Js at 31,000 ft altitude except when penetrating a mature TC – Dropped sondes and AXBTs from high altitude – Timed with passage of polar-orbiting satellites for satellite intensity validation • First buoy drop in front of a WPAC TC – Two TCs – First time a category 5 TC passed over buoys dropped in its path Firsts • First operation of the Driftsonde in the Pacific – Launch from Hawaii – Dropsonde data retrieved and sent to GTS for use in operational numerical weather forecasting models • First use of the ELDORA radar in typhoons over the western North Pacific flight operations in: – – – – Cloud clusters Developing tropical cyclones Mature tropical cyclones Tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition • First Doppler wind and DIAL lidar observations for typhoon targeting and during extratropical transition Summary • Anomalous weather conditions to start – Non-existent monsoon trough – Anomalous low-level easterlies – Weak wave activity and strong upper-level cold lows (TUTT) dominated throughout August – 1 typhoon – However, many aircraft missions conducted for TC formation, wave structure, TUTT structure, subtropical cyclone development • Active September – 3 typhoons (1 super typhoon, i.e. cat 5) – 2 recurvature tracks • Successfully addressed all science objectives in field phase Future • Data Management – Distributed archive structure (http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/tparc_2008/ or http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp) – Aircraft dropwindsonde, flight-level data, FALCON lidar (wind and DIAL) QC complete and data available on data catalog – P-3 Lidar near complete; Driftsonde data being examined • Research Strategies – Diagnostic Studies of tropical cyclone formation, intensity, structure changes, extratropical transition, and downstream impacts – Validation of satellite-based estimates of tropical cyclone intensity and structure – High-resolution modeling: • Assimilation of Doppler radar/lidar data • Tropical cloud cluster characteristics and TC formation hypotheses • Extratropical transition processes – Predictability • Systematic evaluation of targeting techniques • Data impact studies • Analysis of ensemble prediction systems